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2002 FANTASY BASEBALL WEEK 15 PREVIEW - WHAT TO WATCH FOR

Comparisons to ponder at the break...


A week and a half ago I was wondering where all the offense went. On Friday, June 21st, a measly 104 runs scored in a full slate of 15 games. That accounted for an average just under 3.5 runs per team. Three of the higher scoring games that day were in Houston, Colorado, and Milwaukee. That accounts for two bandboxes and a horrid Brewer pitching staff. A Yankees-Padres tilt also went 9-1 that day. The other 11 games went as follows: 5-3, 3-1, 4-3, 3-2, 2-0, 3-4, 3-2, 4-3, 4-1, 3-0, 2-1. Sounds more like the World Cup round of 16 than the steroid-crazed (alleged) world of MLB. This past Tuesday was another story altogether, as 197 tallies were recorded in 16 games (including a TOR/BOS double-dip). That translated to 6.16 runs per team, that�s more like it. Also 62 home runs were recorded, a new record for a single day of baseball. And that includes the old days where all of MLB�s 16-20 teams would all play doubleheaders on Sunday. Included in the onslaught was 18 San Francisco runs in Colorado, where scoring is the rage again, as well as a 17-9 slugfest between the Tigers and White Sox that saw twelve home runs hit (tying an MLB single-game record). The Mets, Yankees, Cardinals, and even the Brewers would see double-digits as well. We�ll see if MLB can improve on that the Monday after the All-Star Break, a day that traditionally features no. 5 starters.

But the real story, at least in dealing with the fantasy perspective � is once again relief pitching. Thanks primarily to Eric Gagne, many Diamond Challenge teams are already well into triple-figures in the saves category. Gagne (30 saves, 1.27 ERA, .64 ratio, 60 K�s in 42.2 IP) continues to be in the sick zone, and is still on pace to break Bobby Thigpen�s single-season save record. At 500K Gagne has easily become the biggest starting pitcher listed factor in CDM Diamond Challenge history. Special thanks to manager Jim Tracy for deeking fantasy owners everywhere with his �closer-by-committee� spiel during Spring Training. The listed starting pitcher who appeared to be the safest bet in March, Kelvim Escobar, has not been a total disaster with 14 saves, but is not even on pace to reach Gagne�s current total by season�s end. Not to mention the shaky 4.54 ERA and 1.54 ratio.

Another reliever currently on a roll is John Smoltz, who has played a huge role in the Braves recent tear with 14 consecutive saves since June 1, and is just two behind Gagne with 28 saves � paying huge dividends to those who stuck with him during his early season struggles. Everyday Eddie Guardado blew his third save of the season in spectacular fashion this week, but with 25 saves and a sub-1000 salary is still mandatory material for CDM teams, along with Mike Williams (23 saves). Milwaukee�s Mike DeJean hasn�t had nearly the opportunities of other closers, but has not hurt too bad with his 530 salary, converting 14 of 17 save opps. At that price a 30-save season would be more than adequate. And then there is newly-cemented Expo closer Scott Stewart � whose combination of salary (490K) and stats (1.79 ERA, .97 ratio, 44 K�s in 40 IP) will make him a monster pick-up this weekend.

And then there are those who are struggling, and it doesn�t take much for a manager to consider auditioning others. Vladimir Nunez (FL) has now been touched for earned runs in six of his last ten appearances, and Braden Looper may be getting a chance any day now. Byung-Hyun Kim had another spectacular meltdown in getting blasted two days in a row, including a walk-off grand slam to a backup catcher � which BHK can now add to his list of game losing home runs. BHK did get the ultimate vote of confidence from manager Bob Brenly over the weekend in the form of being one of six D-Backs selected to the All-Star Game. Cards closer Jason Isringhausen did return from a two-week absence, but has not been the same, giving up 7 ER in his last 2.2 IP. There was also some awful luck for Ugueth Urbina owners this week when he had two tailor made would-be save opportunities in a day-night doubleheader except that the team decided to give UUU �the day off�, giving journeyman Alan Embree the saves in both games. We will see if there�s anything more to UUU�s availability in upcoming games.


