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2002 FANTASY BASEBALL WEEK 8 PREVIEW - WHAT TO WATCH FOR

Prepare accordingly for upcoming strike...

Nice to see that everything is going exactly according to Hoyle. In case you missed it, talk of a strike date was brought up by the Players Association this week, with the most likely drop-dead date coming in early August. It is a movie we have all seen before. Look for the strike to occur as scheduled in August, with the remainder of the season and playoffs being punted (again), in September. This is a labor war sure to last well into the scheduled beginning of the 2003 season. When a-hole Donald Fehr is running around training camps telling players to �expect the worst� and to set �some money aside�, that usually does not bode well. No wonder players (Jeff Nelson) are selling their surgically removed bone chips on E-Bay, that 23.5 K will come in handy when the next Lexus payment is due. Hell, why do these guys even need insurance when they can get that kind of coin for bone fragments.

But getting back to the realm of fantasy baseball, you can throw out the �it�s a marathon, not a sprint� line. The schedule may say that the season, is a quarter old, but in reality it is more than a third done. And as the storm clouds of a strike edge ever closer, the time to plan a move up the standings is now. When Kerry Wood says �we�re acting like it�s August and we�re 15 games out�, in a way his teammates are right, it is August, and the Cubs are dead.

In another huge fantasy development, it turns out that there is something to the drastic decrease of scoring in Coors Field. In case you�ve been under a rock for the last week, the Rockies admitted that they have been keeping game balls in a special room where the humidity is set at 40 percent, considerably more humid than the conditions often experienced in Denver. The result is baseballs that do not shrink or lose weight, and thus remain within recommended specifications. The pitchers also get better grip on their breaking pitches, and the ball doesn�t carry nearly as far. Please, give me my Titleist max-flies back. Not to mention the whole new Pandora's box this creates. Perhaps, there was something up when everyone was speculating on the ball being juiced in recent years.

But some feel that the humidors are not much of a factor at all, that the Coors Field decrease is just a product of the Rockies (and their opponents) not hitting much in the early season. I would say both yes and no to that theory. Going into this week, Todd Helton was hitting .436 at home, compared to just over .200 on the road. Jose Ortiz is at .208 at home, an even worse .128 away, Todd Hollandsworth is .303 at home v. .206 away. But then there is Larry Walker, over the past five seasons LW is .408 at home, and averaging 18 HR/58 RBI at home per year. This year Walker is .216 at home, but .352 on the road. And then there are the home runs, or lack of. During the previous six-game homestand two weeks ago, a grand total of zero home runs were hit, by the Rockies and their opponents combined. That cannot be a coincidence, and neither is a staggering 35% run scoring drop off, even with a limited amount of statistical data as far as this year is concerned. I would imagine that scoring will pick up at Coors as the weather heat up, but don�t expect the outrageous numbers that you have in the past.

The Rockies are not even at their customary position of leading the NL in hitting, which they have been a near shoo-in for the duration of their existence. The Rox are tied for second with a .262 team BA, behind Florida�s .264 average, an indication of scoring being down across the board, especially in the NL. The AL currently features more gaudy BA�s, with Boston leading the way with an incredible .303 team BA, the White Sox are second with a still impressive .283, while the Twins and Mariners are sitting at .280. The white-hot Angels are next with a .276 while the Yankees are at .273. On the other side of the ledger is Milwaukee (.240), Cubs (.238), Atlanta (.238), Tampa Bay (.235), Kansas City (.235), San Diego (.235), and Pittsburgh (.229). The Yankees are the majors top home run hitting team with 53, but with only 184 RBI. AL teams with more include Boston (198), Chicago (206), Seattle (208), and Anaheim (189). Top home run teams in the NL include Arizona (43), San Francisco (42), Atlanta (41), and Florida (41). Arizona (177) and Florida (175) are the leaders in runs batted in. Kansas City is the majors worst home run team with (17), and with no single player owning more than four bombs.

