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2002 FANTASY BASEBALL WEEK 11 PREVIEW - WHAT TO WATCH FOR

Schill working on historic season...

When proclaiming last week that every potential rookie prospect for 2002 had officially crapped out last week, I forgot to scour the trash bin one last time, because I obviously missed someone � even though he does not officially qualify as a rookie. At this point, I will compare the stats of D-Back second baseman Junior Spivey with that of teammate Luis Gonzalez, along with fellow second sackers Jeff Kent, Brett Boone, and Alfonso Soriano�

PLAYER
BA
R
HR
RBI
SB
J. SPIVEY
.327
45
7
39
7
L. GONZALEZ
.291
37
11
36
4
J. KENT
.277
33
8
32
2
A. SORIANO
.319
46
15
39
16
B. BOONE
.249
32
8
39
5

Now is time to judge Spivey along with the others on the list, beginning with a one-on-one matchup with L-Gon. First off, I must point that this is the same Junior Spivey who is featured on the cover of the Tucson Sidewinder pocket schedule, because, that�s where he was ticketed to be this year. Notice that Spivey holds a significant edge to L-Gon (.327/.291) in batting average. Spivey also holds a decent edge (45/37) in runs scored, along with 7 steals to Luis� four. But what about the power stats??? Gonzalez hit 57 bombs and drove in 142 last year, there is no way that a punch and judy hitter like Junior Spivey could even come close to matching that. Well, let�s see � Luis has 11 bombs and 36 RBI so far, not up to 2001 standards, but still on pace for 30+ HR�s and over 100 RBI. That doesn�t sound like potential Junior Spivey numbers. But Junior has 7 HR�s and 39 RBI, four less homers than his more publicized teammate but actually three more ribbies!!!!! So, all told Junior has the edge in BA, SB, runs, and RBI, while Luis only has a slight advantage in home runs. Not to mention that Gonzalez is in the plentiful outfield position while second basemen with eye-catching offensive numbers can be hard to come by. And just over two months ago L-Gon was a second round fantasy draft pick while Spivey probably went undrafted in most leagues. This may be the ultimate �who knew�.

I threw Kent, Boone, and Soriano into the equation for even more comparions. In 52 games Jeff Kent is not having a horrible year himself, and is on pace again for 20+ HR�s while approaching 100 RBI and runs, still Junior is blowing him out of the water. Same goes with Brett Boone, even though he is on pace for over 100 RBI/runs himself, his .255 BA puts Brett even behind Kent. Alfonso Soriano meanwhile has developed into a five-category stud and a fantasy (and potential AL) MVP, but at least we�ve seen his development even since he popped heads with a strong Spring Training in 2001. But even then, though Soriano holds a definite edge in steals, and homers, Spivey actually is dead even in runs, ribbies, and BA.

Oh, and one last thing, considering that this is draft week, Spivey was a 36th round draft choice. Like I�ve said before, if you�re looking for the next stud, check the trash bin.


***



During the 1990�s I was constantly amazed by Greg Maddux�s strikeout-to-walk ratio. At one point during the 1995 season Maddux had a 10-1 K-to-walk ratio, at that point I decided to do some Tim Kurkjian-like research on my Franklin baseball calculator/encyclopedia, looking up the best single-season K-to-walk ratio in history (minimum 150 or 200 innings, I forget which I put in). To my amazement, the only 10-1 ratio over the entire season belonged to someone from the 1880�s, which I quickly discounted (mound distance was shorter, and it took anywhere from 5-8 balls to get a walk). The best K-to-walk ratio in the modern era (post-1900) belonged to Ferguson Jenkins in 1971, who had 263 K�s v. 37 walks, a 7.1-1 ratio. Maddux would end up walking 23 in 1995, against 181 strikeouts, a 7.87-1 ratio.

I mention this because Curt Schilling has become insane. Several people are bringing up the possibility of Schill, who has 11 wins already, winning 30 games this year. Most opinions (mine included) find that nearly impossible, in the era of the five-man rotation. Best case scenario has a few frustrating no-decisions along the way preventing that. You do not see many pitchers these days accumulate 30 decisions, in a year, let alone all of them being wins. But the stat that Schill has truly reached the realm of the paranormal in, is that he has struck out 131 batters this year while walking only eight!!!!! That is over 16-1, in other words totally unheard of, especially in this hitter-friendly era. In 2001 Schill K�d 293 while walking 39, a 7.51 ratio. Then there is the WHIP, good enough in �01 at 1.08, but taken up about three levels this year at .83. If playing a mid-season league, one would be wise to rank Schill as the #1 pitcher, and that�s above Unit and Pedro. What he�s doing right now is downright historic.


***



STRAT-O-MATIC ON-LINE!!!!!

And there is nothing like an old-fashioned 23-2 rout to bring to light someone totally omitted from my second season preview last week. A 4-6 night, with a homer and 5 RBI, now puts OF Jacque Jones at .306/38/11/43/4, right on par with teammate Torii Hunter (.307/40/14/39/8). Amazingly only five of the top 250 teams playing the full-season challenge is playing Jacque at 800, as opposed to about a third of the top teams playing Torii at .306. And both Twins are outperforming Adam Dunn (710/.302/33/11/37/6) If you�ve already grabbed TH, you may want to add JJ to your collection. Or even if you don�t have Hunter, grab JJ in hopes of him outperforming Torii the rest of the way.

One last note from the 23-2 game, 2B Luis Rivas came off the DL and also went 4-6, with 5 runs and 5 RBI. If desperate for a second-sacker, scour the waiver wire for him.


