Atlanta Falcons



2003 KAC BASEBALL BLUE SHEET - WEEK 12


Even after all these years, Maddux still won't throw to Javy...



Points to ponder while celebrating the scoreless rack registered by Toronto closer Cliff Politte, which in Second Season lowered his ERA from 63 to 31.5 while his ratio goes down from an even 10 to 5.5�

Atlanta catcher Javy Lopez, whom I considered 'a decent option' for Second Season last, became way much more than that with a truly remarkable tear of 11 home runs in 12 games while while going 20-44 (.455). Is this reminding anyone of what a recently disgraced Chicago Cub did about five years ago at this time??? Obviously no one gets much hotter than that. But there has always been one factor that has slightly curtailed Javy�s ceiling for virtually all of his 10-year MLB career. That is because #1 starter Greg Maddux has steadfastly requested his own personal catcher, or anyone other than Lopez. Whether it is Charlie O�Brien, Eddie Perez, Paul Bako, or Henry Blanco � they would be the ones behind the dish when #31 takes the bump. I wouldn�t put it past Maddux to request Bob Uecker before ever having to pitch to Lopez in an actual game. Come to think of it O�Brien/Perez/Bako/and Blanco (like Uecker) also have Milwaukee Brewer ties. I always knew the Brewmakers mere a farm team for someone!!!!!

But instead of becoming MLB�s version of Stockton to Malone (a moniker that is now given to the Astros Jeff Bagwell and Craig Biggio), Lopez mysteriously has to take a seat every fifth day until it is time for a pinch-hitting appearance or be a late-inning replacement once Maddux�s night is done. Chances are Annika Sorenstam will take on John Riegger's million dollar match-play dare before Lopez ever receives a pitch from Maddux. More puzzling is that the public has never really gotten an explanation for this. Maddux has also seemed to be likable and willing to work with anyone. Likewise, Javy Lopez has never seemed to be one with an attitude that might not agree with any member of a pitching staff. Other Brave starters over the years (Glavine, Millwood, Damian Moss, John Smoltz, et al) have never stated to have a qualm with Lopez � at least publicly. The only plausible explanation I�ve been given is that Lopez likes to catch �by the book�. In other words, not getting a foot outside the catchers box so Maddux could throw his trademark slider slightly outside the zone and still get the strike called (Questec machines be dammed) � which still doesn�t make a whole lot of sense considering Glavine has very much made his living with the same philosophy all these years.

So how much has this quasi-platoon has dented Lopez�s value??? If the Braves were in the American League, it would not be much (if at all) with the designated hitter. In fact in Atlanta�s current interleague swing through Oakland and Seattle, Maddux was scheduled to start twice � but Lopez served as the DH on Tuesday night and I imagine will on Sunday as well. But even in the NL the workload is not dented by much. Catchers, like NHL goalies have this in common (besides the masks) � they do not play every night and need regular rest. In particular Sunday is never a good day if you�re planning to head to the ballpark if you want to see your favorite backstop perform � as that�s the day they are rested by many managers after Friday (and often Saturday) night games. That adds up to approximately 25 games per year. Also, catchers rarely work both ends of a double-header which typically knocks off another 3-4 games per year.

Greg Maddux on the other hand has started on the average 34 games per year. Other than that Lopez usually only gets rested in a double-header situation. And then there are the 2-3 games in AL parks per year where Lopez can DH. So in theory Lopez starts 125-130 games (when healthy) per year while a Mike Piazza starts (again when healthy) starts 130-135 games, so you�re only losing a handful of AB�s annually. For the record Lopez�s career high in games played is 138 in 1996, while single-season AB�s top out at 489 in 1996 and �98. Lopez (like Piazza) have never made an appearance at first base in their careers, so both lose out a little to the likes of Dodger catcher/1B Paul LoDuca (who logged 580 AB�s in 2002 thanks to occasional appearances at 1B and the outfield) along with Ivan Rodriguez (who often DH�d in his Texas days) and Jorge Posada (who also sees occasional 1B/DH time).

In conclusion, Javy Lopez�s AB�s do get handicapped to a small extent, not so much by not working with Maddux � but by being in the National League and by being exclusively a catcher. But considering Lopez has a chance at a 40 home run season, few are complaining right now.


