2008 Election Model
A
Updated: June 25
If the election was
held today, the Election Model projects Obama would win an expected 360–178 EV.
The state projection model gives him 52.9% of the 2-party vote (polling data
from electoral-vote.com).
The national model indicates he
would win 55.1% (polling data from RCP).
New state polls show Obama is
leading in
The LAT/Bloomberg national poll shows Obama with a 12-point
lead.
These key battleground states are projected
to flip to Obama:
CO, IA, MO, NM, OH, VA, NC, FL, GA,
IN (new)
But there’s a catch: It’s called Election Fraud.
The Democratic True Vote is always greater than the Recorded Vote.
Approximately 3-4 million Obama votes will be uncounted (70-80%).
There will likely be vote-switching at the DREs and central tabulators.
These graphs display
polling and model projection trends:
Aggregate
state poll and projection trend
National
5-poll moving
average projection
Obama Electoral Vote Simulation Frequency
Electoral
vote and win probability trend
Electoral
vote and projected vote share trend
Undecided
voter allocation and win probability
Battleground
state win probability
Monte
Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation Trials
The 2008
Election Calculator model determined that Obama will win a 71-59m
landslide (54 - 45%).
The model calculates the True
Vote based on the following returning and new voter estimates:
2004 recorded vote, mortality, uncounted votes, 2004
voter turnout in 2008 and estimated vote shares.
The 2004 True Vote used the
(2000 recorded vote + uncounted votes - voter deaths)
* 2000 voter turnout + new 2004 voters.
The 2004
Election Model produced an amazing confirmation
of the state and national models.
Both models projected
Kerry the winner with 51.8% of the two-party vote.
Both assumed that Kerry would win
75% of the undecided vote.
The final national 5-poll projection
average was 51.76%.
The final national 18-poll
projection average was 51.63%.
Other Links:
Election
Forecasting Methodology
2004 Registered
Voter (RV) vs. Likely Voter (LV) Polls
Confirmation of A Kerry Landslide
Election Fraud Analytics and Response to the TruthIsAll FAQ
Excel Models available for download:
The Election Calculator: 1988-2004
2004 Interactive Simulation Model
A Polling Simulation Model
2000-2004 County Vote Database
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2008
Election Model |
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TruthIsAll |
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Updated: |
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Last |
State |
National |
State |
National |
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Update |
Poll |
5-poll |
2-party |
2-party |
Expected |
Win |
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Aggregate |
Average |
Projection |
Projection |
EV |
Prob |
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Obama |
46.3 |
49.0 |
52.9 |
55.1 |
360 |
100.0 |
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McCain |
42.8 |
40.8 |
47.1 |
44.9 |
178 |
0.0 |
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Undecided
voter allocation |
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Obama |
50% |
55% |
60% |
65% |
70% |
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Obama election trials |
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Win |
4938 |
4992 |
4999 |
5000 |
5000 |
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Probability |
98.76 |
99.84 |
99.98 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
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Projected
vote share |
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Obama |
51.8 |
52.3 |
52.9 |
53.4 |
53.9 |
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McCain |
48.2 |
47.7 |
47.1 |
46.6 |
46.1 |
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Electoral
Vote |
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Average
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325 |
343 |
358 |
373 |
386 |
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Median |
325 |
344 |
