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2004 KAC BASEBALL BLUE SHEET - WEEK 19


METS MORTGAGE THE FUTURE...



The Rangers in hockey, as well as the Knicks in the NBA, prove it on an annual basis, now another New York team has proven that patience is not a virtue in the Big Apple.

Despite being three games under .500 at the time, the New York Mets pulled the trigger on not one, but two major trades � mortgaging a large part of the future in the process. On the surface, it appears that the Mets have potentially assembled one of the majors best rotations in adding Kris Benson along with hard-throwing Victor Zambrano to go along with veterans Tom Glavine, Al Leiter, and Steve Trachsel. The hope is that pitching coach guru can get Benson to the next level while curing Zambrano�s frequent bouts of wildness. Peterson himself is on record as saying he can �fix� Zambrano in a matter of minutes.

To acquire Benson and Zambrano the Mets dealt left-handed AA pitcher Scott Kazmir to Tampa Bay and right-hander Matt Peterson to Pittsburgh. You may not of heard of Kazmir and Peterson as of yet, but the duo happens to be two of the hottest pitching prospects in all of baseball. Kazmir and Peterson were ranked as the #2 and #4 prospects in the Mets organization by Baseball America. The publications writers ranked Kazmir at #6, #28, #19, and #14 among all minor-league prospects. Considering BA ranked shortstop Kaz Matsui the Mets #1 �prospect�, in reality Kazmir and Peterson were #1 and #3 � the type of prospects that most organizations consider �untouchable�. The potential of the duo are so great that one wonders that if the Mets really wanted to deal them that they just try to get a Ben Sheets instead.

Does the team make that deal if a perennial pennant winner weren�t residing just across the river??? In other words would these be deals that a Billy Beane-type GM would make??? Kazmir has been likened to Josh Beckett, who proceeded him as a Houston area phenom � and throws mid-�90�s along with a nasty slider. Peterson had a 3.27 ERA in AA this year and also starred for Binghamton in last year�s playoffs.

Of course prospects are not sure things, the Mets thought they had the makings of a great rotation a decade ago with Paul Wilson, Bill Pulsipher, and Jason Isringhausen � all three blew out their arms not long after arriving. But the quick fix also has it�s risks. Zambrano was on pace to become the first to lead his league in walks and hit batsman in two consecutive years since Randy Johnson in the early �90�s. Mets management is counting on the similarities not ending there. Benson has always had potential, but never an ERA below 3.85, and that was pre-Tommy John surgery. The smart money has Anna Benson faring better with her modeling career on Broadway than Benson pitching at Shea. Oh, and the Mets better make sure Benson re-ups at the end of the year or this will be a total disaster.

And for those of you waiting outside to add Benson to your autograph collection, you�re going to have to be patient (unlike the Mets). Kris and Anna are kind of busy downstairs�

The Mets aren�t the only team I�m calling out at the trade deadline, there were some other questionable dealings � including�

Dodgers � I�m not that overly impressed with Brad Penny to begin with, but perhaps that�s just because he burned me the two weeks I play him in DC. However, he was spectacular in his LA debut pitching eight shutout innings and allowing only two hits, bringing his ERA on the year down to a spiffy 2.97. However the Dodgers now have a gaping hole behind the plate with team leader Paul Lo Duca departed, and have also broken up the best relief corps in the game by also giving up deluxe set-up man Guillermo Mota. The catching situation may get so desperate that outfielder Jayson Werth may even see time behind the dish, although acquiring Colorado�s Charles Johnson is also still a possibility. Still, it�s downright puzzling to address one weakness while hurting what was two strengths, especially after the team rolled to a 20-6 record in July. If LA falters from this point forward new GM Paul DePodesta will not hear the end of it. LA also changed center fielders in separate deals, getting rid of oft-injured leadoff man Dave Roberts for veteran Steve Finley.

