The 2004 Election Model

 

TruthIsAll

 

 

The final pre-election state polls  matched the pre-election national polls.
Kerry led the final pre-election state poll weighted average by 47.7- 47.0%.
He also led the 18 final national polls by 47.3 - 46.9%.

The final weighted average state model projection exactly matched the final 5-poll national average.
The Final 2004 Election Model  projected that Kerry would win 337-201 EV with 51.8%.

Preliminary State and National exit polls also indicated that Kerry won.

 

The final 18 national poll average projection was 51.6%.

Kerry’s projected vote share was within 2.0% of his exit poll share in 23 states.

 

Bush won the recorded vote by 62 - 59m (50.7- 48.4%) and the electoral vote by 286 - 251.

Approximately 3.4 million votes were uncounted.

 

The 12:22am National Exit Poll (Voted 2000) indicated that Kerry won by 51.9% (2-party).
Respondents were randomly selected and the margin of error was 1.1%.

The Final National Exit poll was forced to match the fraudulent recorded vote.

 

The exit pollsters released the Edison-Mitofsky 2004 Exit Poll Evaluation in Jan. 2005.

E-M discussed polling methodology and provided summary statistics by state, region and voting method.

 

The 1:25pm FINAL National Exit Poll indicated that Kerry lost by 48 - 51%.
All FINAL National Exit Polls are 'forced' to match the Recorded Vote.
The 'forcing' of the 2004 Exit Poll numbers resulted in IMPOSSIBLE demographics.

 

Within Precinct Error (WPE) is the average deviation between unadjusted exit poll and recorded vote.

It is more appropriate to call the difference a Within Precinct Discrepancy (WPD).

 

Kerry won the unadjusted (WPD) aggregate state exit poll by 52.0-47.0% (average of three measures).

The WPD exceeded 6% in 25 states for Bush. It exceeded 4% in 34 states for Bush and just 2 for Kerry.

The WPD was less than 2% in 8 heavily Republican states (AR, ID, IN, KS, KY, MT, OK and TN) and 

Democratic Oregon, the only state in which voting is 100% by mail-in paper ballots.

 

Professional pollsters allocate undecided voters in every election.
The majority are allocated to the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular.
Bush had a 48% approval rating on Election Day.
There was a strong 0.87 correlation between Bush monthly approval and his poll numbers.

 

The Gallup Poll allocated 90% of undecided voters to Kerry.

Harris and Zogby projected that he would get 67-80% of undecided voters.

The Final Election Model base case scenario assumed Kerry would capture 75% of undecided voters.

 

 

Pre-election and Exit Poll Confirmation

 

Final pre-election polls showed Kerry and Bush in a virtual tie.
The unweighted state average favored Bush, but Kerry led the aggregate weighted average.
The pre-election aggregate state polls closely matched the national poll average.

A few still claim that polling analysis cannot prove that the 2004 election was stolen.

They claim the Final National Exit Poll  (NEP) was correct and the unadjusted exit polls were wrong.
But a careful analysis of the pre-election and exit polls provides powerful evidence that it was.

 

The Final was forced to match the recorded vote using impossible weightings.

After undecided voters were allocated, the pre-election polls matched the unadjusted exit polls.

 

Simple MATH proves that the Final NEP inflated the number of returning Bush voters by 6.6m.

The Final indicates that Bush 2000 voters comprised 43% (52.6m) of the 2004 electorate (122.3m).

But Bush only had 50.5m recorded votes in 2000.

 

Voter mortality tables show that approximately 2m Bush 2000 voters died prior to 2004.

And about 2.5m Bush 2000 voters did not vote in 2004, assuming that 95% of 48.5m voted.

Therefore, only about 46.0m Bush 2000 voters could possibly have returned to vote in 2004.

But according to the Final NEP, 52.6m returned to vote – a mathematical impossibility. 

 

Bush needed 16 million new voters to achieve his 62m recorded vote.

According to the 2004 Election Calculator, he had 57m of 125.7m, an 11m increase.

Where did Bush find 16m new voters?

 

Kerry won the final 5m recorded votes by 54.3 - 45.7%.

These were late votes recorded a few days after the election.

They consisted primarily of absentee and provisional ballots.

 

Bush won the 2004 recorded vote by 62.0 - 59.0m (50.7- 48.3%) and had 286 EV.

