Atlanta Falcons



2003 KAC BASEBALL BLUE SHEET - WEEK 7


Nen surgery makes Worrell a must...



There always seems to be huge stories in the fantasy baseball world on an almost daily basis, but just the past 72 hours have brought us developments sure to have long-lasting ramifications. Here is a recap of the week thus far�

NEN OUT FOR SEASON � This could be seen about a mile away, as two previous arthroscopic procedures on the rotator cuff failed to do the trick. A more extensive procedure on a partially torn rotator cuff will be performed, and Nen will now be out until early-2004 at the very least. Which gets back to what I said back in the pre-season reliever preview � that someone not on the radar screen will come up huge. That�s when Tim Worrell comes in, as the career set-up man had not been considered a fantasy commodity (seven career saves coming into �03) at any point during his 11 year MLB career. Even with Nen questionable for Opening Day, the best care scenario had Worrell splitting save opps with Felix Rodriguez.

However Worrell saved three games that first week and has not looked back. With three straight saves this week along with a 1.83 ERA, he is cemented as a closer for one of the NL�s best teams, and has to now rank among the top ten closers available. Those who jumped on the waiver wire late in Spring Training or even during the first week of the season will now be rewarded handsomely, as Tim is a good bet to finish with at least 40-45 saves.

In the CDM challenge Worrell now becomes mandatory with his 740 salary, if playing the 2nd season game (starts June 2) you need him there too as he will fit snuggly with the reduced $28 million cap. Grab him ASAP.

LYON SOX CLOSER??? � It seems to happen with a least one emerging closer every season, and usually with someone involved with the Red Sox. That would be a pitcher being listed as a starter in CDM who becomes a primary closer. When utilizing this strategy in the Diamond Challenge, the converted starter replaces what would be the starting pitcher you would feel the least confident with � and no doubt a pitcher who would only be going once in a given week. When the current starter is effective in the closer role, you sacrifice some in wins and strikeouts, but come ahead in saves, ERA, and ratio. In theory you�re giving up two categories for three. Recent examples of converted starters factoring as closers include Tom Gordon (1998), Jason Isringhausen (late 1999), John Smoltz (late 2001), and Eric Gagne (2002). This becomes an issue again as for the first time this season the Red Sox appear set with Brandon Lyon handling the ninth-inning duties. This is especially significant with the 23-year old carrying a tidy salary of 460 in CDM.

Lyon has now gotten the past three save opportunities, converting on two of them. The blown save was in Kansas City where a couple of scratch hits along with a Nomar Garciaparra error figured prominently. The overall numbers (2.04 ERA/1.13 ratio/.187 opposing BA) however are very good. But Lyon does not come without risk, as he had a very shaky 6.53 ERA/1.56 ratio in 62 innings with Toronto last year. Lyon is also not big in the strikeout category (78 K�s in 142.2 IP) Not to mention that he is not nearly as cemented in his role as what Tim Worrell is. However, if you�re down in the saves category, and are doing well with strikeouts and wins � then the risk could very well be worth the potential reward.

BECKETT HURT � The severity of this had been downplayed in recent weeks (apparently by Beckett himself), but the Marlins possible have a second young pitcher headed for Tommy John surgery. Josh Beckett came out of a game following a 28-pitch inning v. San Francisco, and was immediately on his way to Birmingham for an appointment with Dr. James Andrews. This diagnosis wound up being a sprained elbow, but Beckett will be on the DL nonetheles I am not expecting good news to come out of this long-term, and I suspect Jeff Torberg will never allow a starter to go over five innings again. Florida is also without Mark Redmond (2.72 ERA, 1.16 ratio, 38 K�s in 39.2 IP) due to a broken thumb.

MUSSINA ON A ROLL � Last week I proclaimed Montreal�s Javier Vazquez as the best pitcher currently in baseball, after I gave the proclamation to Mark Prior a few weeks earlier. Well, bump JV and Prior down to #2/3, because Mike Mussina has gone absolutely mental. His latest effort in Seattle saw him K 12 in 8 IP, along with scattering five hits along with zero walks, lowering his season ERA to 1.70 and a .85 ratio. You can tell the man has an economics degree - of 114 pitches thrown, only 31 were balls. Moose has K�d at least eight in all seven of his starts this year, all wins - and is the first AL pitcher to start 7-0 since Ben McDonald in 1994.

