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2002 FANTASY BASEBALL PREVIEW - STARTING PITCHERS (NL)

Veteran group still leads the way in senior circuit...



Despite the explosion of NL offense in recent years, along with a couple of bandbox offenses, senior circuit pitchers remain the most attractive. But a changing of the guard may soon be in the works, with some of NL's elite hurlers moving up in age including Randy Johnson (38), Curt Schilling (35), Greg Maddux (36), Kevin Brown (37), Al Leiter (36), and Tom Glavine (36). But not to worry, there are also plenty of young guns who will be taking over the torch in the years to come. Here is the rundown..

Randy Johnson (AZ/1770/$38) - Baseball's #1 fantasy SP overall. The high strike zone resulted in increasing his strikeouts from 347 to a near record 372 in 249 2/3 IP. That was along with reducing his ratio from 1.12 to 1.01 and the ERA from 2.64 to a league leading 2.49, all this while posting a 21-6 record. RJ definitely appears to have at least 2-3 years left in the tank.

Curt Schilling (AZ/1540/$31) - The Big Schill was just a half-notch behind the Big Unit in '01, winning 22 while striking out 293 in 256 2/3 IP, along with a 2.98/1.08. Don't worry about Schill giving up a league-high 37 home run, for most of them were of the solo variety.

Kevin Brown (LA/1430/$27) - The biggest fantasy pitching question mark next to Pedro Martinez. If healthy, he is still definately among baseball's top five hurlers, coming off years of 3.00/1.07, 2.58/.99, and 2.65/1.14. Also averages about eight strikeouts per nine innings.

Greg Maddux (ATL/1550/$32) - Still an elite starter, in part due to his control, allowing only 27 free passes in 233 innings last year. Was 10-4 with a 2.41 ERA in the first half but only 7-6/3.82 afterwards. Still, the final #'s of 3.05/1.06 were nothing to sneeze at.

VAZQUEZ
JV WILL BE DEALING IN FRONT OF COUNTLESS DOZENS AGAIN IN '02...
Javier Vazquez (MTL/1100/$25) - Baseballs hottest pitcher from the All-Star break until Sept. 17, going 9-2 with a 1.60 ERA. JV finished with a 3.42/1.08 with 208 K's in 223 2/3 IP.

Kerry Wood (CHC/1050/$19) - Perhaps two years away from surplanting Unit and Pedro as baseball's most feared hurler. K-Wood K'd 217, but walked 92 in 174 IP in '01, to go along with a 3.36/1.26. Reducing the walks is the key to reaching the next level.

Matt Morris (STL/1190/$27) - The overall numbers were nothing short of an absolute breakthrough, 22 wins, 185 K's in 216 IP, and a 3.16/1.26. But the difference between home and road were like night and day. 15-2 with a 1.62 at home, 7-6 with a 5.15 on the road.

Al Leiter (NYM/1180/$19) � Just out of curiosity, what happens if one of Leiter�s kids is caught around Mets camp with a Yankee lid on (only because that�s the name of his Little League team)??? On a more critical matter, Al could had sued for non-support in winning 11 games last year, with a 3.41/120. More pressing was a drop in strikeouts from 200 to 142.

Roy Oswalt (HOU/830/$24) � Rookie totals were nothing short than spectacular, going 14-3 with a 2.73/1.06 plus just over one strikeout per inning. Opponents studying the book on him as well as the Houston bandbox could catch up with him, but that will be minimized if he can keep the K�s up. Will be second in the �Stros rotation, behind Wade Miller. Good CDM value.

Wade Miller (HOU/900/$19) � The other Astro hurler to breakout in �01, going 16-8 with a 3.40/1.22, along with 183 K's in 212 innings. Same concerns with Oswalt apply with Miller, but again the handicap of Enron is partially negated by the strikout ablility.

Darryl Kile (STL/1120/$21) - Reliable innings eater (227) who gets plenty of offensive support, to the tune of a 36-20 record in his two years with the Cards. Add a 3.09/1.29 from last year along with 179 K's and you have a steady solid performer.

Brad Penny (FLA/940/$16) - Penny gets a slight edge over Josh Beckett as the Marlins top SP prospect for this year just for being the known product on a positive curve. Improved from 4.81/1.50 in rookie year of 2000 to 3.69/1.16 last year. Also 154 K's in 205 innings to go along with a 10-10 record.

Josh Beckett (FLA/670/$16) - Or you can go with the huge upside potential of one of baseball's best prospects. A 1.50 ERA along with a 1.04 ratio in 24 late-season innings, with 24 K's. Also struck out 203 in 140 combined innings in A/AA ball. Only 21 so expect some inconsistancy.

