KAC 2005 FANTASY BASEBALL - AL OUTFIELD RANKINGS


POWER V. SPEED V. AVERAGE - THE CHOICE IS YOURS



It�s always fun to find those key infielders that can make a difference, but now we break out the heavy artillery with the outfielders � a field so deep that I divide into two sections, the AL followed by the NL. The only question will be which categories to focus on, power, speed, average, or any combination thereof.

You won�t be seeing any advertisements featuring Hammerin� Helen�s bubble gum card in this preview � could you imagine being in a league with her?? She�s winning your league by about 15 points at the All-Star break, but suddenly she quits making any moves. Barry Bonds (DL�d) and Milton Bradley (serving a 100 game suspension for assaulting a heckling fan in Milwaukee in a game the Dodgers were winning 15-3) are still in her lineup as the lead dwindles. Yep, Ol� Helen couldn�t make it the distance; I would never want to win a league in that fashion.


  1. Vladimir Guerrero (ANG) � OK, he doesn�t steal as many bases � only 15 last year as opposed to 35-40 a few years back. Well, that�s the only negative. Vlad has hit over .330 the past three seasons and is annually good for 40 HR/120 RBI. Freed from Montreal purgatory, Vlad also shattered his career high with 124 runs scored in his first year in the American League. There was a concern over an injured thumb during a Winter League game on December 26th, but early reports out of spring camp are encouraging. Don�t drop Vlad off the top of your list.


  2. Manny Ramirez (BOS) � ManRam simply rakes like no other, once driving in 310 runs over a two year period, as well as flirting with a .350 average a couple of years. Manny�s OPS has also been over 1.000 in each of the last six years along with with nine consecutive 30+ home run seasons. It was blind luck that no one claimed Manny when the Red Sox placed him on waivers a year ago, would Boston had ended up World Champions otherwise??? Look past the occasional comical defensive lapse and take Manny for his offensive heroics.


  3. Ichiro Suzuki (SEA) � Why it didn�t get the ink of the home run exploits of Barry Bonds and Mark McGwire, I�ll never know. Ichiro wiped out a 84-year old record recording an astounding 262 base hits in 2004. In four years Ichiro has averaged 231 hits per year. At that pace Ichiro would reach 3,000 MLB hits in just 13 years, he would still only be 39 so it is possible. Perhaps a run at .400 would rivet the baseball world, considering Ichiro hit .429 from the All-Star Break on it is possible. The only shame was that Ichiro only scored 101 times � with Adrian Beltre and Richie Sexson onboard that total should easily improve to 125-130 even if the BA slips a little. Ichiro won�t hope you much in the HR/RBI departments, but 30+ steals are a lock and the massive # of AB�s (704 last year) guarantees you a finish near the top in the batting average category.


  4. Carl Crawford (TB) � A member of my SEGA baseball team, opposing cyber-hecklers have a good line when he comes up to bat, �CARL, YOU SHOULD HAVE STUCK TO FOOTBALL!!!� Actually, that was a good career move � Nebraska wanted him to be an option QB and would had been looking for somewhere to transfer after Bill Callahan came onboard. Besides, where would we be looking for then as far as stolen bases are concerned??? Crawford has stolen 55 and 59 bases over the last two years, a Tim Raines-esque 80 is not out of the question in the near future, as his game is still developing. Crawford flirted with .300 last year and is even getting some power, hitting 11 HR.


  5. Gary Sheffield (NYY) � One of my all-time favorite players, if only for telling Brewer and Padre management to go to hell early on in his career. It was a surprise that he lasted through all of 2004 with a bum shoulder, still hitting .290 with 36 HR/121 RBI. Stolen bases are no longer a factor, but his insane bat speed in the middle of the Yankee lineup still sounds good to any fantasy squad.


