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2003 KAC BASEBALL BLUE SHEET - WEEK 3


Prior and Maddux headed in opposite directions...



I asked last week where all the strikeouts had gone. The answer came this Wednesday in a classic pitchers duel at Wrigley Field between Mark Prior and Javier Vazquez. Mark Prior showed he was is as good as I�ve said he�d be since two years ago by striking out 12, allowing four hits and most importantly walking no one in a complete game shutout. The word complete game is the biggest key, showing that Prior will not be babied in the Dusty Baker regime. Just as significant was Javier Vazquez�s performance in a losing cause, whiffing 14 while allowing five hits and also allowing no free passes over seven innings. A two run homer by Damian Miller was the only thing that ruined Vazquez�s day. Javier also pitched five shutout innings in his opening start and appears to have returned to the dominance he enjoyed in the latter stages of 2001, where he was as good as anyone in MLB. Prior and Vazquez are now tied for the MLB lead with 19 strikeouts in the early going.

But in other locales, offense is as trendy as ever. San Francisco and San Diego combined for 26 runs in what is usually a pitcher-friendly park in SF. After a couple of pitcher duels in cold weather, Coors Field also returned to form with a wild 15-12 12-inning game between the Cards and Rockies. Cincinnati�s new park appears to be fast becoming the latest arena baseball venue, with 22 home runs hit there over it�s first six games. But not far behind was Atlanta�s Turner Field, usually a pitchers park which saw 18 homers over six games. Of course when Greg Maddux is losing games he starts 17-1 and 16-2 that is going to factor in.


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After one week numbers are starting to come together in the CDM Diamond Challenge on who the most popular players are, with not too many surprises. Here is the positional rundown.

CATCHERS � In what was a surprise at least to me, Ivan Rodiguez (1120 salary) starts on 87 of the top 100 rosters this week, while Jorge Posada is only starting on three. I continue to rate the two dead even and the early stats appear to support that. Toby Hall appears on 35 of the top 100, and is a good budget play at 460 who unlike last year should not disappoint. 13 of the top 100 took a chance on Eli Marrero this week thanks to the Cards series in Colorado. That was a tough call considering St. Louis was rained out on Sunday and the news has been pretty vague on his physical condition with a variety of ailments.

FIRST BASE � Erubiel Durazo with his 520 salary has been the most popular as he starts on 81 of 100. Other cheap values include Aubrey Huff (36/100) and Josh Phelps (33/100). Jason Giambi (31) is the one high-price play while Frank Thomas starts on 29 rosters.

SECOND BASE � To no ones surprise, Alfonso Soriano is a near-unamious play on 99 out of the 100 rosters. Jeff Kent (1670) is even more expensive but starts on 26/100 with the Astros at home this week. Junior Spivey 22/100 while Blue Jay utility man Frank Catalanotto appears on 12 teams.

THIRD BASE � Joe Crede (500) was obviously on a lot of radar screens, and appears on 75/100 rosters. Aramis Ramirez appears on exactly one-half of the rosters, but I have a feeling his popularity will fall in future weeks as Ramirez is struggling early. Other plays include Aaron Boone (24/100) and Eric Chavez (18).

SHORTSTOPS � As usual, this position is being utilized by the high-ticket Nomar Garciaparra (93/100) along with Alex Rodriguez (70/100 with a 2010 salary). Jimmy Rollins (15/100) and Rich Aurilia (12/100) are the only others remotely considered. Surprisingly Miguel Tejada (1700) appears on only three of the top rosters.

OUTFIELDERS � With this past weekends unfortunate injury to Ken Griffey Jr. there is no dominant play at the position in the early going, which is somewhat unusual. Fellow Reds outfielder Austin Kearns along with Tampa Bay speedster Carl Crawford (420 salary) are the most utilized at 69/100. They are followed by Juan Gonzalez (60), Vladimir Guerrero (59 despite a 2010 salary), Manny Ramirez (56), Vernon Wells (53), stolen base producer Dave Roberts (46), Adam Dunn (44), and Hideki Matsui (31).

STARTING PITCHERS � For this position only I will go with percentage of top 100 rosters starting or bench, as opposed to just starting this week. As usual contestants are breaking the budget with Pedro Martinez (98), Randy Johnson (88), and Curt Schilling (84). If his first two starts are any indication Kevin Brown (85 � 990 salary) will be a steal. Mark Prior is on all 100 of the top rosters, with 84 starting him this week. He will be a consensus play with two starts next week. Other top picks include Roy Oswalt (83), Jason Schmidt (64), Kerry Wood (60), Kevin Millwood (54), Wade Miller (53), and Roy Halladay (52), Josh Beckett (47), and Barry Zito (43 � thought he�d be on more).

RELIEF PITCHERS � Usually not a lot of variety at this position and this year is no different with tops this week being Matt Mantei (85 � 700 salary), Scott Williamson (80 � 960 salary), along with Keith Foulke (62) and Billy Wagner (60). Cleveland�s Danny Baez (44 � 980) is the other prominent reliever being utilized. Look for red-hot Royal closer Mike McDougal (4 saves on the year) to work himself onto the rosters of many. McDougal was unlisted to start the year and only appears on five of the top 100 this week.

