Atlanta Falcons



2003 KAC BASEBALL BLUE SHEET - WEEK 5


Marlins running wild...



Many of you out there (at least those of you actually employed, lol) have been shown a video about the staff at a downtown Seattle fish market, and how they create fun during their work-day by throwing fish around. At one point in the video, one of the employees talks a lovely looking lady into attempting to catch one of their throws, and gives her some Saran Wrap to catch it. The throw is perfect, but like a Brewers middle-infielder, she allows the catch of the day to go right through the wrapping paper.

Which leads us to an anomaly occurring clear cross the country from the Pacific Northwest, where the Florida Marlins has somehow discarded the memo (along with LA�s Dave Roberts that MLB players are simply not allowed to steal these days. Through this Wednesday, the Flyin� Fish have swiped an astounding 41 bases, putting them on pace to steal 300 bases on the season. The next closest pursuers, the Angels and Giants, have only stolen 15. By contrast, the once aggressive Toronto Blue Jays have stolen all of one base (Eric Hinske). Perhaps that SARS virus is worse than we all thought. In fact, the Marlins have stolen as many bases as the bottom nine teams (Cubs, Mets, Cards, White Sox, Indians, A�s, Phillies, Tigers, and Jays) in that department.

Among the Marlins team leaders in SB�s are Juan Pierre (8), and Luis Castillo (6). That comes to the surprise of no one. Both players strengths have always lied in their speed. It is some of the others that have taken the fantasy world by surprise. Juan Encarncion is one of two players tied with Pierre with eight steals. Ency has flashed the speed game before, evidenced by 33 with Detroit back in 1999. But then Ency only stole 46 bases from 2000-02, including 12 in 69 games with the Marlins last year. Using his Florida stats from last year, 25-30 steals was a possibility � right now Ency is on pace for 60. That goes along with two homers, 11 RBI, and a .282 BA. If Ency can maintain the steals while approaching his other �02 numbers (24 HR, 85 RBI) he will be a must-have.

More eye-popping are the eight steals (with no CS�s) from 6�5 250 lb first baseman Derrek Lee. Lee had only stolen 11 bases in his first four MLB seasons before busting out with 19 last year, and even that is one of the better numbers you will see out of that position. This comes with 4 HR and 17 RBI, after going 27/86 last year. The only negative currently is a .244 BA but look for that to improve as Lee has hit .281, .282, and .270 in recent seasons. Expect the SB�s to go down somewhat as opposing pitchers are bound to start taking Lee much more seriously.

And then there is Pudge Rodriguez. Irod was a menace on the basepaths once before, swiping 25 out of 37 attempts back in 1999. Injuries for the most part curtailed his running game after that, only stealing 20 between 2000-02. But the speed game is back in a big way this year, with five steals � and like Lee has not been caught yet. The other stats are fine as well with 4 homers, 18 RBI and a .300 BA, the transition to the National League has obviously gone just fine for Rodriguez.

There is one other Marlin who must be talked about. Going into this season Alex Gonzalez was a .241 career hitter who has floundered since going .277/14/59 in 1999. However Gonzo has suddenly blossomed this season with a .368 start, along with five homers and 16 RBI. What must be noted is that this is Gonzalez�s fifth full MLB season and also turned 26 over the winter, so both the fourth-year, and age-26 bust out theories are in play here. There hasn�t been much action lately in regards to buys/drops among shortstops in CDM. Alex could change that.

There is one variable that could rain on this parade, and of course it rains a lot in South Florida. Should the Marlins fall out of contention management could initiate yet another of their near-annual fire sales. Castillo and Pierre will always steal, but don�t count on Ency, Pudge, or Lee getting the green light as often in another locale. However the team is 11-11, and the NL East appears to be wide open this year. Hopefully, the team stays intact and continues to run wild.


