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2004 KAC BASEBALL BLUE SHEET - WEEK 4


RUNS HARD TO COME BY UP NORTH



I have to remind myself sometimes that it is still only April. Just two days ago I was wallowing in 10th place in a 12-team league, only ahead of the two entries who don�t care and have already mailed in the season. Then the following happened: All five of my starters (Matt Morris, Jake Peavy, Pedro Martinez, Ben Sheets, and Brian Lawrence) all rack up wins. Even relievers Dan Kolb and Joe Nathan don�t botch things up and earn saves. Corey Patterson goes 5-6, Mike Lowell hits three dongs in one night, Javy Lopez continues to hit, Geoff Jenkins hits a two-run bomb, Rafael Furcal hits a three-run jack in extra innings, even Richie Sexson scores a pair of runs.

Two nights, a 27 point improvement, and suddenly I�m tied for first place. And that�s despite still being in the bottom half in home runs, and with a team ERA over 4 and a WHIP of 1.39. Then on an appearance on Sports Overnight America, I asked host Matt Johnson if dropping Lawrence for Atlanta�s Jaret Wright would be a good idea (Johnson had endorsed Jaret earlier in the program). The answer from Johnson and his co-host was a wholehearted yes. Why Jaret throws 95-96, while Lawrence nibbles all night in a Questec era and possesses a heater that wouldn�t even get him busted on Interstate 5. Never mind that Jaret can�t find home plate.. More intelligent research later on netted me Pittsburgh�s Oliver Perez (3.09/1.03 thus far), not long ago considered the crown jewel of the San Diego system.

It�s still only April, but this is the best time of the year to claw through the waiver wire, if for nothing else but to acquire the depth necessary to get you through the next five months.


CANADA DRY

It�s never good when the local hockey teams are scoring more in the playoffs than the baseball team. Case in point are the Expos run totals in their first 16 games: 3, 3, 0, 2, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 2, 3, 4, 1, 2, 2, 2. That accounts for 26 runs for the entire season, or about a weekend�s worth out of the Cardinals. The next-to-last team in runs scored (PHI) has 52 runs. The good news is the Expos finally start their home schedule this week, the bad news is that the Habs are playing at the same time and Field-Turf has been installed in Olympic Stadium as well as Puerto Rico, so look for the hitters to be hampered even more.

More surprising are the Blue Jays offensive problems (Chris Gomez grand slams off Schilling notwithstanding), Toronto has scored three or less runs in 10 of 15 contests. The worst fears of Vernon Wells weight loss program have come to roost, as he has driven in only one RBI thus far with a .213 BA, although it still ranked among the team leaders. Even more shocking is Carlos Delgado�s .170 BA with 2 HR and 5 RBI. On the pitching side, Roy Halladay has added a changeup to his arsenal but SkyDome is now the only old-fashioned artificial surface left in the majors, which will hurt him during his home starts. Will anyone north of the border even care when that Leafs/Habs conference final starts a couple weeks from now.

Despite looking somewhat human over the weekend, don�t fret about Eric Gagne. In a memorable duel with Barry Bonds on Friday night, Bonds got in front of a 101 MPH heater and hooked it about a mile foul. Bonds then took Gagne�s next offering (100 MPH) and drove it out to dead center for a two-run blast. Gagne then bore down and closed out the game. The next day Gagne gave up another home run, but ended the game with Bonds on deck. Gagne came back for a third straight day on Sunday and struck out the side, again with Bonds hopelessly on the on-deck circle as the third out was recorded.

What a monster week for third basemen, it�s hard to find a place to begin. Aramis Ramirez goes off for 13 RBI in five windswept home games at Wrigley. Scott Rolen is already up to 26 RBI in just the Cardinals first 16 games. Mike Lowell got into the act with 4 HR/6 RBI in a three game span in Philadelphia. San Diego�s Sean Burroughs doesn�t hit for power, but is hitting .368 through 68 AB�s. And this may finally be Adrian Beltre's breakout year, he is .379/6/16 in his first 15 games. And then there�s Alex Rodriguez, he only went 1-17 over the weekend in Boston. Considering his obvious less than warm welcome in Fenway, that is almost predictable. But the Yankees brutal travel schedule will continue for the next few months. A couple of west coast trips await in May, along with a third cross country jaunt in June for interleague play.

And then it's back to Bonds. In nine home games this year, Bonds has gone 13-19 with eight home runs, an .813 on-base percentage, a 2.053 slugging percentage (averaging a double for every at-bat) and a 2.865 OPS. For the year Bonds is hitting an even .500 (19-38), if anyone has a shot at the big .4 - 0 - 0 (at age 4 - 0 yet), it's Bonds.

There was some very heavy activity on the CDM waiver wire this week, mostly concerning outfielders and starting pitchers, along with some response to Angel Berroa's migraine.


ADDS

  1. Scott Podsednik OF-MIL (548) � As much as I like the power contribution (3 HR) along with the 9 steals, it worries me a little. After hitting his first bomb on opening day, Po started swinging for the fences on quickly found himself in an 0-14 slump. Then came a 2-HR game in Houston, sure enough he followed that up by going 2-14. Po is now on about half of the top 250 rosters and is highly recommended if hurting for steals.

