KAC 2004 FANTASY BASEBALL - AL OUTFIELD RANKINGS
BALANCE SHIFT GOES OVER TO JUNIOR CIRCUIT
In last year�s outfield preview, I noted on how virtually all the heavyweights were residing in the National League. Not this time around. Carlos Beltran is making a serious push at being the #1, Vladimir Guerrero and Gary Sheffield has both switched sides, and Carl Crawford and Vernon Wells have made themselves known as two of the games truly rising superstars. Throw in Ichrio, Manny Ramirez and Magglio Ordonez into the mix, and easily eight of the top dozen, and in some previews eight of the top ten now reside in the Junior circuit.
- Carlos Beltran (KC � 1760) � Some actually feel Beltran should even be ranked ahead of Albert Pujols, due to his stolen base ability. I wouldn�t go that far as Pujols is simply too much a monster in the other four categories. Still, Beltran should be a lock for 100 runs, 100 RBI, 30 HR, and a .300 avg to go along with his 30-40 stolen bases, making him the best five category player available. It is Beltran�s contract year however, so if the Royals stumble and fall out of contention he could get dealt close to July 31.
- Vladimir Guerrero (ANH � 1750) � Yet another elite player changing addresses, playing in a major media market should be a boon after years of obscurity in Montreal. His balky back is a red flag, and anything more than 20 steals would be gravy, as opposed to 40 back in 2001. However, Vlad will be playing no more games on the hard turf which should be a huge plus. Vlad could even be a Triple Crown candidate, remember he hit .330 and .336 before �slumping� to .307 last year.
- Manny Ramirez (BOS � 1420) � Look past the fact that Ramirez was actually placed on waivers in the off-season, that he slumped to 104 RBI last year, or that he doesn�t have the best attitude in the world. Manny can flat out rake like no one else in baseball. Remember that prior to last year Ramirez drove in 232 RBI in 262 previous Red Sox games and also hit .349 back in 2002. 125-130 RBI should be a lock.
Gary Sheffield (NYY � 1600) � As with Vlad, there may be an adjustment period with Sheffield, who is making his first foray in the American League since 1991. But providing protection behind the likes of Arod, Derek Jeter, and Jason Giambi cannot possibly hurt his numbers, which included 126 runs and 132 RBI last year. Sheffield even pitched in 18 SB�s last year, one of the highest totals of his career. Also just for an FYI, Sheffield�s name is involved in the current BALCO case. UPDATE: Sheffied sustained a thumb injury early in the exhibition season and is projected to be out 2-3 months.
- Magglio Ordonez (CWS � 1680) � Does not steal nearly as much as a few years ago, but the rest of his game is solid, hitting over .300 in each of the past five seasons. Uncharacteristically only drove in 99 runs last year, but raked in 135 in 2002 � just split the difference and you have 117.
- Vernon Wells (TOR � 1150) � Since the middle of 2002, Wells has taken a back seat to no one, and was a premiere four-category player last year hitting .317 with 118 runs, 117 RBI and 33 HR. Still very much a bargain in CDM, where he is a no-brain selection.
Carl Crawford (TB � 1040) � Only 22 years old and far from a finished product, but his stolen base ability puts him very high on this list. Was a .300 hitter after the All-Star break last year, stealing 33 bases in the final 66 games. If he learns to take more walks (only 26 BB last year) 75-80 SB�s this year is definitely possible.
- Aubrey Huff (TB � 1250) � Was solid all year, and really stepped it up in the second half, hitting .320 with 17 HR and 57 RBI in his final 70 games. Eligibility at first base further enhances his value.
- 9. Garrett Anderson (ANH � 1660) � Winning Home Run Derby at the All-Star game gave Garrett some long overdue publicity. Since 1997, Garrett has racked up 189, 183, 188, 185, 194, 195, and finally 201 hits � which tells you that he�s in the lineup every day and is very consistent. Since 200, Anderson has averaged 30 HR and 120 RBI. About as safe a pick there is.
- Ichiro Suzuki (SEA � 1560) � You won�t see .350 with 56 steals again, as Ichiro did in 2001. You can pencil him in however for .300+ with 100+ runs and 30 steals. Has faded in the second-half in each of the past two seasons.