359 |
374 |
388 |
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Maximum |
399 |
411 |
419 |
438 |
456 |
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Minimum |
236 |
256 |
262 |
293 |
302 |
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95%
Confidence Interval |
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Upper |
373 |
388 |
401 |
411 |
421 |
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Lower |
277 |
298 |
316 |
334 |
350 |
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States
Won |
27 |
29 |
30 |
32 |
33 |
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POLLING
ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS |
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State Model |
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State
Polls before Undecided Voter Allocation |
Obama |
Win |
Trial |
Flip to |
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EV |
Obama |
McCain |
Diff |
BO EV |
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Projection |
Probability |
EV |
Obama |
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Total |
538 |
46.5 |
43.0 |
3.6 |
328 |
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52.8 |
100.0 |
385 |
10 |
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9 |
33 |
59 |
(26) |
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37.8 |
0.0 |
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AK |
3 |
41 |
45 |
(4) |
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49.4 |
38.2 |
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AK |
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AZ |
10 |
28 |
38 |
(10) |
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48.4 |
21.2 |
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AZ |
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AR |
6 |
40 |
47 |
(7) |
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47.8 |
13.6 |
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AR |
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CA |
55 |
53 |
41 |
12 |
55 |
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56.6 |
100.0 |
55 |
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CA |
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CO |
9 |
43 |
41 |
2 |
9 |
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52.6 |
90.3 |
9 |
Obama |
CO |
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CT |
7 |
47 |
44 |
3 |
7 |
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52.4 |
88.5 |
7 |
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CT |
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DC |
3 |
90 |
9 |
81 |
3 |
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90.6 |
100.0 |
3 |
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DC |
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DE |
3 |
50 |
41 |
9 |
3 |
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55.4 |
99.7 |
3 |
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DE |
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FL |
27 |
45 |
45 |
0 |
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51.0 |
69.1 |
27 |
Obama |
FL |
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GA |
15 |
43 |
44 |
(1) |
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50.8 |
65.5 |
15 |
Obama |
GA |
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HI |
4 |
61 |
31 |
30 |
4 |
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65.8 |
100.0 |
4 |
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HI |
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ID |
4 |
39 |
52 |
(13) |
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44.4 |
0.3 |
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ID |
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IL |
21 |
60 |
31 |
29 |
21 |
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65.4 |
100.0 |
21 |
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IL |
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IN |
11 |
48 |
47 |
1 |
11 |
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51.0 |
69.1 |
11 |