The majors top three team ERA�s are no surprise whatsoever, which are led by Los Angeles (3.15), San Francisco (3.16 in the majors worst hitting park), and Atlanta (3.22). The Red Sox are the top AL ERA team, and are tied for fourth (with NYM) overall with a 3.34. The junior circuits only other ERA below 4 belongs to the Yankees at 3.49. The majors worst ERA�s belong to Toronto (6.03), Kansas City (5.24), Detroit (5.01), Cleveland (4.92) and the White Sox (4.86). Oakland comes in at a surprisingly high 4.74.

IMPROMPTU MATCHUP

I decided to compare three outfielders with CDM salaries under 450 and bring them all in for an impromptu, celebrity boxing style matchup, which is as follows...

PLAYER
BA
R
HR
RBI
SB
JAY GIBBONS
.271
25
9
17
1
VERNON WELLS
.242
16
3
16
2
COREY PATTERSON
.310
16
1
12
9

Gibbons offers power, but doesn't have much protection in the lineup, never seems to have men on base, and seems to be a 0 for 25 slump ready to happen. Wells is a little weak in the BA category, and does not offer much in either bombs or steals. Patterson to me seems to be the best of the bunch due to the +.300 BA and the stolen bases. However, carrying any of the three at a given time should not be a Toby Hall-like disaster.

OTHER PLAYER NOTES

Mark Prior - Will make his final AAA start on Friday and will debut for the Cubs v. PIT next Wednesday. I strongly recommend picking him up this weekend.

Odalis Perez - Leads all MLB starters with a 1.75 ERA and an amazing .75 ratio. 41 strikeouts in 61 IP is not that astounding, but he does have a good mid-90's heater. Officially listed as turning 24 in June, I think 27 would be more like it.

Magglio Ordonez � In the middle of a explosive lineup, Magglio chimes in with a quiet, but effective .355/32/9/28/3.

Mike Cameron � One amazing, historic night notwithstanding, Cameron�s year has been otherwise spotty with a .250/31/9/22/5. The occasional steals and runs have been nice though.

Ruben Sierra � I wouldn�t go run out and add him to your collection, but Ruben does have a .339 BA, along with 4 HR and 22 RBI. Talk about coming around full circle, from being a young superstar (a.k.a the next Roberto Clemente), to ending up in the Independent leagues, and now this successful comeback.

Greg Vaughn � Your weekly Vaughnnie update. .110 with 44 K�s in 118 AB. And he rakes in $8 mil a year.

Hank Blalock � 20 for 100, with 33 K�s, has given Blalock a ticket to the minors for the time being.

Eric Hinske � All my preseason hype on Blalock, Sean Burroughs, et al., and this guy goes out and starts .305/23/5/19/4. Not spectacular, but nice in all five categories.

Roy Halladay � Isn�t he going in the Preakness on Saturday??? Seriously, on a staff with the horrible 6+ team ERA chronicled earlier, Roy has been the bright beacon with a 3.46 ERA, to go along with 48 K�s in 54.2 IP, also has allowed only 49 hits and 13 walks. All this for a low 490 CDM salary.

Kelvim Escobar � Has now managed to blow three of his eight save opportunites, and coughed up a couple of more runs to lose another game this week. Very shaky option on a bad team.

Andruw Jones � A typical season for Druw. 12 bombs and 26 RBI, but only a .265 BA.

Gary Sheffield � A recent 0 for 29 has dropped Sheff�s average to .221. How about this guy and Vaughn in the middle of your lineup.

Mike Lowell � Among the league leaders with a .359 BA with 30 RBI to boot.

Byung-Hyun Kim � Now up to 38 K�s in 22 IP. With a 0.82 ERA and a 0.82 ratio.

Sammy Sosa � All you need to know about the Cubs season. A .355 BA and a MLB leading 15 home runs, but only 23 RBI have come out of that.