***



Since we reached exactly the halfway point of the season this past Sunday, we not take a look at a number of statistical impromptu matchups. We begin with a battle between journeyman Joe Randa and perennial all-star Chipper Jones (stats thru 6/30)...

BA
R
HR
RBI
SB
RANDA
.300
34
8
52
2
CHIPPER
.319
48
9
52
5

That is amazing, two third baseman, one is a consensus top-15 fantasy player while the other is a late round fill-in. Chipper gets the edge in runs and a slight edge in BA. But as far as homers and RBI's are concerned it is a dead heat. Props to everyone who took a late flier on Randa, just goes to prove you never know when a career year will happen. I expect Joe to tail off in the second half, so now is a good time to trade. As far as Chipper is concerned, I expect him to pick it up a little in the second half, despite some recent injury trouble.

Now on to the next event, a three-way dance between superstar Gary Sheffield, human windmill Jose Hernandez, and All-Star candidate Rafael Furcal...
BA
R
HR
RBI
SB
SHEFFIELD
.268
37
13
40
8
HERNANDEZ
.289
37
13
40
2
FURCAL
.286
52
4
23
15


A dead heat between Hernandez and Sheffield in runs, homers, and RBI's - HOW DO YOU LIKE THAT????? Gary has offered some occasional steals this year but Hernandez actually makes up that difference in BA. So their values this year are virtually the same. By the way, in case you're wondering what Jose's batting average is when not striking out (which he's done 107 times so far, once again an MLB record pace), it is .481. Don't look for the whiff pace to slow down, but do look for Jose to return to his sub .250 average of 2000-01. I throw in Furcal since he lost out to Hernandez in the All-Star selection process. Obviously it is an apples/oranges type comparison. Rafi has the runs/steals, Jose the HR/RBI. Tiebreaker goes to Jose with the game in Milwaukee while you can look for Furcal in many mid-summer classics for years to come.

As weak as the NL shortstop pool is, there is the gaggle of AL shortstops to compare...

BA
R
HR
RBI
SB
AROD
.302
63
24
65
5
D. JETER
.307
58
11
39
19
NOMAR
.315
50
10
60
3
M. TEJADA
.299
54
15
59
2
O. VIZQUEL
.295
43
10
45
11
D. ECKSTEIN
.275
52
4
39
13
C. GUILLEN
.297
46
7
37
3



Needless to say, this is the golden generation of AL shortstops. Of all the heat AL manager Joe Torre takes, selecting five from this fully loaded position should not be one of them. Tejada's on pace to challenge for 120 runs, 30 homers and 120 RBI!!!!! Vizquel's on pace for 90 runs, 20 bombs and 90 ribbies, and is one of the best defensive shortstops of all-time. Some commentators are getting sarcastic and suggesting that perhaps Eckstein and Guillen should make the team also. Well you know what, Eck and Guillen's stats do compare favorable with Furcal/Rollins/Hernandez over in the NL. And now with Jeter banged up (leg/day-to-day) perhaps you may see Eckstein or Guillen get a late call. And as far as what to do with five shortstops in one game, Arod starts and is replaced mid-game by Vizquel. Nomar and Jeter get pinch-hitting appearances while Tejada sees some time at third, where he has experience. For those of you that engage in a impromptu fantasy-type game for the All-Stars (I know you sickos are out there) make Alfonso Soriano one of your top picks, as the only AL second sacker, he is liable to play all nine innings.


The next bout is between brothers, and neither is doing well at the moment...


BA
R
HR
RBI
SB
AARON BOONE
.223
31
11
39
11
BRET BOONE
.233
45
11
50
6



All three judges have ruled this as a double disqualification. Actually, I expected this to be Aaron's turn to blow up this season, and although the double figure homers and steals are nice, the BA is an obvious disappointment. Still, he may be a nice player to trade cheaply for at this juncture. Although not many expected Bret to hit .331 again, the 100 point drop is alarming. But remember Brett hit .251 as recently as 2000 with SD. On the plus side Brett is still on pace for 20+ bombs with possible triple-digit runs and ribbies. Still, this was obviously a player overvalued this time around...

Next up, a pair of American League first sackers...