Obama |
IN |
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IA |
7 |
47 |
42 |
5 |
7 |
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53.6 |
96.4 |
7 |
Obama |
IA |
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KS |
6 |
37 |
47 |
(10) |
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46.6 |
4.5 |
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KS |
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KY |
8 |
41 |
53 |
(12) |
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44.6 |
0.3 |
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KY |
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LA |
9 |
41 |
50 |
(9) |
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46.4 |
3.6 |
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LA |
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ME |
4 |
55 |
33 |
22 |
4 |
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62.2 |
100.0 |
4 |
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ME |
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MD |
10 |
52 |
39 |
13 |
10 |
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57.4 |
100.0 |
10 |
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MD |
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MA |
12 |
53 |
30 |
23 |
12 |
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63.2 |
100.0 |
12 |
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MA |
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MI |
17 |
48 |
39 |
9 |
17 |
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55.8 |
99.8 |
17 |
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MI |
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MN |
10 |
50 |
43 |
7 |
10 |
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54.2 |
98.2 |
10 |
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MN |
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MS |
6 |
44 |
50 |
(6) |
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47.6 |
11.5 |
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MS |
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MO |
11 |
43 |
42 |
1 |
11 |
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52.0 |
84.1 |
11 |
Obama |
MO |
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MT |
3 |
39 |
47 |
(8) |
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47.4 |
9.7 |
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MT |
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NE |
5 |
36 |
52 |
(16) |
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43.2 |
0.0 |
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NE |
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NV |
5 |
42 |
45 |
(3) |
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49.8 |
46.0 |
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NV |
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NH |
4 |
51 |
39 |
12 |
4 |
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57.0 |
100.0 |
4 |
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NH |
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NJ |
15 |
47 |
39 |
8 |
15 |
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55.4 |
99.7 |
15 |
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NJ |
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NM |
5 |
47 |
39 |
8 |
5 |
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55.4 |
99.7 |
5 |
Obama |
NM |
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NY |
31 |
51 |
34 |
17 |
31 |
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60.0 |
100.0 |
31 |
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NY |
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NC |
15 |
43 |
45 |
(2) |
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50.2 |
54.0 |
15 |
Obama |
NC |
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ND |
3 |
38 |
44 |
(6) |
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48.8 |
27.4 |
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ND |
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OH |
20 |
46 |
43 |
3 |
20 |