***

In last year�s Week 11 column, you may have remember me drooling over the talent in last year�s amateur draft, which started with pitcher Mark Prior (now with the Cubs) and included a couple of high-school 100 MPH flame-throwers among other things. This year�s draft did not provide nearly as much jaw-dropping talent. Pittsburgh had the first pick and took a 6�5� right-hander named Bryan Bullington who does not seem like anything that special. He does have a 94 MPH heater, and did go 11-3 with a 2.84 ERA, with 139 K�s v. 18 walks in 104 2/3 innings pitching collegiately this past year. For those not that familiar with the draft, teams draft not necessarily �the best player available�, but the �most signable�. Hence, a small-market team is likely to tab a very good (but not exceptional) prospect that they can sign for less money than a blue-chipper represented by super a-hole agent Scott Boras, who historically holds teams hostage (see Phillies/J.D. Drew) while the player uses the leverage of a college scholarship, or even in the case of #1 overall pick Josh Mauer (from last year), that big-time Florida St. football scholarship.

FIELDER
Like his dad, Prince has not missed many meals either...
Other highlights from the first round include two Canadian left-handers (Adam Loewen and Jeff Francis) being selected in the top-ten. In addition to being a lefty, Loewen goes 6-6, with those two attributes making him high in demand. But the most intriguing pick in my book goes to the player who had the misfortune of being drafted by Milwaukee, that being high-schooler Prince Fielder. Just like his dad (Cecil), Prince is plenty big (6-1/250) and has plenty of power, with a couple of his home runs this year measuring in the 500-foot range. Of course what happens in high school with aluminum bats, and what comes out with wooden bats in the pros are sometimes two different matters, but Prince should be fun to watch coming up.

One final note on the draft, #1 overall picks guarantee absolutely nothing. My favorite case-in-point were the Brewers selecting college catcher B.J. Surhoff in 1985. On paper it was the right move, a talented player at a scarce position. And it isn�t like B.J. didn�t go on to a decent MLB career, as there are many #1 overalls who never even made it to the bigs. It�s just that there was this hot-shot named Barry Bonds that was available. Oh well, just as what happened in Pittsburgh, he would had been out of that organization at the first opportunity.


OTHER NOTES

When do we start interupting reguarly scheduled programming for Ichiro's quest for .400??? A 13-23 surge has sent Ichiro's BA up to .376. And for even better news he his now hitting third, so expect the RBI's to go up at least for the short term. As if all his elbow problems weren't enough, it now appears that one-time Dodger ace Kevin Brown now has a herniated disk to deal with as well, his season could very well be over. Even more frustrating is that just as I warned last week, the blisters were getting to Florida phenom Josh Beckett once again. I wouldn't expect much from JB until after the all-star break. Also, don't be suprised if Pedro Martinez is on the shelf by this time last week, as the whispers about his shoulder has returned. Pedro gave up four first inning runs, before settling down v. Detroit. One of the Tigers coaches noted however that 'Pedro had the least amount of stuff he's even seen'. We've seen this flick before. Also, adjust downward your projections for Rockies outfielder Larry Walker, and not just because of the soggy baseballs he has to hit at home. LW's elbow is barking again, and it sounds as though he will be rested for one of every three games the rest of the way. We have seen that movie before too. Like Luis Gonzalez, put Phils outfielder Bobby Abreu in the category of 'quietly dissapointing', with only four home runs on the year, as opposed to 31 last year and 25 in 2000. And appearantly the Pads Ryan Klesko, like Shawn Green has decided not to steal bases anymore, with only one bag this year after stealing 23 the last two years.


WEEK 11 SCHEDULE

Thanks to interleague play, the schedule is very cut and dry for the next two weeks. Everyone plays six the next two weeks, with the exception of HOU/MIL who will play 7 in Week 12. All games Mon-Wed will be in AL parks (with the exception of CHC/HOU). Everyone is off Thursday (unless there are makeup games), before 'rivalry weekend', will all teams paired with an interleague 'superrival'. All of those games will be played in NL parks, as will all games in Week 12. Double duty pitchers include Greg Maddux, Randy Johnson, Derek Lowe, Barry Zito, Josh Fogg, Javier Vazquez, Bartolo Colon, and Mike Mussina.

CDM's free agent list for the week is as follows... (recommended purchases in bold)

C 1 PIAZZA, MIKE NYM 1460000
1B 110 THOMAS, FRANK CWS 1300000
2B 213 SORIANO, ALFONSO NYY 900000
3B 320 TATIS, FERNANDO MON 730000
SS 407 RENTERIA, EDGAR STL 1080000
OF 521 CAMERON, MIKE SEA 1370000
OF 582 DUNN, ADAM CIN 710000
SP 819 COLON, BARTOLO CLE 1090000
SP 864 BENSON, KRIS PIT 750000
RP 1136 GUARDADO, EDDIE MIN 900000


LATROY F. HAWKINS AWARD

In Spring Training Dodger fans were wondering why their team wouldn't trade unproven Eric Gagne to Florida for 'parts'. The Cubs though took the bait and traded for Antonio Alfonseca, a move that is coming to haunt them (just like everything else) more every day. You may not own him, but if you own Kerry Wood you are cursing him just the same as Alf blew a 2-run lead to the Brewers in the ninth this week. MIL eventually won in extra innings, the first game won after trailing going into the ninth since September 2000. And I think Alf needs to shed at least 30 pounds and maybe a finger or two while he's at it. Somewhere the 'Demon' is smiling...




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