Who says that parity must be limited to the NFL, or the NHL where it seems that any woebegone franchise can suddenly find itself playing for the Stanley Cup???
The MLB schedule reached the quarter-pole this past weekend, which means it is time for that first serious look at the standings. Sure, there are a few constants. The Red Sox and Yankees already appear to battling hammer and tongs for AL East supremacy. Tampa Bay is as awful as ever, lame duck/nomad status has finally caught up with Montreal, and the Royals have proven to be one-year wonders.
But other than Anaheim and it�s 29-15 record, no one has set the world on fire. A mere 25-18 currently qualifies as the best record in the National League. One of the two teams with that mark is none other than Cincinnati, last seen dumping every potential high salary in sight last August. In fact the top five teams in the NL Central are within 2 � games, hell there�s even talk in Milwaukee on whether the Brewers can actually attend!!! Even last-place Pittsburgh sits 4 � out at a respectable 19-21.
The American League is crazier still; if the season ended last Sunday the following will occur.
Of course the field will thin out considerably in the next three months, July 31st will be bigger than ever with Carlos Beltran and possibly Randy Johnson being the biggest prizes. It is far more likely that those two will end up with the Yankees, Angels, Dodgers, and Mets rather than with the Reds or Brewers. In fact I will go out on a limb and say the Unit will not be in Milwaukee.
The most logical pick to win the whole ball of wax would be the Cubs, who are still tied for first without Sosa, Kerry Wood, and Mark Prior. Although I imagine most teams in baseball will settle for a starting rotation starting with Carlos Zambrano, Matt Clement, and Greg Maddux. If all three come back in one piece it will take a lot more than Steve Bartman to keep them from being the odds-on favorites.
Then there is San Diego, my pre-season pick to win the World Series. They�re sitting just percentage points out in the West, you could still get good odds with them. You could even get better action with the Brewers, just as long as no one else finds anything else to slip on during a rain delay. As the Marlins proved last year, you just need to get in show to have a chance.Someone once asked Indy 500 legend Johnny Rutherford what he did at the hotel the night before the big race. JR said that he would cut out the page from the sports section listing the entire 33-car starting grid, then circle his name and speed. JR would then look at those drivers ahead and behind them, then project the race in his mind figuring which drivers would charge through the field, and those who would play conservatively and hold back. What never failed though was that the second the green flag dropped, none of the scenarios Rutherford had thought of the previous night would come to pass � and all strategy was out the window.
With that in mind, I present my preview for the CDM Second Season Challenge which starts appropriately enough, on Memorial Day. As with the pennant races themselves, not many players have broken from the pack making player selection much more challenging than normal, especially with third base and relief pitchers. But even the tightened $28 million salary cap should not pose a problem, just look at the sub-500 players who are available.
That is 13 players for $5.7 million, or about the price of three Alfonso Soriano�s. That hypothetically give a team $22.3 million for your ten pitchers and the other five position players, an average of nearly $1.5 million per player.
With that said, I advise getting as much top-flight pitching as possible, and don't be afraid to utilize the big ticket items such as Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, and Curt Schilling. Third base and the outfield will be critical positions, and there is a lot more variety than normal as far as affordable closers are concerned.
CATCH A BARGAIN � I would go with Martinez and Estrada here, those two along with Javy Lopez (940) will be the main players at this position.
WHO'S ON FIRST??? � It�s hard to find premium players here this year. Even at home Todd Helton (1890) is nothing special (.338/3/14), Carlos Delgado (1480) is in a season-long funk, Richie Sexson (1450) is potentially facing season-ending shoulder surgery, and even Jason Giambi (1420) has landed on the DL for the first time in his career. If his finger is fine long-term I like Jim Thome at 1440, especially playing his home games at Baker Bowl (I meant Citizens Bank Park). The most played will be Overbay along with Pittsburgh�s Craig Wilson (.350/10/29) at 620 and David Ortiz (.273/10/36) at 800. Other possibilities include Frank Thomas (.289/8/26) at 810, and Euribel Durazo (.284/6/22) at 620. My outside the box pick is Mark Teixeira at 760 despite a horrible start.