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52.6 |
90.3 |
20 |
Obama |
OH |
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OK |
7 |
38 |
52 |
(14) |
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44.0 |
0.1 |
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OK |
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OR |
7 |
48 |
45 |
3 |
7 |
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52.2 |
86.4 |
7 |
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OR |
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PA |
21 |
46 |
42 |
4 |
21 |
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53.2 |
94.5 |
21 |
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PA |
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RI |
4 |
53 |
38 |
15 |
4 |
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58.4 |
100.0 |
4 |
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RI |
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SC |
8 |
39 |
48 |
(9) |
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46.8 |
5.5 |
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SC |
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SD |
3 |
34 |
51 |
(17) |
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43.0 |
0.0 |
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SD |
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TN |
11 |
31 |
58 |
(27) |
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37.6 |
0.0 |
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TN |
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TX |
34 |
39 |
52 |
(13) |
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44.4 |
0.3 |
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TX |
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UT |
5 |
31 |
55 |
(24) |
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39.4 |
0.0 |
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UT |
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VT |
3 |
63 |
29 |
34 |
3 |
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67.8 |
100.0 |
3 |
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VT |
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VA |
13 |
45 |
44 |
1 |
13 |
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51.6 |
78.8 |
13 |
Obama |
VA |
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WA |
11 |
55 |
40 |
15 |
11 |
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58.0 |
100.0 |
11 |
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WA |
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WV |
5 |
37 |
45 |
(8) |
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47.8 |
13.6 |
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WV |
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WI |
10 |
51 |
40 |
11 |
10 |
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56.4 |
99.9 |
10 |
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WI |
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WY |
3 |
40 |
53 |
(13) |
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44.2 |
0.2 |
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WY |
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National
Model |
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10-poll |
Last
Poll |
Sample |
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5-poll
moving avg |
Projection
moving avg |
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Trend |
Date |
Size |
Obama |
McCain |
Spread |
Obama |
McCain |
Obama |
McCain |
Diff |
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Bloomberg |
6/23 |
1115RV |
49 |
37 |
12 |
49.0 |
40.8 |
55.1 |
44.9 |
10.2 |
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Rasmussen |
6/23 |
3000 LV |
49 |
44 |
5 |
48.2 |
41.6 |
54.3 |
45.7 |
8.6 |
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Gallup |
6/23 |
2587RV |
46 |
43 |
3 |
48.0 |
41.8 |
54.1 |
45.9 |
8.2 |
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6/19 |
1310LV |
50 |
44 |
6 |
48.2 |
41.6 |
54.3 |
45.7 |
8.6 |
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Newsweek |
6/18 |
896RV |