Carl Crawford (513 pick-ups) was the most popular acquisition of the week followed by MacDougal (409), Austin Kearns (286), Erubiel Durazo (226), Hank Blaylock (179), Juan Gonzalez (155), and Kevin Brown (134). I have a feeling Mac will be an even bigger pick-up this coming week.

Obviously, Ken Griffey was by far and away the biggest drop being released by 1374 teams. Griff was followed by would-be Tampa closer Jesus Colome (186), Mark Teixiera (146), Derek Jeter (104), and Alan Embree (97). Injury/demotion was the main factor in most of those. Look for A. Ramirez and Eli Marrero to get big time drops this week, along with more Griffey's being thrown overboard.


OTHER NOTES
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For anyone who watched the Sunday night game got a glimpse of the hitting prowess of Erubiel Durazo. The close-up on his eye concentration as he turned on a pitch spoke a thousand words. Also, Durazo is said to have short arms. That may sound like a weakness, but actually this makes it practically impossible for pitchers attempting to jam him inside. Even more impressive than his 9-23, 11 RBI start is the eight walks in as many games that he has drawn. Look for Durazo to be among the AL batting leaders all season. And in case the A�s rotation at the major league level wasn�t good enough, the organization is loaded at the minor-league level as well. A prospect named Rich Harden was left behind at AA to get some extra seasoning, and the Canadian as proceeded to retire all 39 batters (17 K�s) he has faced thus far. I think you can give that promotion now.

Shea Hillenbrand is off to yet another monster start, leading the world with 15 RBI in his first eight games. He still doesn�t show excessive power (1 HR thus far) so look for him to cool down. Texas third basemen Hank Blalock is making sure he does not get a return trip to the minors this year, starting 13-28 while equaling last years total of three HR�s. Blalock will still have to fight for AB�s with Mark Teixiera (pronounced TISCH-ERA) who finally got off the schnide with two hits in a game and is now 2-18. 1B Lyle Overbay struggled in the first week as well for Arizona before connecting on a game-winning extra-inning blast to win a game. Rich Aurilia has done a nice Kent-like job hitting ahead of Barry Bonds so far, going 11-33 with three early home runs while teammate Jose Cruz Jr. leads MLB with five homers along with a .378 BA. Ray Durham has also stepped it up in the speed game with four stolen bases, 36 is his career high. So far so good for Kevin Brown with a 0.73 ERA/.81 ratio in his first two starts, but is still only a six-inning pitcher at this point with only 7 K�s in his 12 innings of work.

Hitters mired in slumps at this point include Toronto 3B Eric Hinske who earned a day off with a 3-25 start, while big Adam Dunn has picked up where he left off in �02 going 4-29. Aramis Ramirez is another struggling third basemen who�s beginning to hear the boo-birds after popping up with the bases loaded in a crucial situation. Mike DeJean solidified his grip on the Milwaukee closing job earning saves on back-to-back nights displaying a wicked assortment of pitches. An interesting story about Mike, upon being traded from the Rockies in 2001 DeJean picked up his belongings and headed for the airport without stopping to bid farewell to his former teammates. Another Rockie pitcher eventually caught up with him later and asked why he left like that. DeJean�s response was �If you were in the same boat, you�d leave as fast as possible as well�� Mind you, this was someone being traded from Colorado to Milwaukee, not to the Yankees or another contender. Meanwhile reigning NL Rookie of the Year Jason Jennings has given up 15 hits and 11 ER�s in nine innings thus far, think he isn�t counting the days until he becomes a free agent???

Finally, there is my first fearless prediction of the season - The Cubs will make the playoffs while the Braves will not (notice how TBS is trying to dis-own them)


WEEK 3 SCHEDULE

Things really pick up in the coming week, as 16 teams play seven games. Look for Jason Giambi and Hideki Matsui to have huge weeks, as the Yankees face seven right-handed starters. That does not bode as well for Jorge Posada, as the switch-hitter is .250 v. righties lifetime v. .313 against lefties. Other nice schedules include Milwaukee (indoors) getting Houston and St. Louis at home, as well as Montreal entertaining NYM (1 game), ATL (3 games) and CIN (3 games) in the cozy confines of San Juan. Colorado gets San Diego at home for three, Houston spends the week on the road (SF/MIL). There is also an impressive selection of two start pitchers including Mark Prior, Javier Vazquez (band box alert), Mike Mussina, Roy Halladay (but at NYY and BOS), Mark Buehrle (both at home), Mark Mulder, Greg Maddux (oh, oh, Puerto Rico), and Josh Beckett.


LATROY HAWKINS AWARD

For the first time since last August, Jorge Julio got a save opportunity. In fact he got two. Unfortunately he was pulled from one after walking four batters and then coughed up a game three nights later in Tampa. Also, any chance Jesus Colome had of being Tampa�s closer went by the boards when he came in a mop up situation v. the Yankees and was shelled for five earned runs including a couple of homers. Worse yet, Colome failed to cover first on a ground ball. Next day manager Lou Pinella named Lance Carter as the closer, and has performed admirably since. Should Carter fail, there is always Plan C, as John Rocker was given a tryout earlier this week. Talk about desperation.




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