BA
R
HR
RBI
SB
M. SWEENEY
.361
53
15
45
3
J. GIAMBI (NY)
.316
54
21
60
1



You have to love that .360 average for Sweeney. Here's a scary thought, how would Mike's stats translate if he were in pinstripes right now...

What the heck, let's throw some cheap pitchers into the fray...


W-L
ERA
RATIO
K's
IP
A. ASHBY
7-6
3.36
1.15
70
109.2
R. HALLADAY
9-4
3.06
1.16
99
126.2
B. LAWRENCE
7-5
3.60
1.25
85
120


In CDM Ashby goes for 520, Halladay 490, and Lawrence 480, so it's a virtual push between the three there. Veteran hurler Ashby gets mentioned since he's on CDM's Free Agent list this week, you could do worse than his stats. However, Halladay is a better bet with the K's and innings pitched. Lawrence's plus side is that he's at the magic age of 26, the downside is he's with the Padres. Besides their youth, Lawrence and Halladay have another connection between them, with both hailing from Colorado. What do they know about pitching there, that Rockies pitchers don't.

Finally, we throw together several of the top catchers in for comparison...


AB
BA
R
HR
RBI
M. PIAZZA
243
.280
34
15
46
J. POSADA
267
.258
45
13
50
I. RODRIGUEZ
131
.275
14
3
15
D. MILLER
211
.275
31
9
36
A. PIERZYNSKI
226
.323
36
5
31
P. LODUCA
277
.318
35
4
36
R. FICK
283
.293
41
10
34
B. SANTIAGO
245
.273
28
7
38
J. KENDALL
262
.282
25
2
26



Again, stats are through June 30, the early week outbursts of Piazza (2 HR, 7 RBI), and Posada (HR, 6 RBI) are not included, which did separate the New York duo from the pack a little bit more, though you could rightfully ask for a little more BA from Posada. Meanwhile, Piazza is as consistant as ever, with his totals down just a half-tick from previous efforts. No one else is doing much in the power department this year. Irod is by far the biggest dissapointment, and not just because he's been hurt. Double his numbers and he still comes short of most on this list. It is true that Paul LoDuca was the biggest snub when it came to All-Star selections. But it is also true that this year's power numbers (now 5 HR and 38 RBI in 288 AB's) is a far cry from last year (25 HR, 90 RBI in just 460 AB's). NL manager Brenly elected to go with his guy Damien Miller, along with giving Benny Santiago a lifetime achievement selection (he was supposed to finished five years ago!!!). LoDuca has the best BA but the power numbers are a dead heat between the three. A. J. Pierzynski has been by far the best value due to his batting average while Robert Fick, who has spent the entire year in right field, gets the Mike Sweeney award. Next year Fick will just be another outfielder for fantasy purposes. Surprisingly, Jason Kendall's speed has not gone away, he has 11 steals on the year if you need them. The downside on Jason is he's on pace to score a paltry 50 runs this year, compared 84 last year and 112 in 2000.


TRADE WINDS BLOWING

If you believe ESPN analyst Peter Gammons, the mother of all fire sales is about to occur in Florida, and it won't stop with the unloading of outfielder Cliff Floyd, as Gammons also has starters Brad Penny and Ryan Dempster, among others - being unloaded as well. The trade of disappointing OF Raul Mondesi to the Yankees hurts Floyd's chances of ending up in pinstripes, at least for the moment. The good news is the Cliff's name has surfaced in a potential trade for the Giants, which would result in a monster boost fantasy-wise for the left-hander, especially providing added protection for Barry Bonds/Jeff Kent.

Guess the Cardinals shouldn't had wasted any time trying to get Bartolo Colon, as he was shockingly dealt to the Expos. Note on that trade, per MLB orders the Expos are not allowed to add on any salary this season (a.k.a salary cap), that's why first basemen Lee Stevens went to Cleveland in the deal. As far as St. Louis is concerned, they jump to the top of the list in regards to jockeying for Penny, Dempster, and Detroit's Jeff Weaver. A trade of any of those three to STL would be a fantasy value boost. Also, the biggest beneficiary of the Mondesi trade from the Toronto side goes to Vernon Wells, who finished the first half at .257/37/9/36/5. With his place cemented in the Blue Jay outfield, a .280/40/10/40/10 second half is very possible. As far as the Yanks are concerned, Raul's addition just gives even move protection for Giambi, Posada, Soriano, Williams, et al.