51 |
36 |
15 |
48.0 |
41.8 |
54.1 |
45.9 |
8.2 |
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FOX |
6/18 |
900RV |
45 |
41 |
4 |
46.6 |
42.6 |
53.1 |
46.9 |
6.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Rasmussen |
6/18 |
3000 LV |
48 |
45 |
3 |
47.0 |
42.8 |
53.1 |
46.9 |
6.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Gallup |
6/17 |
2605 RV |
47 |
42 |
5 |
46.8 |
42.0 |
53.5 |
46.5 |
7.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
ABC/WP |
6/15 |
-- |
49 |
45 |
4 |
46.2 |
42.0 |
53.3 |
46.7 |
6.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
COOK/RT |
6/15 |
880 RV |
44 |
40 |
4 |
45.0 |
41.0 |
53.4 |
46.6 |
6.8 |
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The 2004
Election Model: Final Projection Summary |
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|||||||
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Projection |
Elec. Vote |
2-party % |
Win Prob |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Kerry |
337 |
51.8 |
99.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bush |
201 |
48.2 |
0.1 |
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Monte
Carlo Simulation |
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State
EV Model |
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Undecided% |
Allocation |
|
BaseCase |
|
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|
|
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|
|
Kerry |
60% |
67% |
75% |
80% |
87% |
|
|
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|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
Trial Wins |
4901 |
4972 |
4995 |
4997 |
4999 |
|
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|
Projected% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Kerry |
51.02 |
51.38 |
51.80 |
52.07 |
52.43 |
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bush |
48.98 |
48.62 |
48.20 |
47.93 |
47.57 |
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|
Win Prob% |
|
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|
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|
|
|
|
Kerry |
98.02 |
99.44 |
99.90 |
99.94 |
99.98 |
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
Bush |
1.98 |
0.56 |
0.1 |
0.06 |
0.02 |
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|
Electoral
Vote |
|
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|
Average
|
320 |
328 |
337 |
343 |
352 |
|
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|
|
Median |
322 |
329 |
338 |
345 |
353 |
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Maximum |
379 |
388 |
399 |
405 |
412 |
|
|
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|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
Minimum |
211 |
237 |
223 |
243 |
254 |
|
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95%
Conf. Interval |
|
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|
Upper
Limit |
361 |
368 |
376 |
382 |
389 |
|
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|
Lower
Limit |
278 |
288 |
298 |
305 |
315 |
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National
18-Polls |
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|
Vote% |
50.73 |
51.15 |
51.63 |
51.92 |
52.34 |
|
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|
|
Prob% |
97.6 |
99.9 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
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States
Won |
26 |
27 |
27 |
28 |
30 |
|
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2004 |
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||||||||
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State
Model |
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|
Vote share |
Vote share |
Final Poll |
Final Poll |
Projected |
Exit Poll |
EP-Vote |
EP-Proj |
Exit Poll |
Kerry |
Kerry |
Proj-EP < |
Proj-vote > |
WPE> |
|
|
State |
EV |
Kerry |
Bush |
Kerry |
Bush |
Kerry |
Kerry |
Diff |
Diff |
WPE |
Proj EV |
EP EV |
2.0 |
2.0 |
6.0 |
|
|
Average |
538 |
48.3 |
50.7 |
47.7 |
47.0 |
51.0 |
51.8 |
3.6 |
0.8 |
7.1 |
331 |
325 |
21 |
33 |
25 |
|
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|
