Atlanta Falcons



2003 KAC BASEBALL BLUE SHEET - WEEK 14


There's Safety All-Stars, then there's Pitching All-Stars...



The Chicago White Sox are struggling to find an identity with their fans. That is not exactly breaking news. While the cross-town Cubs own the city, the Sox own perhaps a run-down rat-infested neighborhood or two. The Sox are ECW to the Cubs WWE. Just like how ECW used to have its wrestlers jump off balconies or be thrown into tables filled with nails for attention, the White Sox organization for most of it�s 100+ year existence have been forced to do the outrageous just to get some ink. Whether it be throwing the World Series, exploding scoreboards, uniforms resembling pajamas, disco demolition night, Jimmy Piersall and Lorne Brown getting demented (complete with Jimmy making open references to bookies while giving out-of-town scores), Terry Bevington picking fights with the opposing manager, drunk fans beating up the umpire, whatever � the White Sox have traditionally been operated like a silly minor league outfit. Come to think of it they used to hold wrestling cards inside old Comiskey Park, that�s how they got to have the worst playing field in the bigs and once even resorted to having an Astro-Turf infield.

During a Sox telecast on G-N last week (don�t their local telecasts belong on Channel 44 or something, wait � they�re out of business!!!), I realized the organizations desperation to get at least a foothold in the community was reaching new lows. They had whoever�s working with Hot Rod Hundley (I mean Hawk Harrelson) these days, along with some mascot, third baseman Joe Crede and some other PR people, and the �Safety All-Stars� (kids whom wrote essays for this honor), go around to various area schools reading poems, signing songs, and signing a few autographs along the way in the name of getting the word out on kid�s safety.

While I applaud the team�s efforts on serving what part of the community actually recognizes them, I have a feeling this program did not go over too well. There would had been nothing like a Kerry Wood and/or Mark Prior visiting area schools to help brighten up the days of young fans along with a little message or two. But instead they get a struggling rookie third basemen along with some washed-up player/commentator??? The least they could have done was present a tale on how Billy Goat somehow wound up being the Sox�s would-be closer. I mean even the New Jersey Devils/Nets would be hard pressed to overcome this kind of identity crisis in their own back yard�


***



Of course the All-Star game comes to the South Side of Chicago in less than three weeks, only to help bide the time before Wrigley Field (hosted in 1990) can come back under consideration in a decade of so. Last week I looked at the current voting for the starting position players, along with those whom should be getting serious consideration from the fans. This week I look at the pitching end of the equation. This year rosters are expanded to 32 players (from 30) per team along with a mandatory 11 pitchers per team (a combined 19 was used in last years 11-inning tie). Of course all this means is that managers will cram players into the game even more, and will be out of players should the game reach extra innings. So in the end this solves very little.

Although the minimum is set at 11, don�t be surprised to see each league go with 12-man staffs. So get ready to see pitching changes with literally every batter in the eighth and ninth innings. The selections should be far more interesting without Pedro Martinez, Curt Schilling, Randy Johnson, nor Greg Maddux in the equation. And I�m sure there will be others who pull out at the last minute. Here�s who to look for when the selections come out�


AMERICAN LEAGUE

Mike Mussina (NYY) � So much for the 30-win season. In fact Moose went winless in the five starts after I brought the topic up. Despite the slight mini-slump, Moose is still sitting at 9-4 with a 2.99 ERA/.99 ratio along with exactly one punch-out per inning - and is more than worthy of consideration.

David Wells (NYY) � In the strike-shortened season of 1994, Bret Saberhagen had statistically the best control season in modern history by allowing only 13 free passes in 177 1/3 innings pitched. By contrast David Wells has allowed all of four walks in 107.2 IP this season, along with a 9-2 record, and a 3.26 ERA/1.06 ratio. Not to mention he�s doing this all at the tender age of 40. His fantasy value gets curtailed somewhat with only 55 K�s, but realize when he get selected this is not for old time�s sake or his book-writing abilities.

Roger Clemens (NYY) � Just on his achievements and recent 300th victory/4,000th strikeout, Clemens would probably get a nomination regardless of record in what figures to be his final season. However the Rocket doesn�t even need the lifetime achievement angle to get selected with a 7-5 record, 3.54 ERA/1.17 ratio. Most impressive however is that Rocket leads the Al with 112 K�s in 104.1 IP.

Roy Halladay (TOR) � Was not even close to being a consideration at the close of April, after coming out of the box winless in six decisions along with an ERA near five. Since then however Halladay has quickly reeled off wins in 11 straight decisions, and now is tied for the AL league in that category. Roy has an ERA just under three during that span pitching half his games in one of baseball�s better offensive parks.