WHAT'S ON SECOND � Michael Young will be the challenge�s biggest slam dunk at 1140. Some may opt for a Texas-two step and also play Alfonso Soriano, citing position scarcity. My problem with Soriano is that he has fallen off alarmingly across the board; never mind 40-40, Fons will be lucky to reach 20-20 at this pace, and has only scored 16 runs this year. The only good news is Fons is on pace for 687 AB�s which will help your team BA as long as that remains in the .300 range. Although Ginter and Utley are bargains in the 400 range, they will have to fight for playing time from Placido Polanco and Wes Helms, respectively when they return from injuries. Phillies manager Larry Bowa is very adamant in fact on Polanco not losing his starting job. I never though I�d mention Mark Loretta�s (820) name in regards with this game, but he�s hitting .313 and is on pace for 20 home runs along with 120+ runs. An X-factor will be how many jump on Marcus Giles when he comes off the DL after the All-Star Break.
THE THIRD WORLD � This will be the most important position to gauge, you can make a case for the case of Vinny Castilla (760), Scott Rolen (1460), Mike Lowell (1230), Adrian Beltre (950), Hank Blalock (850), Aramis Ramirez (1180), and Pedro Feliz (470). The Rockies are at home for Weeks 3,5,7,9 and 10 in this challenge, and Vinny Castilla is .386/18/7/28 in 21 home games, so he definitely gets a roster spot. Rolen leads the world in RBI along with a .344 average. But you have to be weary of anyone who refers to a home run as �a double gone awry�, I guess Jose Hernandez base hits would then be strikeouts gone awry. Blalock and Ramirez�s stats are very similar, Blalock gets the nod with the cheaper salary. Beware of Adrian Beltre who has cooled off considerably and does not have a multiple-hit game since May 9. Feliz should get some plays in Week One with the Giants playing a three-game set in Colorado.
AROD AND WHO ELSE??? � As was the case with Soriano going the other way, Alex Rodriguez�s stats have gone down in new surroundings. But still, a .300 average with 32 runs, 11 HR, 27 RBI and seven steals is not bad, especially considering the top two guys ahead of him not hitting a lick and the predictable slow start in the Bronx that nearly all Yankee free agents face. Position scarcity at short is even worse than normal, so Arod is worth it even at 2 million. It is a weak field after that trying to find a bargain, Brian Roberts has the stolen bases, but is soon slumping and may lose playing time to Jerry Hairston. Carlos Guillen (.315/34/5/28) has the best value numbers at 680 and becomes the first Tiger to merit Challenge consideration in recent memory.
MORA, MORA, MORA � Outfield is another position where there will be a lot of mixing and matching. Carlos Beltran (.354/31/11/31/10) is baseball�s best five category player and definitely worth the price this year, a move to the Bronx on July 31 would make both he and Arod even better. Melvin Mora (.386/42/9/32/5) has morphed from a utility player to a poor man's Beltran. Manny Ramirez is still highly recommended at 1420. Albert Pujols has been a slight disappointment average wise but is still another good possibility along with Vladimir Guerrero (.345/40/10/34). Carl Crawford and Scott Podsednik have been very popular in the full-season game for their steals. For the 2nd season I would replace one of the two for Chone Figgins. I would vote Podsednik off the island for he will be seeing a lot of Cubs pitching in July and August. Miguel Cabrera is a must at 570 and Adam Dunn, Jose Guillen, and J.D Drew will also be popular plays. The Rockies Jeromy Burnitz (.368/19/7/24 in his 20 home games) should also be in your mix.
