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2003 KAC BASEBALL BLUE SHEET - WEEK 2


The Jeter injury, and it's impact...



As seems to be the case each and every season, it did not take long after the first pitch of the season to have the first key injury � when Toronto catcher Ken Huckaby put a flying knee drop on Derek Jeter�s shoulder, as the Yankee shortstop was attempting to move from first to third on a ground ball out as the Blue Jay defense had a pronounced shift on batter Jason Giambi, forcing Huckaby to cover third to make the play on the head-first sliding Jeter.

As of this writing the timetable regarding Jeter�s absence ranges from six weeks to four months (or possibly even the year) depending on whether surgery will be required. If you were unfortunate enough to draft Jeter, there is no way to sugarcoat the situation - it sucks. But there are other area Jeter�s injury impacts the fantasy world, and in some aspects even in a positive sense.

BATTING ORDER � In the two games following the Jeter injury Nick Johnson and Todd Zeile were moved to the second position in the Yankee batting order, with the rest of the lineup remaining intact � meaning Giambi, Bernie Williams, Matsui, and Jorge Posada still man the #3 thru #6 slots in the order. Do not expect much, if any drop-off from that nucleus. Erick Almonte was called up to replace Jeter, and will get most of the starts for the time being. Hitting ninth, Almonte hit a home run and drove in three runs in his season debut. Almonte hit 17 HR�s along with 61 RBI between AA and AAA in 2002, but only hit .238. If he proves up to the task Almonte could move into the #2 hole and be a nice fantasy pick-up.

PENNANT RACE � Even in the worst case scenario regarding Jeter�s return, NYY obviously is not going to go in the tank and finish 20 games under .500, and the 3-0 start without DJ confirms that. This is obviously one team that won�t de decimated by losing a key player. But now the team realizes that they must buckle down, and cannot just cruise towards the postseason. Hopefully, there will be spirited batted between Boston and New York that will go well into September, with Giambi/Matsui/Posada being needed every step of the way. Who knows, perhaps the Red Sox will be in contention enough that Pedro Martinez will actually pitch the final week of the season.

TRADE POSSIBILITIES � Some have suggested sarcastically that the Yanks now go out and acquire Alex Rodriguez. That won�t happen, but the idea is not that far fetched. There is a possibility that the team could acquire free-agent to be Miguel Tejada. However I do not see that happening unless Oakland somehow fell out of contention, which does not seem like a possibility. Cleveland�s Omar Vizquel has been discussed, but Vizquel has said publicly that he would be against such a trade. Also keep in mind that the Yankees take a bigger salary-tax hit with the new CBA, although money never seems to be much of an issue with George Steinbrenner.

For those playing CDM or other salary-cap type games, any long-term layoff by Jeter would also make him more affordable than normal in the next two seasons � which would make Jeter a good value much like Nomar Garciaparra has been the past two years.

The best fantasy teams make their adjustments and scour the waiver wire early. There are a number of early developments affecting some positions. Here is the rundown.

RELIEVERS � San Francisco brass have been assuring us all spring that Rob Nen would be ready when the bell rang. However, the veteran closer had a setback during an Opening Day workout and is now out for at least the next three weeks. Manager Felipe Alou indicated that it would be closer by committee in the interim � what a surprise. However, veteran Tim Worrell quickly snatch a couple of saves in SF�s opening sweep of San Diego. Worrell figures to get a few more opps this weekend against the equally woeful Brewers, as well as in the Giants ten-game homestand starting next week. Felix Rodriguez is the other prime late inning option here.

I also successfully snatched up Royals closer Mike McDougal on both my Yahoo teams after the youngster recorded saves in KC�s first two games. McDougal can be wild, but has also been clocked at 103 MPH which will get anyone�s attention. Also, Rocky Biddle, and not Scott Stewart got the Expos first save opportunity of the season. Mike DeJean (4 ER, 2/3 IP) imploded in his first save situation of the year, which may bring Luis Vizciano more into play.

FIRST BASEMAN � One of the more interesting comparisons to follow this season will be between Erubiel Durazo (OAK), Josh Phelps (TOR), and Audrey Huff (TB). All three had virtually the same pre-season auction value and all go for around the same price in CDM. Durazo struck the first blow by driving in all five runs in Oakland�s opening day victory while Huff delivered a two run shot the following day. All three appear to be headed for breakout seasons however.

CATCHER - Most cheat sheets had Ivan Rodriguez ahead of Jorge Posada, but Posada is 5-13 with a homer and 5 RBI this week. Irod is 3-7 with an HR and three RBI himself, but is playing some shoddy defense with three passed balls along with some questionable pitch selection. Like Mike Piazza a few years back, Pudge is just in town until the team receives a good offer.

