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2004 KAC BASEBALL BLUE SHEET - WEEK 12


ODDS ARE LONG AGAINST DIMAGGIO'S RECORD BEING BROKEN...



For several years now, MLB.com has ran a contest where contestants pick one player per day with the only object being for that player to get at least one hit. The first player to simply compile a 57-day hitting streak collects a $10,000 bounty. Remember, you can choose any player � whether it happens to be someone whose game is in Coors Field that day (I can see another editorial from the firefighting community now), or simply a player facing a scrub just up from the minors. Sure there are days with partial schedules which dilute the talent pool, plus you are O.O.L if the game your player is in gets rained out or if your man happens to be hurt or is getting the day off. But one player per day getting a knock for eight weeks � collecting 10K couldn�t possibly be any easier. To date no one has ever collected on the prize�

So what makes you think that Carlos Lee was going to be any different???

Lee�s 28-game streak went by the boards this week as his White Sox were on a receiving end of a three-hit shutout. Still, Lee managed to break the team record � pretty impressive considering the Southsiders have been in business for 104 years. Albert Belle had a 27-game streak a few years back along with Luke Appling back in 1936. But then again this is a franchise so desperate for icons that they retired Harold Baines number days after trading him back in 1989 � after Baines had spent all of ten years with the team.

But that�s beside the point; Joe DiMaggio�s 56-game hitting streak remains one of the most amazing records in any sport. True, no one will ever pitch three no-hitters in a row, and any pitcher who gets even half of Cy Young�s 511 wins has to be considered a H.O.F candidate. But Johnny VanderMeer�s accomplishment came over two games while any reference to Cy Young�s era is simply apples-to-oranges.

The truth is, it takes (a) a great pure-hitter and/or (b) a lead-off man (who is most likely to get an extra in a game) with speed to obtain any sort of sustained streak. It is of little surprise that Pete Rose (44 games) and Paul Molitor (39) have the longest streaks of the past generation. Both were exceptional hitters and capable of legging out hits when all else failed. Luis Castillo (another lead-off hitter) had the most recent long streak with 35 just two years ago. Jeff Kent saw a 25-game streak end in the last week while Kenny Lofton (26 games) had the longest streak of last year.

Other lengthy streaks of recent years include Albert Pujols (30) and Garrett Anderson (28), who both fall into the category of great #3 hitters. George Brett�s longest streak was 30 while Wade Boggs had 25 and 28 game streaks. Benito Santiago had an impressive 34-game run in 1987 a record for both rookies and catchers that will be hard to beat. Before Pete Rose, Tommy Holmes was the modern NL record holder with a 37-game streak, in a year in which Holmes hit .352 with 28 HR/117 RBI. But that kind of gets an asterisk since that was in 1945, a war year. Although Holmes continued to be a .300 hitter when the varsity came back in �46, he never hit more than nine HR in a season again.

Going back to some of the earlier legends, George Sisler (who hit .420 one year) had streaks of 41 and 34. Ty Cobb had streaks of 35 and 40 while younger brother Dom DiMaggio hit in 34 straight for the Red Sox, proving once again that Boston is merely second best. During his .406 season of 1941 (the same year as Joe�s streak) Ted Williams mustered a 23-game streak, that was the longest of Williams� career.

So what are the odds of seeing a 56-game streak again, one analyst has figured out that if Joltin� Joe could play his career over again (12 years), he would obtain that streak once per 8,772 careers. More amazing was that after having the streak stopped only when Cleveland third baseman Ken Keltner made a pair of saves that an NHL goalie would be proud of, DiMaggio went on to hit in 18 additional straight games. So if not for Keltner it could have well been a 75-game streak, the odds of that for a DiMaggio-caliber player over 12 years would be 468,689-1!!!!!

Arguably, the hitter with the best 'chance' of equaling DiMaggio would probably be Ichiro, if he lasts a dozen years his chances are 6,944 to 1. If Pete Rose could had placed odds (not out of the question) in 1977 the day his streak began, the chances of hitting in the following 44 would be 267,976-1. And remember when veteran Rick Manning had the audacity to score the winning run from second base with Molitor in the on-deck circle??? Let�s revise history where Molitor gets his AB and gets 40, in which there would only be a 30 percent chance � the odds of hitting in those final 17 games would still be 309-1, meaning Molly�s odds had Manning stopped at third would had still been nearly 1,000-1.

DiMaggio�s streak going down??? Better try you luck with the winner of the play-in game for next year�s NCAA tournament instead.


ALL-STAR PITCHERS

Last week I projected the eight positional starters for the All-Star Game, this week I choose the 12 pitchers for each league, and next week I choose 12 reserves for each league, with each team getting one representative of course. I will also choose a pair of alternates for this week for when Barry Zito pulls out after pitching eight innings on the Sunday before the game.


