
KAC BASEBALL |
Conventional wisdom has it that pitchers in the National League are more valuable than their American League counterparts when it comes to drafting for fantasy leagues where all of MLB is involved. For the most part that is still true, even though the NL has bandboxes in Colorado and Houston to contend with. Pitchers who do not have a legitimate ninth hitter to contend with still tend to be better off statistically. However, the AL now offers several fantasy stars on the mound who are valuable no matter what league they are in.
In general, selecting starting pitchers in fantasy baseball can be a tricky proposition. When it comes to choosing hitters, it is pretty clear-cut to identify players who are improving and are still on the young side of 30. Not to mention all the position players spending off-seasons in weight training and on a Bill Romonowski-like supplement regimen in hopes of turning from a spray hitter to 35-HR a year mashers. Pitching is different, as you will notice in your yearly draft research, the most reliable hurlers are the veterans. And stability is what you want, nothing ruins a day quite like picking up Steve Trachsel off the waiver wire only to see him get shelled for 7 ER in an inning and a third.
Yes, rookies and young hurlers emerge and become godsends to fantasy teams, as owners of Mark Buehrle and Roy Oswalt could attest to last year. And call-ups such as Brandon Duckworth and Juan Cruz provided nice quick waiver wire fixes throughout last season. History dictates though that things get a little tougher the second time around as opposing offenses learn the tendencies of their mound opponent. And then of course there are all the younger pitchers who tend to get sidetracked with arm problems.
There are some great young arms to watch along with the veterans in the AL which will be featured now. The next article will focus on the NL�
Pedro Martinez (BOS/1770/$35) � Fantasy baseball�s biggest question mark going into the season. If Pedro shows he�s 100 percent and has no setbacks in the exhibition season, he ranks as the #5 ranked player in 5 x 5 leagues behind Arod, Helton, Sosa, and Randy Johnson. Be prepared though for some 6-7 inning outings as opposed to 8-9, especially early on. That said, it is hard to argue against someone coming off ERA�s of 2.07/1.74/2.39 as well as rartios of .92/.74/.93, not to mention 12+ K�s per nine innings. If you can get him for 80-90 of the normal price, take the risk.
Mike Mussina (NYY/1380/$30) � Coming off one of his best seasons ever with a 3.15/1.07 with 214 K�s in 228 2/3 IP. Was good as anyone down the stretch with a 1.31 ERA and .79 ratio in his final 62 IP. Numbers would had been even better if not for two horrific outings at Florida (8 ER, 10 hits in 2 IP) and v. Texas (8 ER/4 IP).
Tim Hudson (OAK/1170/$28) � It is hard to rank Oakland�s emerging �big three�, since all three different attributes to the party. Hudson is the workhorse #1 starter who has won 38 games the last two years. Finished �01 pitching 235 innings with a 3.37/1.12 and a 181 K�s, but did seem to tire down the stretch. Still, a good pick, especially in the point-style world.
Mark Mulder (OAK/1080/$23) � Kind of the young, Greg Maddux control type. Won 21 games with a 3.45/1.16 and 153 K�s in 229 innings. Got better in the second half, going 12-1 with a 3.11 ERA.
Barry Zito (OAK/1080/$22) � Outside of maybe Javier Vazquez, may had been the hottest SP in the final two months, going 11-1 with an ERA well under 2. Barry�s strengths are an amazing array of knee-buckling off speed pitches, which amounted to just under one strikeout an inning. Can walk a few people on occasion. Only concern would be the breaking pitches stress on the arm, since Barry is still only 23.
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Bart aged by three years this offseason... |
Freddy Garcia (SEA/1110/$25) � Won 18, pitching 238 2/3 innings with an impressive 3.05/1.17 along with 163 K�s. A huge improvement over �99-00 when his numbers hovered around the 4.00/1.40 Was steady through the season and could become move overpowering at 6�4� 235 lbs. and still only 25 years old.
Mark Buehrle (CWS/1010/$19) � Huge second year coming out of nowhere, logging 221 innings with a 3.29/1.07, K�ing 188 and winning 16 games. There could be a slight dropoff this time around but should still be one of the better AL starters.
Roger Clemens (NYY/1240/$23) � At age 39, seems to be following Nolan Ryan�s blueprint of blowing hitters away well into their 40�s. Like Nolan in his later years, Clemens 3.51/1.26 was not overly impressive, but the 20 wins and 213 K�s were. Another 20 wins would give Rocket an even 300, don�t bet against it, especially with all the offensive support in New York.
Chan Ho Park (TX/1210/$23) � CHP�s value takes a hit this year as he moves to Texas, somewhat of a death sentence for pitcher�s. Park did win 15 along with 218 K�s in 234 IP along with a 3.50/1.17 in �01. But struggled in the second half with back problems and an ERA well over 4. Tread carefully here.
Kelvim Escobar (TOR/680/$16) � Kelvim gets thrown in here since he is expected to be Toronto�s closer in 2002, a bone for those who likes to take an extra reliever and throw him in a starting pitcher�s spot � where he still qualifies. Be aware though that he had numbness in his pitching arm at the end of last year.
