It is now official, the Big Three have now all crashed and burned.
We got our first clue way back in April when Randy Johnson and Pedro Martinez gave up a combined 20 earned runs to the Brewers and Orioles in just a 24-hour period. The following week Curt Schilling rebounded from his own mediocre start with a solid outing, but not without a nagging pain in his side afterwards. Sure enough, two days later Schill would get his first stint on the DL following an appendectomy. Then Johnson skipped a start with a sore knee after the Milwaukee debacle. Unit would return for one solid outing but the knee soreness returns, leading to arthroscopic surgery and a more extended stint on the DL.
And then there is Pedro. As has been the case for several seasons now, something has bothered the Red Sox ace � and it is usually more than what is being let out officially. Whether it be a groin or a lat muscle, Pedro had not been himself and was finally scratched from a start v. the Yankees, which is enough cause for alarm. Despite endless �encouraging� reports, Pedro�s next start was pushed back before finally landing on the DL himself. The reports had Pedro returning this coming weekend in Milwaukee before a �discouraging� bullpen session pushed him back yet again.
The revised (for seemingly the umpteenth time) timetable has Pedro returning sometime next week when the team returns home, but don�t hold your breath too much. Talk is Pedro will be handled with kid gloves (expect 5-6 inning outings) and that the Sox will go with a 6-man rotation for the time being. Don�t be surprised if something else crops up, and Pedro ends up shutting down early. What will be interesting from a Fantasy Challenge perspective is when teams start feeling free to dump Pedro. Surprisingly, Pedro was still residing on 90 percent of challenge rosters as of this week. You have to wonder when the mass-dumping of Martinez will begin, I imagine that cannot be too far down the road as I don�t see him pitching complete game 2-hitters with 15 K�s anytime in the foreseeable future � which is what you need to justify his challenge salary of 1700.
There was still hope with Schilling, as bouts with Ques-tec machines notwithstanding was still having a fine year statistically, with a 3.04 ERA and an excellent .99 ratio. Schilling was cruising to an easy victory in San Diego this past Friday night which ended prematurely when a second come-backer was nabbed with his bare hand. The company line was that Schilling was taken out for precautionary reasons and that he would make his start as scheduled on Wednesday. But with the way things have gone lately one would had known better, that full disclosure had not gone out. On Monday it was announced that Schilling�s start was pushed back to Friday, while the team persuaded to have Schilling get the hand further checked out. Sure enough, news came on Tuesday that the hand, not unlike that Questec machine, was broken and now Schilling�s gone until after the All-Star break. What do they say about injuries/ailments (or blown appendixes) breeding other unrelated injuries. It seems to happen every time.
The latest news on Randy Johnson is not exactly promising neither. Unit was supposed to back from his scope job by mid-June, but yet more swelling was reported this week and Unit is now expected back �sometime beyond the latest estimate of late June. In other words All-Star break at the earliest. Which begs the following: Arizona is below .500, Schilling and Johnson are both out along with closer Matt Mantei who was DL�d on Sunday. Ex-closer/start Byung-Hyun Kim was traded away week, and the team has also lost set-up man Mike Koplove, rookie righthander Brandon Webb as well as infielder Craig Counsell in recent days. One could see Johnson shut down for the rest of the year while the prospects of Schilling being involved in a trade deadline (July 31) deal take a blow since he won�t be able to show he�s healthy until 7/15 at the earliest. Feel free to take that salary cap room and now place it on closers John Smoltz and Eric Gagne, who are now the surest things going.In the wake of the Shea Hillenbrand-Byung Hyun Kim trade, it was speculated that although Kim wishes to start, that he could end of being Boston�s closer. However, with the very iffy status of Pedro Martinez, expect Kim to start for the foreseeable future. Wonder why pitchers aren�t allowed to pitch complete games these days??? Look at Padre ace Brian Lawrence, who took 2-0 leads in consecutive outings into the ninth, and ended up losing both times. In any other year Trevor Hoffman would had been out there after one batter got on at the very latest. Lawrence was also bitten by a late-inning Shea Hillenbrand three-run blast in an inter-league game last year. He was DL�d with a shoulder strain this week, but keep an eye on Giant rookie Kurt Ainsworth, who has had a sub-3.00 ERA since late April.
