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2004 KAC BASEBALL BLUE SHEET - WEEK 13


BRACE FOR ALL-STAR SNUBS



Two weeks ago I projected the elected All-Star starters with accuracy that FOX News channel can only dream of. Last week I unveiled my pitching staffs for this week. To recap, my current rosters are as follows�

AL � Starters: I. Rodriguez, Giambi, Soriano, Arod, Jeter, V. Guerrero, Ramirez, Sheffield. Pitchers: J. Vazquez, P. Martinez, Schilling, Halladay, J. Westbrook, Hudson, Mulder, M. Rivera, F. Cordero, J. Nathan, Foulke, F. Rodriguez. (Note: Hideki Matsui is currently narrowly behind Sheffield for the third outfield spot.)

NL � Starters: Piazza, Pujols, Kent, Rolen, Renteria (A. Everett), Bonds, Griffey, Sosa. Pitchers: Glavine, Penny, Z. Day, C. Zambrano, Sheets, Clemens, R. Johnson, Schmidt, A. Benitez, Graves, Gagne, A. Otsuka. (Note: Renteria and Everett is too close to call.)

That leaves 12 openings for each league. Currently there are representatives for each team except for the following�

AL � Tampa Bay, Baltimore, Chicago, Kansas City, Seattle

NL � Atlanta, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Colorado

Keep that in mind as I announce the following reserves�


AL

Vic Martinez (C-CLE) � With an average of .321 with 53 RBI in 61 games, this is a no-brainer.

Jorge Posada (C-NYY) � Javy Lopez has similar stats and a higher batting average, but Posada will get the nod because (a) Joe Torre is the manager and (b) there are a couple other Orioles with better credentials.

David Ortiz (1B-BOS) � Since he plays more DH than first base, Ortiz did not make the ballot. But with averaging nearly an RBI per game there�s no way he gets ignored here.

Frank Thomas (1B-CWS) � Another who plays more DH than first these days, the hurt is quietly having a solid season hitting over .290 with 18 home runs. He should be the White Sox representative.

Michael Young (SS-TX) � There are no deserving representatives at second besides Alfonso Soriano. Look for Young to be selected and end up taking over for his teammate in the middle innings.

Melvin Mora (3B-BAL) � Another reason Javy Lopez may be left out is that Mora is an absolute lock this year.

Hank Blalock (3B-TX) � Quickly becoming one of the games best pure hitters.

Miguel Tejada (SS-OF) - Has driven in 44 runs in his last 46 games. No way he takes a back seat to Nomar this year.

Carl Crawford (OF-TB) � Despite the team�s impressive 12-game winning streak, no Devil Ray really stands out as far as All-Star representation is concerned. One of the games best young dynamic lead-off man appears to be the best candidate.

Carlos Beltran (OF-KC) � Good luck finding a worthy Royals candidate if Beltran gets traded in the next two weeks.

Ichiro Suzuki (OF-SEA) � Will also be a lock.

Johnny Damon (OF-BOS) � JD has another flashback, and salutes the fans thinking that he�s back in Oakland and it�s Fan Appreciation Day. Actually, Damon is being loaded into an ambulance after yet another harrowing collision on national television. Damon will be one of the favorites when fans select from five candidates for the final All-Star birth.


ALTERNATES

Carlos Guillen (SS-DET) � Has made such an impression in Detroit that the team signed him to a three-year extension this week. Tejada's recent hot streak may have Guillen on the outside looking in however.

Hideki Matsui (OF-NYY) � Another Yankee whom Joe Torre may find some way to get on his roster. A last-minute internet surge (like he got last year) could also send him past Gary Sheffield into a starting berth, and would also be a prime contender in the 32nd man voting.

Carlos Lee (OF-CWS) � Just off a 28-game hit streak, Lee is a longshot possibility to the White Sox representative over Frank Thomas.

Jose Guillen (OF-ANH) � Has proven last year not to be a fluke and is on pace for 110 RBI�s in one of baseball�s most loaded lineups.