- Carlos Lee (CWS � 1320) � Had a tremendous five-category season, finishing .291/100/31/113/18. His stolen bases are tough to gauge however, Lee stole 13 in 2000 followed by 17 the following year, but stole only one base in 140 games in 2002.
- Juan Gonzalez (KC � 720) � If you could guarantee me that Juan would play in at least 150 games, he would even go up a few notches higher. In just 82 games last year Juan cranked 24 HR�s along with 70 RBI, and drove in 140 runs in as many games with Cleveland in 2001. Still you have to factor moving into a less favorable hitters park into consideration, along with the fact that Juan has only averaged playing in 102 games per year since 2000.
- Rocco Baldelli (TB � 870) � The final peg in what is perhaps the most promising young outfield in all of baseball down in Tampa. The similarities may begin and end with Italian heritage, but many old-school fans liken Baldelli to a young Joe Dimaggio. It does appear that Rocco is a pure ball player, blessed with tremendous base-running skills. Rocco�s rookie campaign ended with him hitting .289 with 89 runs, 11 HR and 78 RBI along will 27 stolen bases. Baldelli appears to be on the fast track to being a five-category star.
- Johnny Damon (BOS � 1440) � Has averaged 180 hits over the past six years (including 214 knocks in 2000), which puts him on pace to collect #3,000 at the end of the Mayan Calendar. However his BA has fallen in recent years, although he�s still good for a .280 average, 30 steals, and well over 100 runs. Has some power, but has never hit 20 bombs in a year.
- Trot Nixon (BOS � 1020) � One of those players who insists on not cleaning his pine tar-layered helmet over the course of a season, Nixon has settled into the range of 25 HR/90 RBI over the past three seasons. Hit .306 last year, but is still platooned often as he hits only .219 v. lefties. A good pick for leagues that allow daily transactions, where you can stick him against the righties.
- Jose Guillen (ANH � 650) � Injuries to the Reds outfield gave Guillen a chance to play every day early last year, and he took full advantage hitting .337/23/63 in 91 games before being dealt to the A�s at the trade deadline, where he fell somewhat to .265/8/23 in the final 45 contests. Along with Vlad Guerrero and Garrett Anderson, Guillen will complete one of the AL�s best hitting outfields and should deliver 25-30 HR�s this year.
- Hideki Matsui (NYY � 880) � Godzilla seemed to play much like Bambi for much of his maiden American season, but the final numbers were actually pretty good, as The Mole hit .287 while driving in 106 runs, but the 16 home runs were a disappointment considering he hit 50 in his final Japanese League season. Upside for this season is tempered mainly because he is projected to hit eighth in the Yankee lineup mainly because somebody has to.
- Torii Hunter (MN � 1160) � Has established a nice baseline of around 25 HR, 100 RBI over the past three seasons, but huge declines last year in BA (.289 to .250) as well as steals (23 to 6) made him a bust to most who drafted him. The good news is that his nightly highlight reel catches will always keep him in the lineup. We�d gladly settle for .275 and 15 steals along with the power numbers.
- Milton Bradley (CLE � 850) � Hit .321 with 17 stolen bases last year, showing definite 5-category potential. The big questions will be being able to stay healthy and to stay away from trouble. Getting into a donnybrook with Senior umpire Bruce Froemming is never a good idea.
- Jay Gibbons (BAL � 800) � Is slated to be the O�s starting first basemen this year, so you should gain additional eligibility there. Made huge strides across the board last year, hitting .277 with 23 HR�s and an even 100 RBI. However, I am not convinced that Gibbons might slump back under the .250 level � I do not see tremendous upside here.
- Alex Sanchez (DET � 920) � Was a tremendous waiver wire pick-up for many last year that were in need of steals, that doesn�t exactly make him worth a $20+ price tag this time around. Don�t get me wrong, if you could guarantee me that Alex would steal 50+ bases again he would be worthy of top-ten consideration on this list. I wouldn�t even consider Alex as a bad CDM option at his current price. Truth however is that Alex is still one of the more undisciplined players around, and is a candidate to wind up in the doghouse, and/or a deep slump at the drop of a dime. Sanchez is a definite trip to the craps table, if you don�t want to go that route then grab the likes of Carl Crawford or Juan Pierre � or go in a different direction and scour the waiver wire if need of steals.