Andy Pettitte (NYY/980/$19) - The talent level drops considerably here. Pitching virtually the same amount of innings as in 2000, Pettitte increased the strikeouts from 125 to 164 while the free passes was cut in half from 80 to 41. The end result was an improvement from 4.35/1.46 to 3.99/1.32. There isn't much more potential upside after that. Andy is what he is, a solid #3 Yankee starter.
John Burkett (BOS/960/$10) - Beats me how he left Atlanta for Boston. Was a near-spitting image of Greg Maddux, in the first half with a 2.49 ERA. Even the final numbers were more than respectable for the 37-year old with a 3.07/1.17 plus 187 K's in 219 innings pitched. Expect a slight dropoff this year.
C.C. Sabathia (CLE/680/$18) - CC is one pitcher, at just age 21, who does offer tremendous upside - finishing his rookie year at 17-5 with 171 K's in 180 IP, with a 4.39/1.35. Like most young pitchers, CC was often on the wild side, issuing 95 free passes. If that can be reduced, the ERA should go under 4 very soon.
Jamie Moyer (SEA/1090/$17) - Had a late career year in '01, winning 20 games while lowering his ERA/ratio from 5.49/1.47 to 3.43/1.10. Not a strikeout artist (119 in 209 2/3 IP) and will be hard pressed to approach last year's #'s at age 39.
Brad Radke (MN/1160/$19) - The first of Minnesota's own "big three", who saw his ratio go down from 1.39 to 1.15 in '01, along with a 3.94 ERA. 137 K's in 226 IP. Reliable performer who will give you 200+ innings.
Joe Mays (MN/970/$18) - Huge breakthrough year, improving from 5.56/1.62 to 3.16/1.15 while logging 233 2/3 IP and striking out while winning 17 games. At age 26, should be solid again if the arm can take the workload.
Eric Milton (MN/980/$17) - Also 26, Eric has logged three straight 200+ inning seasons. Won 15 in '01 with a 4.32/1.28 and 157 K's. The K's/ratio/and ERA has been very consistant during the three-year span.
Aaron Sele (SEA/1060/$16) - Another solid Mariner starter, winning 15 with a 3.60/1.24 in '01. Don't expect much with the strikots, which he gets about five per nine innings. Expect similar numbers being in a pitchers park.
Joel Piniero (SEA/530/$11) - Performed great in a second half call-up with a 3.62/1.31, with 64 K's in 77 IP and 6 wins. Also did some relief work (6 appearances) and recorded 3 saves - so he may be eligible as a RP. Not a bad cheap pitcher possibility even if he's only a #4 starter.
Cory Lidle (OAK/640/$15) - Was another great waiver-wire pickup for many teams in the second half last year, where he went 11-2 with a 2.96 ERA. Overall finished 3.59/1.15 with 118 K's in 188 innings. Another nice #4 pitcher to take a look at.
Willis Roberts (BAL/$15) - Eligible as either a starter of releiver (listed as a reliever at 1100 in CDM). Willis saved six games in a late-season trial and goes into Spring Training with the inside track to be Baltimore's closer.
Rick Reed (MN/920/$15) - Was traded to Minnesota at the deadline kicking and screaming, and went 4-6 with a 5.19 ERA, compared to 8-6 and 3.48 with the Mets. Not a recommended pick unless he goes back to the NL.
David Wells (NYY/780/$15) - Wells got his wish and is back with the Yankees. Did win 20 in 2000, along with a 4.11/1.29 with the Blue Jays, while issuing 31 free passes in 229 2/3 IP before succumbing to back problems last year. Has reportably lost weight (guess he's under 300 now!!!) but will still be hard pressed to match the 2000 totals at age 39.
Josh Towers (BAL/450/$7) - A good second-year pitcher to keep an eye on. The most impressive rookie stat was only walking 16 in 140 innings, along with a 5-1 June with a 1.49 ERA. AL hitters started to figure him out after that and he finished with a 2-7 6.45 stretch. The final numbers were still respectable at 4.49/1.29, and a good cheap pitcher to take a flier on late.
Kevin Appier (ANH/1010/$12) - Huge improvement from his 2000 Oakland #'s (4.52/1.55) to 2001 with the Mets (3.57/1.19). T key was reducing the free pases from 102 to 64. Appier is now back in the AL with the Angels, so expect a regression into the 4.00/1.30 range.
Jeff Weaver (DET/970/$12) - Steady improvement in fourth year hurler shown in wins (9/11/13), IP, (163/200/229), K's (114/136/152), ERA (5.55/4.32/4.08) and ratio (1.42/1.29/1.32). If the trend continues look for 15 wins, along with a 3.50/1.25 and a possible all-star berth.
Todd Ritchie (CWS/930/$12) - Moves over to the AL from Pittsburgh where he had a nice 4.47/1.27 in 207 IP. Also had a 3.49/1.29 in '99.
Dustin Hermanson (BOS/930/$9) - Another newcomer to the AL, people keep waiting for his career year. Did win 14 games with St. Louis, but at the expense of a 4.45/1.39. Is way too hittable way too often.