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2004 KAC BASEBALL BLUE SHEET - WEEK 7


Fortunes turn quickly in SoCal...



Yep, It�s me again, the William Hung of the fantasy baseball world. I can only imagine how Simon would undress me if I were on (God forbid) a fantasy baseball reality show.

�You have to have a talent to progress it. I don't believe you are a fantasy baseball talent. You are completely wasting your money to Carol Matthews. Sorry.�

�My advice would be if you want to pursue a career writing about fantasy sports, don't.�

�You are pursuing a dream you will never, ever realize. You think you have knowledge, actually, you�re crap��

�If you were a lifeguard instead of analyzing baseball, a lot of people would be drowning��

�The object of this competition is not to be mean to the losers but to find a winner. Kids turn up unrehearsed, choose the wrong closers, and draft players who will be on the DL for two months, You can either say 'Good job,' and patronize them or tell them the truth, and sometimes the truth is perceived as mean.�

Great, wonder if Simon managed to avoid relegation in his fantasy Premiership league this year (Note: The worst three teams in English soccer get dropped down a level for the following season, if such a system were in place in baseball, the Brewers would be playing in the Pioneer League right now.). Meanwhile The Good, Bad, and the Ugly is making a run at the top-100 overall in the CDM challenge � OK, I submit, Frederick can do this column next week�


***



Wasn�t it last year about this time that I mused how all the SoCal teams got so bad??? Well, no more � the Angels just ripped off 10 wins in 11 games, the Dodgers appear to be the team to beat in the NL West but have the Padres nipping at their tales. Since I picked on the New York and Canadian teams in recent weeks I will now focus on the Dodgers and Angels�


ANGELS

Chone Figgins � Reason #1 Anaheim has been winning despite a rash of injuries, as Figgins has filled in for the injured Darin Erstad. Chone is hitting .316 with nine stolen bases in just 76 AB�s. His speed is considered to be right up there with Tampa Bay�s Carl Crawford, if he were to start an entire season he would be a cinch to steal at least 50�

Vladimir Guerrero � As suspected before the season, the 40-steal days for Vlad are over. In fact Vlad has not even attempted a steal this year. But kind of like how Barry Bonds and Sammy Sosa have evolved, Vlad has improved his power game. Guerrero is hitting .346 and is on pace to score 140 runs and drive in 130 while hitting 35 HR�s.

Jose Guillen � Double-crossed many owners this week after being carted off the field last Sunday with what appeared at the time to be a major leg injury. But returned at mid-week with a bang, taking Javier Vazquez out of Yankee Stadium with his first pitch. Guillen is quickly proving not to be a one-year wonder, going 25 for his last 51 � with 7 HR�s and and 21 RBI in that span. No one is hotter.

Troy Glaus � The huge early season talk is how eye surgery had apparently improved his selection at the plate, with Glaus hitting .296 with a MLB leading 11 HR and 28 RBI. But just as it was being reported that Glaus' sore shoulders (as in plural) were getting well enough to return to the field, Glaus tweaked his knee which earned him a trip back home to get checked out.

Casey Kotchman � This is the Halo�s headline prospect who made his MLB debut at first this week. The 13th overall pick straight out of high school in 2001, the left-handed hitting first basemen is likened most with Todd Helton and Will Clark, although he does not have the power of those two yet. Earned the promotion by hitting .368 with three HR and 18 RBI in 28 games at AAA.

Bartolo Colon � Starting pitching has been the Halo�s weak spot so far, Colon is holding up his end of the bargain but his #�s (4.09/1.30/32 K�s in 44 IP) are not eye-popping.

Francisco Rodriguez � When K-Rod finally becomes a closer, he has a chance to make his mark alongside the likes of Mariano Rivera and Eric Gagne. So far this year, K-Rod as punched out 30 in 18 IP while holding opponents to a .185 average. Troy Percival is still holding the fort fine, so don�t expect a changing of the guard this year.

Brendan Donnelly � Ace setup man (6�3� 240) was considered to be close to coming off the DL (complications from a broken nose) before coming down with stiffness in his elbow during a rehab stint. Donnelly had bone chips removed last September, so this is definitely a setback.


DODGERS

Paul LoDuca � Not a good option with homers, but leading the NL with a .386 average.

Alex Cora - Had one of the more memorable AB's in recent memory this week, fouling off 14 straight pitches before homering off the Cubs Matt Clement.

Milton Bradley - Not a great average (.252) but has 6 HR and 21 RBI. Early reports have MB being a 'model citizen' since arriving that way, but being a model citizen is always easy when the team is winning.

Dave Roberts � As usual not a great batting average, and as usual has landed on the DL with a hamstring problem. But in between has stolen 15 bases in just 23 games, and is still among the premiere SB specialists in the league.

Shawn Green � Hasn�t bounced back BA wise (.244) but has 24 runs, seven HR, and 18 RBI.

