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WAR SHEET


FANTASY BASEBALL WEEK 1 PREVIEW

Crucial last minute advice for those tough choices...



Now that everyone's NCAA brackets have eroded quicker than an Antarctic ice shelf, it is time to roll the first edition of the second annual weekly KAC WAR SHEET, a complete source for smashing your fantasy league. Personally, this is my 15th year in the roto-wars, which tells you all about my experience, and how sick this game really is. While annualy going through the stats and bios of a few hundred big-leagues, it gets kind of hard to differentiate between player "A" and player "B". Of two players whose values appear to be the same, is there that crucial piece of info that I'm missing???

With that in mind, we're going to arrange a number of impromptu matchups (kind of like celebrity boxing or a primary election) among players with similar salaries in CDM. The research involves the annual "triple values" unveiled two weeks ago in Baseball Weekly. The first and third values come from John Hunt and Alex Patton (kind of the Peter Gammons of roto-ball). The second value comes from the dollar amount the players went for in BW's LABR draft, involving fantasy experts from various publications. The only flaw with these values is that they are done with 4 X 4 as opposed to 5 X 5 in mind. Guess roto-leagues including runs and strikeouts are sac-religious to Lord Hunt and Lord Patton. Be sure to enter the "beat John Hunt" portion of the CDM game and take your $25 from him...

CATCHER - Mike Piazza (CDM salary 1460) v. Ivan Rodriguez (1360) Piazza values go at 28/31/29 while Pudge goes for 25/26/27. Pudge has a couple of more health issues but both hit in the middle of great lineups. Call this one a toss up.

CATCHER - Jorge Posada (990) v. Paul LoDuca (840) - Posada weighs in at 14/18/18 while the cheaper LoDuca is listed as 18/23/23, making LoDuca a clear winner by TKO. Tampa Bay's Toby Hall (320) may have the best bang for the buck in CDM, going for 8/16/11.

FIRST BASE - Jim Thome (1320) v. Ryan Klesko (1300) v. Frank Thomas (1300) v. Richie Sexson (1280) v. Sean Casey (1260) - Klesko has the best value at 31/29/27 due in part to the 20 SB's he brings. Thome offers 40+ HR power at 29/24/26. Thomas is valued at 28/25/27, just about right coming off last years injury. If your looking at 50 HR potential Sexson may be your best bet at 24/26/26 while Casey is your man if you're looking for a high BA, and goes for 31/24/23.

FIRST BASE - Derrick Lee (780) v. Tony Clark (770) - At first glance, the power hitting Clark seems like the better option, he goes for 8/20/15. But Lee hits in a good lineup as well and is listed at 18/20/16. Obviously, Hunt is much higher on Lee than Clark.

THIRD BASE - Corey Koskie (1130) v. Eric Chavez (1070) v. Aramis Ramirez (990) - Koskie provides the most speed among third sackers and goes for 23/26/24. Chavez has the most power potential and is valued at 22/29/27. Ramirez though projects as the best value of the three and goes for 22/25/26.

THIRD BASE - Adrian Beltre (890) v. Mike Lowell (870) v. Tony Batista (850) - Beltre is the safest pick of the three and is listed at 22/22/17. Mike Lowell's weakness is in the power department and he goes for 14/16/18. Batista is a Vinny Castilla bust-or-boom type and coule be a steal at 14/17/11.

SHORTSTOPS - Jimmy Rollins (940) v. Rafael Furcal (890) - Rollins talks about stealing 100 bases while Furcal is coming off a shoulder injury. Rollins comes in at 26/29/28 while Furcal goes for 18/23/25. Jimmy comes out a clear-cut winner in this one.

Outfielders Sammy Sosa (1890) v. Vladimir Guerrero (1870) v. Barry Bonds (1830) v. SS Alex Rodriguez (1880) - The battle of the heavyweights. Sosa is the best bet among the outfielders going for 42/40/44. Vlad is just half a notch down at 41/39/38. Hunt appears not to be too impressed with Bonds who checks in at 31/37/40. However, if you are looking for one high-priced bat for CDM, go with Arod who is listed at 47/42/44.

