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2002 FANTASY BASEBALL WEEK 17 PREVIEW - WHAT TO WATCH FOR

Good news for the fantasy world, strike may not be until September...


The battlelines are now drawn for what may be baseball�s ultimate showdown for labor negotiations, with the likely strike date being September 16 � not coincidentally the day after players get paid, so they will miss one paycheck at the worst. I�m sure the sight of Donald Fehr and Bud Selig bickering on 9/11 poised to interrupt the season is going to make for monster public relations.

But the great news for fantasy players is that after this Sunday there will be at least eight weeks remaining in the season. That would mean 24 of the possible 26 weeks, pretty much a full slate. Even if the playoffs and World Series were to be scrapped, that is of no concern to the fantasy world. Look for the labor negotiations (as usual) to go down straight to the eleventh hour. I imagine that talks will not get serious until about 11:30 PM on 9/15. After that I imagine owners and players will be bunkered down for about four or five days. If an agreement is hammered out, the lost week is rescheduled, and the post-season slate begins one week later than usual for the second straight year. There will be three weeks to work with to save the post-season period, and if nothing is worked out � then look for the work stoppage to be in for a hard, cold winter, and to continue well into next spring�


***

PITCHING WOES

I have never intended to use this column to gripe about the fortunes or misfortunes of my own teams, be it CDM or otherwise. It�s not like anyone would care that much anyways. Unless whatever in the world I�m not doing right can somehow help someone else out there. For that reason I cannot resist this week. How is it possible for anyone playing in 2nd season Diamond Challenge to have a team ERA of four and a quarter, not to mention only 18 wins (out of approximately 50 starts since June 3)????? I mean besides having Glendon Rusch or Mike Hampton in your starting lineup??? Although the past few days of provided yet another classic example of how you just cannot trust any pitcher these days. Even when I am to get a solid performance out of Derek Lowe for once (8 IP, 2 hits, 1 BB, 1 ER @ TB) I get slammed with seven earnies out of Odalis Perez (who has come crashing back to earth) as Phil Nevin decides to emerge from his Ken Caminiti impersonation for one night. To make matters worse Brian Lawrence (who I took out to avoid what figured to be a rocky night for him) manages to pitch a complete game shutout!!!!! Again that�s SD @ LA, Lawrence v. Perez � you make the call�

And then I did manage to take advantage of what seemed to be another sure thing, the White Sox�s Mark Buehrle v. the Mike Sweeney-less Royals. And for eight innings things worked just fine with Buehrle allowing 2 earned runs, 5 hits and zero walks. Meanwhile the Sox rough Royal starter Dennis Byrd around, but are unable to muster more than three runs despite getting ten hits in the first six innings. So we head to white-knuckle time in the bottom of the ninth, which Buehrle is allowed to start after retiring the 9-1-2 batters with relative ease in the eighth. That meant Buehrle now gets the meat of the Royals order starting with Carlos Beltran. Just before delivering the first pitch, Beltran calls time to get Buehrle off his rhythm. �I hate when that happens� whines White Sox radio announcer John Rooney. Buehrle owners would hate what happened next even more. Sure enough, Beltran (who also cost me a division title, and major money, with a six-RBI day in the final game of 2001) takes Buehrle deep to the waterfall in left, tie game, manager comes out, thanks for playing. Once again, a no-decision is every bit as good as a loss. The next pitcher would fare no better, allowing a base hit and another homer as the Royals walk-off 5-3.

And then there is the wonderful advise I gave in this column two weeks ago � which was to kick disposed Marlin closer Vladamir Nunez to the curb and pick-up Expo lefty flame-thrower Scott Stewart ASAP. And about 40 percent of the top 250 teams in 2nd season (most of which don�t read this column) have picked up Stewart in the past three weeks.

Well the results in the past week is as follows:

Game 1 � Expos lose, Stewart doesn�t pitch.

Game 2 � With the score tied at three with a runner on second and one out in the ninth. Stewart comes in with the following results: Error (ball thrown away at third, runner scores), intentional walk, triple, single. Two hits, walk, and four runs scored (three earned.

Game 3 � Expos win 6-3, Colon pitches complete game.

Game 4 � Expos win 10-3, Vazquez with two other relievers mopping up.