Here�s a stat you can throw right down the toilet. Oakland�s Erubiel Durazo has driven 31 of his 38 RBI at home, and has a .554 slugging percentage at home as opposed to .425 on the road. Durazo also drove in 33 of his 48 2002 runs at home while with Arizona. I wouldn�t read too much into this, and would kind of put this in the category of being an anomaly. Considering moving Durazo from your lineup every time the A�s head out on the road is dangerous at best. In another weird home/road split, Rockies closer Jose Jimenez has a fine 2.25 ERA/1.25 ratio at home, but has a 12.00 ERA on the road with an even three WHIP, with the opposition hitting a cool .480. Last year Jimenez was 2.90/.89 at home but 4.36/1.55 on the road. Again, I would not try to get cute with this information. Then there is the plight of the NL Central, which has become the spitting image of pairity: the Cubs, Houston, St. Louis, Pittsburgh, and Milwaukee are all 5-5 in their last 10 games while Cincinnati has been 4-6. That should be the most competitive division race in the second half.
Jerry Hairston may have Wally Pipped himself out of a starting job as rookie Brian Roberts is hitting .314 in his first 12 big-league games, along with two homers, 12 runs, and 13 RBI along with 4 stolen bases. A five-category threat who will help you at least short-term until Hairston returns. Quick, who are the only two players leading their respective teams in runs, home runs, RBI, stolen bases, and batting average??? One is Alfonso Soriano, which obviously comes as no surprise. The other is the Cubs Corey Patterson, who seems to have the tag �five-tool player� applied everywhere he goes. And is there anyone hotter than Angels rookie Jeff DaVanon, who in a three-game stretch went 10-16 with 6 HR, 9 runs and 10 RBI while becoming the first player to hit homers from both sides of the plate since Ken Caminiti in September, 1995.
The first full night of CDM�s 2nd Season game was a weird one for most. If you had Mike Lowell (2 HR, 6 RBI) or Juan Gonzalez (3 run HR) chances are you were quite happy. However if you had Mark Mulder (8 ER, 12 hits, 2 walks in 3.2 innings), you most likely started in a hole. Matt Morris was moved up in the rotation (the info came out late Sunday) � making a pitching lineup of Jason Schmidt, Mulder, Mark Prior, Matt Morris, Kevin Millwood, and Odalis Perez possible for a combined 12 starts for the first week. However those six combined for an ERA near six along with a 1.50+ ratio in their first go around.
A trend that I've noticed in the roster composition of many 2nd Season teams is the amount of pitching depth on many teams, with as much as 11-12 pitchers active - which seems to be a wise move especially this year with no real must-have pitchers out there besides Kevin Brown and Mark Prior. Myself I went with 12 starting pitchers, down to 11 since I had Schilling on taxi (you knew that broken hand diagnosis would finally come down come Monday.
And then I saw a old-rival who has shown up in my league carrying 13 pitchers - and it was none other than the legendary GBU (Good, Bad, and Ugly), who has also named teams in the past after various Star Wars movies. This time around the team name is GBU's Revenge, and rumor has it that GBU has been busy compiling his roster at a table in a Pittsburgh-area Hooters. The team name no doubt refers to the revenge of all the rotten awful luck he has suffered for years now - including having a division title ($2,000) in hockey taken away after the season ended when CDM answered the cries of rivals concerning an assist that the NHL gave to a player (on GBU's roster) during a game a month earlier in a statistical foul-up which turned out to be the difference in an extremely tight race. Talk about your hanging chads. Also, GBU was Zeta Talk on the BBS board before there ever was Zeta Talk. I look for him to use up all of his drops by the All-Star break at the latest. I'm truly looking forward to the competition - it will be like taking on Mark McGwire look-alike Hamish McGregor in a round of match-play golf.
ADDS/DROPS
Why I tend not to over-stress the saves category too much. Over 20 percent, in just the top 250 kept DL�d closer Matt Mantei in their lineups this week (obviously not getting the news from late Sunday). If you were on the ball, you made the switch after Mantei had the arm checked out last week � or perhaps even replaced him after a started dropping a cylinder a few weeks earlier, and got a few extra saves over those teams. Not to mention all the dead teams (already) who will never bother making the switch). Look for Cincinnati�s Scott Williamson to be the next to go down, although he has righted the ship in the past week.
Next week I will dissect the initial roster composition for the 2nd season game. As far as full-season is concerned, I�m still waiting for Pedro and Adam Dunn (below .210) to make the drop list - here are the adds/drops for this week�Every team plays six games, with virtually all the venues at AL parks � so the DH will be in force. It will mostly be the pitchers going this Wednesday going a twice next week, a group headed by Mike Mussina, along with Tim Hudson, Wade Miller and Vicente Padilla. Other possibilities include Kevin Brown and Roy Oswalt.
Here is this week�s CDM Free Agent list