  2. Miguel Cabrera OF-FLA (388) � Here is someone who with his salary should had honestly been on everyone�s roster from day 1. Blew up for five home runs in four games and is now old enough to drink, what a bargain!!!

  3. Richard Hidalgo OF-HOU (381) � St. Louis cooled him off so far this week, but still has 19 ribbies with a trip to Coors on tap this weekend, CHA-CHING!!!

  4. Jermaine Dye OF-OAK (354) � Forget about last year�s .172, I�ve regretted not considering this guy from his first AB this year. Dye is hitting .319 in 16 games with 7 HR/18 RBI. And Dye goes 6�5 220 � the power will continue, and he�s still on only 58 of the top 250 rosters.

  5. Dontrelle Willis SP-FL (335) � The most popular two-start pick-up of the week, D-Train has now gone 19 1/3 IP without an earned run, holding batters to a .178 average.

  6. Kaz Matsui SS-NYM (281) � Angel Berroa�s injury forced a lot of teams hands this week. Wasn�t Kaz supposed to be a stolen base monster???

  7. Adam Dunn OF-CIN (274) � So far, so good with that .356 average. Stay in the lineup every day and Dunn could lead all batters not named Bonds in home runs this year.

  8. Arthur Rhodes RP-OAK (256) � Over 80 percent of the top teams now start Rhodes, making him the #1 used reliever.

  9. Mat Herges RP-SF (254) � Got a lot of saves early, but was pulled from a save opp this week and Rob Nen among others could muddy the water sooner than expected.

  10. Tony Womack SS-STL (187) � Virtually the same price as Kaz, Womack has 7 SB�s which is 7 more than Kaz. The long-term prospects of Womack remaining a regular are not guaranteed however, and it has been since 2000 that Womack has been a 30+ steal man.



DROPS

  1. J.D Drew OF-ATL (519) � Many owners jumped off the bridge on Drew this week, which may be a mistake. Drew is back in the Brave lineup hitting third this week and showing signs of life.

  2. Preston Wilson OF-COL (471) � Knee surgery disappointed many who were waiting for that two-week homestand. Matt Holliday for 750K anyone???

  3. Angel Berroa SS-KC (350) � This isn�t good, Berroa underwent a spinal tap to find the cause of his migraine headaches, which were severe enough to cause vomiting. The scary thing is that a cause has not been found, so there is no firm word on a possible return, although he is scheduled to practice this weekend.

  4. Jose Contreras SP-NYY (239) � Many still look at JC as a diamond in the rough, but not being able to bear down against the Red Sox after being staked to a 7-run lead is a very bad sign. Returning to the bullpen seems like a much higher possibility right now.

  5. Morgan Ensberg 3B-HOU (237) � Still hitting below the Mendoza line and in a semi-platoon situation.

  6. David Riske SP-CLE (187) � I was as down on Riske as anyone two weeks ago, but he has bounced back and saved his last two without incident. Biggest question right now is whether the Tribe will present him with enough save opps.

  7. Johan Santana SP-MN (171) � Another one that players may have jumped off too quickly on. Santana is slowing coming around, winning his first of the year this week. Don�t be surprised to see him on the top add list in the future.

  8. Hideki Matsui OF-NYY (169) � Unfortunately, no more upcoming trips to Japan for the Yankees. How much longer before Kaz joins him on this list.
  9. Mark Prior SP-CHC (156) � No setbacks in his rehab in the past week.

  10. Rocco Baldelli OF-TB (139) � Slumping, and has only 2 RBI and no stolen bases. Maybe he will be the next Joe Charboneau instead of the next DiMaggio.



WEEK 4 SCHEDULE

7 GAMES: FL, PIT, MTL, SD, SF, BAL, SEA, TOR
5 GAMES: CLE, MIL

HOME: NYY, CWS, DET, MN, MIL, STL, COL (3 v. FL, 3 v. ATL),LA, SD, SF
ROAD: TOR, ANH, OAK, SEA, ATL, FL, NYM, MTL, CHC, CIN

TWO-STARTS (RETURN OF THE STAFF ACES): Colon, Hudson, M. Morris, R. Johnson, Peavy, Webb, J. Schmidt


CDM FREE AGENT LIST

C � Jason Varitek (680) � Hitting .350 but RBI (4) a disappointment thus far.
1B � Jeff Bagwell (1620) � Off to a red-hot start (.367/17/5/15 in 16 games)
2B � Luis Rivas (890) � Second base is a wasteland right now, I don�t expect Rivas to be the one to emerge.
3B � Shea Hillenbrand (1010) � Three home runs but hitting under .200,, think Glaus at this price range.
SS � Alex Gonzalez (FL � 680) � Pick him up and in a month you�ll feel like you�ve gone 10 rounds with Todd Pratt.
OF � Sammy Sosa (CHC � 1410) � Comes at a nice price this year, pencil him in for his usual 40 bombs.
OF � Jose Guillen (ANH � 670) � Has yet to go deep this year, whether it�s power or speed your looking for, you can find much better at this price range.
SP- Mark Mulder (OAK � 1200) � 2.23 ERA in four starts, you get your value�s worth here.
SP � Jake Peavy (SD � 810) � Should be the top pick up with a home start V. THE EXPOS plus a second start at the dog pound v. the Mets. Should be awesome this week.
RP � Jason Isringhausen (STL � 1290) � Only two saves thus far, might as well look at the cheaper closers.





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