AL

Javier Vazquez (NYY) � No longer baseball�s best kept secret, Vazquez is the only AL starter with a ratio under 1.

Pedro Martinez (BOS) � At 3.77, his ERA is up a run and a half from recent years, but Pete still leads the AL in strikeouts and is more than worthy for nomination.

Curt Schilling (BOS) � It�s possible that Schill could pull out over his bum ankle, but he also spent some of his early years in Houston so Schill will at the very least show up. Schill sports an 8-4 record and before getting roughed up at Coors Field his ERA, per usual was just a shade over three.

Roy Halladay (TOR) - Just off the DL, but now both Vernon Wells and Carlos Delgado are hurt, I don't see any alternatives.

Jake Westbrook (CLE) � It�s between him and C.C Sabathia to be the Tribe�s representative, myself I can�t ignore the 6-2 record, 2.70 ERA.

Tim Hudson/Mark Mulder (OAK) � Zito got off to a bad start this year, but Hudson and Mulder are a combined 15-4 with both sporting ERA�s under three.

Mariano Rivera (NYY) � Did you think he was on the downside of his career??? Sandman sports a 0.98 ERA and is on pace for 60 saves.

Francisco Cordero (TX) � Was doing just fine until I put him on my active roster this week, where he promptly coughed up a save opp in Cincinnati.

Joe Nathan (MN) � Twins closers are money, especially at home when they turn the ventilation full blast for the top of the ninth.

Keith Foulke (BOS) � Opponents hitting all of .169.

Francisco Rodriguez (ANH) � K-Rod had a good chance of going already, considering that they like to get at least one set-up man per league on the roster. But Rodriguez now will be closing for at least the next month with Troy Percival (inflamed elbow) out.

ALTERNATES

Kenny Rogers (TX) � What do you think the odds would be of Rogers being tied for the Major League lead in wins at this point?? Considering his home park raises ERA�s by about a half-point, the 39 year-old�s 3.71 ERA is actually quite good.

C.C. Sabathia (CLE) � Only a 4-3 slate, but the ERA has been under three most of the year.

Estaban Loaiza (CWS) � It�s between him and Carlos Lee being the White Sox representative, but his strikeouts are down and the ERA is up.

Freddy Garcia (SEA) � Huge bounce back year with a 3.23 ERA, too bad that the Mariners score as frequently as most NHL teams. With Ichiro around, Garcia�s chances of being Seattle�s representative are doubtful.


NL

Tom Glavine (NYM) � So much for writing him off as well. MLB leading 2.03 ERA, .92 ratio, and .184 opponents batting average would be career bests if he can keep it up.

Brad Penny (FL) � Steps up to the head of the Marlins rotation with Josh Beckett out, 2.62 ERA with 74 K�s in 86 IP. Manager Jack McKeon will make sure one of his starters makes the trip.

Zach Day (MTL) � It�s between Day and Brad Wilkerson for being the Expos representative. With a decent 3.51 ERA, I nominate Zach to hold down the fort in the NL bullpen just in case the game goes past 11 innings.

Carlos Zambrano (CHC) � Has become the Cub ace in the absence of Kerry Wood and Mark Prior, and is second in the NL in ERA. Fastball topped out at 99 MPH in his last outing.

Ben Sheets (MIL) � No problem picking a Brewers representative this year, safe to say Big Ben is slightly more deserving than Jose Hernandez a couple years back.

Roger Clemens (HOU) � Will be the NL starter.

Randy Johnson (AZ) � Just the perfect game seals his nomination. Leads the world at age 41 with 109 strikeouts.

Jason Schmidt (SF) � Has won his last eight decisions.

Armando Benitez (FL) � Not so maligned these days.

Danny Graves (CIN) � Has gotten plenty of save chances while issuing only four free passes in 38.1 IP.

Eric Gagne (LA) � Only 16 saves, but there�s no way you don�t take him.

Akinori Otsuka (SD) � Padres are usually money when leading after six, this eighth inning specialist is a big reason why. Definitely the Padres MVP at this point.

ALTERNATES

Matt Clement (CHC) � Over a strikeout per inning and opponents are only hitting .213.

Carl Pavano (FL) � 7-2 record and three-hit shutout lowers his ERA to 2.81, he�s in this conversation.

Dan Kolb (MIL) - Except for not striking out anybody, Kolb's stats are favorable to Gagne, has 40 saves in the last calander year.

Billy Wagner (PHI) - Just off the DL, but it's going to be hard to keep the ex-Astro and his triple-digit heat back home.

Joe Kennedy (COL) � An option over taking Todd Helton from a crowded first base field.