THIRD BASE � Mark Teixeira makes the Rangers opening day lineup after hitting a club record eight home runs in the exhibition season. But hitting them once the games count for real is another matter, and Teixeira is 0-7 in the early going.

STARTING PITCHERS � The following goes against the power pitching trends of recent seasons. In the first three days, only Mike Mussina was able to compile as many as eight strikeouts. A handful of hurlers including Hideo Nomo, Corey Lidle, Jason Schmidt, and Andy Petitte did as well as record seven strikeouts. Pedro Martinez recorded six K�s, while Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling had five strikeouts apiece. Nomo was the lone pitcher to record a complete game.

There have been many who have criticized Arizona management for giving Randy Johnson a two year extension at well over $30 million. One smart-assed announcer (for a team that would never have a chance at signing Unit if he were ever to go on the open market again) suggested that Unit could now �buy himself a personality�. Although Unit was touched up somewhat in his opening start, don�t write him off. Nolan Ryan had some of his best seasons past the age of 40, with an ERA of 2.91 while holding opposing batters to a .172 average in 1991 at the age of 44. Ryan also stuck out 16 Toronto Blue Jays while recording his seventh no-hitter that year, and K�d 14 Oakland batters in no-hitter #6 the year before. The Jays and A�s also happened to be two of the better hitting teams of that era. Point of the matter is, don�t give up on a pitcher just because he�s getting advanced in years.

Also keep an eye out on 38-year old Kevin Brown, who definitely appears on the rebound after six shutout innings v. Arizona. He could be returning to his mid to late-1990�s form.


OTHER NOTES

So much for Alex Rodriguez�s herniated disk. Arod quickly belted two home runs to become the youngest to reach 300 in a career. He�s on pace to surpass Hank Aaron before the end of the Mayan calander. Barry Bonds opened 1-10, but made yet another flirtation with the Jack Murphy Stadium scoreboard with that lone hit. Shawn Green made good on his promise to hit from the get-go, going 4-4 with a home run and a double in one game, and 7-12 to start the year. Hideki Matsui�s transition to major league ball has gone reasonably well so far. No homers from Godzilla yet but went 4-14 with 3 RBI. Hopefully you heeded my advice last week on Tampa Bay�s Carl Crawford, who has the early MLB stolen base lead with three in three games while chipping in with a 3-run homer on Opening Day. In the challenge games, always look for the cheap steals for it�s always the youngsters looking to make an impression likely to make an impact in that area.


WEEK 2 SCHEDULE

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ATL, FL, LA, and SF have seven game schedules, with the other 26 MLB teams playing six games. An inviting early season schedule continues for the Astros, as they have Cincy and St. Louis at home. Cards will also visit Colorado on the road. The Expos also start a stretch of 16 �home games� with the first ten taking place in Puerto Rico. It will be the Mets visiting San Juan next weekend in a park that features power alleys measuring in at just over 350 feet. Now if we can just get MLB to schedule some games in Mexico City (along with European cricket/soccer fields) for added bandbox enjoyment. Other teams spending the week at home include CHC, FLA (6 of 7), SF (all 7), CLE, DET, NYY, TOR, and SEA. Teams on the road include MIL, ATL (6 of 7), NYM, CHW, KC, MN, BAL, OAK.

Obviously the two-start pitcher list will not be as impressive with most staff aces seeing two starts this week. The two-steppers do include Barry Zito (35-6 since August of '01), Mike Mussina, Wade Miller, Derek Lowe, Kevin Brown, and Damian Moss. Also, Arizona�s game in Colorado on Sunday stands a good chance at being snowed-out. In that event Curt Schilling would get two starts in Week 2 as well. Schilling and Unit are assured of weekend starts at home v. Milwaukee.


LATROY HAWKINS AWARD

I�ll admit to being slightly unfair continuing to name this after the Twins reliever, who did bounce back with a 2.13 ERA and sub 1.00 ratio last season as a valuable set-up man. This little honor goes to those would-be closers who simply implode in the ninth inning, robbing their teams of certain victory and making their fantasy owners head for the antacids � as Latroy did for about a month straight two years ago. We have a classic recipient for Week 1 in Jose Jiminez, who coughed up five earned runs on six hits and a walk while retiring only one batter as the Astros rallied for an 8-7 victory. It took John Smoltz half the year to repair his ERA after a similar outing at this time last year, what does that say for the prospects of one who pitches half his games in Coors Field???




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