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2004 KAC BASEBALL BLUE SHEET - WEEK 10


HERGES REMAINS A RISKY PROPOSITION...



As the weeks start to wear on, the frustration mounts. You try to remain patient and stand pat, you fall behind. You do your homework and acquire the players who are doing the best so far, and they tank (or get hurt or sick). No matter which way one turns, the fate appears to be the same. Here�s a brief diary of a fantasy owner at wit�s end�

LAST MONDAY - Benched Herges last week for Nathan so of course Herges wastes no time getting an easy save. Shawn Chacon's still (off-color comment deleted) in every single game that he has been a member of my roster. Looks like doing the right thing and being patient with Rhodes and Dotel was not the right thing to do. I guess I'll just go out and buy Graves for Dotel, bench Rhodes for Herges, and cut Chacon so they can all have a complete reversal of fortune. BLAH!!!!!

TUESDAY � Herges gets another save, what�s the odds of him saving games two days in a row??? BLAH!!!!!

WEDNESDAYLMFAO!!!, as I�m eating breakfast Herges gets a save, when I go to lunch I notice that Herges got two more saves, I hit the shower, turn on my computer and see Herges got another save. Herges has eight saves on the day, and the Giants game doesn�t even start till 10:00 PM ET!!! I wake up at 1 AM turn on the computer, and find that the Giants are leading 4-3 in the top of the ninth, but that the opposition has the bases loaded with none out. So what happens??? Strikeout, game-ending double play. Herges now has 23 saves in the last three days while Dotel, Rhodes, Chacon, and Kolb only have 11 saves in the last month combined � BLAH!!!!!

FRIDAY � I�m heading out of town for the weekend, so I have to make my moves today, which is just asking for trouble. Chacon has a 15.19 ERA when I play him, but has a 1.35 ERA with 25 strikeouts in 15 IP when I bench him. I don�t care, I�m dropping Chacon the Chicada for the fifth time this year, because I must have Ben Sheets and Roy Halladay for their two-start weeks. BLAH!!!!!

THIS TUESDAY - This just keeps getting better. I buy Sheets and sure enough, he suddenly gets sick while Halladay comes up with a sore arm. Then I make another burn for Rolen just in case he does drive in 180 runs this year, and he�s beaned in the head!!! Yup. But again, I made my moves on Friday � I�m surprised that half my team didn�t get killed by Sunday night. I guess some people STILL think this is all just a coincidence (Editors note: There are no coincidences.) And the best part about it all is that I saw it coming yet couldn't do anything to stop it. Once again my team is as good as any on the leaderboard, but for reasons beyond explanation, things don't work out. I really thought things would be different this year, I thought that I was finally going to end my 28-year losing streak, but I guess not. Poor me. BLAH!!!

THURSDAY - LMFAO!!! I knew it, Herges doesn't get in a game all week until he gets his mop-up situation, and as usual he gets lit up. I'm damned if I do and I'm damned if I dont. BLAH!!!


Herges is one of the wierder fantasy situations in quite some time, there was even a week when Herges nearly made the top add AND drop lists this month. His ERA and ratio are an absolute disaster, but comes a great price and racked up saves like crazy during the Giants 10-game winning streak. At this point I say reluctantly stay with Herges, at least if he gets shelled you won't be alone.

Now for the pitching injuries...

Ben Sheets � Actually started to have dizzy spells on Saturday, two days following his last start (where he sparkled on got the win). Sheets problem was not disclosed until Monday, when it was discussed during the Brewers radio broadcast, where by that time Sheets was barely able to lift himself off the clubhouse couch. Sheets was examined the next day by an ear specialist, where he was diagnosed with a nerve inflammation brought on by a virus. As of this writing, it is hopeful that Sheets will only miss one turn, but the optimism may be guarded. There is really no timetable on the recovery time, and the symptoms could continue for an extended time. A vertigo-like condition ended the career of Nick Esasky in its tracks back in 1990, and more recently derailed the career of golfer David Duval. This will be a tough situation to read, last word has Sheets feeling 'much better' and could possibly start next Tuesday in Anaheim, although he could also be retroactively DL'd and still return next weekend v. Houston. I would taxi for the coming week, if there is a silver lining the extra rest could be a blessing in disguise for his arm.

Roy Halladay � After pitching 266 innings last year, this shouldn�t come as too much as a surprise as a sore shoulder scuttled his scheduled start Tuesday in Seattle. The team is hopeful that Roy will miss only one start but manager Carlos Tosca noted that the doctor noticed �something going on� in the shoulder and that he wanted to take a �closer look at it�. The company line is that they will let the shoulder �quiet down� for a couple days then get a second opinion. The words �second opinion� and �there�s something going on� doesn�t seem to bode well. As with Sheets we should get a better read on this by the weekend. Mark this as yet more evidence on why starters should not be overworked.

Josh Beckett - It's back!!! Just when you thought it was no longer a concern Beckett comes down with a relapse of his 2002 blister problems. Becks immediately went on the DL while paving the way for the return of A.J. Burnett. As is the case with Sheets, Beckett's arm could probably use some time off anyways. Since the pickle juice didn't work this time perhaps Becks can take a cue from Moises Alou and soak his hand in something even more disgusting for the next two weeks.