Adrian Beltre � The season everyone has been waiting for, as Beltre is a definitely early MVP candidate hitting .379 with 23 runs, 10 HR, and 28 RBI.

Odalis Perez � Uncharacteristically, starting pitching is not a strong suit in LA. Perez so far has been the best of the bunch with a 3.63/1.30 with 31 K�s in 44.2 IP.

Eric Gagne � But the bullpen is unbeatable, Gagne�s consecutive save streak is intact, and opponents are only hitting .148.


BONUS PROFILES

Terrell Sledge (OF-MTL) � You think Chris Berman isn't jumping on this nickname like the buffet at the Golden Corral??? RBI opportunities are not plentiful with the Expos. After a 1-32 start, Sledge rebounded with a 16-30 tear, with a pair of home runs and six RBI. Hit .324 last year in AAA, with 22 HR and 92 RBI. One interesting note, Sledge tried out for Team USA last fall and tested positive for steroids.

Gerald Laird (C-TX) � One of a bevy of rookie catchers making an impact in the AL, Laird was getting plenty of waiver wire attention while hitting well over .300 in one of baseball�s best offensive lineups. Although he hasn�t homered yet, recent AA/AAA seasons suggests Laird is capable of 10/15 HR�s. Has not recorded a stolen base as of yet, Laird has averaged about 10 steals a year in the minors. It is his defensive work that has really gotten Laird more notice, he has a strong accurate arm and cut down 39 percent of would-be base stealers in the PCL last year.


OTHER NOTES

Look for Kerry Wood�s tricep injury to have a huge impact. Currently, the Cubs are optimistic that he will only miss one start, but previous history indicates that K-Wood will be shut down longer than that. As far as the Cubs are concerned, Wood�s absence may be more impacting than that of Mark Prior. Current fifth-starter Sergio Mitre does have some upside as a prospect, now the team is looking at Glendon Rusch to fill in, who should have made my �10.5� list last week after recording a ERA of six and a half in 130 innings last year. Look for Carlos Zambrano (currently on 99 of the top 250 teams) to get a ton of pickups this week, Z has now gone 24 innings without an earned run and has recorded double-digit K�s in two of his last three starts. No one this side of Clemens is hotter. With the Royals apparently way out of contention this year, the Carlos Beltran trade rumors are already starting, with one team in the Bronx (who just happens to need a center fielder) being mentioned in particular. A couple of shaky outings in non-save situations has brought LaTroy Hawkins in play to potentially supplant Joe Borowski as the Cubs closer. Matt Herges may be losing his grip as the Giants closer, as Scott Eyre could see some action if a premium lefty comes up. The Phillies bluffed bringing Jim Thome (injured thumb) up as a pinch-hitter in an attempt to get Herges out of a game this week. Rafael Furcal�s thumb injury is worse than thought, as he continues to be available for pinch-hitting duty only. There have been familiar whispers in the Braves clubhouse on J.D Drew�s durability, although he did hit a pair of home runs in a return to St. Louis this week.

According to John Hunt, Armando Benitez ($33)is the most valuable pitcher of the season to this point. My two favorites right now, Roger Clemens and Carlos Zambrano, rank at $30 and $28 respectively, but remember Hunt's #'s are for 4 X 4 leagues, include strikeouts into the mix and the duo move to the top. Tuesday saw 5 extra inning games including 15 and 14 inning contests. Through Wednesday baseball is on pace for 283 extra-inning games, the previous record is 220. Surprisingly (at least to me), scoring and home runs are slightly up this year, but so are strikeouts.


Many hands were forced this past weekend, especially when it came to second base, shortstop, and relief pitching. The end result was one of the busiest weeks for adds/drops in recent memory, and I have a feeling that the coming week will be just as crazy.