- Bernie Williams (BAL � 1090) � A Yankee fixture entering his 14th season, Bernie has fallen drastically across the board over the past couple of seasons, only hitting .263 last year (.305 lifetime average) along with 15 HR and only 64 RBI, a drop from 102 the previous year. The plan this year is for Kenny Lofton to become the starting center fielder, with Bernie becoming the primary DH.
- Randy Winn (SEA � 1280) � Becoming a nice five category player, who will be good for nearly 100 runs, along with 20+ steals, 10-15 HR, and a near .300 average. There�s not a lot of upside left but he�s a nice conservative pick.
- Jacque Jones (MN � 1120) � Didn�t slump in batting average quite like teammate Torii Hunter, but fell drastically in the power categories, hitting only 16 HR and 69 RBI after 27/85 the previous season. Look for the Twins to try to deal Jones, and perhaps lose playing time to Michael Cuddyer in the interim.
- Kenny Lofton (NYY � 1230) � Thought to be finished a couple years back, Lofton racked up a 26-game hitting streak while hitting .296 and even stealing 30 bases. Penciled in as the Yankees starting center fielder, expect a lot of runs scored, but perhaps not the need to steal with a powerful lineup behind him.
- Melvin Mora (BAL � 740) � Mostly noted as a utility man over his career, Mora was hitting .349 along with 13 HR and 45 RBI at the All-Star break last year, but would soon be derailed by injuries. Is slated to be the O�s starting third basemen this year, so he should gain eligibility there.
- Jose Cruz (TB � 1010) � A member of the 30/30 club as recently as 2001, Cruz has stole only 12 bases along with seasons of 18 and 20 HR�s since. Furthermore his BA has dropped onto the dark side of .250. He is the D-Rays starting right fielder though in a favorable hitters park, and manager Lou Pinella lets his troops steal.
- Darin Erstad (ANH � 770) � Has really fallen off in the power department, hitting only 23 HR�s in the past three seasons, and missed half of last season with a hamstring problem. Could still be good for 20+ steals, but that may tail off with his injury problems.
- Luis Matos (BAL � 560) � After several cups of coffee (including stealing four bases in a game in 2000), Matos came up for good last year, hitting .303 with 13 HR and 15 stolen bases in four months worth of work. The batting average will probably fall off, but the speed/power combo is intriguing.
- Shannon Stewart (MN � 1260) � What the hell happened??? Stewart once stole 51 bases in a season, but since then that total has decreased to 37, 20, 27, 14, and finally just four steals in 136 games last year. Stewart is still a solid hitter though, and his hit .300 in each of the last five years, scoring over 100 runs in four of those seasons.
- Raul Ibanez (SEA � 1000) � Also eligible at first base, Ibanez has hit .294 the past two years along with 95 runs last year and 103 and 90 RBI over the past two seasons. However Raul is moving from one of the majors best hitting parks to one of the worst, so definitely do not bid high.
- Tim Salmon (ANH � 870) � Starting his 12th full season, all with the Angels � Salmon is starting to get slowed by injuries, and is penciled in as the primary DH this year. Look for about 80 runs, 20 homers, 80 RBI and about a .280 average.
- Jody Gerut (CLE � 600) � After hitting 22 HR and 75 RBI in 127 games last year, Gerut probably deserves to be about ten spots higher. However, there are some red flags. First, Jody never hit more than 11 HR�s in any minor league season. Also Gerut admitted in the off-season that he has a torn rotator cuff that may need to be addressed.
- Bobby Kielty (OAK � 580) � Gets his first chance at a full-time job this year in Oakland. Kielty hit 12 HR and 46 RBI in just 289 AB�s with Minnesota a couple years back, so there is some real 20 HR potential this year.
- Jermaine Dye (OAK � 710) � Fell off the edge of the earth in Mike Davis fashion last year, only hitting .172 in 221 AB�s, and appears to be not nearly the player he was before breaking his leg in the 2001 AL playoffs. Hit 18 HR�s along with 53 RBI as recently as after the All-Star Break in 2002, so comeback player of the year possibilities exist.