CLEMEN(T)SY � By August, you may want the entire Cubs rotation. Carlos Zambrano (2.08/.92) and Matt Clement (six wins, 2.69/1.06) are both solid choices. Mark Prior is going to be tough call, he�s due back towards the end of next week. I would wait on Kerry Wood, my gut feeling (and only my gut feeling) is he will be rested until the All-Star break. Roger Clemens was lit up for the first time last week but I�ll still go with him, the Rocket has 70 K�s in 57.1 innings. Roy Oswalt has been scuffling a bit but shut down the Cubs this week. Last week�s dominance will make Randy Johnson and Jason Schmidt near-unanimous selections. The only other NL West pitcher that merits consideration is Jake �Houdini� Peavy, who only has a 2.01 ERA but a 1.36 ratio and skipped a start with a sore elbow (although the team probably cited avoiding using his arm in Colorado) Matt Morris� strikeouts are way, way down and I don�t recommend him. Pittsburgh�s Oliver Perez is one of the very few cheap bargains (560), has a sub-3 ERA and averages a strikeout per inning. As impressive as Ben Sheets has been (69 K�s in 66 IP, 2.86/.98) he is a shaky selection pitching in the very competitive NL Central along with his shaky back. Josh Beckett (3.75 ERA) and Dontrelle Willis (4.38) get most of the headlines, but Brad Penny (52 K�s in 60 IP, 2.10/1.03) has emerged as Florida�s best pitcher. The Mets Tom Glavine (6-2, 2.13/.92) will get Pitcher of the Month consideration, but strikes out less than five per nine innings at this stage of his career.
Among the American League starters, Curt Schilling remains the safest choice � you know exactly what you get, an ERA of three, a very low ratio and plenty of strikeouts and wins. Pedro Martinez will get some action since he starts twice next week, but beware of the fact that he has a 3.68 ERA and hasn�t tweaked his arm this year, yet. Roy Halladay (4.02/1.41) usually heats up with the weather, but pitching a third of his games v. the Yanks, Red Sox, and Orioles is reason enough to stay away. Estaban Loaiza had a strong outing this week, and improved on what had been a dismal strikeout ratio.. Johan Santana (5.60/1.62) is also one of the year�s biggest disappointments along with the A�s Barry Zito (5.56/1.55). Tim Hudson was lit up in his last start, and has only 32 K�s in 72.1 IP. Mark Mulder also has nice totals (2.98/1.04) but only 44 K�s. The Yankees Javier Vazquez (3.67/.99) gets consideration as the second-best AL starter after Schilling.
Jeremy Affeldt became the Royals new closer this week, joining Colorado�s Shawn Chacon as closers listed as starters. Both are way too shaky to consider for challenge purposes.
EVERYBODY LOVES A HAPPY ENDING � My Johnny Rutherford analogy comes into play here. Danny Graves stunk as a starter last year and was supposed to hold down the fort only until Ryan Wagner was ready. But then a funny thing happened, Wagner imploded in Kyle Farnsworth-like fashion while Graves is on pace for an incredible 80+-save season, saving 22 of the Reds 27 wins. Of course that pace cannot possibly continue, but at 1070 you shouldn�t be able to go too wrong with Cincinnati�s closer. The second-best closer thus far is Florida�s Armando Benitez, with 16 saves and an .36 ERA. Houston�s Octavio Dotel has been a fantasy disappointment, saving only seven games and blowing a couple of saves this month. However Dotel has fanned 30 in only 21 innings and should flourish with more opportunities as he continues to grow into the position. I remember when they were about to run Mariano Rivera out of town during his first few weeks as Yankees closer. Arthur Rhodes (800) has had a similar shaky transition in Oakland, but will also improve with more opportunities. Franscisco Cordero has been the Graves of the AL with 14 saves. Jason Isringhausen only has eight saves while showing some Matt Mantei-like symptoms. Jose Valverde (950) has been touched up in recent outings but I remain high on him due to the strikeouts. Milwaukee�s Dan Kolb (910) has only three strikeouts on the entire year but is 11-11 in save opps, can�t ask for anything more. Joe Nathan has 13 saves and a 1.25 ERA, the Twins closer will be perhaps the most popular play at 720. Even Jose Mesa (990) has returned from the dead for about the 98th time. I would rather trade places with Dessi Espana on the �Globe Of Death� rather than gambling on Matt Herges (5.70), even at 670. Same holds true for Joe Borowski (6.00/1.83), who should be replaced by LaTroy Hawkins (1.09/.73) as the Cubs closer any day now.