My only warning against Mussina at this point is he�s susceptible to the occasional outing where he gets over the fat part of the plate too often, and winds up allowing 7-8 ER in a couple of innings. Not to mention a couple of tough starts v. Boston loom on the horizon. However there seems to be little slowing down Moose at this point, and the latest I�d go without him in CDM would be until he gets a two-start week (provided the rotation holds up) in early June at Cincinnati and at the Cubs, two games that will be played sans the designated hitter.


OTHER NOTES

Other changes among closers (which you might consider if desperate for a waiver-wire pick up) include Damaso Marte surplanting Billy Koch with the White Sox (at least for now) along with someone named Kiko Calero getting some opportunities with St. Louis. This weeks candidate to shatter his previous career high in steals goes to Tampa Bay's Marlon Anderson, who has been getting the green light from manager Lou Pinella and has responded by converting on all seven of his attempts. Marlon's previous career high is 13 back in his rookie year of 1999 (129 games). You might want to keep an eye out on Johan Santana's start for Minnesota (v. Pedro Martinez) this Friday night. Johan is back in the rotation after 29 strikeouts along with a sub-two ERA in 22 2/3 IP.

Remember Carlos Delgado�s glory days of 1999-2000, where he was cranking out 40+ home runs along with 130+ RBI??? Well, those days are back, as Carlos is pushing some serious Triple Crown numbers with a .365 BA, along with an MLB leading 12 HR and 37 RBI, putting him on pace for what would be a sick 59 HR/174 RBI campaign. Delgado�s current slugging percentage of .748 tops his career high of .664 in 2000.

Although actually considered a minor disappointment in some circles (belted only his third home run of the season this week), the RBI production of Hideki Matsui is actually quite good with 26 so far, putting him on pace for a 125+ RBI season. I just don�t like the fact that Godzilla adjusted his game by using a lighter bat to get around on the better quality of pitching faced in the majors. Ichiro has set the bar so high that a Paul O�Neill-like contributor is actually considered a letdown.

Vladimir Guerrero was very quiet before finally breaking out to the tune of six RBI in two games this week. Remember when I said don�t worry too much about Adam Dunn�s second half slump last year??? Well, now it�s time to worry as Dunn is hitting .228, along with 10 HR/21 RBI. Rob Deer types usually don�t bode well in the CDM game. Furthermore, Dunn only has one stolen base after 19 last season. Finally, we were again reminded why Freddy Garcia owners can't bear to look, especially when facing an elite team. Garcia was shelled for 9 ER by the Yankees this week, Freddie is usually good for a couple of those ERA/Ratio destroying games per season. And how high-powered are the offenses of Toronto and Texas??? The over-under on the final game of their three-game series was set at 12, and over won after an 8-6 Blue Jay win.

And this is the first time in recent memory that neither Randy Johnson (on the shelf) or Curt Schilling (inconsistent) have been musts for the CDM game. Pedro Martinez tends to get nicked up as well and can probably even be survivable without as long as you have the likes of Zito/Prior/Moose/Vazquez. This may become one of those seasons where the $30 million cap may not be much of a factor�

And then there is an remarkable fact I became aware of this week. Roger Clemens (297), Greg Maddux (276), Tom Glavine (246), and possibly Randy Johnson (225) � are all active pitchers born in the 1960�s with a chance to win 300 games. Pitchers born in the 1940�s who have won 300 include Steve Carlton (329), Nolan Ryan (324), Don Sutton (324), Phil Niekro (318), Gaylord Perry (314), and Tom Seaver (311).

However, pitchers born in the 1950�s fall into the black hole with Bert Blyleven, (whom most think simply as a good pitcher that lasted a long time � but not a HOF�er) being the leader with 288. Following Blyleven are Jack Morris (again � not a Hall of Famer) at 254, Frank Tanana (240), and Bob Welch (211). Just gives you an idea of the fantastic quality of pitching at the top in recent years who have managed to thrive in a very hitter-friendly era.


Here are the top adds/drops for the CDM game�

ADDS

  1. Dave Roberts OF/LA (476) � As expected considering he was on the FA list.
  2. Euribiel Durazo 1B/OAK (302) � Ditto.
  3. Jason Schmidt SP/SF (238) � Two start week after last weeks superb outing.
  4. Brett Myers SP/PHI (234) � FA choice attractive with sub-500 salary.
  5. Juan Gonzalez OF/TX (227) � One of those years he�s completely healthy and producing like crazy. 40+ HR/120+ RBI a lock if he keeps it up.
  6. Mike Mussina SP/NYY (208) � Do you buy him this week with two starts, or wait until the following week when he makes the FA list???
  7. Carl Everett OF/TX (195) � Like Gonzalez, can be a monster when healthy. .318/11/29 thus far with an 850 salary.
  8. Gary Sheffield OF/ATL (175) � Yet another veteran OF healthy again, .340/8/21 thus far.
  9. Manny Ramirez OF/BOS (154) � On 73 of the top 100 teams this week.
  10. Jason Kendall C/PIT (127) � Catchers hard to come by this year.
  11. Carlos Delgado 1B/TOR (127) � Still only on 20 of the top 250 teams.