Now for some other players making noise...

Jeff Kent - Clearly Barry Bonds needs to light a fire under this guy more often. 15-28, with 3 HR and 15 RBI in his last six outings.

Jim Thome - Widely rumored to be next in the Tribe's fire sale. Thome has put himself back on pace for a 50 HR year with bombs in seven straight games. Another homer on the fourth would tie an all-time consecutive game record with Griffey Jr., Mattingly, and Dale Long.

Mark Mulder - Came back in a huge way in June, going 6-0 with a 2.51 ERA, garnering Pitcher of the Month honors. Mulder's winning streak came to an end after coming on the short end of a pitching duel with...

Johan Santana (MN) - Didn't he just play for Germany in the World Cup??? Or maybe this is mixing classical music with a rock legend. Actually, it is neither as the 23-year old is now 4-1 since his callup last month, with a 2.45 ERA, a 1.21 ratio, and 51 STRIKEOUTS IN 40.1 INNINGS PITCHED.

Larry Walker - LW is on yet another one of his patented Coors Field tears this week, torching SF pitching for three homers and eight RBI. LW now checks in at .350/59/20/66 for the year. So much for the humidor.

Pat Burrell - At 920, he is the best bet of this weeks CDM Free Agents. With a .290 BA, 51 runs, 20 HR, and 61 RBI what is there not to like???? Don't worry - Mt. Bowa will find something.

Fernando Tatis - 'Satellite Dish Ears' is finally back, after over two seasons of physical ailments, with 6 HR's and 21 RBI's in his last 18 outings.

Current members of the walking wounded include J.D. Drew (knee tendonitis - DL), Todd Helton (back),Mike Sweeney (cut finger D-T-D), and D-Back starter Rick Helling (either bum ankle or was just begging out of a brawl, you be the judge).


WEEK 15 PREVIEW

Normally All-Star Week is relatively easy to dissect. Everyone usually plays four games, meaning all SP's get one start (unless they're a fifth starter) and fantasy players simply look for the best matchups. Beware though that this time around STL, SD, CHC, and FL will only be playing three times in the coming week - which raises the spector of fourth starters being held back until the following Monday. Be especially leary of the Cubs Mark Prior and Kerry Wood, who are handled with kid gloves to begin with. Pitchers who are not with the above mentioned four teams, who do not pitch this coming Sunday, and are not selected to the All-Star team, and candidates to start Thursday, and thus be eligible to start twice in Week 16. That list includes Tim Hudson, Roy Oswalt, Mike Mussina, Al Leiter, and Kaz Ishii. Pedro Martinez has pulled a Tiger Woods and asked out of the All-Star game, so he could conceivably go Thursday. The entire Week 15 rundown is as follows: NYY @ CLE, OAK @ BAL, CWS @ DET, BOS @ TOR, SEA @ TB, TX @ MN, ANH @ KC, FL @ CHC (3), ATL @ MTL, PHI @ NYM, PIT @ MIL, CIN @ HOU, STL @ SD (3), AZ @ LA, COL @ SF.

As the season winds down, the pickings start to get slim for CDM's weekly Free Agent list. This week offerings are as follows, with recommended players in bold and DL'd players in red...

C 6 LOPEZ, JAVIER ATL 880000
1B 136 JOHNSON, NICK NYY 600000
2B 203 BOONE, BRET SEA 1440000
3B 308 CHAVEZ, ERIC OAK 1070000
SS 409 GUZMAN, CHRISTIAN MIN 940000

OF 548 DREW, J.D. STL 1010000
OF 560 BURRELL, PAT PHI 920000
SP 825 WOOD, KERRY CHC 1050000
SP 926 ASHBY, ANDY LA 520000
RP 1109 PERCIVAL, TROY ANA 1380000


FINAL REMINDER

Use all the knowledge and insight presented in this column to good use by entering CDM Mid-Season Fantasy Baseball featuring a 55 million dollar salary cap. Just tell them the KAC WAR SHEET sent ya...




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