Red Sox �Turns out that Nomar Garciaparra�s marriage to Mia Hamm marked the end to his tenure in Boston, from refusing to shave his head as a form of team unity (in the name of wedding pictures) to an allegation by the organization that Nomar actually hurt his Achilles playing soccer in the off-season. And you thought Teresa Kerry came out swinging this week??? Whatever the case, the one-time (and I mean one-time) Boston icon is now at least temporarily a Chicago Cub icon, getting dealt in a blockbuster four-team deal. Now GM Theo Epstein must pray that Nomar doesn�t complete his heel-turn and become a Yankee DH/First Baseman next spring. The deal officially marks an end of the Big-Three/Four era of American League shortstops. And actually since his 2000 wrist injury, Nomar falls from the top shortstop echelon overall, as Michael Young and Edgar Renteria now must be ranked higher fantasy-wise than Nomar. Orlando Cabrera will prove not to be a bad replacement if he can rebound and start to approach last years #�s with the Expos (.297/95/17/80/24). And hopefully Cabrera�s significant other does not star for Columbia�s women�s soccer team. Boston also gets Dave Roberts from the Dodgers, but the bad news may be that Roberts and Cabrera�s stolen base totals may go down drastically on the sabermetric-crazy Red Sox.

Cubs � Even if Nomar isn�t able to play every day and if he doesn�t resign (I�m sure the Angel/Dodger rumors will re-ermerge), the Cubs didn�t give up a lot to fill what had been a weak area at shortstop. If nothing else, Nomar will hit 100 points higher than the departed Alex Gonzalez. Adding a relief pitcher in August is also a possibility but not a necessity. The Cubs are beginning to get in gear and if they get the Wild Card (as favored) they will get bullpen help in October in the form of one of the existing starters (I�m guessing Greg Maddux or Matt Clement), that ain�t too bad. Nomar owners had to be a happy with the timing, as the Cubs visited Colorado this week � although I expect they were expecting a little better than 3-14 with no homers).

Marlins � I don�t see them returning to the playoffs this year, but you have to like the team making a forward deal nonetheless. Suddenly there is hope that Guillermo Mota can become a closer, and in fact is getting a shot this week with Armando Benitez on the shelf. It would not be unreasonable to see Mando get dealt in the off-season. LoDuca fills a definite need behind the plate and will help what is still a nice pitching staff. Juan Encarncion also returns to Florida while Hee Seop Choi also goes west. The fact that Choi has been dealt twice in less than a year speaks volumes that there is not a lot of potential.

Yankees � Many are putting the Yanks into the trade loser category, and if you are predicating things solely on not landing Randy Johnson then I can�t argue. But although the future may prove Estaban Loaiza to be a one-year wonder, I think getting Loaiza for Jose Contreras (an 1 2/3 IP, 8 ER outing waiting to happen) and cash (that�s no object to George) is an upgrade. A rotation of Javier Vazquez, Mussina, Kevin Brown, and now Loaiza is nothing to sneeze at, and should be able to hold up against Oakland and Boston�s staffs. At the very worst, Loaiza will eat up some valuable middle innings in the post-season. And if you�re really worried about getting that unstoppable staff ace, don�t worry � Johan Santana will be out there in a couple years.

White Sox � Many are calling the Loaiza/Contreras trade even, but I�m not. It wasn�t like the White Sox were out of the AL Central race, although they may be the way Santana�s going with the Twins. If the Sox can get a quality FA with the extra money acquired from the Yanks it won�t sound as bad.

Devil Rays � Fantasy speaking, Kazmir doesn�t sound potentially as good in Tampa as in Shea Stadium, but what he will eventually be is the Ben Sheets of the D-Rays. More is going to be need in St. Pete pitching-wise, but it�s a good start.

Giants � Put them in the category as a team that really needed to do something but didn�t. Is there anyone on that team relevant besides Bonds and Jason Schmidt (no I don�t mean Pedro Feliz). Internally, they did move Dustin Hermanson out of the rotation and made him the closer. The Expos tried the same thing a few years back and it didn�t work out.