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Those who entered the CDM Second Season challenge and started Lopez for the first week, despite the fact that he missed the first couple of games due to injury, were paid off handsomely. There�s also a much broader range of selections in 2nd season than usual. Here are the most popular choices of the current top 250 contestants�

C � Lopez is starting on 184 out of the 250 this week. That number is skewed somewhat (as opposed to the total overall percentage) since Javy had a huge hand in bringing many of those teams towards the top 250. Javy also had a lot of pick-ups this week along with many teams bringing him up on Monday from the taxi squad. In a huge surpise, San Francisco�s Benito Santiago (.300/26/9/36) edges several as the #2 catchers being on 63 rosters, followed by Mike Lieberthal (62), Jorge Posada (53), A. J Pierzynski (37) and Toby Hall (26). Surprisingly, Ivan Rodriguez only starts on 16 of the top 250.

1B � Now up to 70 RBI on the year, it is no surprise that Carlos Delgado starts on an even 90 percent (225/250) of the top rosters. What is eye-opening is red-hot Aubrey Huff (149) is far more popular that full-season fixture Erubiel Durazo (45). With the Rockies on the road this week, Todd Helton only appears on 49 rosters.

2B � Another head-scratcher. Alfonso Soriano is only starting this week on 239 of the top 250, about 11 less than I expected. He is followed by 400K bargain Brian Giles 164. I haven�t talked much about Seattle�s Bret Boone who like in 2001 has become a four-category monster (.320/52/17/50) and is #3 with 97 plays. Boone is on pace for 44 HR/131 RBI, very close to his 37 HR/141 RBI 2001 season which I personally thought he would not come close to again.

3B � Hank Blalock (232/250) was as solid as expected, followed by Mike Lowell (124), Aaron Boone (67), and Scott Rolen (47). Expect Mark Teixiera (only on 8 of the top 250) to become one of the top pick-ups in coming weeks.

SS � Rafael Furcal does the near unthinkable (even in the salary-cap challenged 2nd season game) edging out heavyweights Nomar Garciaparra and Alex Rodriguez. Furcal starts on 175 teams compared to Nomar�s 174. Arod appears on 70 teams, followed by Florida�s Alex Gonzalez (50) and Edgar Renteria (42).

OF � Top plays are Vernon Wells (232), Gary Sheffield (219), Corey Patterson (217), Albert Pujols (176), Austin Kearns (167), Juan Gonzalez (132), Preston Wilson (112 with COL on the road), Carl Everett (97) and Rocco Baldelli (85). Surprisingly, LA leadoff threat Dave Roberts only starts on 34 rosters this week while Alex Sanchez (11 SB�s in as many games for Detroit) only appears on 11 of the top 250.

SP � As is the case in full-season, Mark Prior (212 starts this week of 246/250 who have him on their rosters) is the top dog, followed by Kevin Brown (211/235), Jason Schmidt (212/232), Kevin Millwood (93/207), and Kerry Wood (89/186). Was surprised at the amount of plays with red-hot St. Louis hurler Woody Williams (125/174), and Estaban Loiaza (137/161) � who were more popular than Mike Mussina (93/131), Matt Morris (19/127), and Mark Mulder (34/78).

RP � As expected, Eric Gagne (221) and John Smoltz (159) were nabbed despite their price along with bargain Tim Worrell (223). Most teams went in a myriad of directions after that with a group headed by Montreal�s Rocky Biddle (103), followed by Billy Wagner (83), Eddie Guardado (58) and Joe Borowski (54). My Cliff Politte appears on only six of the top 250.


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Yahoo has bumped of the start of their mid-season fantasy baseball game, which starts this coming weekend as opposed to the first game after the all-star break as had been the case in previous years. What is remarkable are the top names on my cheat sheet right now, as opposed to back in March. In many ways it mirrors the differences in most rosters in the Full and Second-season challenges. I have Soriano and Arod 1/2 � as they were in March. However following them are Al Pujols (had in the mid-teens in pre-season) followed by Eric Gagne, Carlos Delgado, Gary Sheffield and John Smoltz. I don�t think I can recall a time I ever had two closers among my top-seven in any fantasy list. Vernon Wells, Carlos Beltran, and Mark Prior round out my top ten. I have Barry Bonds all the way down at #24 as I�m expecting more injuries out of him.