ADDS
  1. Franciso Cordero RP-TX (871) � I still like Jose Velverde better, but Cordero was the listed free agent who came just slightly more expensive than JV (1010 v. 950). Cordero also gets save opps pitching for a better team than Valverde. Cordero is 12-12 in save opps and opponents are only hitting 184. The problem however is control, with 11 walks in 13.2 IP already this year and 38 in 82.2 IP last year. I can�t fault those who took the plunge considering the problems of Herges, Rhodes, etc. along with the fact that getting the free pick-ups out of the way is a prudent strategy. Still, I would bring my antacids.
  2. Brian Roberts SS-BAL (666) � Why does that # keep coming up??? I was bemoaning the fact that CDM made him eligible at SS instead of 2B this year, but with the lack of production from Alex Cinton, Bobby Crosby and Kaz Matsui, along with the injuries of Angel Berroa and Rafael Furcal � Roberts becomes just as valuable at short. Roberts ran ragged on the White Sox last week, with six steals in two game. With a .315 BA and 15 steals going into the week, Roberts is an upgrade over Kaz/Cintron. I might even buck my no-Oriole rule (Javy Lopez not included).
  3. Michael Young 2B-TX (459) � Alex Rodriguez is .280/22/7/16/2 on the year while Young is .371/32/7/28/3, making Young a clear winner in the three categories with the other two being a push. Obviously the curse of Arod is alive and well, that coupled with Marcus Giles getting dinged made Young a huge pick-up this week.
  4. Roger Clemens SP-HOU (414) � Any guess on who the NL starter for the All-Star game in Minute Maid Park may be??? I�m going to go out on a limb and say it may be this guy. I don�t see anyone going wrong with home starts v. Florida and the Mets this week.
  5. Lyle Overbay 1B-MIL (217) � .350+ BA and second in all of baseball in RBI, and he costs 400!!! No offense to Richie Sexson, but there�s no way he could approach O-Bay #�s even if healthy. Lyle�s tear should continue for two more weeks before the Brewers schedule turns wicked (two weeks of LA/SD, followed by ANH and HOU).
  6. Scott Podsednik OF-MIL (194) � Two Brewers out of the top six, and you thought I was kidding about the apocalypse.
  7. Joe Nathan RP-MN (138) � Still don�t think he�ll last the year, but you can�t argue closing for a first place team along with a 1.53 ERA and 23 K�s in 17.2 IP.
  8. Jose Velverde RP-AZ (123) � Don�t worry about the home run he gave up on Monday, as the roof was open and the BOB was playing like Coors South in windy conditions.
  9. Javier Vazquez SP-NYY (120) � Manages to make the list, and is not a FA or pitching twice this week.
  10. Miguel Cabrera OF-FL (105) � 5-6 with 2 HR/4 RBI over the weekend, his slump is over.



DROPS

  1. Jose Contreras SP-NYY (422) � Where are the people who said �what�s not to like� back in March. A 9+ ERA and a trip to the minors, that�s what�s not to like.
  2. Matt Mantei RP-AZ (294) � Very safe to drop.
  3. David Riske RP-CLE (284) � Another closer who�s bit the dust.
  4. Arthur Rhodes RP-OAK (263) � Surprises me that he nearly got dropped as much as Riske/Mantei. A bum non-throwing shoulder and 27 baserunners in 14 IP not helping the cause though.
  5. Johan Santana SP-MN (223) � Many jumped off this past week after a couple of bad starts, which I think will be a mistake. Johan still records plently of K's and threw seven shutout innings v. Seattle this week.
  6. Bobby Crosby SS-OAK (211) � 32 K's in his first 82 AB's but did get his fourth home run and has the batting average up to .200.
  7. Kazuo Matsui SS-NYM (206) � Appears to be rebounding, keep in mind he had seven .300+ season and hit 69 home runs the past two seasons in Japan.
  8. Austin Kearns OF-CIN (119) � Has become every bit as injury-riddled as the Griff.
  9. Morgan Ensberg 3B-HOU (116) � Did record multi-hit games in four of five recent outings.
  10. Aubrey Huff OF-TB (107) � After just 2 RBI in his last 13 games, Huff showed signs of breaking out of his season-long slump with a 5 RBI night.



WEEK 7 PREVIEW

7 GAMES - CWS, MN, COL, PHI

HOME - TB, ANH, OAK, TX, SEA, ATL, FL, MTL (San Juan), NYM, PHI, CHC, CIN, PIT

ROAD - BAL, NYY, CWS, DET, KC, HOU, MIL, STL, COL, AZ, SD, SF, LA

TWO STARTS - Javier Vazquez, C.C Sabathia, Johan Santana, Rich Harden, Dontrelle Willis, Matt Morris, Randy Johnson, Jason Schmidt


CDM FREE AGENT LIST

C � Mike Matheny (540) � Only if he can play against the Brewers (.340, 34 RBI in 188 AB�s) every day.
1B � Phil Nevin (950) � On pace for 20 HR, 75 RBI, you can do better than that.
2B � Orlando Hudson (550) � Has a shot at AL Player of the Week going 12 for his last 19, and is on pace for 25 HR/90 RBI.
3B � Mike Lowell (1230) � Starting just as hot as last year and on pace for .336/110/45/125 which is near Quadruple-Crown #�s.
SS � Carlos Guillen (680)
� The shortstop field could get even more crowded, as Guillen has 27 runs and 22 RBI thus far along with a .316 BA.
OF � Bobby Abreu (1630) � Overpriced himself in the CDM game years ago.
OF � Adam Dunn (690) � He�s really getting sick of the Bonds-like treatment (38 walks in 33 games), you know how tiring standing around on the basepaths all day can be???
SP � Esteban Loaiza (1020)
� Looks like the one-year wonder fears are coming true. Only 22 K�s in 47.2 IP (after 207 K�s last year) a large red flag.
SP � Jose Contreras (800) � To quote the Knicks Tim Thomas, stay away from the fugazy.
RP � Troy Percival (1420) � Opponents only hitting .158 thus far and has solid set-up men behind him. The price tag is the only thing I don�t like.





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