KAC 2004 FANTASY BASEBALL - AL STARTING PITCHER RANKINGS
STILL NO SEPARATING A'S 'BIG THREE'
Just as in real-life baseball, starting pitching is the most important aspect of your team. Although starting pitchers account for just 20 percent of your roster in most leagues, they can account to up to 40 percent of your statistics. Starting pitching is also the most volatile aspect of any fantasy team. Hitters will stay consistent for the most part. Some will be hot one day, while the others pick up the slack the next. Meanwhile, there is always the possibility of your starting pitcher giving up 7 earned runs in an inning and a third, which can take days or even weeks to recover from.
Traditionally, the AL selection of pitchers are not as attractive as the National Leaguers if only because of the presence of the DH. However the Red Sox/Yankees off-season arms race has brought the likes of Curt Schilling, Javier Vazquez, and Kevin Brown over to the American League. Add Oakland�s Big Three, Roy Halladay, and a super-sleeper in Johan Santana � and you have a pretty attractive group to mull over�
- Pedro Martinez (BOS � 1800) � Not unlike Tiger Woods in golf, one starts to sense some chinks in the Pedro armor, problems with durability, clashing with management, etc. But then there are the raw numbers, since 1999 Pedro has had a 2.09 ERA, a .90 ratio, and has averaged 11.62 strikeouts per nine innings. Even against the hated the Yankees, Perdo still has a 2.88 ERA and 1.05 ratio lifetime. The gap has narrowed, but Pedro�s still definitely #1 in the AL and #1 overall.
- Roy Halladay (TOR � 1350) � As the arms race escalated by the day between the BoSox and Yankees, it was the Jays who kept the biggest winner (41 in two years) the east in-house, wisely inking Halladay to a 4 year-$42 million contract. Most impressively, he won 22 games last year after being held winless in April and finished with a 3.25 ERA/1.07 ratio. Not as big a strikeout pitcher than some of the top pitchers, but one shudders to thinks how many he would win if he were ever in pinstripes. Halladay�s about as durable as they come. UPDATE: Early word out of Dundedin is that Halladay is working on adding a change-up to his arsenal this year.
- Curt Schilling (BOS � 1610) � Arod was supposed to end up with the Red Sox but wound up in New York, but Schilling initially wanted to go to the Yankees and wound up in Boston. Injuries cost Schilling a third of last season and was hampered by bad luck when active, finishing only 8-9 after going 45-13 the previous two seasons There was nothing wrong with the rest of Schill�s 2003 #�s, who had a 2.95 ERA, 1.05 ratio and an impressive 194 strikeouts in 168 IP.
- Javier Vazquez (NYY � 1280) � Don�t be surprised if Vazquez winds up making a bigger impact in New York than what Schilling will in Boston. JV lowered his ERA from 3.91 to 3.24 last year while his strikeouts increased from 179 to 241. On some nights JV is simply untouchable, and I expect more of those type of outings now that JV is in pinstripes.
- Tim Hudson (OAK � 1320) � Fantasy owners are inclined to play the rock, paper, scissors game when deciding on one of Oakland�s three aces. Right now, the Rock has to be Hudson on the strength of 2.70 ERA/1.07 ratio in 2003.
Hudson was downright untouchable in July and August, holding opposing batters with an average in the .170�s while sporting a 1.48 ERA along with an 8-1 record. Hudson also is the author of four shutouts in the last two years and is a workhorse with 103 starts over the past three years. Only downside is that Hudson only averages around six strikeouts per nine innings.
- Mark Mulder (OAK � 1200) � A hairline hip fracture cost Mulder the final quarter of the 2003 season, but despite that fact he leads Oakland pitchers in wins (55-24) since 2001. The fact that Mulder is a lefty also helps. There is a Spring Training concern regarding his back however.
- Barry Zito (OAK � 1250) � Was a mild disappointment with a 14-12 slate last year, following a 23-5 slate the year before. Despite that fact, there is not a huge cause for alarm as the problem was Zito allowing a .285 BA with runners in scoring position. Does not have an exceptional fastball (90 tops) but has the best curveball in the majors.
Johan Santana (MN � 1000) � So highly touted that he cannot really be termed a sleeper, as he has been on some radar screens for two years. Finally exploded as a starter in the second half last year, with a 5-0 slate in August with a 1.07 ERA and 44 strikeouts in 42 innings. The only concern is whether Johan can handle a 200+ inning workload.
- Mike Mussina (NYY � 1380) � Started last year on fire, winning his first seven decisions while striking out 63 in 53 IP. Is unhittable some nights, but is capable of being absolutely shelled on some others. What is consistent is that when the smoke clears, Mussina winds up with 17-18 wins to his credit.