  6. Hideki Matsui (NYY) � Headlines were made all over Japan when Matsui was relegated to pinch-hitting duty for not just one, but two games in 2004 � SLACKER!!!! Seriously, Godzilla has played in over 1,600 consecutive games over the last decade so you can count on him being in the lineup. Was much more comfortable the second time around in New York, improving from 16 to 31 HR while flirting with .300 as well as hitting triple figures in both runs and RBI. Nice, quiet, low-stress production.


  7. Garret Anderson (ANG) �Has annually hit over .300, along with flirting with 30 RBI and well over 100 RBI on an annual basis. However health is suddenly a question mark, Anderson has been diagnosed with arthritis in his back, neck, and shoulders, so production may fall off in the future. For that reason, I would wait on taking Garret until some of the other big boys are off the board.


  8. Johnny Damon (BOS) � Along with Tedy Bruschi the very face and essence of New England sports these days. Like a trip to the buffet table, Damon gets you a little bit of everything. .300 batting average � check, tons of runs (123 last year) � check, 20 home runs/20 steals, check-check, 90+ RBI, check. The trend is Johnny picking up more power while stealing less, still a quality play.


  9. Magglio Ordonez (DET) � Here�s another big question mark. Magglio isn�t coming off a typical injury, he was shelled last year with something called �bone marrow edema� in his knee � a condition similar to what occurred in Bo Jackson�s hip. Another negative is moving out of the South Side of Chicago to spacious Detroit. Still, Magglio went /320/116/38/135 as recently as 2002, so he can�t be even close to dismissed. Be aware though that his stolen base production will be zero.


  10. Scott Podsednik (CWS) � Well, you can�t knock 70 stolen bases, but we now know why Scotty Po was stuck in the minors so long, hitting only .244. The good news is Podsednik will no longer have Kerry Wood, Mark Prior, Carlos Zambrano, Roger Clemens, Roy Oswalt, Mark Mulder, Oliver Perez, or Matt Morris in his division � instead getting Johan Santana and the rest of the pitching weak AL Central. That alone should improve the BA 20 points, just don�t expect 70 steals ever again.


  11. Vernon Wells (TOR) � Who is this player??? He raises eyebrows showing up at camp noticeably lighter, and goes on to post sub-par numbers in an injury riddled year. Jason Giambi??? No, Vernon Wells. Hurting matters even more this year will be the lack of production due to Carlos Delgado no longer being in town. I�d like to say Vern can return to .300/30/100, but that would be a stretch.


  12. Aubrey Huff (TB) � Hey, somebody has to drive Carl Crawford in, so it might as well be Aubrey. Look for 30 HR/100 RBI while also qualifying at first and third.


  13. Sammy Sosa (BAL) � Everyone talks about Sammy like he�s a bum these days, but he still hit 35 HR last year. Of course maybe he did it with corked biceps and bats, but what�s it to you??? Sammy does join a nice offensive lineup and can be DH�d at times, so he�s probably not a bad play. But batting average is falling badly and I still have a suspicion that he is older than his program age of 36.


  14. Torii Hunter (MN) � Maybe not quite what he was he was a few years ago, but is always good for around 25 HR and last year and has had a couple of 20 SB years sandwiched around a year with only six steals. Batting average an issue but all in all decent across the board.


  15. Trot Nixon (BOS) � Potential steal in salary cap games, Trot missed most of the 2004 season but when healthy is very capable of .300/25/90, plus you almost have to like anyone in the Red Sox lineup.


  16. Richard Hidalgo (TX) � He�s been pretty much over the map in his career, but I think the move to Texas will hearken back to his glory days with the Astros back in 2000 (.314/118/44/122), for that reason I give him a high ranking this year, he�s worth the risk in this lineup and that ballpark.


  17. Jacque Jones (MN) � Pretty much in line with teammate Torii Hunter, although Jacque doesn�t steal as much. Slumped to .254 last year but remember he had a pair of .300 seasons prior to that.