NL

Johnny Estrada (C �ATL) - 4-4 night this week brings his average to over .330 on the year.

Jason Kendall (C-PIT) - Also went 4-4 this week, off Roy Oswalt of all people, then hits a grand slam the next night. Kendall also still likes to steal the occasional base and becomes the Bucco�s best representative after Craig Wilson�s recent slump.

Jeff Bagwell (1B-HOU) � The home fans are stuffing the ballot box trying to get Bags to start over Al Pujols. Bagwell will be in the show one way or another.

Todd Helton (1B-COL) � Has had somewhat of an off year, but with Preston Wilson and Larry Walker out for most of the year Helton is the Rockies best option.

Jim Thome (1B-PHI) � It�s a crowded first base field this year, but Thome can�t be ignored � especially after a surge that�s seen Thome belt 11 home runs (24 RBI) over the past three weeks.

Mark Loretta (2B-SD) � Weak second base field gets worse with the absence of Marcus Giles. Either Loretta, Todd Walker, or Jose Vidro will be Jeff Kent�s backup.

Mike Lowell (3B-FL) � One deserving Marlin that Jack McKeon will make sure he brings along.

Aramis Ramirez (3B-CHC) � Another NL third baseman having a monster year.

Adam Everett (SS-HOU) � If the fans don�t vote him in, he or Jack Wilson will vie to be the backup shortstop.

Migeuel Cabrera (OF-FL) � On the fast-track to superstardom, Cabrera has a chance at a .300/100/30/100 season.

Bobby Abreu (OF-PHI) � Under-rated player NL�s answer to Carlos Beltan.

Lance Berkman (OF-HOU) � Being .326/16/55 on the season, I don�t see him possibly getting snubbed, but even if he does Berkman will be a lock in the 32nd player voting.


ALTERNATES

Jose Vidro (2B-MTL) - Has picked it up considerably in June. Name recognition could very well make him the Expos representative.

Vinny Castilla (3B-COL) � Could conceivably be the Rockies representative over Todd Helton.

Lyle Overbay (1B-MIL) � Despite his tremendous first half, he needs Helton to be left off to sneak into the crowded first base picture.

Adam Dunn (OF-CIN) � One of baseball�s best pure power hitting making a late charge to make the squad.

Jim Edmonds (OF-STL) � On pace for 100 runs, 30 HR, 100 RBI, Edmonds sits squarely on the bubble and will push Cabrera for a berth.


***



This is the time of year where I peek into the demented world of some of the CDM legends who are at or near the top of the current leaderboards, I�ll critique and slam their rosters to death, but then again they�re in the top five while I�m deep in the abyss � what do I know???

Robin Merryman

Already a past Diamond Challenge champion, Merryman is in first place overall again this year. His success thus far appears to be the simple case of identifying and jumping on the bandwagons of the breakout players early. Vic Martinez, Johnny Estrada, Mark Loretta, Carlos Guillen, Ben Sheets, and Armando Benitez are among those in his starting lineup. Carl Crawford and Scott Podsednik fill up the SB category, with Vladimir Guerrero and Albert Pujols providing premium power. Is also loading up on the pitching innings with 11 active starting pitchers on his roster along with the disabled Kerry Wood stashed on the taxi squad. Merryman�s most revealing drops thus far are J.D Drew along with Jeff Kent. I feel that Drew (when healthy of course) provides slightly more than Jermaine Dye (who I gather must had been a pick-up after the first couple of weeks), who currently serves as one of his DH�s.


Moo (Jeff Schwartz)

Moo�s 10-year exemption for winning the 1994 Challenge is just about to run out, but just when you think Schwartz has become a John Daly-esque has-been he reappears in the top-five of the 2nd Season standings. Moo got an incredible amount of publicity stemming from his strike-shortened �94 Championship, although I was able to overtake him in the final week of that season to win a local fantasy league (run out of a Milwaukee east-side dungeon) by a whisker. Guess Donald Fehr does have his advantages. To this day I have refused all interviews from the media to discuss that, not like I was getting any to begin with.