HAVES AND HAVE NOTS

The injuries to Mariano Rivera and Derek Jeter have done absolutely nothing to derail the Yankee express. Hideki Matsui, Alfonso Soriano, Jorge Posada, and Bernie Williams are all on pace to drive in 150 runs!!!!! And then there�s Jason Giambi scuffling with a .200 BA and only 13 RBI�s. If you can find a impatient Giambi owner out there to trade off of, do it. The pitching staff is currently just as unstoppable. Mike Mussina is on one of his patented rolls, with a 4-0 slate and 1.86 ERA, with 33 K�s in 29 IP. Roger Clemens looks anything but someone trying to hang on for his 300th win, also with a 4-0 record, 2.12 ERA, and 31 K�s in 34 IP. David Wells is 3-0 with a 2.03 ERA and is also the lone MLB pitcher with two complete games. Rounding out the rotation is Andy Pettitte (3-0, 3.70 ERA), and Jeff Weaver (2-0, 3.25 ERA). Interim closer Juan Acevedo has scuffled some, but with some of the margins the Yankees are winning by, this is the one team than can easily survive. In fact, this is the one team that there would be no problem with a Red Sox-like committee situation.

And then there are the Tigers, a mess that Baghdad Bob would even be hard-pressed to spin the right way. Going into this week, facing a hypothetical lineup of NL starting pitchers (.180) would be more difficult then facing the Detroit lineup (.172). Incredibly the Tigers did manage to beat Barry Zito of all people, to gain their second win v. 17 losses in a game the Oakland went off at �380 in the Vegas Books. The Detroit lineup that night went as follows: Bobby Higginson (.205), Gene Kingsdale (.283), Craig Paquette (.172), Dimitri Young (.175), Craig Monroe (.133), Dean Palmer (two hits to raise his BA to .125), Shane Halter (.205), Brandon Inge (.128), and Omar Infante (.211). There was a good reason I recommended a grand total of zero Tiger hitters this year. The winning pitcher for Detroit was Jeremy Bonderman, who retired 17 straight A�s. Keep an eye out on the highly-regarded one-time Oakland prospect. He is just a pup at age 20. Even though I own Barry Zito (who didn�t pitch bad with 2 ER over 7 IP) I was just glad to see that team win. Alan Trammell is a good reason why I�m glad the likes of Paul Molitor and Robin Yount never said yes to managing the Brewers.


LARSON'S ICE SHELF BREAKS OFF

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A 4-42 slump has cost Carl Crawford his leadoff spot at Tampa at least temporarily, he has been demoted to ninth in the order. A 4-48 start got Cincinnati rookie third baseman Brandon Larson a one-way ticket back to AAA. Mark Teixeira is still scuffling at .161, while Hank Blalock continues to shine with a .422 BA and five home runs. KC�s Jeremy Affeldt is in line to become this year�s Josh Beckett, on the DL with a blister. Keep an eye on him when he comes back though, he has huge potential. Teammate Runelvys Hernandez remains white-hot with a 4-0 record, along with a 1.10 ERA/.98 ratio. Is not a strikeout guy though, with 17 K�s in 32.2 IP. Struggling Seattle closer Kaz Sasaki landed on the DL this week, lefty Arthur Rhodes along with Jeff Nelson are the candidates in the interim. San Diego�s Adam Eaton out-dueled Kerry Wood, striking out 12 in seven strikeout innings. Later on, Matt Herges threw his hat into the closers ring with two scoreless innings to earn the save. On the Cubs side, manager Don Baylor has hinted that Joe Borowski could continue to close when Antonio Alfonseca returns, sounds like a good idea to me. Also, Oakland and the White Sox are quickly finding out the frustration factor with the two closers the teams in effect traded for each other last winter. Finally, keep an eye on current Astro set-up man Brad Lidge (16 K�s in 15 IP, 0.60 ERA). Word has it that Billy Wagner will not be retained, and that Lidge will be groomed to become the teams closer for �04

.

Tough call on Randy Johnson this past weekend. The unit did some long-tossing on Saturday and threw on the side on Sunday. A report late on Sunday night indicated some concern on Unit making his scheduled Tuesday start in Montreal. Sure enough, Unit was placed on the DL early Monday. Just over a quarter of the top 250 CDM players took the chance on Randy this week, who is actually eligible to (DL was retroactive to 4/11) pitch last weekend. Teammate Curt Schilling was impressive in a win v. Colorado last Thursday, only to get sidelined by an appendectomy two days later. Schill has not been DL�d and may actually be available this weekend. Another possibility would be to activate Unit and to DL Schill until next Friday. On a more long-term note, speculation is already circulating about a possible trade should the D-Backs fall out of contention, with one possibility having Schilling returning to Philadelphia.