Astros � Unlike the Reds and Brewers, Houston has at least stayed within striking distance in the Wild Card race, five games behind the Cubs. With that in mind, the much discussed Carlos Beltran deal did not materialize.


CDM ADDS/DROPS (FA's IN BOLD)

ADDS - 1. Brad Lidge RP-HOU (216) � Was expecting even more action.
2. Mark Teixeira 1B-TX (102) � Has been a great year as far as sifting through first basemen are concerned.
3. Oliver Perez SP-PIT (61)
� Finally getting some respect in the challenge game, it took a two-start week to do it.
4. Carlos Guillen SS-DET (49) � Would be an MVP candidate if the Tigers were contending.
5. Travis Hafner � 1B-CLE (40) � Not bad support with TX on the FA board.
6. Adrian Beltre 3B-LA (35) � The slump hasn�t happened yet.
7. Chris Carpenter SP-STL (32) � Makes the list for the first time.
8(T). Marcus Giles 2B-ATL (28)
� Back on the good list.
8(T). Bobby Abreu OF-PHI (28) � Long overdue recognition.
10. Victor Martinez C-CLE (27) � Tribe brought out the heavy lumber in Toronto.


DROPS �

1. Roy Halladay SP-TOR (113) � Hope to make some starts in September, what�s the use??
2. Matt Herges RP-SF (72) � Finally out of the Giants closer picture.
3. Frank Thomas 1B-CWS (52) � September return doubtful.
4. Arthur Rhodes SP-OAK (51) � Not only out of the closers role, but now on the shelf till September.
5. Billy Wagner RP-PHI (46) � Any time you hear the word rotator cuff it does not bode well. Those who picked up Tim Worrell should benefit at least this month.
6. Junior Spivey 2B-MIL (44) � Underwent surgery last week, officially done for the year.
7. Brandon Webb SP-AZ (27) � A regular on this list since April.
8. Juan Gonzalez OF-KC (26) � Ditto.
9(T). Angel Berroa SS-KC (25) � Ditto III.
10. Matt Morris SP-STL (25) � Complete game shutout sandwiched by 15 ER in 2 1/3 IP, OUCH!!!


WEEK 19 PREVIEW �

7 GAMES: Everyone in the AL except Detroit and Seattle, PHI, COL, SF, MTL

HOME: ANH, BOS, CLE, OAK, SEA, TX, ATL, CHC, CIN, MTL, NYM, PHI, PIT

AWAY: BAL, DET, KC, MN, NYM, TB, AZ, COL, HOU, LA, STL, SD, SF

TWO STARTS: Curt Schilling, Esteban Loiaza (v. TOR and SEA), Kevin Brown, Jake Westbrook, Tim Hudson, Josh Beckett, Carlos Zambrano (home v. SD/LA), Randy Johnson (at MTL and NYM � but will he care??), Jason Jennings (Rockies starter on the road, and isn�t he pretty good at Jeopardy??).

CDM FA LIST (recommended purchases in bold)

C � Paul LoDuca (1030) � Homers in his first game as a Marlin.
1B � Carlos Delgado (1480) � Whiffed in six consecutive AB's this week.
2B � Pokey Reese (530) - Out until mid-August.
3B � Edgardo Alfonzo (900) � What did I say about Giants not named Barry or Jason??
SS � Brian Roberts (610) � Only eight steals since June 1.
OF � Lance Berkman (1390)
� Not the fantasy must-have he once was, still hits .300 but has settled into being a 25, instead of 40 home run guy.
OF � Hideki Matsui (880) � His stats are actually better than Berkman�s this year.
SP � Kerry Wood (1190) � ERA standing at 2.97, career high was 3.20 last year.
SP � Jefff Suppan (820)
� Another pitching concern for the Cards as Suppan did a pretty good Rick Ankiel impression (10 walks in 4+ innings!!) last week.
RP - Trevor Hoffman (1230) � Padres (unlike the Dodgers) were smart not breaking up their bullpen. TH51 is still money in the ninth.






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