Not surprisingly, Schwartz has loaded up on Brewers with Scott Podsednik, Ben Sheets, and Dan Kolb all on his roster. Moo also has a mind-numbing 13 pitchers on his payroll, which includes Jeremy Affeldt to provide additional saves while finding five others to two-step. There are some surprising players on his roster, including 1B Ken Harvey who was picked up this week (what, no Overbay??). Other head-scratchers include 3B Pedro Feliz, SS Nomar Garciaparra, OF Matt Lawton, and SS Bobby Crosby. Instead of Carlos Beltran (who was an early drop), Moo has Bobby Abreu � if Abreu continues to shine while Beltran slumps that move could prove to be a winner � although keeping Beltran would had been nice for insurance. Schwartz also had Jim Thome was his 11 home run binge although he taxied him this week. Schwartz also got in on the ground floor in regards of picking up newly minted Cub closer LaTroy Hawkins. Besides Beltran, Moo�s most questionable drop thus far is Matt Herges, especially considering that Arthur Rhodes still sits on his taxi squad.

But then again, I must emphasize � they�re contending, I�m not�


OTHER NOTES

Did you take my advice on Johan Santana a few weeks back, suggesting that he should go huge in road starts at Montreal and Milwaukee?? Santana won AL player of the week after winning both games while recording 19 strikeouts. Speaking of Carlos Beltran, the trade rumors are already going full bore. The most significant speculation had Beltran going to Houston, and Octovio Dotel winding up in Oakland in a three-way dance. Should that happen Brad Lidge becomes a highly desired closer while Beltran goes to a better hitters park. Boston and the Yankees (who else??) also are possible destinations.

Closers are another hot topic. Jason Frasor is cemented in Toronto while Shingo Takatsu has lived up to his nickname (Mr. Zero) with 25 consecutive scoreless innings. The trade of Billy Koch should solidify his status once and for all. There are also some shaky situations in the NL West � Jose Velverde has been DL�d with Mike Koplove becoming the best option on the rare occasions where the D-Backs actually have the lead. Brewers announcer Bob Uecker had a classic line when mentioning Shawn Chacon�s 8+ ERA, �That sounds more like an opener, not a closer��. Someone named Tim Harikkala, who had 17.1 innings (in 1996, �99) before this year, is mentioned as a possible replacement. Also keep an eye on Herges, both Felix Rodriguez and Scott Eyre (whom opponents hit a buck-twenty off of) could work themselves into what may become a committee. Meanwhile Rob Nen was again sent home, if I haven�t told you already he�s finished.

Get ready for the Colorado Rockie offense to start firing on all cylinders with Preston Wilson and Larry Walker both returning from injuries. This bumps Vinny Castilla and Jeromy Burnitz to sixth and seventh respectively in the batting order. Whatever happened to Marlon Byrd. In what smacks of a classic Larry Bowa wake-up call, the struggling Byrd was demoted to AAA over the weekend. Conventional wisdom suggests Byrd will find his stroke, but some never recover from Bowa wake-up calls (Stanley Jefferson comes to mind). Finally, Curt Schilling may continue to pitch impressively, but the ankle is still a sore spot. Schill has been taking the needle before starts, taking multiple injections of something called marcaine - which is used as an anesethetic an various surgical procedures including at the dentist office and during labor and delivery. Have a feeling that a lesser person would be on the DL right about now.