Another truly remarkable feat occurred in New York this past week when six Astros pitchers combined to no-hit the Yankees for the first time since 1958. Most impressive was the work from set-up men Brad Lidge and Octovio Dotel, followed by closer Billy Wagner in the final four innings - culminated by Dotel and Wagner striking out eight Yankees in a row (Dotel was credited with a record-tying 4 K's in the eighth) before Hideki Matsui meekly grounded out to end the game. Wagner was clocked once at 101 MPH and twice at an even 100 during the ninth. I've made this point before, but Dotel and/or Lidge are fully capable of becoming successful closers should the team choose not to resign Wagner (a good possibility). The only bummer on the evening was Roy Oswalt re-aggrevating his groin injury, which caused the relief parade. Since Oz's first DL stint was 15 days, look for Oswalt to be now out until after the All-Star Break. Just how hot has Aramis Ramirez has been in the last month??? Try 40-85 (.471) since May 17. Although Juan Pierre (25 SB's) is running wild, some of the worst fears of the Florida managerial switch has indeed manifested itself as Jack McKeon has taken the green light away from Pudge Rodriguez and Derrick Lee.

I have only seen one replay of the Kerry Wood/Hee Seop Choi collision � and fortunately it was in slow motion. I don�t even want to see that at full speed and thankfully I did not see it live as I would had been convinced that Choi was dead. That back of HSC�s head hit that basepath with frightening velocity. Fortunately, Eric Karros will hold down the first base fort in Chicago for the time being � look for the popular Choi to start becoming a fantasy force starting next year. Alex Rodriguez (bruised knee) returned to the Rangers lineup this week but Juan Gonzalez (sore elbow) is now out. Speaking of first-round fantasy picks gone flat, there is no timetable yet on Vladimir Guerrero, now diagnosed with a herniated disc. Do not expect that to be anytime soon. How different is AL ball to NL ball??? There have been 430 sacrifice bunts in the NL this year, as opposed to 205 in the AL. Yes a couple of extra teams, as well as interleague games played in NL parks, skew that stat somewhat � but it is still at least a 50 percent increase. So what causes more scoring, games in the NL bandboxes or contests played in AL parks with the DH in place??? Last week the 89 games in NL parks produced an average of 10.40 runs per games while Tuesday�s 14 games in American League venues only produced an average of 9.36.

It rained on Funny Cide�s Triple Crown attempt, but Albert Pujols is proving to be much more than a gelding and appears to be making a run at baseball�s first Triple Crown since 1967, not to mention getting a whiff at the magic .400 level � always a big deal anytime that�s approached from June on. Pujols, along with Javy Lopez and Tim Worrell were on CDM�s Free Agent list this past week, thus it was no surprise whom the top pick-ups were�

ADDS

  1. Tim Worrell RP-SF (591) � He and Gagne solved are solving plenty of bullpen woes.
  2. Albert Pujols OF-STL (512) � I wasn�t going to say anything, but a .727 slugging percentage ain�t right.
  3. Javy Lopez C-ATL (457) � Furcal, Giles, Sheff, Chipper, and now this. Like I said, the A-T-L is finished.
  4. Gary Sheffield OF-ATL (164) � Plunking Mike Matheny at every opportunity is one thing, but Julian Tavarez should know plunking Sheff is a potentially grave mistake.
  5. Kevin Brown SP-LA (122) � Starts in Detroit are always nice.
  6. Carlos Delgado 1B-TOR (117) � How much is his season being noticed??? Delgado has even gotten the love of the fans and leads the first base voting in the AL. Never mind that Delgado�s on pace for 174 RBI while Giambi is hitting .230.
  7. John Smoltz RP-ATL (84) � Becoming a factor in the full-season game as well.
  8. Hank Blalock 3B-TX (84) � It�s a natural for someone named Hank to play in Texas.
  9. Mike Lowell 3B-FL (71) � Now starting on 15 percent of full-season rosters.
  10. Woody Williams SP-STL (68) � If the 2.33 ERA/1.04 ratio doesn�t impress you, taking a no-no into the eighth v. the vaunted Blue Jay offense will. At age 36, is suddenly becoming Kevin Brown-like nasty.