Austin Kearns � Supposedly Griffey is about to come back, but I don�t think it will be at much expense of Kearns playing time, as Austin�s #�s through 65 AB�s read at .385/14/4/11. Even better than advertised.

Adam Dunn � Reds other phenom is now shaping up well as well, with 8 bombs and 28 RBI to go along with a .278 BA.

Darrell Ward � Beginning to lose playing time in the Houston outfield, the +.320 BA is fine, but only has 2 HR and 13 RBI in 130 AB�s.

Richie Sexson � Some call him a disappointment, but look at the totals thus far: .264/24/11/36. Multiply that by four and you have a pretty nice season.

Geoff Jenkins � 4 bombs and 11 RBI in 150 AB�s, along with a sub .240 BA. Now that is a disappointment.

Vicente Padilla � Took a no-hitter into the eighth inning this past week. 48 K�s in 56 IP, along with a 2.41 ERA, before getting roughed up a bit this week in Houston. That notwithstanding, he is no fluke.

Mike Williams � 14 straight save opps and a 0.60 ERA, like I say, never burn a high salary for a reliever.

Eddie Guardado - Tied with Williams for the MLB save lead with two more saves this week.

Dennis Tankersley � Another highly touted Padre prospect called up from AA in the past week. Went toe-to-toe with Javier Vazquez in a classic duel in his second MLB start. A definite gem to grab off the waiver wire ASAP.

Barry Bonds � Stat of the week. Barry has 46 walks v. 10 strikeouts. Unheard of.

The injury list for this week is headed by Manny Ramirez, hitting .372 with 9 bombs and 35 RBI, now out 4-6 weeks after an ill-advised head first slide of home plate in Seattle. Other members of the walking wounded include Magglio Ordonez (back pain), Brad Radke (DL � groin), Phil Nevin (soon to be DL�d � elbow). Returning from the shelf are Josh Beckett (won return in COL), David Ortiz (knee), Kris Benson (Tommy John, but was predictably bombed in first start back), and Mark Quinn (cracked rib).

THE WEEK AHEAD

Pay attention to the schedules this week. Atlanta, Montreal, Arizona, San Francisco, and Minnesota will only be playing five games. Teams playing seven times include CHC, PIT, CIN, STL, BOS, NYY, and KC. Colorado will be at home for the entire week again (SD, SF) while Houston will have a three-gamer v. the Cubs at home. Other teams at home this week include BOS, ANH, OAK, SEA, MON, and MIL. An impressive list of potential two-time starters include Javier Vazquez, Greg Maddux, Bartolo Colon, Vicente Padilla, Derek Lowe, Kazuhisa Ishii, Randy Johnson, and possibly Kevin Brown, Roy Oswalt, and Al Leiter

A monster free agent list for the week is as follows, recommended purchases are in bold, injured players in red...

C 15 FICK, ROBERT DET 600000
1B 106 DELGADO, CARLOS TOR 1510000
2B 219 ORTIZ, JOSE COL 750000

3B 307 KOSKIE, COREY MIN 1130000
SS 406 GARCIAPARRA, NOMAR BOS 1120000
OF 503 BONDS, BARRY SF 1830000
OF 628 PATTERSON, COREY CHC 440000
SP 828 BUEHRLE, MARK CWS 1010000
SP 976 PEREZ, ODALIS LA 420000
RP 1135 WILLIAMS, MIKE PIT 900000



Odalis along with Ishii, and Prior would make for some nice investments for this week in particular while opening up salary for other purposes.


LATROY F. HAWKINS AWARD

A little different spin on the award this week, for it goes to someone who crapped up in a non-save situation. Billy Koch (who does look like a f'n goat) entered a game in the ninth to get some work in and to hold the fort at a two-run deficit. Koch's inning went single, triple, sac fly, walk, infield single, out, three run homer, line out. The end result was five earned runs on four hits and a walk.




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