Esteban Loaiza (CWS) � I keep on waiting for his crash back to earth, but all he does is soar even higher and make me look even more foolish in the process. Won his 11th game of the season while lowering his ERA to an MLB-low 1.99, and has chipped in 90 strikeouts as well. So in addition to a pair of 40-year olds you can add this non-roster invitee from just this spring.

Eddie Guardado (MN) � Twins closer has proven last year�s 45-save effort was no fluke, converting 19 of a possible 20 saves along with a fine 2.94 ERA.

Barry Zito (OAK) � Has only won seven games while losing as many (five) as of all of last year. Is also not striking out hitters this year, with only 66 K�s in 107.2 IP. However, the ERA/ratio is right in line with last year at 2.84 and 1.11 respectively.

Mark Mulder (OAK) � Has been somewhat shaky lately, but still has won 10 games with a 3.38 ERA and should be able to make the cut.

Tim Hudson (OAK) � Has pitched in tough luck all year with only five wins to his credit. The rest of his numbers are in line with the other members of the Big Three with a 3.28 ERA and 1.18 ratio.

Keith Foulke (OAK) � The A�s closer should make it a quartet for the Oakland pitching staff as Foulke has saved 20 games with a 2.43 ERA/.98 ratio, exactly in line with his 2001 numbers for the White Sox. And they found a way to demote him the following year???

Jamie Moyer (SEA) � How about a third 40 year old??? Moyer has been as good as anyone in the AL with a 10-4 record along with an outstanding 2.93 ERA. Career ERA still stands at 4.09, but has been at 3.43 or below the past three seasons.

Gil Meche (SEA) � This might be the best story of all. 25-year old missed all of the previous two seasons with arm injuries, but has rebounded with a vengeance this year, with a 9-3 record along with a sparkling 2.89 ERA and 67 K�s in 90.1 IP.

(ON THE BUBBLE) Danys Baez (CLE) � Cleveland�s representative could well be Milton Bradley (.342 BA), but Baez could be in the mix as well. Has done a nice job saving 16 of 20 games along with a decent 3.50 ERA/1.06 ratio.


NATIONAL LEAGUE

John Smoltz (ATL) � I was among the first to proclaim him as �the New Eck� when he took over the A-T-L�s closer duties late in 2001, and Smoltz has lived to all of my hype. With 28 saves and a microscopic 0.88 ERA, Smoltz is a must for any fantasy team.

Kevin Millwood (PHI) � Recent rough stretch has sent his ERA soaring over 4, but still look for Millwood to squeeze his way in as a borderline selection. April 27th no-hitter v. the Giants goes a long way on this year's resume.

Kerry Wood (CHC) � Cubs broadcaster Pat Hughes this week referred to Wood as the most exciting pitcher for his money to watch �when he�s on�. Well guess what, he�s on � with a MLB leading 136 K�s while dropping his ERA below three. Most scary for opposing hitters (as well as fantasy teams not with him) is that he has only walked one in his last two starts. Like Randy Johnson did about a decade earlier, Wood is suddenly finding his control.

Mark Prior (CHC) � As considerable as the hype was when selected out of USC just two years ago, Prior has lived up to every bit of it. Strikeouts are actually down a tab, but still over one K per inning along with an 8-3 record, a 2.64 ERA, and 1.11 ratio.

Woody Williams (STL) � Like Jamie Moyer in the AL, Woody is another one who has found IT late in his career, with a 9-2 slate along with a 2.55 ERA/1.08 ratio. Give the S-T-L pitching coach some credit as he�s been below 2.50 since his late-2001 trade from San Diego. Only injuries problems last year have kept him from being a household name until now. Especially deadly at home, where he sports a 1.53 ERA/.82 WHIP.

Billy Wagner (HOU) � I don�t know how many times we really need to hear this story from Charlie Steiner. Billy broke his right arm playing football as a youth, and then re-broke just after coming out the cast. At that point Wagner decides to start learning how to throw a baseball with his good (un-natural) arm and the rest is history. I don�t even need to bore you with the stats as he throws well into triple-digits on a consistent basis.

Shawn Chacon (COL) � Quick, what does Chacon and Curt Schilling have in common??? A: They were both born in Alaska. Apparently, Chacon has acquired some other traits from the Big Schill as well (constant whining fortunately not one of them). Has an NL leading 11 wins with a 3.91 ERA, including a very respectable 4.21 at home. Rockie pitchers often get overlooked in the fantasy scheme of things so Chacon especially deserves the recognition.