There is positive news on the pitching front � Mark Prior struck out 10 in his last minor-league rehab assignment and is due to make his season debut on Friday. The Cubs June schedule is not easy, after facing the Pirates Prior�s next starts will be against St. Louis, Houston, Oakland, and probably the White Sox. Still, Prior was as good as anyone last year and it appears that it shouldn�t take long for Prior to once again reach that level. Burnett made his season debut in New York, throwing 83 pitches over four innings while allowing two runs. The good news was that Burnett, who has had control issues in the past, walked no one.


AMATEUR HOUR

In football the anticipation lasts for weeks and actually months, as hundreds of NFL hopefuls are scrutinized literally from head to toe. Baseball�s annual amateur draft occurs each June with much less fanfare, but is even more of a crapshoot than what we see from NFL first round draft choices.

In recent years there have been more hits than misses with the #1 overall choice, but there are even spectacular failures with the top pick. Recent #1 selections over the past 20 years include the following�



Whether to take the high-schooler with eye-popping credentials or the more-seasoned college player is a dilemma that major league organizations have been wrestling with even longer than the NBA. There is also the matter of agents along with a players �signability�. Some of the higher profiled-choices in recent years have been able to have their agents manipulate where their clients go (see J.D Drew, Mark Prior, Travis Lee). Alias, some of the smaller market teams look at the most affordable player rather than the best.

Some of the top choices available include�

Jared Weaver (RHP � Long Beach St.) � How�s this for coincidence, San Diego picks first while the Mets draft third. Is there any chance that Weaver will hold a press conference along with his older brother and dad suggesting that he would really like to pitch in New York and that he just might return to Long Beach for a senior season if the Padres have the nerve to draft him??? Weaver goes 6�7� Is 14-1 on the year with a 1.68 ERA and 193 K�s in 128 IP. Jeff Weaver went #14 to the Tigers in 1998, Detroit would consider themselves fortunate if they get Jared with the #2 pick.

Stephen Drew (SS � Florida St.) � The best five-category player available, hitting .359 on the year with 14 HR/50 RBI. Has also been successful on 55 of 61 steal attempts in his Seminole career. Coach says Drew has a firm grasp on the game, but some are concerned about previous injuries (broken foot in 2002) along with his commitment. Haven�t we heard this about someone else in that family???

Jeff Niemann/Wade Townsend/Phil Humber � College baseball�s version of Zito/Mulder/Hudson, this right-handed trio has put Rice University on the map as something else rather than the school Tommy Kramer played quarterback for before racking up DUI charges with the Vikings. Townsend (11-0, 1.68, 141 K�s in 112 innings) and Humber (13-2, 1,80, 141 K�s/105 IP) have the best numbers this year, but Niemann may be the most attractive prospect of all, going 6�9� with a 98 MPH heater and a nasty slider. A Roy Oswalt-like groin has curtailed this years #�s (5-3, 3.34).

Justin Verlander (RHP � Old Dominion) � Pre-Season All-American has struggled this year with a wild arm, resulting in a so-so 7-6 record along with a 3.49 ERA. Still ranked third in the nation with nearly 13 K�s per 9 IP. Still thought of as a top-five selection but may slide.

Homer Bailey (RHP � La Grange, TX) � Considered the best high-school pitcher available, Homer pitched 66 innings this past year. That means (barring dropped third-strikes) 198 strikeouts is the maximum possible, Homer struck out 156 while allowing only two earned runs. Has three pitches with a fastball topping out at 94. First gained notice by out-dueling Ryan Wagner (Reds 2003 first-round pick) as a freshman.

Matt Bush (SS � San Diego, CA) � The best position player among preps who also has a 94 MPH fastball, recording 15 K�s in a 7-inning one-hitter this year. However scouts like him more at shortstop where he possesses tremendous defensive skills.

Chris Nelson (SS � Decatur, GA) � Has tools comparable to Devil Ray prospect B.J Upton, but made two critical errors in his team�s playoff loss. Bounced back from Tommy John surgery last year.

Josh Fields (3B � Oklahoma St) � The best corner-power prospect available, you may know Fields better from being OSU�s starting quarterback the past two years, throwing to the likes of NFL draft pick Raushan Woods. Fields sparked a dramatic rally from seven runs down in the conference tourney with a late game double and home run.

Houston Street (RHP � Texas) � Another name known more from the world of college football, Houston�s dad was the resourceful wishbone quarterback of the legendary 1969 Texas national championship squad. Has been the Longhorn�s closer the past three years and could potentially have a career as a reliever in the majors.


