It appeared that Barry Bonds was becoming somewhat of an afterthought as far as the fantasy baseball landscape was concerned. Sure he was still hitting is home runs, but not quite at the pace of the past few years. Not to mention most of his homers were coming with no one on base. As much as Barry may not had been fond of teammate Jeff Kent, his absence seemed to be hurting.
But guess who is the MLB home run leader??? Good old Barry, with 33 on the season including a dramatic clout on his 39th birthday last week. That gives Bonds 646 home runs on the year, so he should pass Willie Mays sometime in September. Bonds is on pace to hit 17-18 yet this year, although I would like to see him hit an even 20 just to be funny. How many flashbulbs would pop at Pac Bell when Barry runs the bases with 6-6-6 showing on the big board??? Not to mention how epic it would be when he points his fingers skyward upon reaching home plate. You could make a case for Bonds calling his immediate retirement once he hits that number.
But lets go with the conservative figure and give Barry the 17-18 he is on pace for. Even though the Giants have basically salted the division, they will still be in a heated battle with Altanta for home field advantage should the two meet in the LCS round � thence Barry should not see too many off days. That would give Bonds 51 HR�s for the season and 664 for the career � and also leave Bonds another 51 HR campaign away from tying Babe Ruth. Since Bonds appears to have a chip on his shoulder on the Ruth mark, I wouldn�t be surprised if he manages to best that by the end of 2004.
But even if Bonds falls slightly short, a healthy season (46-47 HR�s) would put Barry in the neighborhood of 710, leaving him with 46 more to best Hank Aaron by the end of 2005 (and 23 away from Aaron�s NL mark of 733). That would be very similar to the situation during the 1973 season which began with Aaron 41 HR�s away from the Ruth record. Hank got 40 that year before getting the record-tier on Opening Day in �74, then promptly breaking it three games later in the Braves home opener. If Bonds can get the job done by the end of �05, then he can maneuver himself to become finish things of as an AL DH for �06, where he would still only be 41. Hank Aaron played his final two years in a similar capacity in Milwaukee (where he began his Braves career) and tacked on 22 home runs to his total. If Bonds could just hit 22 a year for two years that would put him at an even 800 � plus get him above 3000 hits (currently sitting at 2,555 and averaging 150 per year).
And how does Bonds �03 compare to the previous two models. The slugging percentage (one of my favorite categories for fantasy purposes) has slipped to .740, from .799 last year and .863 during the 73 home run season. That would still stand as his third highest total in that department in his career. Barry�s OBP has fallen from .582 to .509, those would be the two highest totals in those departments. Likewise, the BA is down from .370 to .331, but again that would go down as the two highest career totals. Barry is still first in all of baseball in OBP, slugging percentage, and home runs, as well as sixth in BA. RBI is his one fantasy weakness, he comes into this week ranked 26th. Also Barry is being pitched to more � 95 BB�s in 89 games this year as opposed to a record breaking 198 in just 143 games last year.
Yes Barry has slipped, but almost anyone else in the game will take his numbers right now � and is in as good of shaped as players 10 years younger. Lets just hope his dad, Willie Mays, and Hank Aaron will all be around when #756 splashes in McCovey Cove� That big thud you just heard was the housecleaning in Cincinnati with GM Jim Bowden and manager Bob Boone both being shown the door, which was of little surprise. And sure enough it didn�t take long for changes to occur on the field. First to go was closer Scott Williamson who now becomes a set-up man to Byung-Hyun Kim in Boston. Williamson had done a steady, but not spectacular job this season so he was not irreplaceable. Red Sox brass has made it clear that Kim is their man for the ninth inning, adding that he has done an �extraordinary job� thus far while stating that Williamson chances of closing for now are �remote�. And doesn�t it seem like every year Kim becomes a central figure in the CDM Challenges in one way or another. And every year you can also count on a heavily used reliever in CDM to be demoted to set-up status due to a trade (or demotion due to an existing reliever being traded). Unless you don�t have other options I wouldn�t release Williamson quite yet � as we all know Kim can be Smoltz/Gagne-like for a long stretch before suddenly becoming combustible. Also, should Kim repeat his 2001 World Series act in an LCS series v. the Yanks (I see that coming a mile away) he would fit in perfectly as another in a long line of Red Sox goats. Taxi Willie for now and let this play out for a week or two if you have another closer on taxi. Others may be soon to follow - Last week in this column I trumpeted Jose Guillen, who went on to go 11-31 with four home runs and 11 RBI over an eight game period. Now Guillen was mentioned in trade rumors involving the Seattle Mariners over the weekend. Also, Aaron Boone becomes much more tradable with his dad out of the picture. Seattle becomes a definitely possibility there as well, where he could join his brother as the team just happens to have an opening at third base with the struggling Jeff Cirillo on the DL.