Eric Gagne (LA) � Don�t care if he�s a reliever, he deserves serious Cy Young consideration and would also consider him for MVP if it wasn�t for that Lopez guy in Atlanta. Even after getting touched up a little in his last couple of appearances still has a .71 ratio along with an unbelievable 69 K�s in 39.1 IP along with his 29 saves.

Kevin Brown (LA) � Saw his nine-game winning streak come to an end this week, as well as a streak of 10 straight starts allowing two runs or less. But that still doesn�t take away from his 2.22 ERA for the season, yet another oldie that seems to be getting even better.

Hideo Nomo (LA) � Eight years after exploding onto the U.S baseball scene, it has all come full circle for Nomo � who sports a 2.41 ERA/1.08 ratio, very similar #�s to that 1995 rookie campaign. Does not get the strikeouts like he used to, but opponents are hitting all of .193 of him. Don�t be surprised to see him notch a third career no-hitter in the very near future.

Jason Schmidt (SF) � This will be another feel-good story during All-Star week as Schmidt has become among the NL�s best despite dealing with the loss of his mother earlier this season. Another complete game gem this week lowers his ERA to 2.23 along with a .94 ratio and 117 K�s in 109 IP.

Tim Worrell (SF) � Classic example of a career middle-reliever who has made the most of an opportunity � saving 17 games along with a rock-solid 1.76 ERA. The loss of Rob Nen only seems to be impacting the middle-relief situation here.

DONTRELLE
WILLIS IS MAKING A LATE ALL-STAR RUN...
(ON THE BUBBLE) Dontrelle Willis (FL) � Still seems like a long-shot, especially since he didn�t even make his MLB debut until May 9. However Willis has come in with a start (and a wind-up) perhaps not seen since Fernando-Mania in 1981. Currently sporting a 7-1 record along with a 2.38 ERA/1.15 ratio, and 55 K�s in 56.2 IP.


I have also made my selections for the All-time San Diego Padres team, notice I went mostly with 1980�s era players here�

C � Benny Santiago, 1B � Steve Garvey (has unfortunately become a punch line, but killed the Cubs in �84), 2B � Robby Alomar (his range early in his career was even better), 3B � Graig �SuperBall� Nettles (though Sheffield got serious consideration), SS � Ozzie Smith (zero debate here), OF � Tony Gwynn, John Kruk, Greg Vaughn, SP � Kevin Brown, Bruce Hurst, Randy Jones, CLOSER � Trevor Hoffman (Rollie Fingers, Goose Gossage, and 1989 Cy Young Winner Mark Davis were among the other options), MANAGER � Dick Williams (although I also gave Larry Bowa a write-in vote).


***

Quick quiz here: What do the following six pitchers have in common? Bud Smith, Bronson Arroyo, Nick Neugebauer, Andy Van Hekken, Jon Rauch, and John Stephens. If you said none of them have pitched in a major league game this year you�re right. However, they are also the six pitchers starting for a team currently ahead of me in the CDM 2nd Season Challenge.

It�s all part of a unique strategy of a contestant taking six listed �flat-lined� starting pitchers at the cheapest available price (470K or lower), none of whom are currently active on a Major League roster. Then the owner pours his resources into his four relief pitchers, in this case predictably taking Eric Gagne, John Smoltz, Billy Wagner, and Keith Foulke. The upshot is that while the entry is punting the win and strikeout categories, they will also be maxing out in the save, ERA, and WHIP categories due to the current dominance of the four relievers just mentioned.

That does automatically give such an entry an above-average total of 77 points in the pitching categories (ERA:25, WHIP:25, SAVES:25, WINS:1, K�s:1). That would be the equivalent of a traditional entry averaging 15-16 points (out of 25) in each of the five categories. This particular entry also has reliever Tim Worrell in reserve, as well as Jose Acevedo and Sun-Woo Kim just in case a pulse is detected in any of his current six �starters�.

The advantage of employing this strategy involves the power of having extra salary available for your hitters, in addition to employing most of your bench along with all purchases towards hitting. Theoretically, if things shake right � such a team stands a good chance at maxing out at close to the 125 points available in the offensive categories. That gives such an entry a possibility of compiling in the neighborhood of 200 points, often good enough to win a 25-team league.

However, I feel the negatives outweigh the benefits in this case. Should a traditional team going all out with 28 starters (as well as all ten categories) scores in the 210+ point area, then the punted-starter team is automatically dead to rights. And even if the strategy works to perfection, such a team stands no chance in the overall or (250 team) division scheme of things, as contenders there must be competitive in all ten categories. Punting the win and strikeout categories automatically eliminates any team from winning any more than the $400-$600 league prize.

