KAC BASEBALL |
The KAC War Sheet pre-season positional preview now culminates with the trickiest and most volatile position, that of relief pitching. The worth of fantasy relievers is pretty cut and dried. The reliever either closes games and is of great value, or he bombs, gets moved to middle relief and is worth nothing. Outside of the top-tier, there is some amount of risk associated with closers, as they are seemingly only two or three bad outings away from being replaced. Currently there are only seven RP�s who have been the closer for their respective teams for three or more years. And having the right closer often is simply the roll of the dice, some get opportunities in close games seemingly every day, while others go days without a save opportunity, with his team often up 4+ runs when he finally sees action � a non-save situation. Closing games is an opportunity-driven specialty, and drives real-life and fantasy teams alike batty. Close a game then they�ve done their job, give up 4 ER in two-thirds of an inning and they sabotage a fantasy owners day.
Still, it is critical to grab enough closers on draft day, at most there are 25 solidified closers in MLB, along with a few others auditioning for the job. That is not enough to go around in most leagues. While teams are able to find a halfway decent outfielder or starting pitcher on the waiver wire in a pinch, most every relief pitcher with a pulse when it comes to saves are spoken for. That�s how Eddie Guadardo suddenly sounds appealing in the middle rounds of a draft.
Saves are by far the most important category when looking for relievers, although strikeouts per innings, along with ERA/WHIP should also be taken into consideration. Here is the rundown�
Mariano Rivera (NYY/1670/$37) � Remember when people thought the Yankees made a grave mistake in letting John Wetteland go??? That Rivera wouldn�t be able to handle the transition from set-up work to closing??? Mariano stepped it up yet another gear in �01, saving 50 games to go along with a 2.34/.90. Rivera even managed to improve on the strikeouts, whiffing 83 in 80 2/3 innings while walking only 12. Rivera is the one reliever who merits late-first round consideration.
Kazuhiro Sasaki (SEA/1620/$32) � Since a shaky start in 2000, Kaz has been solid, upping his save total from 37 to 45 last year. Also improved his ratio from 1.16 to .88. Although his strikeout total dropped from 82 to 65, the free passes dipped from 31 to just 11.
Keith Foulke (CWS/1450/$30) � Foulke has been nearly as solid as Kaz the past two years, saving 76 games to go along with a 2.97/1.00 and 2.33/.98. Is good for just under a strikeout an inning. Only downside is the White Sox are also high on Bobby Howry, and could consider trading Foulke before his salary gets too high. That could be bad if he were to go to a team planning to utilize him as a set-up man.
Trevor Hoffman (SD/1630/$34) � One of baseball�s all-time great closers, saving 258 games since 1996 with what has mostly been an average team, with a career 2.79 ERA and 1.04 ratio. Also 728 K�s in 641 2/3 career IP. ERA/WHIP did rise to 3.43/1.14 in �01, but still saved 43 games.
Rob Nen (SF/1590/$32) � Florida sure knew how to cultivate great relievers in the mid-90�s. Nen�s career has gone nearly step-for-step with TH51, saving 233 games over the past six seasons. 712 K�s in 641 career IP, along with a 3.07/1.22.
Armando Benitez (NYM/1480/$30) � One has to wonder if Mando is losing velocity, as he�s gone from 128 K�s in 78 innings in �99 to 93 K�s (in 76 IP) last year. The ERA/ratio also increased to 3.77/1.30, after seasons of 1.85/1.04 and 2.61/1.01. Mando was also on the trading block last year. On the plus side, Benitez does have 84 saves over the past two seasons.
Billy Wagner (HOU/1370/$28) � Came nearly all the way back from 2000�s elbow injury, saving 39 games to go along with a 2.73/1.02 and 79 K�s in 62 2/3 IP. The strikeouts were good, but not near the pre-injury 1999 totals of 124 in 74 2/3 IP. Wagner also had 39 saves that year along with a near-unhittable 1.57/.78.
John Smoltz (ATL/1510/$28) � Guess CDM was impressed by Smoltz�s late-season closer audition. Saved 10 of 11 late-season games while posting a 1.59 ERA during that span, prompting late-career Dennis Eckersley comparisons. Also started five games earlier in the season, so may qualify as a starter in some leagues. You think the Braves aren�t happy to have finally found a reliable closer???
