On occasion through the course of history we hear a ludicrous argument that just does not make sense, such as�
(1985)'Joe Dudek should get the Heisman Trophy over Bo Jackson' Note: Dudek was a Division 3 running back that somehow became the media darling during that season, and got pushed for the award. While Bo would go on to become one of the most dynamic athletes in the history of sports (in an all too brief career), Dudek�s NFL career would consist of a few strike-replacement games in 1987. Could you imagine the rage (and in this case rightfully so) from Jesse Jackson had Dudek won the Heisman over the shy, speech-impaired Bo???
Or more recently there is�
�(Annika Sorenstam) doesn�t belong with us, I hope she misses the cut� � Vijay Singh. Guess ol� Vijay needs to withdraw from that tourney now. Wouldn�t want him to get to the course only to make a u-turn after finding out he had the misfortune of having to play with someone given a sponsor�s exemption. That�s why golfers scratch and claw every year to get that elusive tour card. So they don�t have to depend on exemptions where they could get bumped by another player, Bozo the Clown, or god forbid � a female. Darn, I'm beginning to sound like a Martha Burke sympathizer.
And then we have this one�
'Rafael Palmeiro does not belong in the Hall of Fame�'
And this argument does not come from just a few people, but an amazingly majority of views that I have read since Raffy nailed his 500th home run this past Sunday. The arguments against Palmeiro, all of which I�m about to shoot down include�
So lets tackle these one-by-one. First off, it is a fact that Raffy has been overshadowed for much of his career, whether it is by other first basemen, or even in the context of his own team. Cal Ripken was the star in B-more, while the likes of Juan Gonzalez, and now Alex Rodriguez does the heavy lifting in Texas. His somewhat quiet demeanor and has not rocked the boat over the years, quietly going about his business. Even with I have been doing pre-season fantasy baseball rankings since the early 1990�s, and it is perhaps just this year that I actually rated him at his highest (fifth among 1st basemen). Whether it be a Frank Thomas, or a Mark McGwire or Carlos Delgado, or as is the case now (Giambi/Helton/Thome) � there always seemed to be others above of Palmeiro in the first base pecking order. Throw in the likes of Arod, Sosa, and Bonds at other positions, along with pitchers like Randy Johnson, Greg Maddux, and Pedro Martinez � and Rafael never seemed to merit more than late second-early third round consideration.
However, there was once a very good NL outfielder in the 1950�s � 60�s who seemed to fly under the radar in comparison to more attractive big-market names such as Willie Mays and Mickey Mantle, among others. However, as this player continued to hammer home runs into the early 1970�s and suddenly was in reach of Babe Ruth�s seemingly �unbreakable� record � did people finally truly did begin to appreciate Hank Aaron�s talents.
Which brings us to what exactly Palmeiro has accomplished, which includes�
And Raffy is not through by any means � he does turn 39 before the end of the season but appears to be in fantastic shape. You can look for 30 more homers this year, with the potential of 60-70 more by the end of the 2005 season. That should put Raffy near 600 HR along with over 3000 hits. Even if Sammy Sosa (listed as being 34 � but that�s another column) hold serve and stays ahead of Palmeiro, Raffy could still finish his career potentially as high as sixth on the all-time home run list, along with being in the top ten in RBI and top-25 in hits. Sounds like first ballot to me.
Which brings us to the point of 500 home runs today not being what it was 20 years ago. Again, Palmeiro is at 500 and counting, with a chance at 600. And there is the argument that Rafael�s totals are not as legitimate as Bonds, Sosa, or McGwire. Say what??? Fine, we know Sammy, Barry, and Mac have been known to knock the ball into the next county. In fact Palmeiro has not exactly been a regular in home run derbys. But still home runs count the same as long as they go over the fence, and Palmeiro is one to always take advantage of his dimensions. And before you get on him too much for playing in favorable ballparks, remember that Rafael played in one of the worst home-run hitting parks in the bigs back in his first stint with the Rangers.
And about Raffy�s home runs not being as �legitimate� as Reggie Jackson. Reggie�s career high in RBI was all of 118, and went over the century mark in that department all of seven times. In fact, among the 19 members of the 500 Club, Palmeiro already ranks 12th in RBI�s, 14th in runs, and 13th in slugging pct. It isn�t quite being like the guy that doesn�t belong.