- Kevin Brown (NYY � 1180) � Along with getting rid of a couple of 40 year-old pitchers in the off-season, the Yankees went out and got a 39-year old with KB, who had a great comeback season with the Dodgers posting a 14-9 record and a 2.39 ERA, with 185 K�s in 211 IP. Does not work deep into games, and injuries and age remain concerns, but Brown is as competitive as anyone and will be a welcome addition in the Bronx.
- Esteban Loaiza (CWS � 1020) � This came out of absolutely nowhere. After sporting a 5.72 ERA along with only 87 K�s in 152 IP, Loaiza gets a Spring invite from the White Sox, and goes on to win 21 games along with a 2.90 ERA and 207 K�s in 226 IP. Loaiza in all reality should be rated a few slots higher but most will not be convinced unless he produces similar numbers this year. The impressive strikeout total, the product of a newly learned cut-fastball, should quell some of those fears.
- Bartolo Colon (ANH � 1180) � Racked up 242 innings as his ERA rose to 3.87 before signing a 4-year, $51 million contract with the Angels. Colon has scored 14 wins every year since 1998, but has a pretty healthy 1.33 career ratio. Bart has one of the best fastballs in the game, so a career year is always a possibility.
- Joel Pineiro (SEA � 970) � ERA rose from 3.24 to 3.78 last year, but won a career high 16 games despite going 0-5 (8.31 ERA) in August. Pineiro�s got four pitches and a nice park to pitch in so he should be good to go.
- ??? Rich Harden (OAK � 670) � He�s only 22 and there is already concern about overuse, but you have to consider the upside at this point. Even though he got whacked around in his first four starts, Harden still struck out 67 in 74 2/3 MLB innings.
- Jarrod Washburn (ANH � 950) � Was money in the Angels championship run of �02, with an 18-6 record along with a 3.15/1.17, but experienced a bit of a World Series hangover (Josh Beckett will find out about that this year) last year going 10-15 with a 4.43 ERA. Put your expectations somewhere between �02 and �03 and hope for better.
- C.C Sabathia (CLE � 950) � Slowly turning into a legitimate ace, posting a 3.60 ERA while holding opposing batters to a .213 average in �03. Makes most �burnout candidate� lists but nothing has happened to the wing yet.
Freddy Garcia (SEA � 1020) � Was one of the AL�s top hurlers (3.06 ERA in �01) through the middle of 2002, but has been getting shelled ever since with a 4.51 ERA last year. Not a strikeout pitchers, which hurts his cause further in 5 x 5 leagues.
- Jamie Moyer (SEA � 1230) � Never mind Jesse Orosco, dude won 21 games with a 3.27 ERA at age 40!!! Can�t break a pane of glass but hitters can�t figure him out. Would rank him higher if not for the age, he�s due to DBU (�dar blown up) in the near future.
- ??? Jose Contreras (NYY � 800) � There�s potential for big-time upside, as 72 K�s in 71 IP will attest. 15-16 wins is possible, my only concern is at best he will be #4 in the pinstripes rotation.
- Derek Lowe (BOS � 1160) � That 2.59 ERA/.98 ratio from two years ago looks a bit like a mirage now, as that rose to 4.47/1.42 last year. The sinkerball specialist doesn�t fare fell in Minnesota or Toronto, and beware of Oakland and Baltimore, as the A�s and Miguel Tejada haven�t forgotten some of his antics after recording the final out of last year�s Division Series.
- Mark Buehrle (CWS � 1050) � 49 wins over the past three years and still considered the White Sox ace, but has been getting cuffed around the last year and a half. Doesn�t strike out a whole lot, so if he doesn�t improve he will be little more than a glorified Ben Sheets.
- Jeremy Affeldt (KC � 650) � Did I tell you the Royals have a left-hander who could be awesome if he gets the blisters taken care of (AFF � ELDT). There�s talk that they could even turn him into a closer if Mike MacDougal bombs out (AFF � ELDT). What�s his name again??? (AFF � ELLLDDDTTTT!!!!!). He could be good secondary insurance, find out more about him at work.
- ??? Sidney Ponson (BAL � 860) � Sid was supposedly not happy with O�s management, but wound up re-signing with the team through free agency nonetheless. Ponson was not even that impressive with the Giants and also has a history of elbow problems that have not been operated on yet, so he bodes as a somewhat risky pick.
- Mark Redman (OAK � 750) � Became a much better strikeout pitcher with the Marlins last year, whiffing 151 in 190 IP while posting a 14-9 slate with a 3.59 ERA. Will battle Rich Harden for the #4 spot in Oakland�s rotation.