Bob Wickman (CLE/1250/$27) � Speaking of the devil, Cleveland didn�t realize what they had with Wickman until they tried to supplant him with John Rocker. Four months later Rocker�s gone and the pudgy Wickman (he�s from Wisconsin � what do you expect???) signs a new three-year contract after saving 32 of 35 games along with a 2.39/1.11, and is also good for a strikeout an inning.
Troy Percival (ANH/1380/$28) � Cut down the free passes from 30 to 18 while posting 39 saves, in the process improving his ERA/ratio from 4.50/1.44 to 2.65/.99. Downside is Troy doesn�t pitch much more than 50 innings a year and may be trade bait this season.
Jason Isringhausen (STL/1280/$28) � Closing in the NL for the first time this season, Izzy saved 34 games for Oakland in �01 while improving from 1.43/3.78 to 1.08/2.65. Good for about a strikeout an inning.
Kyle Farnsworth (CHC/790/$8) � In a colossal development, Flash Gordon has been diagnosed with a �severe� shoulder injury and will be out a �significant amount of time�. Translated, Flash is probably out for the year and his career is in jeopardy. So the future comes at least a year early for this closer prospect with triple-digit heat. Struck out 102 in 78 innings mostly in a setup role in �01, along with a 2.74/1.15. Jeff Fassero will also be in the mix, but he will most likely be used as a situational left. Keep up with the Cubs closer situation for the rest of the spring, but for now make Farnsworth�s updated worth in the $20 range and consider him strongly for CDM.
Matt Anderson (DET/1160/$23) � Similar to Farnsworth, Anderson can make it into the 100 mph range, but strikes out only about a man an inning. Did take over the Tigers closer duties in mid-season and saved 22 games with a 4.82/1.32. Matt was drafted first overall in 1997, so the upside is obviously there.
Ugueth Urbina (BOS/1220/$23) � A nice undervalued value poised for a comeback. Still provides a nice strikeout-to-innings ratio, whiffing 89 in 66 2/3 innings between Montreal and Boston last year, along with a 3.65/1.23. With the Red Sox, he should be with a +.500 team, so there should be plenty of save opps.
Byun-Hyung Kim (AZ/1200/$24) � Kim�s well documented World Series meltdown was very familiar with those who owned BHK during the regular season, where he also displayed a penchant for giving up game-tying and losing home runs, but at other times looked downright dominant. The overall numbers were not bad, 19 saves in 23 opportunities along with a 2.94/1.04 and 113 strikeouts in 98 innings. If Kim struggles again, Brett Prinz and perhaps Matt Mantei (later in 2002) could become possibilities for the D-Backs.
Billy Koch (OAK/1280/$25) � Traded from Toronto to Oakland in the off-season. Struggled at times last year and finished at 4.80/137, but has saved 100 games in the past three years, including a career high 36 in 2001. Not a big strikeout artist, with 55 in 69 innings.
Jose Mesa (PHI/1420/$27) � Coming off a second career season, saving 42 games along with a 1.23/2.34. In 1995 he was baseball�s best closer, saving 46 games with a 1.12 ERA in a 144-game season. Between �95 and �01 there was lots of inconsistency with #�s near the 1.50/5.00 range. You will get saves with Jose, but it may be a bumpy ride at times.
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ROCKER SPENT THE OFF-SEASON PLAYING THE ROLE OF A PSYCHO (NOT A CLOSER) ON THE BIG SCREEN... |
Kelvim Escobar (TOR/$16) � Mentioned in more detail in the AL Starters article, Escobar is slated to be Toronto�s closer this year, as he was in 1997. Be careful though, as his arm was sore at the end of 2001 and is reported to be having problems with it again this spring.
Danny Graves (CIN/1250/$21) � There was off-season talk of Graves joining the Reds starting rotation (if the team signs Jeff Shaw), but it appears that Graves will for now remain the closer. Saved 32 games in �01 along with a 4.15/1.26 but only 49 K�s in 80 innings.
Chad Fox (MIL/670/$10) � Curtis Leskanic is coming off shoulder surgery, so Fox get an opportunity to open the season as a closer and could be a nice CDM bargain. Throws in the mid 90�s and struck out 80 in 66 2/3 innings in mostly a set-up role last year along with keeping his ERA under 2 (1.89). Fox himself is coming off elbow surgery in 2000, but then again name a Brewer hurler who hasn�t been cut on. For the record, save opps for any Milwaukee pitcher were few and far between last year.