TOP CDM ADDS/DROPS (FA'S IN BOLD)
1. Jason Schmidt SP-SF (967) � Not only was an FA, but also turned out to be a two-start week.
2. Victor Martinez C-SF (832) � He and Piazza are now the second-most played at the position.
3. Scott Rolen 3B-STL (505) � I thought this would be Chavez�s career year, turns out it�s Rolen.
4. Mark Loretta 2B-SD (330) � Second best value at second.
5. Vinny Castilla 3B-COL (187) � And the Rocks only had three home games this week.
6. Carlos Zambrano SP-CHC (174) � Scheduled for two starts, outdueled by Roy Oswalt in the first.
7. Lyle Overbay 1B-MIL (161) � Murderous stretch for Brewers have begun.
8. Michael Young 2B-TX (142) � Has hit in 38 of 41 games.
9. Laynce Nix OF-TX (119) � Heating up again and on pace for 30 HR.
10. Melvin Mora (98) � Putting up some serious crooked numbers, and I don't mean the quints.
DROPS
1. Troy Glaus 3B-ANH (1243) � As expected.
2. Johan Santana SP-MN (365) � Opponents hitting a hefty .301
3. Marcus Giles 2B-ATL (314) � Another easy drop if you can�t afford to wait two months.
4. Ramon Castro C-FL (134) � I don�t even think he could get a hit off Santana right now.
5. Juan Gonzalez OF-KC (126) � You couldn�t afford to deal with the injuries in past years when he was mashing.
6. Roy Halladay SP-TOR (93) � Too many tough opponents to afford to be patient.
7. Corey Patterson OF-CHC (78) � So many other outfielders with so much better stats.
8(T). Richie Sexson 1B-AZ (73) � No choice but to go under the knife.
8(T). Matt Morris SP-STL (73) � Another pitcher in a vicious division.
10. Dontrelle Willis (67) � And this was his FA week.
WEEK 9 PREVIEW
7 GAMES � MN, BAL, TB, TOR, DET, KC, SF, AZ, ATL, FL, NYM PHI, PIT, STL
5 GAMES � CWS, TX
HOME: NYY, MN, ANH, OAK, SEA, ATL, CHC, AZ, SD
ROAD: TB, BOS (one game at home), TOR, CWS (double whammy), TX, NYM, HOU, MIL, SF (but three in COL)
BEST TWO-STARTS: Mike Mussina, Roy Halladay, Estaban, Loaiza, Bartolo Colon, Tim Hudson, Brad Penny, Ben Sheets, Roy Oswalt
CDM FREE AGENT LIST (recommended buys in bold)
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C � Johnny Estrada (340) � You can complete your backstop makeover this week.
1B � David Ortiz (800) � Already starting on 80 percent of the top teams.
2B � Alfonso Soriano (1930) � Don�t bother if you don�t already own him.
3B � Adrian Beltre (950) � The old Beltre is coming back, just 5 for his last 42, better options at the position.
SS � Julio Lugo (860) � Has driven in 29, so he gets consideration � but doesn�t have a lot of HR power.
OF � Reggie Sanders (1060) � On pace for 35 HR and near 100 RBI.
OF � Miguel Cabrera (570) � Already starts for 90 percent of the top rosters.
SP � Roy Halladay (1350) � Already have given you my opinion.
SP � Jon Lieber (840) � Has been what was hoped for from Jose Contreras, issuing only two free passes in 35.2 IP while compiling a 4-1 slate and a .90 ratio. Lack of strikeouts is what keeps him from being a serious option.
RP - Jose Mesa (990) - How many times have we tried to stick a fork in his career???