Then there�s the argument about Palmeiro �being just a DH� in his recent years. In 1999 Rafael did DH in all but 30 of his 158 games. Since then he�s averaged 106 games at first base, and 27 of his 35 games this year have been in the field. All told, Palmeiro has played the field in 2,102 of 2,448 career games. And he hasn�t been a liability in the field neither, be voted on for three Gold Gloves, one of them ironically being in the 1999 season that saw him play only 30 games at first, but again one needs the reputation first.
Then there is the slippery-slope argument. Does Fred McGriff deserve to be in the Hall as well should he get to 500??? The theory here is that McGriff�s stats are strikingly similar to Palmeiro�s. Yes, but with one major difference. McGriff is a year older than Palmeiro and the end is in sight for the Crime Dog. Currently McGriff is sitting at 483 HR, 1324 runs, 1522 RBI, and a .286 career average. Current projections have McGriff getting his 500th sometime in September, and I do not see him being a full-time player after this season. Thus McGriff will not approach 3,000 hits (another benchmark that�s supposed to guarantee the hall) and will finish with just over 500 HR�s. Assuming Palmeiro finishes near 600, I think a line can be drawn between those two, if necessary.
Finally, there is the Eddie Murray measuring stick. Murray (like Palmeiro and McGriff) was a first basemen. Like Palmeiro he did some DH�ing, especially towards the end of his career. Like Palmeiro, Murray was incredibly consistent, but despite hitting 504 career HR�s never hit more than 33 in a season. Also factor in that Murray was stubborn and absolutely disdained the press � a trait that was supposed to hurt him come election time. Murray played in 3,026 career games (v. Palmeiro�s 2,448). Murray currently leads in runs (1,627 � 1,481) and RBI (1,917 � 1,600) while Palmeiro has the better BA (.292 - .287). You can project 1,600 runs and 1,800 RBI before it�s all over for Palmeiro. By the way, Murray was elected this year on the first ballot � so you still think Palmeiro�s borderline???The term �Zeta talk� refers to a language that �ire� speaks (and only he understands) on Diamond Challenge�s BBS board. Before leaving the Rafael Palmeiro issue entirely, it is interesting that he and Sammy Sosa have become the first Latin members of the 500 HR club. But here is where it gets weird. A lanky rail-thin Sosa hit his first MLB home run for Texas while Palmeiro (looking amazingly as he does now) clouted his first homer for (you guessed it) the Cubs.
In a move that came far quicker than I was anticipating, Jeff Torborg got the ax as Marlins manager over the weekend - which immediately begged the question on whether the team will steal as many bases under new manager Jack McKeon. The early answer is a difinitive yes, as Luis Castillo and Juan Pierre have stolen three bases in the four games since, along with one each from Pudge Rodriguez and Juan Encarncion. Speeking of speed, Dave Roberts hammy is barking again, causing the Maury Wills (born 1932 washingtondc 104sb62 managed seattle 81-82 quicker than an aflac quack) caught in a time-warp to miss two of three games this week. However, he's been a terror on the basepaths when available, stealing six bags in his last four games.
You can rest assured that senior MLB umpire Bruce Froemming will get plenty of free meals (as if he needs them) from Matt Clement and Brett Tomko owners for the foreseeable future. That�s unless you feel that Froemming shouldn�t had started the Sunday Cards-Cubs tilt at all on an unbelievably raw, rainy day at Wrigley. The ensuing four innings saw six of seven fly balls carry for home runs as Clement was tagged for 11 ER in 3 2/3 IP, while Tomko was on the hook for 9 ER. Froemming would call the game during the top of the fifth inning as the driving wind-swept rain just became too much. Washed away was an Albert Pujols grand slam, along with a 2 HR, 4 RBI day from Tino Martinez (his first multi-RBI day since 3/31). Fernando Vina lost three hits while Chicago�s Alex Gonzalez, Troy O�Leary and Moises Alou also lost home runs. What could not be washed away was a severe ankle injury (not broken but might as well be) suffered by utility outfielder/catcher Eli Marrero (slipped on the wet grass) that will cost him 8-12 weeks.
Remember in 1998 when people were debating which emerging pitcher would be better in the long run � Wood or Millwood??? Well both of them are turning out to be pretty darn good. Millwood is this week�s �hottest pitcher� after striking out 11 (while walking no one) over seven innings while scattering six hits and an earned run. Meanwhile Wood still issues his walks (26 in 52 IP) leading to a somewhat high ratio (1.27) but has also struck out 63 and has a low 2.77 ERA. Yes, we know � he threw 141 pitches last time out. As long as Dusty Baker doesn�t make too much a habit of that he should be fine. Mike Mussina was jinxed by this column (as was Javier Vazquez the week before), being roughed up in a home start v. ANH, allowing his third and fourth homers of the season, as Scott Spiezo suddenly decided to turn back the clock to last October in a game Anaheim went off at +230. Spezio would then smash his season-long slump for sure the following night by going 4-4. Moose saw his pitch count used up early as Angel batters took him to numerous 3-2 counts, a far cry from the quick, efficient work seen in previous Mussina starts.