OTHER NOTES

The biggest position player injury of the week occurred when Eric Chavez broke his hand getting hit by a pitch, putting the Oakland third baseman on the DL for the first time in his six year career. Alex Rodriguez went .333/8/22 for the month of May, but is still on pace to finish below 100 RBI. Derek Jeter going on a 16-33 tear should bode well for future Arod RBI opportunities. Jeremy Affeldt has racked up five quick saves and a win since becoming the Royals closer. He�s now the best option among listed starters in the Diamond Challenge. The big dogs all came through this week, Vladimir Guerrero had a career-high nine RBI game (off Pedro Martinez no less), Carlos Beltran emerged from a slump to rip nine RBI over six games, and Albert Pujols feasted on Pirate pitching to the tune of seven RBI over three games, including a 5-5 night. As if the absences of Sheets, Halladay, and Beckett aren�t enough, the Padres Jake Peavy is also out for an extended period of time with a bum elbow. The Royals Ken Harvey has caught Melvin Mora (.379) in the AL batting race, and Harvey thinks he is capable of winning the batting crown.


This weeks CDM pick-up/drop list is one of the wierder ones in recent memory, as the majority of the top adds have already been smashing dissapointments this week...

ADDS (FA'S IN BOLD)

1. Brad Penny SP-FL (396) � First start this week didn�t go so well with 1 cents velocity down.
2. David Ortiz 1B-BOS (307)Pretty safe pick-up here.
3. Ben Sheets SP-MIL (306) � Sucker-punch #1 of the week.
4. Miguel Cabrera OF-FL (205)Surprised there are actually that many who don�t own him.
5. Jose Mesa RP-PIT (202)More frustration as Mesa didn�t get a whiff as the Buccos were swept away by STL.
6. Adrian Beltre 3B-LA (176)I�ve stated my opinion here already, much better options available at third.
7. Johnny Estrada C-ATL (171)White hot, surprised that more didn't take him.
8. Danny Graves RP-CIN (161) � This one worked much better as he got saves in all three games in Florida.
9. Roy Halladay SP-TOR (125)Sucker-punch #2 of the week.
10. Vinny Castilla 3B-COL (120) � 0-8 in San Diego, but you can�t wait for him to get home.


DROPS

1. Brandon Webb SP-AZ (323) � Sophomore slump.
2. Troy Glaus 3B-ANH (308) � Safe to drop.
3. Juan Gonzalez OF-KC (218) � Guessing he will pull his Raul Mondesi family emergency any day.
4. Arthur Rhodes RP-OAK (195) � He�ll save a ton now.
5. Richie Sexson 1B-AZ (193) � Safe to drop.
6. Johan Santana SP-MN (161) � No hitting D-Rays for five innings before imploding in the sixth a microcosm of his season.
7. Orlando Hudson 2B-TOR (146) � Those who plucked him off the FA list two weeks ago regretted it.
8. Octovio Dotel RP-OAK (117) � Another one who will come back to bite.
9. Shawn Chacon SP-COL (107) � This closer is safe to drop.
10. Marcus Giles 2B-ATL (102) � Remains on 40 percent of the top rosters.


WEEK 10 PREVIEW

7 GAMES � Cubs, St Louis, Colorado, San Francisco

Interleague play begins with all games held in American League parks with the exception of a four-game series between the Cubs and Cards at Wrigley, a three-game weekend set with Houston visiting Milwaukee, and the final game of a San Francisco/Colorado series on Monday. The series that will get the most attention nationally on �Spiderman� weekend will probably be the Dodgers visiting Boston, but keep on eye on the Cubs visiting Anaheim, which could very well be a World Series preview. All week 11 games will be in National League parks, and I will declare that weekend to promoting I,Robot � where a scientist gone mad produces hundreds of Barry Bonds robots, complete with metal armor.

BEST TWO-START BETS � Pedro Martinez, Dontrelle Willis, Matt Clement, Randy Johnson, Roger Clemens.

PICKS TO CLICK � Pedro should bounce back from his Vlad Guerrero nightmare with home starts v. the Rockies and Padres. Dontrelle draws the Indians and Tigers while Johnson gets the softer half of the AL East pitching in Baltimore and Toronto. Roger Clemens might be the best bet of all, he draws the anemic Mariners in Seattle before getting a Sunday afternoon start in Milwaukee. After seeing what Ben Sheets did on a Sunday with the Miller Park shadows it is downright scary to think what Clemens might do. Look for the Rocket to be 10-0 by next Sunday.


CDM FREE AGENT LIST (recommended purchases in bold)

C � Jason Kendall (1040) � Overpriced in real life as well as in this game.
1B � Sean Casey (1050) � Making a run at .400 and on pace for 120 runs, 120 RBI and 30 HR. Will get some action but expect him to cool some.
2B � Adam Kennedy (960) � Hitting .234 with no power or speed. Pass.
3B � Craig Counsell (710) � Nice player in real life, but not statistically.
SS � Edgar Renteria (1640) � OPS down from .874 and .661 with substantial drops across the board.
OF � Moises Alou (1090) � Urine-hands is a force again, hitting .320 and on pace for 40 HR/100 RBI.
OF � J.D Drew (670) � Look past the frequent injuries and look at the .588 slugging percentage and 1.011 OPS.
SP � Wade Miller (1020) � Nearly a K an inning but gets ripped at home.
SP � Kaz Ishii (780) � Don't even think he can save the LV 51's.
RP � Mariano Rivera (1600) � Better value than Eric Gagne thus far, 20 saves places him second only to Graves.





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