DROPS

  1. Matt Mantei SP-AZ (418) � Here�s a shock, Mantei had a setback � don�t be surprised is he�s finished for the year.
  2. Vladimir Guerrero OF-TOR (309) � Does John Hunt still adore him???
  3. Pat Burrell OF-PHI (163) � He is over .200.
  4. Eric Hinske 3B-TOR (128) � Sorry you�re missing the party in T.O.
  5. Joe Crede 3B-TOR (125) � He and Hinske have become inseparable on this list.
  6. Curt Schilling SP-AZ (125) � Craig Rondinone (Roto by the #�s) was wondering the same thing as me. How could someone�s hand not be diagnosed as broke on Sunday (before the deadline), and suddenly be so on Tuesday??? Only in the fantasy world.
  7. Randy Johnson SP-AZ (79) � You never envisioned Schill and Unit being attached on this list.
  8. Hideki Matsui OF-NYY (76) � Bambi is suddenly becoming Godzilla, after going on a 12-17 tear with 2 HR and 5 RBI. Is also third in the AL in doubles as his BA has risen to .280. Like Aramis Ramirez, many may start to regret this drop.
  9. Josh Phelps 1B-TOR (72) � Another drop I�m not so sure of. Expect much more than the 30 RBI he has so far in the loaded Jay lineup.
  10. Josh Beckett SP-FL (70) � Project return around the All-Star break at the latest. Reported no ill-effects after throwing curveballs this week.



WEEK 12 PREVIEW

Anytime the Colorado Rockies have seven games, all at home, against anyone in a certain week it must be noted. When those seven games are against the Padres and Tigers - it becomes the mother of all Yahtzees. Also look out for the Yankees the next two weeks - with eight of 14 games v. the Devil Rays. That should be fun. There will even be some action on Monday as NYM, FL, CHC, CIN STL, MIL, SD. BOS, CWS, MN, KC, ANH, SEA, TB, and NYY are all slated for seven games as well. Besides the Rockies, teams at home for the entire week include PIT, FL, PHI, MIL, LA, and OAK while SF, TB, TOR, CLE, BOS, MN, and ANH are on the road. 12 of the 14 inter-league series for next weekend (geographic rivalry mode) will be in NL venues sans the DH. The exceptions are SF @ OAK and HOU @ TX. Most notable two-time starters include Roy Halladay, Kevin Brown, Brett Myers and possibly Barry Zito. Matt Morris also gets a nice start in MIlwaukee.

It could be Jungle Karma for a couple members on this week's CDM Free Agent list...

C � Paul LoDuca (840) � He is hitting .330, but only with four HR�s, which is a weekend�s worth from Javy Lopez at 750.
1B � Carlos Delgado (1420) � Safe to say the number of hits for him this weekend will be off the charts.
2B � Michael Young (590) � Hitting .329 and is an UCSB alum, so I�m sure Rome is trying to set up an interview with him as I speak. Also gets occasional HR�s (5) and SB�s (5).
3B � Troy Glaus (1380) � BA above .290, so look for Rome to line him up right behind Young. Has also pitched in a surprising 7 SB�s along with 14 HR and 43 RBI.
SS � Edgar Renteria (1230) � This weeks Cardinals/Red Sox series gave everyone a good chance to size up Edgar (.333/38/6/45/9) along with Nomar Garciaparra (.326/55/10/44/5).
OF � Moises Alou (1160) � Playing some of his best ball since coming to Chicago (.302/31/7/38), but you can find better power/speed for this price.
OF � Raul Ibanez (800) � Sequel to last year�s breakout campaign not quite up to snuff (.274/36/8/31). Again, better options are available.
SP � Mark Mulder (1060) � Don�t downgrade him too much from his two rough outings last week. He�s one of the best and will bounce back.
SP � Damian Moss (710) � An ugly 1.63 ratio and just walks to many people. Opponents BA have also risen from .221 last year to .272.
RP � Lance Carter (800) � Firmly entrenched now as D-Rays closer. Better options for same price available (Worrell, Borowski, Biddle, Politte) for closers on more successful teams.





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