AL |
9 |
36.8 |
62.5 |
39 |
57 |
41.3 |
42.5 |
5.7 |
1.2 |
11.3 |
|
|
yes |
yes |
yes |
AL |
|
AK |
3 |
35.5 |
61.1 |
30 |
57 |
39.0 |
40.3 |
4.8 |
1.3 |
9.6 |
|
|
yes |
yes |
yes |
AK |
|
AZ |
10 |
44.4 |
54.9 |
45 |
50 |
48.0 |
46.7 |
2.3 |
(1.3) |
4.6 |
|
|
yes |
yes |
|
AZ |
|
AR |
6 |
44.5 |
54.3 |
46 |
48 |
49.8 |
44.8 |
0.3 |
(5.0) |
0.5 |
6 |
|
|
yes |
|
AR |
|
CA |
55 |
54.3 |
44.4 |
49 |
42 |
55.0 |
59.8 |
5.5 |
4.8 |
10.9 |
55 |
55 |
|
|
yes |
CA |
|
|
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|
|
CO |
9 |
47.0 |
51.7 |
47 |
48 |
50.0 |
50.1 |
3.1 |
0.1 |
6.1 |
9 |
9 |
yes |
yes |
yes |
CO |
|
CT |
7 |
54.3 |
43.9 |
52 |
42 |
55.8 |
62.2 |
7.9 |
6.4 |
15.7 |
7 |
7 |
|
|
yes |
CT |
|
DC |
3 |
89.2 |
9.3 |
78 |
11 |
85.5 |
90.9 |
1.7 |
5.4 |
3.4 |
3 |
3 |
|
|
|
DC |
|
DE |
3 |
53.3 |
45.8 |
45 |
38 |
57.0 |
61.3 |
8.0 |
4.3 |
15.9 |
3 |
3 |
|
yes |
yes |
DE |
|
FL |
27 |
47.1 |
52.1 |
50 |
47 |
51.5 |
50.9 |
3.8 |
(0.6) |
7.6 |
27 |
27 |
yes |
yes |
yes |
FL |
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
GA |
15 |
41.4 |
58.0 |
42 |
52 |
45.8 |
42.5 |
1.1 |
(3.3) |
2.2 |
|
|
|
yes |
|
GA |
|
HI |
4 |
54.0 |
45.3 |
45 |
45 |
51.8 |
56.4 |
2.4 |
4.6 |
4.7 |
4 |
4 |
|
|
|
HI |
|
ID |
4 |
30.3 |
68.4 |
30 |
59 |
37.5 |
30.8 |
0.5 |
(6.7) |
1.0 |
|
|
|
yes |
|
ID |
|
IL |
21 |
54.8 |
44.5 |
54 |
42 |
56.3 |
57.0 |
2.2 |
0.8 |
4.4 |
21 |
21 |
yes |
|
|
IL |
|
IN |
11 |
39.3 |
59.9 |
39 |
58 |
40.5 |
40.0 |
0.8 |
(0.5) |
1.5 |
|
|
yes |
|
|
IN |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
IA |
7 |
49.2 |
49.9 |
50 |
44 |
53.8 |
50.7 |
1.5 |
(3.0) |
3.0 |
7 |
7 |
|
yes |
|
IA |
|
KS |
6 |
36.6 |
62.0 |
37 |
60 |
38.5 |
37.5 |
0.9 |
(1.0) |
1.7 |
|
|
yes |
|
|
KS |
|
KY |
8 |
39.7 |
59.6 |
39 |
56 |
42.0 |
39.6 |
(0.0) |
(2.4) |
(0.1) |
|
|
|
yes |
|
KY |
|
LA |
9 |
42.2 |
56.7 |
40 |
48 |
48.3 |
44.1 |
1.9 |
(4.1) |
3.8 |
|
|
|
yes |
|
LA |
|
ME |
4 |
53.6 |
44.6 |
50 |
39 |
57.5 |
55.5 |
1.9 |
(2.0) |
3.8 |
4 |
4 |
|
yes |
|
ME |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
MD |
10 |
55.9 |
42.9 |
54 |
43 |
55.5 |
60.0 |
4.1 |
4.5 |
8.1 |
10 |
10 |
|
|
yes |
MD |
|
MA |
12 |
61.9 |
36.8 |
64 |
27 |
70.0 |
64.8 |
2.9 |
(5.2) |
5.8 |
12 |
12 |
|
yes |
|
MA |
|
MI |
17 |
51.2 |
47.8 |
52 |
45 |
53.5 |
54.4 |
3.2 |
0.9 |
6.3 |
17 |
17 |
yes |
yes |
yes |
MI |
|
MN |
10 |
51.1 |
47.6 |
52 |
44 |
54.3 |
55.7 |
4.7 |
1.5 |
9.3 |
10 |
10 |
yes |
yes |
yes |
MN |
|
MS |
6 |
40.2 |
59.0 |
42 |
51 |
46.5 |
45.8 |
5.7 |
(0.7) |
11.3 |
|
|
yes |
yes |
yes |
MS |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
MO |
11 |
46.1 |
53.3 |
44 |
49 |
48.5 |
49.0 |
2.9 |
0.5 |
5.8 |
|
|
yes |
yes |
|
MO |
|
MT |
3 |
38.6 |
59.1 |
36 |
57 |
40.5 |
37.7 |
(0.9) |
(2.8) |
(1.8) |
|
|
|
|
|
MT |
|
NE |
5 |
32.7 |
65.9 |
32 |
61 |
36.5 |
36.7 |
4.1 |
0.2 |
8.1 |
|
|
yes |
yes |
yes |
NE |
|
NV |
5 |
47.9 |
50.5 |
49 |
49 |
49.8 |
52.9 |
5.1 |
3.2 |
10.1 |
5 |
5 |
|
|
yes |
NV |
|
NH |
4 |
50.2 |
48.9 |
47 |
47 |
50.8 |
57.0 |
6.8 |
6.3 |
13.6 |
4 |
4 |
|
|
yes |
NH |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
NJ |
15 |
52.9 |
46.2 |
50 |
42 |
55.3 |
57.8 |
4.9 |
2.5 |
9.7 |
15 |
15 |
|
yes |
yes |
NJ |
|
NM |
5 |
49.0 |
49.8 |
49 |
49 |
49.8 |
52.9 |
3.9 |
3.2 |
7.8 |
5 |
5 |
|
|
yes |
NM |
|
NY |
31 |
58.4 |
40.1 |
57 |
39 |
59.3 |
64.1 |
5.7 |
4.8 |
11.4 |
31 |
31 |
|
|
yes |
NY |
|
NC |
15 |
43.6 |
56.0 |
47 |
50 |
48.5 |
49.2 |
5.7 |
0.7 |
11.3 |
|
|
yes |
yes |
yes |
NC |
|
ND |
3 |
35.5 |
62.9 |
35 |
55 |
41.8 |
32.9 |
(2.6) |
(8.9) |
(5.2) |
|
|
|
yes |
|
ND |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
OH |
20 |
48.7 |
50.8 |
50 |
47 |
51.5 |
54.2 |
5.5 |
2.7 |
10.9 |
20 |
20 |
|
yes |
yes |
OH |
|
OK |
7 |
34.4 |
65.6 |
28 |
61 |
35.5 |
33.5 |
(1.0) |
(2.0) |
(1.9) |
|
|
|
|
|
OK |
|
OR |
7 |
51.3 |
47.2 |
50 |
44 |
53.8 |
53.0 |
1.7 |
(0.8) |
1.8 |
7 |
7 |
yes |
yes |
|
OR |
|
PA |
21 |
50.9 |
48.4 |
50 |
45 |
53.0 |
55.3 |
4.4 |
2.3 |
8.8 |
21 |
21 |
|
yes |
yes |
PA |
|
RI |
4 |
59.4 |
38.7 |
56 |
36 |
61.3 |
61.8 |
2.4 |
0.5 |
4.7 |
4 |
4 |
yes |
|
|
