• Money Game Position posted by Michael Depreli [010503] GNU vs Snowie Position 79
Pip counts: White: 143, Red: 120
• Red to play 
• Equities 3-ply, cubeful [grandmaster]
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21/12 |
- 0.329 |
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46.6% 10.0% 0.3% 53.4% 16.8% 0.5% |
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13/4 |
- 0.401 ( -0.073) |
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42.2% 7.6% 0.1% 57.8% 11.8% 0.2% |
• Rollouts/ Snowie3.2, 2-ply/huge, cube: 3-ply, 1296 trials with Bearoff Database
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21/12 |
- 0.257 |
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13/4 [SW3's choice] |
- 0.335 ( -0.078) |
21/12 for me. White's third checker on the 20-point gives him a lot of timing so I don't see White's position getting worse so it is time to scoot.
Red is ahead in the race and has an even board. White's checkers on the 14-point are out of direct shot range so White will have to attack by breaking the 8-point or stripping the 6-point or using his whole roll to hit.
-- Chuck Koval
I agree that it is time to run and hope to survive. Any other play will simply force Red to deteriorate further.
It certainly isn't safe to run, but the boards are equal and Red is well ahead in the pip-count.
-- Neil Kazaross
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• Money Game Position posted by Michael Depreli [020303] GNU vs Snowie Position 93
Pip counts: White: 149, Red: 154
• Red to play 
• Equities 3-ply, cubeful [grandmaster]
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22/14(2) |
+0.497 |
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64.3% 8.7% 0.2% 35.7% 4.2% 0.0% |
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22/10* 13/9 |
+0.484 ( -0.013) |
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61.6% 18.0% 0.9% 38.4% 9.8% 0.3% |
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22/10*/6 |
+0.479 ( -0.018) |
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62.1% 16.8% 0.8% 37.9% 9.0% 0.2% |
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22/18(2) 13/9(2) |
+0.473 ( -0.024) |
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62.0% 14.0% 0.4% 38.0% 5.7% 0.1% |
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22/18(2) 18/10* |
+0.441 ( -0.056) |
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61.5% 14.3% 0.5% 38.5% 9.1% 0.2% |
• Rollouts/ Snowie3.2, 2-ply/huge, cube: 3-ply, 1296 trials with Bearoff Database
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22/14(2) |
+0.605 |
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22/10* 13/9 |
+0.540 ( -0.065) |
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22/18(2) 13/9(2) [0.14_2-ply, SW4's choice] |
+0.532 ( -0.073) |
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22/10*/6 |
+0.530 ( -0.075) |
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22/18(2) 18/10* |
+0.491 ( -0.114) |
22/14(2) is safe, Red is ahead in the race, no men back vs one man back and looking at giving a cube next roll.
-- Ian Dunstan
I'm not at all sure if the hitting is correct or not. A nice thing about 22/18(2) 13/9(2) is that it does good things on both sides of the board while grabbing the race lead.
Another advantage is that it leaves zero shots.
22/14(2) makes it easier to turn the position into a race, so that adds another aspect.
After 22/10*, Red should play the last 4 with either 10/6 or 13/9. If Red were very likely to have a cash on most of White's replies, then safe 10/6 would probably be the right path. However, that doesn't seem to be much help here. Even a fan by White after 10/6 isn't a cash (not even a double).
13/9 is great when it works. Even when White rolls his best Red is still in good shape and probably still the favorite after this play.
-- Chuck Bower
I tend to make the racing plays in positions like this, and I tend to get dinged by the bots for doing so. But Red's position plays so comfortably after 22/14(2) with racing, blocking, and attacking prospects, that it would be my choice here.
-- Dean Gay
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