Game 5 � Expos go into the ninth leading 8-3. After a three-run homer with one out, Stewart is brought in and promptly throws the ball away after a comebacker, then walks the second batter. Manager Frank Robinson then goes with righty Matt Herges, who allows both inherited runners, along with three more runs to score. Stewart�s line: a walk and two runs, one earned (his error leading to the second run).

Game 6 - Expos lose 6-3.

Game 7 � Apparently losing his grip on the closers role off the last two outings, Stewart is brought in to start the eighth in a 4-4 tie with the following results: Single, sacrifice, intentional walk, base hit (RBI), and a double (2 RBI). Stewart is then lifted and the inherited runner scores as well. 1/3 of an inning, and four base runners who all score. But look at the bright side, the sacrifice lowered Stewart�s ERA/Ratio for the week from infinity to 189 and 24 respectively.

Game 8 � Expos win 2-1, again Colon goes all the way.

Scary thing is that Stew doesn�t even get the LaTroy Hawkins award for the week, more on that later. Sorry about the rotten advice folks, guess Mike DeJean is better for the same price, even if the Brewers win about once a week�


***

DEAD TEAMS WALKING

The dumping of Cliff Floyd along with Ryan Dempster did wonders for the Florida Marlins morale, as they have lost all seven games since, being outscored 55-18 along the way. Josh Beckett did return from his blister problems but was smoked (5 IP, 6 ER at NYM) in his first game back. Although the batting order is still formable, the expectations of Mike Lowell, Preston Wilson, etc. should be tempered for the foreseeable future. The Brewers have stepped up their pace of futility (if that�s possible), being outscored 39-18 during a 1-7 homestand. Richie Sexson is still battling a hammy that may hamper his game for the foreseeable future, so jump on any pitcher with a start v. Milwaukee in the foreseeable. Same goes with Tampa Bay over in the AL.

Now for some other players making news�

Raul Ibanez (KC) � The flavor of the week, exploding for 2 HR and 13 RBI in a three-game span, as journeyman (30 years old) is showing his stuff as an everyday player � now sitting at .283/36/12/54 in 240 AB�s. At a CDM salary of 600, that compares favorably with Austin Kearns (.288/39/8/34 also in 240 AB�s) at the same price. Last year (when Raul was twice designated for assignment), Ibanez went .280/44/13/54 in 279 AB�s. So you�re looking at a decent power hitter when given the chance. Raul is also seeing some time at first base in place of Mike Sweeney (bad back), which should give him eligibility there as well in the near future.

Adam Dunn (CIN) � Stolen bases suddenly becoming part of his game, swiping four bags in a two-game period, an unexpected bonus. AD now has twelve steals on the year � 20 of those would be nice to go along with his prodigious power.

Odalis Perez (LA) � Here is the statistical proof to Odalis� slump. Last four appearances, 23 1/3 IP, 20 ER. That is crashing back to earth.

Oliver Perez (SD) � Two months ago I mention that there is a ton of pitching talent coming up in the Padre chain. Tankersley may be an unfinished project, but the 20 year-old Perez looks ready now, with 40 K�s in 37 2/3 IP, along with a 3.35 ERA and 1.30 ratio. That includes a rocky outing in St. Louis where he gave up 7 earnies in 6 IP.

Torii Hunter (MN) � There hasn�t been a lot out of the suspension front this year, but the Gary Sheffield scenario may be rearing his head with Torii. That is, Torii is too good to leave on the bench � but is facing a sure to be appealed suspension for returning fire at Cleveland hurler Danys Baez. And the evidence is not circumstansial, as is the case when the pitcher throws at the hitter. The suspension (projected to be at five games) is due to be handed down Monday, and will be appealed until the first hangnail Torii suffers (sure to be on a Monday).

Jacque Jones (MN) � Showing signs of breaking out of his 9-73 slump with a pair of three-hit games in Cleveland.

Kevin Millwood (ATL) � Signs of the circa �99 version (2.68 and a ratio just under 1) of Millwood are definitely manifesting itself, with a six-game winning streak along with a 3.68/1.17.

Eric Gagne (LA) � When it comes to closers, you�re only as good as the team, and the Dodgers went 1-7 on an eight game homestand, giving the Goon only one opportunity to strut his stuff since the break.