  18. Aaron Rowand (CWS) � You think Rowand is going to see many �get me over� first pitches??? In 2004, Rowand put the first pitch in play 82 times, recording base hits on 41 of those occasions. I think American League pitchers will have that filed away in their high-tech databases. With that in mind, I think Rowand will be hard pressed to duplicate his .310 batting average. But be award that Rowand had 24 HR plus 17 stolen bases, so he could still help you in all five categories.


  19. Randy Winn (SEA) � Has never hit more than 14 HR in any season, but gets about 20 steals while flirting with .300. Ballpark hurts but he�s in a decent lineup this year.


  20. Chone Figgins (ANG) � Mostly noted for his speed, Figgins will do better for you at second or third � where he is also eligible.


  21. Bernie Williams (NYY) � Now 36 and a couple of notches of what he was a few years back. That said, Bernie was still good for 22 HR and 105 runs scored last year. Throw out an injury plaged 2003 and Bernie has gone over 100 runs in eight straight seasons.


  22. Coco Crisp (CLE) � Improved from three to 15 homers in 2004 and also improved in stolen bases from 15 to 20 while flirting with .300. Coco Crisp, it�s not just for breakfast anymore.


  23. Kevin Mench (TX) � Has slowly turned into a regular with the Rangers, hitting 26 home runs in 125 games while hitting a more than respectable .279. Despite a sluggers build, Mench doesn�t strike out often. Should be a nice sleeper with 30 home run potential, just don�t get big-headed about it.


  24. Steve Finley (ANG) � Beware that he is now 40, but Finley keeps himself in incredible shape. Hit a whopping 36 home runs last year, although I would expect more in the 20-25 home run range, although RBI totals should be plentiful in Anaheim. Even still steals an occasional base.


  25. Eric Byrnes (OAK) � One hot rumor this spring has Byrnes going to the Pirates, which unless you�re in an AL only league shouldn�t have much impact. Byrnes was a sabermaticians dream last year hitting 20 homers, stealing 17 bases while scoring 91 runs. Should help in most categories.


  26. Alex Sanchez (DET) � The stolen base potential will always keep Alex on the fantasy radar, but that doesn�t necessarily mean he�ll be on mine. Sure he hit .322 last year, but I�ll be surprised if he even has that as an on-base percentage this year since he hardly walks. Not to mention how often Alex gets himself picked off even when he does reach base. Deal me out, let someone else reach for him.


  27. Lew Ford (MN) � Kind of like the Twins hitting version of Johan Santana, what in the world is he going to need to do to stick in the lineup once and for all??? Hit .300 with 15 HR, 20 steals, and 89 runs last year, but is still listed as a fourth outfielder/DH. I suspect the Twins sooner or later will realize that he is a better option than Shannon Stewart.


  28. Mark Kotsay (OAK) � Not too much different than teammate Eric Byrnes, except he hit .314 last year and doesn�t steal as many bases. Hitting leadoff, you would expect more than the 78 runs scored last year.


  29. Jermaine Dye (CWS) � Hasn�t been the same since breaking his leg in a freak incident during the 2001 playoffs, but still has decent power numbers, 23 HR/80 RBI last year. That could even improve some moving to Chicago.


  30. Raul Ibanez (SEA) � Three straight years of .294 or higher proves he�s legit, and should improve in the RBI department this year. Not a lot of upside but a safe pick.


  31. Jeremy Reed (SEA) � We now tap into the 2005 rookie class. Reed was considered the #1 prospect in the White Sox organization before coming over in the Freddy Garcia trade. Reed hit well over .300 as a minor leaguer and struck out less than 10 percent of the time. Will probably never hit more than 15-20 home runs but can easily steal 20-25 bases. Look for Reed to take residence in Safeco Field�s outfield starting this year.


  32. Craig Monroe (DET) � Posted very respectable numbers last year, hitting .293 last year while hitting in the 20 HR neighborhood in his last two campaigns. But is best known was being arrested in a bizarre shoplifting incident (BEEP, BEEP, BEEP!!!!!) involving a $30 belt. Monroe comes into the spring fighting for playing time in the Detroit outfield.