Not to mention the 77 pitching points, as well as the 120+ hitting points are far from a guarantee. Should a reliever get hurt early in a given week, or if a listed starter becomes a closer in MLB, a punted-starter team could suddenly fall from the point in saves. Also if one or more of his relievers start having some bad outings the ERA/WHIP categories could suddenly be in trouble. But the hardest thing that is easier said and done is excelling in the hitting categories, even with the extra cap space and bench. Currently the team in my league incurring this strategy is only scoring in the 75-80 point range on offense, putting him in the 150�s overall, which places him in seventh in the league. If this was just a normal 10-12 team fantasy league, punting is a prudent strategy. And this comes from someone who has won a couple of hoop league titles in my time while punting the Free Throw % category (Shaq automatically guarantees a 1-pt standing there). But in the Challenge scheme of things it the minuses far outweigh the plusses � it still makes for an interesting case study however.


OTHER NOTES

More than a generation has passed since quarterback Jim Hart was firing bombs for coach Don Coryall and the football St. Louis Cardinals. Now it is minor-league call up Bo Hart setting St. Louis on it�s ear going 15-30, along with six runs, a homer, and four RBI and earning standing ovations from the Busch Stadium faithful. Hart should continue to do a fine job until Miguel Cairo comes back � but don�t get too carried away. Hart is 26 years old, is not a big-time prospect, and only hit .249 with four home runs in over 400 AB�s in AA ball last year. A nice story at the moment, but does not project to an impact player.

KLITSCHKO
KLITSCHKO LOOKS LIKE HE JUST WENT 15 ROUNDS WITH KYLE FARNSWORTH...

Incredibly, Nomar Garciaparra did not have a five hit game in his career until last weekend. Nomar then makes up for lost time with a six-hit afternoon, followed by a five-hit gave just three nights later. Is Adam Dunn disease spreading over to Austin Kearns, who is just 2 for his last 24 and has seen his BA drop over 40 points in just the last month. It looked for a fleeting moment like Javy Lopez was finally beginning to cool down, as TBS flashes a graphic that he had gone 21 AB�s without an RBI. Then on cue, Lopez crushes a three-run shot. A half-hour later a quick check to the computer reveals another 5-run Brave outburst � sure enough another Lopez three-runner highlighted that. Javy then added another 2-bomb night this week, giving him six on the year, including four this month alone. Like I�ve said, Sammy Sosa 1998 all over again. And how about poor Paul Wilson??? Kyle Farnsworth turns his face into Vitali Klitschko, yet Wilson gets suspended for five games to Kyle�s three. And the scene of Farnsworth gloating at Wilson from the dugout afterwards was classic!!!! Farnsworth will not appeal his suspension, which has to be a first � but then again that�s how easy he got off.

And then there is Juan Gonzalez, back to his hold tricks missing six out of ten games with a bad hammy. Just as Juan returned to the lineup, the reeling Rangers then attempted to trade him to the Montreal Expos, a deal that Juan initially nixed. Now manager Buck Showalter has Juan riding the bench � get the feeling Buck is going to pressure him into going??? Look for Juan to eventually relent and accept the trade, which at least assures the Expos sell-outs in their final upcoming six games in San Juan, before Gonzalez seeks yet another team in free agency this coming winter. Bet that $144 million dollar contract from Detroit he turned down a few years back sounds pretty good right about now. And what were the Tigers thinking??? But then again, this was the same organization that threw mega-millions at Damian Easley. Back to Juan, he�s beginning to go through teams just like he goes through wives and agents�

The top pick-ups, drops in CDM�s full-season Challenge for this week was as follows�

ADDS

  1. Woody Williams SP-STL (133) � By far the best of last week�s Free Agent list, and as I predicted number 1 for the week.
  2. Brett Boone 2B-SEA (119) � Now a co-captain along with Javy Lopez on my �I don�t have them� team.
  3. Vernon Wells OF-TOR (101) � Did not know there were 101 teams left that cared who didn�t have him yet.
  4. Gary Sheffield OF-ATL (94) � Cooling down with an 0-7 so far this week.
  5. Albert Pujols OF-STL (88) � The quest for .400, the quest for the Triple Crown, the quest to keep Bo from stealing your thunder.
  6. Billy Wagner OF-HOU (75) � Whomever kept breaking his right arm deserves a mention at the HOF podium.
  7. Esteban Loaiza SP-CWS (69) � �I WISH I WAS IN TI-JUANA, EATING B-B-Q�D IGUANA��
  8. Kerry Wood SP-CHC (66) � But his home run went only half the distance of Sammy Sosa�s
  9. Eric Gagne RP-LA (62) � I know runners don�t get to first on you often, but you�ve got to hold Barry�
  10. Barry Zito SP-OAK (60) � Last year Barry spent All-Star week cooped up in his hotel room while expressing his dislike to Milwaukee�s beer-and-brat cuisine. Well, those Vienna Chicago hot dogs with all the fixins� ain�t too much better�


Carlos Beltran and Dontrelle Willis just missed the top-ten, while Ichiro is getting a lot of action in the 2nd Season game.

DROPS

  1. Matt Mantei RP-AZ (154) � With each Jose Valverde save, the chances of Mantei ever regaining the closers role diminishes.
  2. Vladamir Guerrero OF-MTL (125) � Encouraging medical reports again, Vlad could be back after the All-Star break.
  3. Jose Hernandez SS-CHC (114) � One Cub fan summed it up best following Jose�s trade from the Rockies � �If we needed a windmill, we would had just kept Bellhorn!!!!!�
  4. Pat Burrell OF-PHI (101) � Phillie legend Mike Schmidt has offered a hand in helping Burrell break his season-long slump. So far, Pat has reportedly not reached out.
  5. Junior Spivey 2B-AZ (90) � Return date appears to be August 1 at the earliest.
  6. Adam Dunn OF-CIN (49) � Is it too late to file for the NFL supplemental draft yet???
  7. Roy Oswalt SP-HOU (49) � Eligible to be activated this weekend, but don�t hold your breath.
  8. Eric Hinske 3B-TOR (46) � Started a rehab assignment this week and should be back soon.
  9. Randy Johnson SP-AZ (35) � Threw from a mound this week and will be out on a rehab assignment 7/3.
  10. Josh Phelps 1B-TOR (34) � Quick, what does Phelps have in common with Schilling and Chacon??? Unfortunately, this Alaskan will be no where near the All-Star game.



WEEK 14 PREVIEW

If there was ever a week to go with Hideo Nomo, this may be it � as he should have two starts at home, one v. SD and the other v. AZ. Other two start possibilities include Javier Vazquez, Wade Miller (one v. MIL), Matt Morris, Jamie Moyer, Mark Prior, Pedro Martinez (???), Mike Mussina (???), Tim Hudson, Gil Meche, Woody Williams, Dontrelle Willis, and Odalis Perez (although I can�t see why he won�t start this coming Sunday).

FL, NYM, SD, LA, MIL, HOU, CIN, PIT, NYY, and CWS will be the only teams playing six games, everyone else plays seven. Besides LA, teams at home include BAL, TB, KC, OAK, PHI, and PIT. Teams on the road for the entire week are TOR, BOS, CLE, SEA, MTL, SF, and AZ.

CDM�s Free Agent list for this week is as follows�

C � Benito Santiago (800) � There has actually been interest here, as Benito is turning back the hands of time with 10 HR and 39 RBI along with a .290 average.
1B � Jason Giambi (1670) � Forget the first quarter of the season � Since May 18 Giambi�s hitting .333 (35-105) with 11 HR and 31 RBI. Not quite the value of a Carlos Delgado, but close.
2B � Marcus Giles (400) � Interest may cool with no RBI in nearly two weeks while going 3-40. Orlando Hudson is beginning to sound much better for this price.
3B � Bill Mueller (600) - .320 average, but not much as far as speed and power are concerned.
SS � Alex Gonzalez (400) � This is the Marlins version complete with 12 HR and 50 RBI with a .315 average. I would still be worried about him reverting to his old sub-.250 ways but not a bad pick-up for that price.
OF � Carl Everett (850) � Finally stuck him in my 2nd Season lineup this week and BOOL-YAH, an immediate three-run jack. Unlike Juan, Everett appears to be in the Rangers plans for the rest of this season.
OF � Corey Patterson (500) � Whatever Rocco Baldelli does, Patterson does one better. Steals, homers, average � you get it all here.
SP � Corey Lidle (870) � 10-5 record, but with a 5.12 ERA as he has gotten more offensive support than anyone in the bigs this year.
SP � Shawn Chacon (560) � Guess you can get cute and start him when the Rockies are on the road, but not recommended.
RP � Jorge Julio (1150) � Not a bad closer, just worried that he might go seven weeks without a save opp again.





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