John Smoltz (ATL) � Seven saves and a win this month gives Smoltz 34 on the year to take over the MLB lead. 20 saves and a win in his last 21 appearances, no mop-ups for him. But don�t get too comfortable with him as a closer, Smoltz wants to return to the rotation next year, in that case his fantasy value will plummet. Also, Smoltz is an old hockey guy from Michigan. Next bench-clearing incident between the Dodgers and Braves, Smoltz and the Goon need to drop the gloves and go at it. No one can break it up beside the umps, only after one gets the upper hand of course.

Alfonzo Soriano (NYY) � You choose the AL MVP. Go with either Soriano (.318/76/25/61/25), Ichiro (.357/70/4/31/23), Giambi (.322/63/24/78/2), or Arod (.297/73/31/80/6). Arod gets dumped only for not being on a contender so I�ll go with position scarcity and baseball�s best five-category stud with Soriano.

Matt Morris (STL) � Pitched eight strong innings, striking out eight and allowing only one run and getting the win. That followed a no-decision where Morris allowed one ER in seven innings, by far his best two outings since Darryl Kile�s passing.

Barry Zito (OAK) � Has now won 16 straight games at home, that is not bad.

Jason Simontacchi (STL) � If Harry Caray were still alive just so we could have the joy of him trying to pronounce his name. �That Sim-on-tach-tach-tach-he is pretty good�. Actually Jason (who was pitching in a Italian pro league a couple years back � and no this is NOT soccer) is 7-1 with a 3.04 ERA, but only 29 K�s in 74 IP. A nice plug in for the Cards but someone who will be figured out by opposing hitters in time. Not recommended.


***

It turned out that the Tigers were one of the teams reportedly with money problems, and the Devil Rays have been late with deferred payments with some players. It�s hard to believe the Tigers are really in financial trouble as owner Mike Ilitch has the Red Wings (with one of hockey�s highest payrolls along with his pizza chain. Nevertheless, could it be that the Tigers and D-Rays getting contracted, with the Expos moving to Detroit (being renamed the Tigers, and no doubt moving to the AL) ???

My theory of the Monday following the All-Star break being a monster offensive day did not quite materialize this year, with 151 runs being scored in the 16 games that day � an average of 4.72 runs per team. We will see how things go this Saturday, which will again feature no. 4 and 5 pitchers.

A NL heavy week in Week 17 with FL, MTL, PHL, CHC, PIT, STL, AZ, HOU, SD, and SF all playing seven times. Tampa Bay and Boston (thanks to a doubleheader) will be the only AL teams playing seven, while the Yankees and Indians only play five times. Colorado is on the road all week (AZ, MIL) while Houston is at home (MIL, PIT) for their seven. BOS, CLE, CWS, SEA, NYM, HOU, AZ, SF are the teams playing at home all week. With seven home games v. TB and BAL, the Red Sox have the plum schedule of the bunch. Potential two-start pitchers include the following � Roy Halladay, Tim Hudson, Mark Buehrle, Derek Lowe, Greg Maddux, Kerry Wood, Wade Miller, Curt Schilling, Odalis Perez, Brian Lawrence, Bartolo Colon, Tom Glavine, Vicente Padilla, and Matt Morris.

Nothing special on CDM's free agent list this week, which is as follows...

C 14 SANTIAGO, BENITO SF 620000
1B 109 KLESKO, RYAN SD 1300000
2B 214 WALKER, TODD CIN 890000
3B 301 JONES, CHIPPER ATL 1740000
SS 414 HERNANDEZ, JOSE MLW 880000
OF 509 GILES, BRIAN PIT 1580000
OF 574 SIERRA, RUBEN SEA 770000
SP 808 CLEMENS, ROGER NYY 1240000
SP 858 ASTACIO, PEDRO NYM 780000
RP 1229 *NUNEZ, VLADIMIR FLO 750000



LATROY F. HAWKINS AWARD

Not even Yankee closer Danny Almonte, I mean Mariano Rivera is immune to the madness, as he was brought in the ninth Sunday to protect a 7-4 lead in Cleveland, which is a near 100 percent certainty. Not on this day however as his disastrous save opp goes as follows: single, single, fielder�s choice (run scores), single, double (RBI), intentional walk, strikeout, and then a game-losing walk-off grand slam to someone (Bill Selby) that no one ever heard of. Five hits, a walk, and six earned runs in 2/3 of an inning. Nothing�s sacred.




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