TOP ADDS (FA's in bold)

1. Mark Prior SP-CHC (312) � Don�t expect long outings, was pulled after 90 pitches on Monday.
2. Scott Podsednik OF-MIL (219) � The need for speed.
3. Matt Clemenet SP-CHC (187) � Has their ever been a staff with four challenge-worthy starters.
4. Carlos Zambrano SP-CHC (141)
� See Clement comment.
5. Jason Schmidt SP-SF (138) � 12 K�s v. Blue Jays.
6. Roger Clemens SP-HOU (122) � Starting to slow down.
7. Scott Rolen 3B-STL (67) - #1 raker this year.
8. Ken Griffey Jr. OF-CIN (48) � Still starting on only 20 percent of full-season rosters.
9. Jeremy Affeldt SP-KC (47) � Royals so impressed with him as a closer that they pink-slipped Curtis Leskanic.
10. Jerry Hairston 2B-BAL (45) � Getting a lot of pick-ups even though he�s just a utility player at this point.


DROPS

1. Kevin Brown SP-NYY (193) � On DL for seventh time in last six years.
2. Shawn Chacon SP-COL (162) � Two saves thus far this week, albeit shaky.
3. Juan Gonzalez OF-KC (106) � Four year-old attending Rangers game is robbed of a foul ball, was offered an autographed bat from Gonzo from the back room, bad deal.
4. Brandon Webb SP-AZ (97) � Walked five in five innings v. the Yanks.
5. Arthur Rhodes RP-OAK (62) � Was ejected from a game before going home to Texas to tend to a personal matter. Oakland�s bullpen is a mess right now.
6. Richard Hidalgo OF-HOU (54) � Hidalgo involved in trade rumors, Jason Lane a good waiver wire pick-up right now.
7. Carlos Delgado 1B-TOR (52) � Off the DL, but not 100 percent.
8(T). Troy Glaus 3B-ANH (51) � You know the story.
8(T). Joe Borowski RP-CHC (51) � Diagnosed with a partially torn rotator cuff. Borowski hopes to be back in a month, but don�t expect LaTroy Hawkins to lose his closers job.
10. Angel Berroa SS-KC (48) � Showing signs of life with 3 HR in the last week, and that doesn�t count a Grand Slam he just missed.


OTHER NOTES

Hopefully you got my drift on this way back in January, anyone with a moniker of Mr. Zero has to eventually get the nod over Billy Koch (a.k.a �Mr Crooked Number�). Sure enough, Shingo Takatsu became the new White Sox closer this week while Koch went to the other clubhouse after being traded to the Marlins. Richard Hidalgo also did indeed get traded to the Mets on the same day. My �No-Orioles rule� stays intact � Melvin Mora sprains his foot (shades of Jerry Hairston from last year), most likely costing him the weekend series at Coors Field. Rockies outfielder Preston Wilson went 7-15 with a home run in a AA rehab assignment, he should be back in Colorado in a couple of weeks. Besides the historical ties between the Yankees and Dodgers, this weekend�s interleague series also brings together two of the greatest closers in recent memory with Mariano Rivera and Eric Gagne. There may be a milestone in store for Randy Johnson in the coming week, he is currently 20 strikeouts short of 4,000 on the year.


WEEK 12 PREVIEW

SEVEN GAMES: CWS, CLE, ANH, OAK, HOU, PIT, LA, SF

HOME: BAL, BOS, TOR, CWS, KC, TX

ROAD: ATL, PHI, CHC, PIT, AZ, COL

Note: The weekend games are interleague (rivalry weekend), with the exception of Pittburgh at Cincinnati and Anaheim at Los Angeles, all other games will be at AL venues.

BEST TWO-START BET: Curt Schilling, gets Twins and Phillies at home.

OTHER TWO-STARTS: Tim Hudson, Esteban Loiaza, Roy Oswalt, and possibly Mike Mussina


CDM FREE AGENT LIST (recommended buys in bold)

C � Ivan Rodriguez (1320) � Having a fantastic year, just too expensive.
1B � Lyle Overbay (400) � Still on pace for 100+ RBI.
2B � Ronnie Belliard (590)
� Having a career year, but still doesn�t get you power or speed.
3B � Hank Blalock (850) � Now a Blalock autographed bat would hit the spot.
SS � Alex Rodriguez (2010) � On pace for his highest steal total since 1998.
OF � Juan Pierre (1470)
� His investment in attending Cris Carter�s speed camp has not paid off, a tell-tale sign was when he made a fantastic catch (keeping both feet in bounds) on a throw to second on an attempted steal.
OF � Jeromy Burnitz (810) � On the road this coming week, but four of the next six after that will be at home.
SP � Randy Johnson (1550) � Recommended.
SP � Rich Harden (720)
� Coming along fine, averaging a strikeout per inning � but too inconsistent at this point.
RP � Danny Graves (1070) � As long as the Reds slump doesn�t become extended.





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