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2004 KAC BASEBALL BLUE SHEET - WEEK 5


POWER OUTAGE CASCADES THROUGH QUEENS AND THE BRONX



Last week I picked on Canada, and like last summmer blackouts that start in Canada usually head south. The New York Mets reside near the bottom in most offensive statistical categories: 28th in runs, 28th in batting average, 27th in slugging percentage, and 22nd in home runs. That is not much lower than most expected the Mets to be this year, and about where they finished last year, when the Mets ranked 28th, 27th, 29th, and 29th in those categories.

But the Mets have company at the bottom, and they don�t even have to look far. This American League team ranks 21st in runs, 29th in BA (only ahead of the pathetic Expos), 28th in slugging percentage, and 20th in home runs. Better yet, their leadoff hitter is currently in the throes of a 0 for 32 skid. Derek Jeter and the mighty Yankees COME ON DOWN!!!!!

New York may be the city that never sleeps but their bats are in the dark. Here is a capsule look at the power failures in the lineups of both teams�


YANKEES

Derek Jeter � It�s not often that a big league player earns a caption on the DRUDGE REPORT but a 1-36 skid will get your mug alongside an amusing John Kerry headline every time. Jeter has never hit lower than .291 in his nine-year career. Going into Thursday, Jeter�s slugging percentage was at .205.

Hideki Matsui � Is being shuffled between second and 6th/7th in the order. At least last year Matsui was driving in runs, this year he only has 10 in 21 games. The .268 batting average is actually one of the best on the team.

Alex Rodriguez � The good news is that a recent 11-24 streak has brought Arod�s average over .250. However you expect six ribbies in a week, not an ENTIRE MONTH. Rodriguez has driven in at least 111 runs in seven of his eight previous seasons. Obviously, Jeter will have to get going before Arod gets better RBI opportunities.

Jason Giambi � The trend of Giambi having a lower batting average has continued thus far, although a big game this week has brought Jason�s average up to .246 with 4 HR and 10 RBI, which are below average power #�s.

Gary Sheffield � Hitting .284 but with only one home run, amidst speculation that the bad thumb is handicapping him. I would not go out of my way to trade for Sheff as the red flags are screaming.

Jorge Posada � The MVP of the offense so far, hitting .302 with eight HR and 20 RBI and a .746 slugging percentage. Right now Posada has the best stats of any catcher in baseball.

Bernie Williams � Remember he got off to a late start to begin with due to an appendectomy in Spring Training. But Bernie�s start has been especially slow, going 11-64 with only 3 RBI. Williams has slowed down in recent years and is now 35, so don�t count on him being the Bernie of five years ago.

Enrique Wilson � The second baseman opened the season 8-48 and has now been benched in favor of Miguel Cairo. Look for George to make a more to get a more established second baseman at some point before the trade deadline. Maybe he can get Soriano back for a bunch of prospects and some athletic tape.

I must mention that while this is going on it is the Red Sox going lights out, with Pedro Martinez, Derek Lowe, and Byung-Hyun Kim (just off the DL) all participating in consecutive shutouts.


METS

Kaz Matsui � Hit a home run to lead off a game for the second time this season this week. Other than that Kaz has been nothing special at the dish, hitting .263. Has been especially disappointing on the basepaths, getting his first steal just this week.

Mike Cameron � Nothing much different than we�ve seen in the past. About a .250 average, some power, and a ton of strikeouts. Cameron does lead the team in steals with six.

Mike Piazza � Tied Carlton Fisk this week for the most home runs ever hit by a catcher. The bad news was that it took three weeks from his last home run. Hitting .300, but with only four HR in 20 games.

Cliff Floyd � Took all of one week to land on the DL this year, you know the drill with this piece of china.

Jason Phillips � A .298 hitter last year, Phillips starts this year an anemic 8-61.

Ty Wigginton � Another who got off to a slow start (9-48) before landing on the DL with an ulcer of all things.

Shane Spencer � Career utility man hitting .345 (19-55), has 15-20 HR potential if he plays every day, making him good at least for a waiver wire pick-up.


ARIZONA RISING AND FALLING

A pair of devastating injuries in the past week for the Diamondbacks, including Roberto Alomar along with ironman Richie Sexson, just two days after smacking a Roy Hobbs-like 503-foot home run off his own image on the center field video board. For Sexson, that ranks right up there with a 450-foot plus shot last year that was not a home run because it dented (the mark still exists) the center-field flagpole in Houston and bounced all the way back towards second base.