OUTFIELD - Carlos Beltran (1460) v. Juan Gonzalez (1460) v. Gary Sheffield (1450) v. Ken Griffey Jr. (1400) - The cruiserweight division. Juan Gone appears to be the best best at 33/35/32. Hunt appears to be sold on Griffey, who checks in at 36/29/29. Hunt is also high on Sheffield who is listed at 35/29/39. Beltran is the biggest risk of the four and is at 26/32/29.

OUTFIELD - Ichiro Suzuki (1330) v. Lance Berkman (1320) v. Albert Pujols (1330) - The light-heavyweight division. Ichiro is the clear winner going for 47/34/43. Berkman checks in at a solid 31/32/34 - and more valuable for those weeks he's at home. Pujols comes in surprisingly low at 22/29/37.

OUTFIELD - Cliff Floyd (1220) v. Garret Anderson (1200) v. Darin Erstad (1200) v. Preston Wilson (1180) v. Jose Cruz Jr. (1190) v. Juan Pierre 32/34/28 - The middleweight division. Especially if your looking for steals and runs, Pierre a.k.a the poor man's Ichiro, is the best of the bunch at 32/34/28. Other than that, it is the Florida players over the Anaheim guys. Floyd is a 4 and a half category performer at 31/29/28 while Preston goes for 28/28/29. Garrett Anderson meanwhile checks in at 20/24/25 while the inconsistant Erstad is at 25/25/21. Jose Cruz checks in at 24/26/27.

OUTFIELD - J.D. Drew (1010) v. Roger Cedeno (970) v. Geoff Jenkins (950) v. Gabe Kapler (940) Pat Burrell (920) - Finally the welterweight division. Drew is the best value for CDM, going for 23/28/29. Cedeno is the next best value, especially in 5 X 5, going for 27/23/26. Some have Burrell penciled in for 40 HR's and he is listed at 20/21/20. Jenkins was a .300+ hitter in '99 and '00 and goes for 16/20/18. Finally, Kapler is a potential 5-cat performer but may be pressed for playing time and checks in at 13/22/8.

STARTING PITCHERS - Greg Maddux (1550) v. Curt Schilling (1540) - Hunt appears heavily on the Maddux bandwagon as Greg is listed at 35/26/32. Meanwhile Schilling goes for 29/28/34. Especially if playing 5 x 5, Schilling gets a slight edge.

STARTING PITCHERS - Tim Hudson (1170) v. Darryl Kile (1120) v. Javier Vazquez (1100) v. Bartolo Colon (1090) v. Barry Zito (1080) v. Mark Mulder (1080) - Patton is high on Vazquez, who is listed at 20/21/29. Meanwhile there is no clear winner in the battle of Oakland's big three. Mulder is listed at 24 across the board, while Hudson is at 24/25/26, finally Zito slightly higher at 24/27/27. Kile is a couple of steps behind the others at 13/14/18.

RELIEF PITCHERS - John Smoltz (1510) v. Armando Benitez (1480) v. Keith Foulke (1450) v. Billy Wagner (1370) - Foulke has the best values at 29/32/36. The other three are about dead even, Smoltz is at 26/25/25, Mando at 29/26/29, and Wagner checks in at 27/27/29. Consider Smoltz to have the best potential of the final three.


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NEXT PUJOLS AUDITIONS

If you're not familar with the names of Hank Blalock and Morgan Ensberg - bone up quick. Both rookies have won starting third base jobs hands down in Texas and Houston respectively. On a recent day, Blalock was picked up on 22,366 Yahoo teams while Ensberg was added on 18,837. Blalock has never played above AA, but hit .344 with 11 HR's in the Arizona Fall League. That was followed up by a torrid Spring which has seen Blalock's average flirting with .400. Speaking of .400, prospect-nicks have been tabbing Blalock as the "next George Brett". Fantasy owners picking him up on the waiver wire will gladly settle for a fraction of that. Hank is listed in CDM at 500.

