• Money Game Position posted by Michael Depreli [110202] GNU vs Snowie Position 38
Pip counts: White: 105, Red: 130
• Red to play 
• Equities 3-ply, cubeful [grandmaster]
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8/3 6/4* |
+0.356 |
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60.9% 10.8% 0.1% 39.1% 9.4% 0.1% |
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6/1 6/4* |
+0.319 ( -0.036) |
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60.1% 11.0% 0.1% 39.9% 10.3% 0.1% |
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13/8 6/4* |
+0.308 ( -0.047) |
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59.7% 9.1% 0.1% 40.3% 8.1% 0.1% |
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8/1 |
+0.293 ( -0.062) |
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58.5% 9.1% 0.1% 41.5% 5.5% 0.0% |
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13/11 8/3 |
+0.251 ( -0.105) |
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57.6% 8.1% 0.1% 42.4% 6.0% 0.0% |
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8/3 8/6 |
+0.249 ( -0.107) |
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57.1% 9.0% 0.1% 42.9% 5.8% 0.0% |
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13/8 13/11 |
+0.238 ( -0.117) |
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57.0% 6.2% 0.0% 43.0% 3.5% 0.0% |
• Rollouts/ Snowie4, 2-ply/precise, cube: 3-ply, 720 trials with Bearoff Database
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8/3 6/4* |
+0.491 |
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6/1 6/4* |
+0.426 ( -0.065) |
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13/8 6/4* [SW's choice] |
+0.349 ( -0.142) |
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8/3 8/6 |
+0.348 ( -0.143) |
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8/1 [0.14_2-ply's choice] |
+0.348 ( -0.143) |
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8/3 13/11 |
+0.330 ( -0.161) |
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13/8 13/11 |
+0.281 ( -0.210) |
I'm hitting with the 2. I think Red's plan should be to hold his blocking points and try to make good inner-board points with the spares on the 6 and 8-points.
6/4* looks like the most direct way to go about this, and there isn't much risk with White having three men back and a wrecked board.
This narrows the choices for the 5 to 13/8 and 8/3 (I wouldn't consider taking a checker out of play with 6/1).
8/3 is my play. This puts the checkers where I want them, and hanging back is both thematic and more flexible.
I'm not very concerned about being hit. I may pick up another checker or simply recirculate for more flexibility.
If I come away with the 3 or 4 point while staying flexible, I've made good progress.
-- Dean Gay
Hitting and slotting behind an anchor against a stronger board with 6/1 6/4* seems a little too much for me.
I don't like 8/1 either, putting a checker out of play doesn't seem right. I want to be able to pounce on White when my chance comes.
I like clearing the mid-point even though Red is behind in the race. This brings two more checkers into the attack zone and puts a nice spare on the 11-point.
Red has time to wait and see what White rolls next and Red's attack position improves after clearing the mid-point.
I see this as more of an pre-attacking play rather than a running play. I believe a little patience is needed here. White can't run everyone out at the same time.
-- Chuck Koval
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• Money Game Position posted by Michael Depreli [112402] GNU vs Snowie Position 57
Pip counts: White: 132, Red: 98
• Red to play 
• Equities 3-ply, cubeful [grandmaster]
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18/13 18/14 |
- 0.061 |
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51.9% 19.9% 1.0% 48.1% 14.6% 0.5% |
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8/3 6/2 |
- 0.094 ( -0.033) |
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52.8% 11.5% 0.2% 47.2% 10.6% 0.1% |
• Rollouts/ Snowie3.2, 2-ply/huge, cube: 3-ply, 1296 trials with Bearoff Database
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18/13 18/14 |
- 0.038 |
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8/3 6/2 [SW3's choice] |
- 0.092 ( -0.054) |
I'd rather bolt than be a nut. There's a fine line between the 18-point being an asset and a liability.
White has the timing and clearing White's bar-point is going to be very difficult real soon.
Sometimes the decision to move one or two is close, but not here. 18/13 18/14 and get ready to duke it out.
-- Chuck Bower
I'd make the strongest board here with 8/3 6/2. White may have some difficulties playing his numbers as well, and Red may roll doubles to get home or roll a combination shot.
-- Casper van der Tak
I would try 18/13 18/14 as well. Red has a reasonable chance of coming out on top in a blot hitting contest if one develops and if Red is missed he has a flexible position to play from.
8/2 8/3 is my second choice but this leaves Red praying for doubles in the next roll or two while White tidies up his blots and makes a menacing board.
-- Ian Dunstan
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• Money Game Position posted by Michael Depreli [122802] GNU vs Snowie Position 72
Pip counts: White: 120, Red: 103
• Red to play 
• Equities 3-ply, cubeful [grandmaster]
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6/3* 4/3 |
- 0.054 |
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40.2% 17.1% 0.1% 59.8% 16.1% 0.7% |
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24/23 6/3* |
- 0.063 ( -0.010) |
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40.1% 16.6% 0.1% 59.9% 16.5% 0.6% |
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6/3*/2 |
- 0.110 ( -0.056) |
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37.6% 13.2% 0.1% 62.4% 11.9% 0.3% |
• Rollouts/ Snowie3.2, 2-ply/huge, cube: 3-ply, 1296 trials with Bearoff Database
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6/3* 4/3 |
- 0.084 |
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24/23 6/3* |
- 0.113 ( -0.029) |
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6/3*/2 [SW3's choice] |
- 0.173 ( -0.089) |
I think Red has too much ground to cover to hope White stays up. Cube is going to play a key role here, since Red may not need to finish the game. I don't know which play that favors, but I'll stick with my pure roots on this one. I'll go with 6/3* 4/3 giving an extra cover number over 6/3* 24/23.
-- Chuck Bower
6/3*, that is the easy part. Now, there are five 1's to consider: 3/2; 5/4; 16/15; 24/23 and 4/3.
My first idea was to lift with 3/2, but White's 3's are no fun no matter what, and Red still has a long way to go, so it makes sense to try for the close-out.
16/15 gives a total of 14 covers, and 12 rolls to go to the edge of White's prime, but 2's are duplicated. So only 14 good rolls, and the position is rather disaster-prone.
5/4 gives 9 covers and 12 rolls to get to the edge of the prime. This must be better than 16/15.
24/23 gives the 10 covers and 11 rolls to get to the edge of the prime; may be better than 16/5, but may be worse than 5/4.
2 super jokers as opposed to 1; but in the long term it is better to be on the 24-point than on the 23-point for escaping purposes.
4/3 gives 11 covers and 12 rolls to get to the edge of the prime. This got to be the solution.
-- Casper van der Tak
I agree with making the 3-point and having 13 non-duplicated covers. Trying for the close-out is important here, noting that White only has a three-point board so the gammon losses aren't that frequent when it backfires.
-- Neil Kazaross
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