However, there are some other D-Backs that command immediate attention on the waiver wire�

Chad Tracy � With Shea Hillenbrand hitting below the Mendoza-line, Tracy has gotten some starts and has gone 12-28 with a homer and seven RBI, after hitting .400 with two HR and 11 RBI in 11 AAA games. Tracy has also been a wizard with the glove. Won the Texas league batting title with a .344 average in 2002 and led the Pacific Coast League in hits last year while hitting .324. Tracy�s batting style is often compared to that of Wade Boggs. Did steal a base in his first D-Back game but did not steal a single base in the PCL in 2003. Hillenbrand wasn�t happy with Tracy�s call-up (when Roberto Alomar went on the DL) but now Richie Sexson is on the shelf as well, which means Tracy stays at third while Shea moves over to first. Tracy is a recommended waiver-wire pick-up for the next few weeks.

Matt Kata � Might as well mention Kata as well, who is hitting .333 (20-60) replacing Alomar. Not much of a power or speed contribution, but a nice fill-in since Alomar is gone for a couple of months.

Danny Bautista � Couldn�t believe I got this guy off waivers, 20-game hit streak, .383 average, 4 HR, 15 RBI, .642 slugging percentage, what�s not to like??? Sure he�ll be 32 next month and has never had more than 350 AB�s in the majors but I�ll ask questions later. Diamond Challenge salary goes at a tidy 480.


OTHER NOTES

Another good prospect to keep an eye on is Texas� Adrian Gonzalez, who filled in with Mark Teixeira out and went 8-29 with a homer and four RBI. Gonzalez is a solid gap-hitter likened to a young Rafael Palmeiro. Cincinnati�s Barry Larkin became the 10th member of baseball�s over-40 club this week. Before the season is out Palmeiro and Barry Bonds will also hit the big 4-0, along with a certain internet baseball writer. There are a dozen players who have stayed with the same clubs since before the 1994 players strike. Some names may surprise you, they are Larkin (19th year), Edgar Martinez (18th), John Smoltz (17th), Craig Biggio (17th), Frank Thomas (15th), Jeff Bagwell (14th), Bernie Williams (14th), Tim Salmon (13th), Sammy Sosa (13th) Carlos Delgado (12th), Barry Bonds (12th) and Mike Lieberthal (11th).

Angel reliever Kevin Gregg has only allowed one ER in 15.1 IP while recording a strikeout per inning, and is making a push to join the starting rotation. Cleveland�s Jake Westbrook pitched a perfect game, sort of. Westbrook retired the final batter of one outing, then came in early after the starter couldn�t get through the first, and retired all 21 Detroit batters. That earned Jake a start against the Tigers where he retired the first five en route to allowing only two hits in a complete game victory. That was 27 consecutive outs (over three appearances), along with allowing only two hits over 16 innings. Don�t go overboard trying to get the journeyman however, as Westbrook has a career 4.95 ERA and is not a strikeout pitcher. This is more a case of a pitcher owning a particular team (the Tigers in this case). Pittsburgh's Oliver Perez was another nice waiver pick-up in the past week, but I got some bad information and did not start him when he faced the Reds last Sunday. Of course that gave OP full license to pitch a complete game shutout. If I gave you an optimistic report on Rob Nen last week forget that you ever heard it. Nen has been transferred to the 60-day DL and is reporting more pain in his shoulder. Stick a fork in his career, as Matt Herges becomes a better long-term (but not guaranteed) play.


HOW BOUT DEM BREWERS!!!

First catcher Chad Moeller becomes the first Milwaukee player ever to hit for the cycle at home, but the timing couldn't be worse. A ten-year promotion with Harley-Davidson was not renewed for 2004, offering a motorcycle to any Brewer who recorded a cycle or pitched a no-hitter. Think the tightwads over at Miller Park could get Chad a Hog anyways, NAH!!!!! Game also featured a great collision between Reds pitcher Phil Norton and Sean Casey, I played it over about 20 times on MLB.com for extra effect. Too bad the NFL draft is over, I think either could have been tabbed as an outside linebacker. Brewers end up winning the game on a Bill Hall home run, after a Brandon Larson error (even if he hits, his defense is left to be desired). Next night is even better, as Milwaukee storms back from a 9-0 deficit to win 10-9 on a Hall homicide squeeze in the tenth. The comeback was the largest since Cleveland came back from 12-0 to beat Seattle in a Sunday Night game in 2001. Don�t get too used to it Milwaukee, Ben Sheets is being mentioned in trade talks with the Yankees and Geoff Jenkins may not be far behind. Also one top prospect broke his foot in the minors this week while a one-year drug suspension was handed down to another farmhand (you reportedly need to fail four tests to get a suspension of that length per the Josh Hamilton case).