Now here are the top CDM pick-ups/drop for the week�


PICK-UPS
1. Todd Helton (1B/COL/491)
� Some were skittish at the start, but Todd has been very solid at .324/22/5/19.
2. Mike Lieberthal (C/PHI/487) � Hitting .328 thus far, personally Posada would be a better pick-up at this position.
3. Vernon Wells (OF/TOR/461) � But is only 4 for his last 30, and Blue Jays are apparently not allowed to steal.
4. Tim Hudson (SP/OAK/431) � Jumping on a two-start opportunity with home dates v. DET/CLE
5. Austin Kearns (OF/CIN/407) � Started the week with an MLB leading nine home runs.
6. Tim Worrell (RP/SF/327) � One of two hot reliever pick-ups right now.
7. Mike McDougal (RP/KC/302) � Now up to eight saves, like Twins relievers the past two years, appears to be getting a save opp literally every night.
8. Hank Blalock (3B/TX/247)
9. Mike Lowell (3B/FL/204)
� Yet another hot Marlin (.282/4/17), but may be one of the first to go in a fire sale.
10. Runelvys Hernandez (SP/KC/193)


DROPS:
1. Ken Griffey Jr. (OF/CIN/664)
� Remains on the bench of about a third of challenge rosters.
2. Junior Spivey (2B/AZ/326) � Still scuffling at .185.
3. Eli Marrero (C/STL/230) � Lieberthal for Marrero moves seemed to be quite popular.
4. Josh Phelps (1B/TOR/189) � Starting to heat up though.
5. Frank Thomas (1B/CWS/173) � Also showing signs of coming around.
6. Brandon Larson (3B/CIN/159)
7. Odalis Perez (SP/LA/157)
� Borderline pitching option to begin with, bum ankle makes him a drop option.
8. Roy Halladay (SP/TOR/153) � Another �02 stud falling by the wayside. 4.96 ERA/1.56 ratio.
9. Aramis Ramirez (3B/PIT/141) � Dropping third basemen for Blalock also getting popular.
10. Charles Johnson (C/COL/140) � Not so fast, went 5-8/4/1/4 in two home games last weekend.


WEEK 5 PREVIEW

Could Canada�s other team be soon embarking on an extended road trip??? Toronto is scheduled to begin a nine-game homestand this week. However, players from other teams (Anaheim�s Kevin Appier being one) are being to speak out on concerns regarding the SARS virus. I don�t see any action being taken on this one though??? What happens if/when the disease spreads stateside, do we suspend the season then??? Doubtful.

The schedule is very straight forward � LA, PHI, AZ, and FL have seven games, everyone else will play six. Houston will have ATL/FL at home while the Reds will be in Colorado for three. Other teams at home include MIL, STL, AZ, SD, LA, SF, BOS, NYY, TOR, CLE, DET, and CWS. On the road will be MON, NYM, CIN, PIT, ATL, FL, PHI, TB, KC, SEA, TX, ANH, and OAK.

Two start candidates include Kerry Wood, Bartolo Colon, Vincente Padilla, Kevin Brown, Greg Maddux, Barry Zito, Roger Clemens, Roy Oswalt, and possibly Wade Miller.

Next weeks CDM Free Agent list will be much better with the likes of Eurubiel Durazo and Dave Roberts available among others. This week's list is as follows...

C 9 VARITEK, JASON BOS 690000
1B 119 VAUGHN, MO NYM 910000
2B 227 JIMENEZ, D`ANGELO CWS 530000
3B 315 HINSKE, ERIC TOR 880000
SS 414 HERNANDEZ, JOSE COL 940000
OF 521 EDMONDS, JIM STL 1350000
OF 553 DUNN, ADAM CIN 900000
SP 817 MOYER, JAMIE SEA 1080000
SP 862 SCHMIDT, JASON SF 790000
RP 1116 GUARDADO, EDDIE MIN 1250000


LATROY F. HAWKINS AWARD

With a 6.35 ERA, a 2.29 ratio and four blown saves, this is a long overdue honor for Armando Benitez. It would be so very much like the Red Sox to take a flier on this guy.




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