John Lieber (CHC/1200/$21) - Benefitted from great offensive support to go 20-6 in 2001, along with a 3.80/1.15. Only punched out 148 in 232 innings but only walked 41. Expect a few less wins but steady performances.

Russ Ortiz (SF/1140/$20) - Control is usually Russ's bug-a-boo, but was able to cut down the free passes from 112 to 91, which resulted in a 3.29/1.27 along with 169 K's in 218 2/3 IP while winning 17. At age 27, this could be the year it all comes together.

Tom Glavine (ATL/1300/$18) - Let's say right out he's way overpriced for CDM. Not a strikeout guy (116 in 219 IP), and has been 3.69/1.35 over the past three years. On the plus side has won 51 times during that span with a potent Brave offense behind them.

Juan Cruz (CHC/490/$8) - Here is one of my picks to click, as this 21 year old has a heater that goes in the upper 90's. Struck out 137 in 121 innings in AA, but at the expense of a 4.01 ERA. His numbers with the big club were actually better with a 3.22/1.28, with K's in 44 2/3 IP. A good one to take a chance on.

Randy Wolf (PHI/800/$14) - Has shown steady improvement in his three years in ERA/ratio (5.55/1.59, 4.36/1.42, 3.70/1.23). Also is good for nearly a strikeout an inning. The fourth-year explosion is waiting to happen her.

Bud Smith (STL/680/$14) - Another nice potential bargain. Went 6-3 in 84 2/3 innings, with a nice 59/24 K to BB ratio along with a 3.83/1.22. Also was the author of a no-hitter v. SD. Only 22 years old.

Hideo Nomo (LA/870/$11) - Nice career year getting back to the Dodgers. Struck out 220 in 198 innings with Boston with a 4.50/1.35. Is untouchable in some outings (such as in his two career no-hitters), but gets shelled on other occasions, as evidenced by his 4.59/1.41 over the past three years.

Kazuhisa Ishii (LA/?????) - Speaking of Japanese imports, Ishii should follow in the tradition of Sasaki and Ichiro. The 28-year old was signed to a $25 million dollar contract and should be at least a #3 starter. Ishii had a 78-46 record with a 3.38 ERA in Japan and last year went 13-6 with a 3.40 ERA, striking out 173 in 175 innings.

Tony Armas Jr. (MTL/640/$11) - Another great late-round option in strikeout leagues, who struck out 176 in 196 2/3 innings in '01, along with a 4.03/1.38.

Ben Sheets (MIL/580/$10) - If you go by his 2001 first-half #'s (10-5 3.59), he has the potential to be worth more than his current value. Was shelled in late July and August before being shut down with a bum shoulder. What a shock - a Brewer with a bad wing. Struck out 94 in 151 innings and there is much room for improvement there, his stuff can be "electric".

Robert Person (PHI/930/$14) - Nice strikeout (183 in 208 innings) along with 15 wins. Dropped the BB/per 9 innings substansially and finished with 4.19/1.24.

Jason Schmidt (SF/710/$12) - Nice improvement from 5.40/1.77 to 4.07/1.32, along with 142 K's in 150 innings. Good later round pick for the K's.

Brandon Duckworth (PHI/600/$9) - 3-2 record with a 3.52/1.26 in 69 late-season innings - included were 40 strikeouts. A late bloomer at 26, Duck offers some possible upside for '02.

A.J. Burnett (FLA/670/$10) - Same price in CDM as Burnett, but not as much upside potential. 2001 highlight was a no-hitter v. the Padres (doesn't everyone). Dispite his bouts with wildness, he ended 4.05/1.32 with 128 K's in 173 innings.

Brian Lawrence (SD/480/$10) - Five wins and a save in 45 late-season innings, with 42 K's and a 3.80/1.31. Qualifies as both a starter (15 appearances) and a reliever (12), giving him flexibility on your roster.

Nick Neugebauer (MIL/400/$8) - Coming off off-season shoulder surgery, has a high-90's fastball but control is an issue. Not a bad flier for a last round pick though.

Mark Prior (CHC) - Keep in mind that Prior has yet to throw a professional pitch, but the college draft nicks say he is the most finished product ever to come out of the college ranks, and is ready for the bigs now. Still, expect the Cubs to keep him in AAA until he starts dominating, then he'll get the call to the show. If you wait until that point, will probably be already snatched up from the waiver wire.

Rick Ankiel (STL/750/$8) - Early returns on Rick in the Spring so far have not been good, do not count on his problems being over anytime soon, stay away for the time being.




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