CDM ADDS/DROPS (listed FA�s in bold)

ADDS

1. Jake Peavy SP-SD (549) � But got pulled from his first start after giving up two runs to the Expos in the sixth, inexcusable.
2. Adam Dunn OF-CIN (204)
� But seems to be reverting back to Dave Kingman mode after a hot start, although he walks more than anyone this side of Barry Bonds.
3. Jason Varitek C-BOS (198) � A couple of huge home runs after a 0-17 slide.
4. Scott Podsednik OF-MIL (188)
� The West Texas Roadrunner.
5. Charles Johnson C-COL (178) � Becoming the offensive version of Shawn Chacon, hitting better on the road (.381) than at Coors (.296)
6. Jermaine Dye OF-OAK (167) � Cooling off, but not much � 20 RBI for the month.
7. Arthur Rhodes RP-OAK (152) � One of your four essential closers.
8. Armando Benitez RP-FL (133) � Up to ten saves with a .66 ERA, like they say in New York, he sucks.
T9. Sammy Sosa OF-CHC (132) � You won�t find this on Drudge, President Bush was behind his trade to the Cubs.
T9. Mark Mulder SP-OAK (132) � Scully just missed the cut.



DROPS

1. Jose Contreras SP-NYY (446) � And I dropped him for Peavy, which of course gave JC full license to win his first game.
2. Morgan Ensberg 3B-HOU (333) � Mike Lowell, Troy Glaus, Vinny Castilla, Aramis Ramirez � Morgan Ensberg. Think I�ve made my point.
3. Jason Phillips C-NYM (154) � Part of the New York power blackout.
4. Angel Berroa SS-KC (147) � Migrane, scheduled for a rehab assignment this weekend.
5. Preston Wilson OF-COL (146) � I thought Rockie outfielders could hit 3 HR�s and 8 RBI in a week at home even if on the DL.
6. Ramon Castro C-FL (135) � After an all-day pre-trial hearing in Pittsburgh, Castro arrives at Pro Player stadium 13 minutes before the first pitch and promptly hits two home runs and drives in six. Oh wait, that�s another player in another sport.
7. Austin Kearns OF-CIN (133) � And that was before he broke his arm!!!!!
8. Vernon Wells OF-TOR (117) � Owners dropping Wells, practically unheard of the past two years.
T9. Matt LeCroy C-MN (115) � No return date in sight.
T9. Joe Crede 3B-CWS (115) � Here we go again, Mike Lowell, Troy Glaus, Vinny Castilla. Hell, even Adrian Beltre is raking this year!!!


WEEK 5 PREVIEW

7 GAMES � BOS, CLE, TB, ANH, CHC, STL, CIN, HOU

HOME: BAL, TOR, SEA, ANH, OAK, TX, CIN, ATL, FL, MTL, NYM, CHC

ROAD: NYY, TB, CWS, DET, KC, MN, COL, SD, SF, LA, MIL, STL

With a few exceptions, NL games are in the east while the AL games are out west, there is a nice two week stretch for Texas, who play Tampa Bay and Detroit over their next 12 games.

BEST TWO-START BETS: Curt Schilling, Roy Oswalt, Esteban Loaiza, Mark Mulder, Josh Beckett

CDM FREE-AGENT LIST (recommended purchases in bold):
C � Mike Lieberthal (690) � One of the long-timers.
1B � Frank Thomas (810) � Another of the long-timers.
2B � Ray Durham (1120) � No longer steals.
3B � Vinny Castilla (760) � Just like old times, drives in runs in 13 of 15 games. Unfortunately the Rockies are on the road this week. CDM really knows what it�s doing.
SS � Rafael Furcal (1150) � Unfortunately, Atlanta is in Colorado this week. CDM really knows what it�s doing.
OF � Aubrey Huff (1250)
� Aubrey becomes Audrey, as D-Ray batters are slumping right along with the Yankees. Maybe there is something to that Japan jet-lag theory.
OF � Ken Griffey Jr. (700) � Watching him limp around in center field is truly sad.
SP � Matt Morris (1060) � His two-start week was last week. CDM really knows what it�s doing.
SP � Carlos Zambrano (810) � His two-start week was last week. CDM really knows what it�s doing.
RP � Jorge Julio (1250)
� Haven�t touched him with a ten-foot pole after going the last six weeks of 2002 without a save opp (and he was the closer!!!)





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