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Statistical Quotes:
"Smoking is one of the leading causes of statistics", according to columnist Fletcher Knebel.
"There are three kinds of lies; lies, damn lies, and statistics", Benjamin Disraeli
"Figures don't lie, liars figure."
"Some use statistics as a drunken man uses lamppost -- for support rather than illumination."' according to Andrew Lang (historian).
"The Government is very keen on amassing statistics. They collect them, add them, raise them to the nth power, take the cube root and prepare wonderful diagrams. But you must never forget that ever one of these figures comes in the first instance from the village watchman, who just puts down what he damn well pleases." A statement by economist Sir Josiah Stamp. In living testimony to Stamp, Jack's father, a good Haywood County farmer, was so annoyed by having been selected for the "comprehensive" census of agriculture that he added liberally to the number of plants, animals and other farm related activities that he was "by law" required to answer.
And further, I am reminded of a story of a traveler who in passing through the country, was impressed by the marksmanship of some local. It seems that on almost ever sign, tree or other permanent object was a circle with a bullet hole precisely in the center. Knowing the value of such skill he envisioned representing this person and making a vast fortune. He asked of the locals, and found that this was the result of the local, village idiot. He immediately signed up the man for public appearance and transported him to the big city. There in public display before a paying crowd, he called upon the marksman to demonstrate his poweress. Not only was he unable to center the target but in most cases, missed the target entirely. Our city-slicker withdrew in shame, but before going asked how this could happen. The response from our country bumpkin was, " I just shoot at most anything, and then draw the circle around the hole".
And from Dave Barry, Miami Herald writer, "the panel gave the MREs a rating of 8.1 on the taste scale. This is clearly a scientific result, because it contains a decimal point," or so it would appear in considering the Army's packaged food, Meals Ready to Eat (MRE), they must be tasty.
Much is made of "clusters" in health related statistical observations. Thus, it maybe reported that in a town in Massachusetts, there is a cluster of health problems. And the answer quickly goes in search of a question. The public has been drilled on the "cause-effect" argument of scientific reason. Now the question is whether this is simply the results of bad luck (for the unhealthy ones who happened to reside in the community), a pollution problem, or a statistical freak. It will be almost impossible to decide which is actually the cause of this observation. However, if one remembers the party game where in a group of 20 or so, it is likely that at least two people will have the same birthday, one can see that so called "clusters" are a random event that lacks an underlying cause. So before you fall for the tears and cries of the injustice of it all, caused by some "to-be-identified" company (always one with deep pockets), think!
And this from the Wall Street Journal : Medical Journals Give New Meaning to 'Political Science', to wit, 'Scientific Study Shows Blown Smoke Causes Hearing Loss', but not smoking itself?, or 'male births declining, and predictably blamed man-made chemicals', or "Jefferson Fathered Slave's Last Child" based on DNA evidence although some two dozen other Jefferson's with the same DNA possibility were ignored, or 'tiny amounts of chemicals when combined increase their potency by 1000 fold" never mind that the study on which the scientific article was based cannot be repeated.
Much is made of pollution especially if it is from power plant emissions. Those burning coal are leading causes of lead and mercury in the air and since government agencies have reduced the "permissible" levels of these elements in the air, they are at once considered toxic and noxious pollutants. No one questions the validity of the set levels, only that they are a target that must be met. Are they harmful at the levels? No one really knows � the better safe than sorry crowd has the advantage here. What is to be done? Ban coal burning for electricity production, after all, those plants only produce fifty percent (that is half) of our total electricity. Build more plants using natural gas which is in limited supply and the price of which is going through the roof. Build nuclear plants � only if not in my backyard. Or curtail the economy by reducing the consumption of electricity. These are hard choices, and solutions that are sometimes proposed just aren't practical; as example, solar cells, wind turbines, geothermal energy, harnessing tides, &c., the population is just too large and society too advanced. Worse than that, the population continues to increase and demand for "comfort" is natural.
The worst case of head in the sand of late is the proponents of hydrogen fuel for cars. To free the driver of dependence on fossil fuels, hydrogen can be burned. Hydrogen is a clean fuel which when burned becomes water � what could be better. And where does hydrogen come from � water. The only fly in the ointment is the requirement for energy to separate hydrogen from water in the first place. Electricity is required. So much for energy savings and protecting the environment!
So when presented with irrefutable evidence or some "fact" it is always good to question exactly what axe the author is honing. The tree cut down could well be the one under which you are standing. Or, "Fooled me once, shame on he. Fooled me twice, shame on me." Albert William Wortham (statistician). ****
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NB: I bought the book, Elementary Statistics , by Mairo F. Triola because it has some great quotations (as well as being a pretty good book on statistics.) January 19, 1999.