One trade possibility that would send someone�s stock soaring would be if Atlanta were to pull the trigger for Baltimore ace Sidney Ponson, who has yet to ink a contract with the O�s. As it is now Sid is not bad with a 14-5 record with a 3.64 ERA and 1.28 ratio. Put him in the hands of Leo Mazzone with the Brave offense behind him and he becomes a bonifide ace. 2B Marcus Giles has been identified as someone who could be pawned off in such a trade, although I don�t quite see that happening the way he's going. Fresh off their trade of Kenny Lofton and Aramis Ramirez, the Pirates could be looking to unload OF Brian Giles and C Jason Kendall as well. Both players happen to be from San Diego, and that could be a possible destination for both. The Padres are indeed interested, and would stand to spark some additional interest to go along with moving into the new ballpark next year. However SD is obviously not in contention this year � so I imagine the two parties would be better to wait until the off-season to make that deal. Should Giles and/or Kendall wind up there I imagine the fantasy impact will be minimal. The new park is slated to be downtown (closer to the ocean), so I suspect the venue would be somewhat like PacBell Park. Mirror, mirror on the wall, now who�s the best Oakland pitcher of them all??? A year ago at this time I cemented Barry Zito to that status, then switched to Mark Mulder earlier this season. Now the mantle switches to Tim Hudson, sporting a 2.60 ERA along with a 1.05 ratio. Hudson has held the opposition to one earned run or less in six of his last seven starts, with a 1.17 ERA/.78 ratio during that span. Also, so far so good for Rich Harden, who has only allowed two ER and an even 1.00 ration in his first 14 innings of work, although he has only struck out seven. Meanwhile there have been struggles for Barry Zito (giving up 35 hits over three starts, then walking six in a game) and Mark Mulder. But Mulder pitched a gem last week while Zito stifled Anaheim for seven innings this past Monday.
All that was missing in Montreal was a keg of O�Keefe�s on the infield as the Braves and Expos combined for 77 runs as the teams split a four game series, with the A-T-L scoring 43 times. One shudders to think how this could had wound up had this been played in the P.R. Leading the way for Atlanta were two players thought to be slumping just a couple of weeks ago. Brian Giles would hit four consecutive doubles in the Sunday game (only the ninth such player in MLB history to do so), which only served as a prelude to the following night when Giles would belt two home runs, drive in six, and even steal a base. Giles then goes 5-5 the following night to give him nine consecutive hits. He has blown up beyond my wildest imagination. Catcher Javy Lopez has gotten even hotter, going 16-36 with 6 HR and a mind-boggling 19 RBI over a ten game stretch. To give you an idea on the season Lopez is having, he now has 29 HR and 71 RBI in 81 games (297 AB�s). Multiply that by two and you have a Barry Bonds type season. In fact Javy�s .679 slugging percent is just a heartbeat behind Bonds. Rafael Furcal also chips in nine runs scored while recording 25 AB�s in the four games, Alfonso Soriano-type stuff. There were highlights on the Expo side as well, Shortstop Orlando Cabrera had a six-RBI outing while Vladimir Guerrero showed that he may be back with a two HR night, including a shot that traveled 502 feet to the facing of the middle deck of the Toilet Bowl. Said Atlanta pitcher Mike Hampton afterwards �He hit it like an f�n driver.� The late Willie Stargell is the only other player to reach the middle deck with a 535 foot blast while Darryl Strawberry and Henry Rodriguez have been credited with hitting 525 foot bombs down the line that both hit the toilet bowl rim, more than 150 feet above the playing surface. And finally getting back to pitching, John Smoltz is now at 38 saves keeping him on pace to best the single season record in that category.
Give a call to Tampa Bay�s Carl Crawford, who is hitting .348 (33-95) since June 28, including ten stolen bases. Oakland�s Miguel Tejada hit his first home run in over a month, then revealed that he�s been dealing with a bad shoulder. Richard Hidalgo (who once hit 44 HR in 2000) has picked up his power game in July with seven HR, and is hitting .323 on the year. Phil Nevin has also made a return from his separated shoulder back in Spring Training, keep on eye on him as a possible bargain in �04. Some other brief profiles include�
Aaron Gueil � What in the name of Larry Walker is up with these Canadians lately??? The Royal outfielder is hitting .281 with nine home runs and 24 RBI in just 45 games. He�s a nice story but here�s the red flag � This is his second MLB season and he turns 31 in October. That tells us that he has never been a highly regarded prospect and that there won�t be much upside from this point forward.