- Ted Lilly (TOR � 730) � There�s some potential here, but was a mild disappointment (12-10, 4.33 ERA) in his first year as a full-time starter. Now with the Jays, Lilly finally goes into Spring assured of a spot in the rotation, expect better numbers.
- Kelvim Escobar (ANH � 980) � You have to like the strikeouts, 159 in 180 IP last year, which makes him perhaps the best possibility to post a �out-of-nowhere� Estaban Loaiza-type season. Should also due well pitching in Anaheim as opposed to SkyDome.
- Brad Radke (MN � 910) � You can forget about upside, but Radke has 15 win potential along with a decent ratio in the 1.20�s. Radke was 9-1, 3.24/1.15 after the All-Star break last year.
- Byun-Hyung Kim (BOS � 930) � He may no longer be a D-Back, but Kim still seems snakebit. Collects strikeouts and could be awesome at times, but I think he will remain maligned as long as he stays in Boston � and flipping off the Fenway faithful during last years playoffs won�t help. Reuniting with Curt Schilling may also help in terms of maturing, look for Kim to be a swingman as a #5 starter/long reliever, and is eligible in fantasy terms in both roles.
- Cliff Lee (CLE � 520) � Strikeout pitcher who could be a tremendous late-round value. Only pitched 52 innings last year due to a hernia, but struck out 44 with a 3.61 ERA. Definite sleeper potential.
- Ryan Franklin (SEA � 800) � Stinks in strikeouts, but could had sued for non-support last year with a 11-13 record despite a 3.59 ERA. You really couldn�t go wrong with any Mariner starter at this point. More valuable in 4 x 4 leagues.
- Gil Meche (SEA � 680) � Coming off a long history of arm problems, Meche actually was getting All-Star consideration before fading with a 6.08 ERA in the second half, but still wound up with a nice 15-13 record.
- Tim Wakefield (BOS � 1010) � Deserves to mentioned as an athlete in the same vane as a Senior Tour golfer or a pro bowler (that�s PBA not NFL). Pot-bellied 40-something�s in the fifth row look like they can take the bump and throw harder, and perhaps they could. But Wakey�s knuckler is downright baffling, posting 169 K�s in 202 IP last year along with a decent 4.09 ERA. Look for wins and K�s here.
- Miguel Batista (TOR � 850) � Longtime D-Back signs a 3 year-$13 million contract with the Jays and is penciled in as a #2 starter. Gets some strikeouts and had a nice 3.54 ERA last year. Beware when he faces division rival Tampa Bay however, Batista and Tino Martinez have a history.
- Darrell May (KC � 800) � Even though Royals Stadium ranked as one of the best hitter parks in baseball last year, May still racked up 14 wins along with a fine 3.77 ERA/1.19 ratio. With the fences moved back to Amos Otis dimensions this year, those numbers could be better this year. Not a strikeout pitchers, so move him a few notches higher in 4 x 4 leagues.
- Kurt Ainsworth (BAL � 470) � Orioles wisely traded for the one-time US Olympian (none of those this year) in the Sidney Ponson deal. By the time the season ends he could be more highly touted than Sid. A broken shoulder blade cut short last season but Ainsworth was still good for 52 K�s in 68 IP. Excellent sleeper potential, move him up a few notches if he looks good in the Spring.
- Damian Moss (TB - 590) - Talk about falling off the face of the earth!!! It seemed that Moss would be a good fit with the Giants, but then was traded to Baltimore then not offered a contract in the off-season, having to resort to signing with Tampa Bay. Even though Moss had a horrific 5.16 ERA/1.67 ratio last year, Moss was 3.42/1.28 as recently as 2002. A good sign is that Moss has lost 35 pounds during the winter.
- Pat Hentgen (TOR - 560) - Returns to the scene of previous crimes, spending nine years with the Jays and winning a Cy Young. Bounced back from two injury plagued years to win 13 games last year, including a fine 3.10 ERA (6-3 record) in the second half.
- Jason Davis (CLE - 560) - Throws in the mid-90's, the strikeout total just does not show it at this point, so there is upside potential. There is also talk of Davis adding a cut-fastball.
- Grant Balfour (MN) - Not to be confused with the NHL goaltender, Grant will find himself somewhere on the Twins pitching staff, it just isn't known whether that will be as a starter or reliever. Balfour recorded 87 K's in 71 innings in AAA (2.41/.90) before getting the call up. Could be in the rotation or perhaps a Johan Santana-like fill in, but needs to be remembered just for the K's.
- Zack Greinke (KC) - One of the more hyped prospects out there, Greinke is 15-4 with a 2.10 ERA in his past two minor league seasons. Working against him is that he's only 20 and is not an overpowering pitcher. Look for Greinke to open the season in AAA and get a callup sooner rather than later. Worth stashing him with a late pick if you have the bench room.