  33. Jay Gibbons (BAL) � Your traditional, prototypical Oriole with lots of power (100 RBI in 2003) but just about zero speed. Throw out 2003�s .277 average, and Gibbons has found hitting .250 a challenge. Gibbons blamed some of his problems on his eyesight, and underwent vision correction during the off-season.


  34. Shannon Stewart (MN) � Plantar fascitis has stolen nearly all of Stewart�s once considerable stolen base ability. What you may not know is Stewart has hit .300+ in each of his last six seasons and has developed decent power, 15-20 homers very possible when healthy.


  35. Larry Bigbie (BAL) � Wendy�s has a definite advertising ploy on there hands here. Order a Classic Double, and get a Bigbie fries and a Bigbie drink at a discounted price. Is developing into a 20 home-run threat who also has nice speed, but doesn�t look to steal much.


  36. David DeJesus (KC) � Now trying to fill the massive shoes of Carlos Beltran in center field, DeJesus got 96 games under his belt last year hitting a more than respectable .287 � but has not developed a lot of power and only occasionally steals. Be warned of an extensive injury history in the history, as DeJesus plays the field with reckless abandon.


  37. Rocco Baldelli (TB) � Why is Rocco this low?? Remember that he sustained a serious knee injury in a freak off-season incident and could be out until after the All-Star break. Baldelli had been developing into a nice player capable of 20+ homers and steals in a season, will the speed return (as it did with Corey Patterson) when he returns???


  38. Juan Gonzalez (CLE) � The injury history has been well documented, but Juan now returns to Cleveland where he went .325/35/140 (140 games) as recently as 2001. You still have to consider the possibility of Gonzalez getting his health together so he does consider a late round look, on the hope that he becomes MLB�s version of Grant Hill this year.


  39. Nick Swisher (OAK) � Older fans may remember Nick�s dad, who was a catcher for the Cubs during the �70�s. Swisher has great power with 29 AAA home runs last year, but didn�t hit for a great average (.269). He plays hard with and is Paul O�Neill like hard on himself sometimes. Look for the former first round pick to see time in the Oakland outfield this year.


  40. Grady Sizemore (CLE) � Once a highly recruited prep quarterback on the West Coast, Cleveland manager Eric Wedge has already named Sizemore his starting center fielder for this year. Sizemore is considered a multi-tooled player with eventual 20-20 capability.


  41. Alexis Rios (TOR) � After winning a league batting title with a .352 average in 2003, Rios got an early call to start in the Blue Jay outfield in �04, and hit a very respectable .286. The main knocks on Rios is little power and the fact that he doesn�t walk much. Does have 15-20 steal capability.


  42. David Dellucci (TX) � Resigned by the Rangers after hitting 17 home runs in just 331 AB�s last year. Also steals some bases, but has hit below .250 in recent seasons. Will see plenty of action as a fourth outfielder/DH v. right handers.


  43. Danny Bautista (TB) � Signed by Tampa in the off-season, Bautista will be keeping the chair warm for speedy prospect Joey Gathright for at least part of this season, not much with power or speed so Danny is just a fill-in type.


  44. Jeff DaVanon (ANG) � Had very nice numbers in a half-seasons worth of work, hitting .277 with seven homers/18 stolen bases. But there are plenty of Angels in the outfield, and DaVanon will soon find himself fighting with prospects Juan Rivera and Kendry Morales just to stay on the roster. If I was a GM for a team in need of outfield help I would probably be giving Anaheim a call right now.


  45. Joey Gathright (TB) � Last but certainly not least on this list, Gathright is yet another example on why you don�t overpay for steals early. Joey stole 33 bases in less than a half season at AAA, and stole six quick bags in a late look with the D-Rays. If Joey can beat out Danny Bautista for the left field job elevate him at least 10-15 spots on this list. This is a name you have to remember.





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