DROPS

  1. Randy Johnson SP/AZ (413) � Out 3-6 weeks, and plenty of other reliable pitching available at cheaper prices.
  2. A.J Burnett SP/FLA (227) � Done for year.
  3. Roy Halladay SP/TOR (203) � Pedro, Moose, Zito and Mulder only recommended AL pitchers at this point.
  4. Pat Burrell OF/PHI (157) � One of several outfielders who have fell sharply from last year.
  5. Frank Thomas 1B/CWS (146) � Many attractive 1B options this year, Hurt�s not one of them.
  6. Wade Miller SP/HOU (138) � Wrong week to do that, Wade came up huge in Part 1 of a two-stepper.
  7. Aramis Ramirez 3B/PIT (137) � Two huge games in Houston, but still don�t see him coming around long-term.
  8. Karim Garcia OF/CLE (133) � Safe drop here.
  9. Ken Griffey Jr. OF/CIN (131) � Might consider riding out his injury if you�ve waited this long.
  10. Danys Baez RP/CLE (109) � Not even a debate between him and Worrell.


WEEK 7 PREVIEW

This is the first week that the Rockies will be spending the week at home, with a full state of seven games (NYM-3, MTL-4). Colorado will also be at home for Weeks 10 and 12. So how much of an advantage is it in the thin air??? Here are rarefied facts. Currently Jay Payton hits .368 at home, .294 on the road. Other splits include Larry Walker (.278/.255), Todd Helton (.357/.292), and Jose Hernandez (.333/.222). At the moment Preston Wilson is actually an anomaly, hitting .314 on the road v. .306 at home. But add all those totals together and you have the usual 60-70 point spread v. home and road. Larry Walker is a .388 hitter at Coors lifetime while Todd Helton sits at .375 for his career. Among visiting players in Week 7, Vladamir Guerrero (.375, 20 runs, 8 HR, 18 RBI in 17 games) and Jose Vidro (.365/17/6/15 in 15 games) operate at just under a run/RBI per game clip. More impressive are Mike Piazza�s stats there, hitting .370, with 41 runs, 16 HR and an amazing 61 RBI in just 50 career games in the city of Denver.

The second best schedule of the week belongs to Minnesota, with seven home games (KC-4, CWS-3) as well. As the schedule stands now, MN will be avoiding the top of the White Sox rotation. Boston and Milwaukee will be opening up two-week long homestands. Other teams at home include CLE, DET, NYY, BOS, STL, LA, SD, and SF. Anaheim and Texas have the misfortune of visiting New York and Boston, while ATL AND FL visit the west coast (SD, LA). Besides MN and COL, KC, HOU, PIT, CHC, MIL, NYM, SD, ATL, MTL, and SF will have seven-game weeks, everyone else plays six.

Other than Mike Mussina (with two attractive home starts) this is not a top-heavy week for two-time starters, with Mark Prior (Cubs have not been skipping the fifth starter) and Damian Moss being the only other headliners.

Jay Payton is on this weeks FA list, but I recommend Preston Wilson first since he provides more power along with those elusive stolen bases. And who cares about the price, John Smoltz and his 15 saves (Braves have now won in his last 67 appearances) are very attractive if needing a low % guy to catch up in saves. The entire CDM Free Agent list is as follows...


SportingNews.com Ultimate Fantasy Source Baseball: The Ultimate fantasy baseball information and statistics management service. There has never been a more in-depth fantasy baseball research site online.
C 22 MATHENY, MIKE STL 500000
1B 125 SIMON, RANDALL PIT 770000
2B 203 SORIANO, ALFONSO NYY 1460000
3B 335 BLALOCK, HANK TEX 500000
SS 404 GARCIAPARRA, NOMAR BOS 1330000
OF 513 SUZUKI, ICHIRO SEA 1480000
OF 564 PAYTON, JAY COL 810000
SP 831 BROWN, KEVIN LA 990000
SP 986 RODRIGUEZ, RICARDO CLE 410000
RP 1103 SMOLTZ, JOHN ATL 1600000





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