Ensberg comes with not nearly the hype of Blalock, but the potential for this year is just the same. After hitting over .300 with 4 HR and 11 RBI in the first two weeks of the spring, the Astros traded away incumbent Chris Truby, handing the job to Blalock. Hitting in the park formerly known as Enron, Morgan should be a great value. Don't get squeamish at the fact that he is not listed among The Sporting News top 100 prospects, who knew about Pujols at this time last year??? As usual, it is mostly about opportunity. Be aware that Morgan is an unlisted 750 player in CDM.

Then there are the highly pubicized third base prospects, including San Diego's Sean Burroughs - listed in CDM at 520. Sean has the potential to flirt with .300 with about 15 HR's. However, Burroughs could fall somewhat under the weight of enormous expectations. It may also take a couple of years for Burroughs to develop in the power department. Then there's Yankee mega-prospect/bonus baby Drew Henson. With Robin Ventura struggling and now hurting, Drew will probably end up in the Bronx sooner than expected. Yet another highly touted third-base prospect, the White Sox's Joe Crede, was optioned to AAA this week. Also optioned was Cubs mega-prospect hurler Mark Prior, you can look for him in Wrigley sooner rather than later though.


OTHER DEVELOPMENTS

There are still red-lights and concerns over the shoulder of Pedro Martinez. P-Mart has been handled with kid gloves this spring and has been touched up a bit. Pedro will be a 5-6 inning pitcher at least in April, and will be only pitching every sixth or seventh day. My guess is Pedro eventually gets shut down and goes under the knife - just so you're not shocked when it happens. In other news, Ranger would-be closer Jeff Zimmermann has been DL'd with a bad elbow, with John Rocker taking his place. Just be sure to take your BP medication before putting Rock on your roster. In other closer news, Dodger closer candidate Matt Herges was shipped to Toronto, the best bet on Jim Tracy's dreaded committee is now Eric Gagne, who opened the spring with 15 scoreless innings. Gagne is listed as a starter in CDM for 500, a possible cha-ching there. Finally, Brewer would-be closer Chad Fox's elbow gave out (again), and is out at least for half the season. With Curtis Leskanic already sidelined, that makes Milwaukee's closer situation a complete mess. For the moment Mike DeJean is the best candidate there.

THE WEEK ONE SCHEDULE

Everyone in the National League opens with scheduled six-game weeks. In the AL, Oakland and Texas have seven-gamers while Boston and Kansas City play five. So expect only one six-inning outing out of P-Mart while Tim Hudson and either Barry Zito or Mark Mulder goes twice. Be aware though that Oakland opens with Texas and Seattle. The best pitching bet of the bunch is Randy Johnson, who has two guaranteed favorable indoor matchups - SD at home and MIL on the road. Other potential two-steppers include Bart Colon, Roger Clemens (or Mike Mussina), Mark Buehrle, Chan Ho Park, Jeff Weaver, Greg Maddux (two home starts), Al Leiter, Kerry Wood, Wade Miller, Matt Morris and possibly Curt Schilling and Kevin Brown. Be sure to check the pitching rotations over the weekend, along with east coast, midwest, and even west coast weather forcasts. Also Houston spends the entire week at home (MIL, STL) while Colorado is on the road before spending Week 2 at Coors.

Remember the season begins with a Sunday Night encounter (CLE @ ANH) - so check on entry/lineup deadlines. Since CDM's final deadline is 10 PM EST and the game starts at 8 PM, make sure that Colon doesn't retire the first 15 batters, striking out 10 - or that Erstad drives in five in his first two plate appearances, before leaving them out of this week's lineup. Hope everyone enjoys the season - 2430 box scores to come, bring it on. In the meantime be sure to check the KAC BASEBALL PAGE for the latest player developments.




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