TOP ADDS/DROPS (FA'S IN BOLD)

1. Danny Graves RP-CIN (271) � But he's killing us second season people.
2. Randy Johnson SP-AZ (234) � The D-Rays even beat him.
3. Lyle Overbay 1B-MIL (185) � Like that road trip to Colorado and Pittsburgh next week.
4. Carl Pavano SP-FL (83)
� Three-hit shutout got some people�s attention.
5. LaTroy Hawkins RP-CHC (69) � Better to jump on this train sooner rather than later.
6. Alex Rodriguez SS-NYY (61) � Surpasses DiMaggio with his 362nd home run this week, and he doesn't turn 29 till next month.
7. Ben Sheets SP-MIL (60)
� Still starting on only 20 percent of the top rosters.
8. Dan Kolb RP-MIL (53) � Three Brewers make the list this week, the apocalypse must be near.
9. Vic Martinez C-CLE (52) � Provided immediate dividends with a 4-4 night.
10. Joe Nathan RP-MN (51) � Think Brian Sabian won�t be second guessed for keeping Herges over Nathan??


DROPS

1. Arthur Rhodes RP-OAK (322) � Becomes a Rhodes less traveled.
2. Brandon Webb SP-AZ (115) � Very competitive for the #2 spot this week.
3. Kevin Brown SP-NYY (114) � His days as an ace appear over.
4. Vernon Wells OF-TOR (113) � That weight loss deal didn�t work out so good.
5. Alex Cintron SS-AZ (69) � Two D-Backs among the top five drops, the curse of Sexson in full bloom.
6. Shawn Chacon SP-COL (64) - You would think the grand slam to Brian Roberts would be the last straw as a closer.
7. Carlos Delgado 1B-TOR (50) - Jays plummet as Rays soar.
8. Octovio Dotel RP-HOU (42) - Not quite getting the saves of others who come at a lower price.
9. Josh Phelps 1B-TOR (41) - Jays are to this list what Brewers are to the adds.
10. Troy Glaus 3B-ANH (38) - Sneaks on the drop list for yet another week.


WEEK 13 PREVIEW

SEVEN GAMES: BAL, TB, TOR, KC, SEA, TX, PHI, ATL, FL, MTL, MIL, PIT, AZ, SD

HOME: ATL, PHI, CHC, PIT, AZ, COL (Milwaukee and Detroit visit Colorado)

ROAD: BAL, BOS, TOR, CWS, CLE, TX

In contrast of this coming weekend, the NL teams (except LA @ ANH) host the weekend interleague games.

BEST TWO START BET: Randy Johnson has been a mild disappointment the last couple times out (guess I�m expecting another perfect game). Smart money has him righting the ship at home v. the Padres and Twins.

SECOND BEST BET: After seeing him shut down the Braves this week, you can�t go against Brad Penny again. 1 cents second start will come against Tampa Bay at home.

THIRD BEST BET: Tampa Bay is no longer a gimme, but Roy Halladay helped snap the Rays 12-game winning streak this week. Halladay�s second start will be at home v. the Expos where he should go ape.

TWO START TO AVOID: Ben Sheets made me look foolish earlier this month, but I�ll risk getting burned again. Sheets Coors Field assignment gets tougher with the Rockies back at full strength, if he gets through that he should do well in Pittsburgh, although the Brewers seem to have their share of troubles there.


CDM FREE AGENT LIST (RECOMMENDED IN BOLD)

C - Jorge Posada (1140) - Despite my predicted All-Star birth, I don't recommend him. If you really want a more expensive catcher Javy Lopez comes cheaper.
1B - Euribiel Durazo (620) - Better than Craig Wilson, but not the value of Ortiz/Overbay.
2B - Michael Young (1140) - Already on most rosters.
3B - Corey Koskie (1170)
- 11 HR, but hitting under .250
SS - Tony Womack (810) - Will get you steals, just not Brian Roberts steals.
OF - Pat Burrell (820) - Borderline as far as this game is concerned, still feels like an 0-30 waiting to happen.
OF - Melvin Mora (740) - It appears he will be back by next week.
SP - Roger Clemens (1130)
- Have a feeling he's already hit the wall, if he struggles at home v. Pittsburgh that's a very bad sign.
SP - Tom Glavine (850) - Actually like him over the Rocket right now, and doesn't have a lot of ownership.
RP - Armando Benitez (1300) - Best value of the week.



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