And then there is Esteban Loaiza, whose stats are now a spitting image of Moose with an identical 7-1 record, along with a 2.05 ERA and .95 ratio. Loaiza has teased us with good starts before, as a Sunday Night opening night gem in Puerto Rico got him a lot of CDM play a few years back. One thing that is different this time along is Loaiza has stepped up big time with the K's, with 45 in 52.2 innings pitched. Still tread with extreme caution as his career ERA is still 4.77 and tends to wilt as the weather gets warmer.
Last year around this time, I talked about how crowded the Reds outfield was about to become with the return of Ken Griffey Jr. Well we�re there again, as Griffey comes off the DL earlier than anticipated. The current plan calls for Griffey to play about every other day or so. Jose Guillen (.327/18/7/21 in 97 AB�s) has been performing great as the third outfielder while Reggie Taylor got a start v. Milwaukee over the weekend (Adam Dunn did not have a good history v. opposing pitcher Ben Sheets) and went 4-4 with three steals (which are gold these days). Along with Guillen, look for the still struggling Dunn along with first baseman Sean Casey to potentially lose some at-bats. But don't get too comfortable with Griffey, one report has the possibility of the shoulder popping out again at any time - which would mean season-ending surgery.
I'll give myself credit for calling this shot. I said in the pre-season that Alfonso Soriano will carry as great a value as Arod or Vlad Guerrero. In April Soriano was worth $65, Arod $52. Speaking of Soriano, he unfortunately lost his father this week - but does not plan on missing any games. And while on that subject MLB has quietly enacted a 'bereavement list' which teams may utilize. In short, teams may reserve players on leave for personal/family matters for 3-10 days and bring a player up from the minors, just as if they were on the DL. The Giants Jason Schmidt (it was only for a weekend) was a recent example of the new transaction mode being enacted.
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PATTERSON'S POWER IS EMERGING |
To the surprise of no one, Coors Field came into this week as the highest scoring venue in the bigs in 2003, with an average of 13.5 runs scored per game. What does come as a surprise is Skydome coming in a close second at 13.3, followed by Arlington (11.9), and Fenway Park 11.1. The Reds new digs come in fifth at 11.1 while Minute Maid Park was surpringly only sixth at 10.9. By the way, did you heed my warning on Piazza at Coors??? Sure enough, 7-11, 3 HR, 6 RBI in a three-gamer this week.
In closer news, Billy Koch successfully converted on a save opp, so he has appeared to have regained that role while Brandon Lyon (listed as 460 starter in CDM) recorded a couple of more saves for Boston, so he�s approaching de-facto closer status if nothing else.
If looking for a three-week Yahtzee take a good look at Texas and Anaheim hitters. Week 8 will see both having home series v. BAL and TB, Week 9 sends both on the road v. the same opposition. In Week 10, both get the Expos at their second home in the Hiram Bithorn bandbox. Rangers will have a tough three-gamer in Atlanta that week, but the Angels get a series in Florida v. whatever arms the Marlins have left.
CHI, STL, SD, DET, CLE, and TOR are the lone teams with 7-game weeks. Teams at home include BOS, CWS, ANH, OAK, SEA, TX, MTL (last true home games for a month), CIN, HOU, MIL, PIT and AZ. Teams on the road include BAL, TB, TOR, DET, MIN, KC, FL, PHI, CHC, STL, SD, SF, and LA. Cubs and Cards visit Houston while SF has a four-game series in Coors that will spill into the beginning of Week 9. In 60 lifetime games in Denver Barry Bonds has hit .343 with 56 runs, 22 HR, and 54 RBI. Bonds has only hit .309 in Coors however after going 20-39 at Mile High in the Rox first two seasons. Top two-start pitchers include Kerry Wood, Curt Schilling, Kevin Brown, Greg Maddux, Javier Vazquez (both at home), Roy Oswalt, Matt Morris, Brett Myers, Tim Hudson (both at home), and Freddy Garcia (ditto).
Now for the CDM FA list � with commentary included.