RI |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
SC |
8 |
40.9 |
58.0 |
42 |
55 |
43.5 |
45.9 |
5.0 |
2.4 |
10.0 |
|
|
|
yes |
yes |
SC |
|
SD |
3 |
38.4 |
59.9 |
42 |
52 |
45.8 |
36.3 |
(2.1) |
(9.4) |
(4.2) |
|
|
|
yes |
|
SD |
|
TN |
11 |
42.5 |
56.8 |
47 |
50 |
48.5 |
42.8 |
0.3 |
(5.7) |
0.5 |
|
|
|
yes |
|
TN |
|
TX |
34 |
38.2 |
61.1 |
37 |
59 |
39.3 |
40.6 |
2.4 |
1.4 |
4.8 |
|
|
yes |
|
|
TX |
|
UT |
5 |
26.0 |
71.5 |
24 |
69 |
28.5 |
29.2 |
3.2 |
0.7 |
6.4 |
|
|
yes |
yes |
yes |
UT |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
VT |
3 |
58.9 |
38.8 |
53 |
40 |
57.5 |
66.4 |
7.5 |
8.9 |
15.0 |
3 |
3 |
|
|
yes |
VT |
|
VA |
13 |
45.5 |
53.7 |
47 |
51 |
47.8 |
49.4 |
4.0 |
1.7 |
7.9 |
|
|
yes |
yes |
yes |
VA |
|
WA |
11 |
52.8 |
45.6 |
52 |
44 |
54.3 |
57.0 |
4.2 |
2.8 |
8.4 |
11 |
11 |
|
|
yes |
WA |
|
WV |
5 |
43.2 |
56.1 |
45 |
49 |
48.8 |
40.3 |
(2.9) |
(8.5) |
(5.8) |
|
|
|
yes |
|
WV |
|
WI |
10 |
49.7 |
49.3 |
51 |
44 |
54.0 |
52.0 |
2.4 |
(2.0) |
4.7 |
10 |
10 |
yes |
yes |
|
WI |
|
WY |
3 |
29.1 |
68.9 |
29 |
65 |
32.8 |
31.2 |
2.2 |
(1.5) |
4.3 |
|
|
yes |
yes |
|
WY |
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National
Model |
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75% UVA |
projection |
5-poll
moving average |
2-pty
moving average |
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Poll |
Size |
Poll |
Kerry |
Bush |
Kerry |
Bush |
Kerry |
Bush |
Kerry |
Bush |
Diff |
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Average |
Date |
1720 |
Type |
47.3 |
46.9 |
50.9 |
48.1 |
51.3 |
47.8 |
51.8 |
48.2 |
3.5 |
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Harris |
2-Nov |
5508 |
LV |
50 |
47 |
51.5 |
47.5 |
51.3 |
47.8 |
51.8 |
48.2 |
3.5 |
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Zogby |
2-Nov |
1200 |
LV |
47 |
48 |
50.0 |
49.0 |
51.1 |
48.0 |
51.6 |
48.4 |
3.1 |
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Marist |
1-Nov |
1166 |
LV |
49 |
48 |
50.5 |
48.5 |
51.6 |
47.5 |
52.1 |
47.9 |
4.1 |
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Econ |
1-Nov |
2903 |
RV |
49 |
45 |
52.8 |
46.3 |
51.7 |
47.4 |
52.2 |
47.8 |
4.3 |
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TIPP |
1-Nov |
1284 |
LV |
44 |
45 |
51.5 |
47.5 |
51.5 |
47.6 |
52.0 |
48.0 |
3.9 |
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CBS |
1-Nov |
1125 |
RV |
46 |
47 |
50.5 |
48.5 |
51.2 |
47.9 |
51.7 |
48.3 |
3.3 |
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FOX |
31-Oct |
1400 |
RV |
48 |
45 |
52.5 |
46.5 |
51.3 |
47.8 |
51.8 |
48.2 |
3.5 |
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DemCorp |
31-Oct |
1018 |
LV |
48 |
47 |
51.0 |
48.0 |
50.9 |
48.2 |
51.4 |
48.6 |
2.7 |
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Gallup |
31-Oct |
1866 |
RV |
48 |
46 |
51.8 |
47.3 |
51.1 |
48.0 |
51.6 |
48.4 |
3.1 |
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NBC |
31-Oct |
1014 |
LV |
47 |
48 |
50.0 |
49.0 |
50.6 |
48.4 |
51.1 |
48.9 |
2.2 |
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ABC |
31-Oct |
3511 |
RV |
48 |
47 |
51.0 |
48.0 |
50.8 |
48.3 |
51.3 |
48.7 |
2.5 |
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ARG |
30-Oct |
1258 |
LV |
49 |
48 |
50.5 |
48.5 |
50.8 |
48.3 |
51.3 |
48.7 |
2.5 |
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Pew |
30-Oct |
2408 |
RV |
46 |
45 |
52.0 |
47.0 |
50.2 |
48.9 |
50.7 |
49.3 |
1.3 |
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Nwk |
29-Oct |
1005 |
RV |
45 |
48 |
49.5 |
49.5 |
50.2 |
48.9 |
50.7 |
49.3 |
1.3 |
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ICR |
26-Oct |
817 |
RV |
44 |
46 |
50.8 |
48.3 |
na |
na |
na |
na |
na |
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LAT |
24-Oct |
1698 |
RV |
48 |
47 |
51.0 |
48.0 |
na |
na |
na |
na |
na |
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Time |
21-Oct |
803 |
LV |
46 |
51 |
47.5 |
51.5 |
na |
na |
na |
na |
na |
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AP |
20-Oct |
976 |
LV |
49 |
46 |
52.0 |
47.0 |
na |
na |
na |
na |
na |
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