Raul Mondesi � Most observers always had the feeling that he didn�t quite have that clean-shaven Yankee etiquette. The final straw came in the nationally televised Sunday Night game where Mondesi showered and left after being pinch-hit for. Being close to the trade deadline the Yanks quickly found a taker in Arizona, as D-Back brass feels that he will be in a far better comfort zone in the NL West. Mondesi has been a BA disappointment (sub-.250) in recent years but still helps out in the power department (16 HR, 49 RBI in �03)Among those the Yanks get in return are reliever Brett Prinz, who had high-90�s heat before blowing his elbow out a few weeks back.
Greg Myers � Another example on how some suddenly find a niche late in their careers. A two homer, 5 RBI night gives the 37 year-old 12 HR and 43 RBI in just 230 AB�s while hitting .335, that makes him a borderline top-ten backstop right now. Myers is a career .256 hitter with only 72 career HR�s prior to this year. Myers has bounced around 7 MLB teams in his career with a career high of 329 AB�s in 1996. Myers has never seen a defensive inning of his career anywhere but behind the plate.
Bill Mueller - Has become another member of the Red Sox wreckin' crew, belting three home runs (including grand slams from both sides) along with nine RBI in a single game. Has become a solid (.330/59/13/54) four category player.
Roy Halladay � Even more noteworthy than his current 15-game winning streak is the fact that he has gone a couple times on three days rest. The last pitcher to go regularly on three days rest was Kansas City�s Kevin Appier in 1995, which caught up to him after a couple of months. If Halladay goes on three days rest regularly down the stretch, that would have him starting twice on the majority of those weeks.
Roy Oswalt - Tweaked his groin for what seems to be the umpteenth time this year, and as usual after an inning in his first scheduled appearance in a two-start week. In case you haven't already figured it out, don't bet the farm on his health for at least the rest of this year.
Now for the top 10 adds/drops for the week� Just as was the case this week, Baltimore and Toronto are the lone teams splitting between home and the road. The AL venues will be in the East while the NL is out west. That means BOS, CLE, DET, NYY, TB, CWS, MIL, HOU, STL, COL, SD, AZ, LA, and SF at home and ANA, MN, OAK, SEA, TX, KC, ATL, NYM, FLA, PHI, MTL, CHC, CIN and PIT. With re-scheduled doubleheaders included Baltimore plays eight times with, ANA, MN, TB, KC, CLE, and BOS playing seven. Everyone else (including the entire NL) plays six. Thanks for the hassle-free scheduling Katy Feeney. If you�re one of the seven CDM teams that still has Pat Burrell rotting on your taxi squad, consider him this week, as the Phils (along with what�s left of Pittsburgh) are in Colorado. The Braves also have a three game series in Milwaukee, scary to think how many runs they will tally at Miller Park � looks like Sheffield, Lopez, and Giles will again vie for Player of the Week honors. This will also be a strong pitching week with Jason Schmidt, Kerry Wood, Kevin Brown, Dontrelle Willis, Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, and possibly Woody Williams and Rich Harden going twice. Actually some good possibilities on the CDM Free Agent front this week. Next week offers Roy Halladay with Dontrelle Willis coming the week after that�
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OTHER NEWS
� #1 as expected, still on only 15 percent of the top 250 teams.
DROPS
� That ranks as an upset, it�s not like he�s out for the year.
WEEK 19 PREVIEW
1B � Jeff Bagwell (1640) � Delgado, Helton, and Giambi all better top-end values at this position.
2B � Orlando Hudson (440) � A far cry from Giles and Michael Young for el cheapo second sackers.
3B � Pedro Feliz (400) � Another cheap player who is not worth it, Morgan Ensberg a much better option at that range.
SS � Alex Gonzalez (830) � 20 HR pop but also a sub .250 hitter.
OF � Carlos Beltran (1480) � My secret weapon. Not the greatest power in the world but a monster in the other four categories who will push 50 SB�s. If you like studs not heavily owned Beltran may be your guy.
OF � Jose Guillen (430) � His pick-ups this week will be in the hundreds.
SP � Mark Buehrle (1140) � Heating up with six consecutive wins with a 2.73 ERA during that span. Season #�s (4.21/1.38) still too hefty for serious consideration.
SP � Miguel Batista (620) � Another lightly-owned special. 2.72 ERA with 97 K�s in 129 IP. Only 7 wins on the season but will be counted on heavily with the D-Backs right in the thick of the playoff chase.
RP � Mariano Rivera (1480) � 19 saves with a 1.51 ERA and .89 ratio in three months worth of work, obviously he�s back. Durability still a question though while Smoltz and Gagne provide more bang for the buck.