Antonio Alfonseca (FLA/1230/$22) � You can have either 4 � fingers (Bob Wickman) or you can have �ol six fingers � or 24 digits in all. Saves plummeted from 45 in 2000 to 28 last year, but the #�s dropped from 4.24/1.51 to 3.06/1.35. Strikeouts is not his strength only whiffing 40 in 61 2/3 innings last year. AA is also coming off a herniated disc suffered late in the season, so is not one of the stronger closer options out there.
Scott Strickland (MON/960/$20) � Except for being an Expo, Strickland could have a lot to offer. Converted nine out of 11 save opportunities after taking over the closer role in mid-August, along with a 3.21/133. Also made nine out of twelve save opps in 2000. Also good for about a strikeout an inning.
Mike Williams (PIT/900/$16) � Saved 22 out of 25 games for a bad Pittsburgh team with a 3.67/1.44 in four months before being traded to Houston, where he was a setup man. Now back with the Pirates and will close this year. Actually a decent strikeout pitching, just under one an inning in �01.
Roberto Hernandez (KC/1290/$18) � Veteran closer as saved 294 games over the past ten years, including 28 last year and 43 as recently as 1999 with Tampa Bay. Finished �01 at 4.12/1.40 with 46 K�s in 67 2/3 IP.
Estaban Yan (TB/1090/$17) � After a very shaky first-half, Yan saved 14 games with a 2.88 ERA in the second half. Also struck out 64, while walking only 11 in 62 innings. If the D-Rays can win some games Yan should be a decent option.
Paul Quantrill (LA/700/$3) � Career journeyman had a career year with Toronto in �01, going 11-2 with a 3.04/1.18 ERA, along with 58 K�s in 83 innings in a setup role, and was the Jays representative at the All-Star game. Now with the Dodgers, PQ will battle Matt Herges for the closers role.
Willis Roberts (BAL/$15) � Eligible as both a starter and reliever, Willis went 3-2 with 6 saves and a 3.03 ERA in a late-season closing audition � although the O�s didn�t give him many opportunities in September. Roberts does have a mid-90�s heaters, so he could be adequate as a closer this year.
Eddie Guardado (MN/900/$15) � Took over as the Twins closer in August after LaTroy Hawkins imploded. Finished with 12 saves along with a 3.51/1.05, and 67 K�s in 66 2/3 IP, and should be the front-runner for bullpen stopper in �02.
Jose Jimenez (COL/1070/$14) � Battled shoulder problems for much of 2001, ended up with 17 saves along with a 4.09/1.42, not horrible numbers for a Rockie pitcher. Only consider if healthy, and then maybe only for road games.
Matt Herges (LA/760/$5) � Dodgers other closing candidate, was the Dodgers bullpen workhorse last year, logging 99 innings and going 9-8 with a 3.44/1.44 and 76 K�s.
Jeff Fassero (CHC/940/$6) � Could be back in the closing mix with Flash Gordon�s injury. Saved nine games in Gordon�s stead last year, and ended up with a 3.42/1.21 along with 79 K�s in 73 2/3 IP. At age 39, Fassero could close, but more likely end up as the situational lefty while Kyle Farnsworth works the ninth.
Felix Rodriguez (SF/890/$8) � Keep this man in mind in case Rob Nen ever goes down. Had a sensational 2001 with 91 K�s in 80 IP, along with a 1.68/.99 and a 9-1 record, all in relief.
Danys Baez (CLE/700/$4) � Expected to move into Cleveland�s starting rotation this year, Baez was sensational in 2001, striking out 52 in 50 innings along with a 2.50/1.07.
Jeff Shaw (FA/1330/$23) - Has decided to retire for the time being, but his name has now been brought up as a potential Cubs closer. 43 saves for LA last year, along with a 3.62/1.08.
STAY AWAY FROM
John Rocker (TX/1140/$13) � Did strike out 79 in 66 2/3 innings last year, and whiffed 104 in 72 innings in �99. Also has 85 saves over the past three years but at the expense of a 1.42 ratio. Rock should be setting up for Jeff Zimmermann this year, if anything draft him in the last round just for a laugh.
Curtis Leskanic (MIL/960/$10) � Curt was pitching with a torn roto-cuff last year and blew seven out of 24 saves. Still struck out 64 in 69 innings and had a 3.63/1.36. Chad Fox is the better closing option.