Of 3.4 million uncounted votes, approximately 2.6m were for Kerry - a net 1.8m margin.

Bush’s 3.0m margin is thus reduced to 1.2m – and that’s before vote-switching.

 

To believe that Bush won, one must believe that the pre-election and unadjusted exit polls were wrong.
And also believe that the Final Exit Poll, although mathematically impossible, was accurate.

 

The 12:22am National Exit Poll indicated that Kerry won by 51.4 - 47.6%.

The NEP margin of error was 1.12%, assuming a 30% exit poll cluster effect.

 

Kerry’s final projected vote share was

- greater than his recorded vote share in 47 states

- lower than his unadjusted exit poll share in 45 states

- within 2.0% of the unadjusted exit poll in 21 states and within 1% in 12 states

- at least 2% higher than his recorded vote share in 33 states

 

The WPE exceeded 6.0 in 25 states.

The probability of this occurrence is effectively ZERO.

 

The Election Model utilized 18 final national polls, 9 RV and 9 LV.

After allocating 75% of undecided voters to Kerry, he led by 50.9 - 48.1%

Based on the 122.3m recorded vote, he won by 62.3 - 58.8m.

But this does not include 3.4m uncounted votes (2.74% of total votes cast).

 

Assuming that Kerry won 75% of the uncounted votes, add 2.5m to his total and 0.8m to Bush.

Kerry's margin becomes 64.8- 59.6m (51.6 - 47.4%).

That's within 0.2% of his 51.8% unadjusted aggregate state exit poll share.

 

The Election Calculator Model

 

This model indicates that Kerry won the 2004 True Vote in a 67-57m landslide (53.2 - 45.4%).

 

2000 voter turnout in 2004 was total votes cast in 2000 less mortality times the turnout percentage.

In 2000, the Census reported that 110.8m votes were cast, but only 105.4m were recorded.

In 2004, the Census reported that 125.7m votes cast, but only 122.3m were recorded.

 

The Calculator determines the True Vote based on the estimated shares of returning voters.

The 12:22am National Exit Poll “How Voted” category is a reasonable best case estimate.

Kerry won 57% of new voters and others who did not vote in 2000.

He won 91% of returning Gore voters and 10% of Bush voters.

He captured 64% of returning Nader voters. Bush had 17%.

 

Exit poll critics claim the unadjusted and adjusted (GEO, Composite) exit polls were wrong.

They argue that the final exit polls, which were forced to match the recorded vote, were correct.

 

The Final National Exit Poll overstated the number of returning Bush voters by 6.6m.

This analysis is proof that it is mathematically impossible:

The Final indicates that 43% (52.6m) of the 2004 electorate (122.3m) were Bush 2000 voters.

But Bush only had 50.5m recorded votes in 2000. Approximately 2.5m of them died prior to 2004.

So 48m Bush 2000 voters were still alive in 2004. If 96% voted, then 2m did not return to vote.

Therefore, only 46.0m (37.6% of 122.3m) Bush 2000 voters could have voted in 2004.

 

This calculation is a close approximation to the number of new 2004 voters:

In 2000, 110.8m votes cast but only 105.4m were recorded (5.4m were uncounted).

Assuming that he had 4m uncounted votes (75% of the total), Gore had nearly 55.0m votes,

 

Approximately 5m voters in 2000 died prior to 2004 and another 5m did not vote, assuming a 95% turnout.

In 2004, 125.7m total votes were cast but only 122.3m recorded (3.4m were uncounted).

Therefore, there were approximately 25m new voters in 2004.

 

According to the 12:22am National Exit Poll, Kerry won:

a) 14.3m (57%) new voters; Bush won 10.3m (41%),

b)  2.4m (64%) returning Nader and other voters; Bush had 0.6m (17%),

c)  5.1m (10%) returning Bush voters; Bush won 4.1m (8%) of returning Gore voters.

 

Kerry won the True Vote by 67-57m (53.2 - 45.4%). The calculation is:

TV = 66.7m = 55m (Gore) - 6m (died + DNV) + 14.3m (new) + 2.4m (Other) + 5.1m (Bush) - 4.1m (Gore)

 

 

Summary of 2004 pre-election polls, exit polls and the True Vote
		Kerry	Bush
Final Recorded		48.3	50.7
Pre-election Polls
State aggregate
Unweighted average		45.6	48.3
Weighted  average		47.7	47.0
National Poll Averages
Final 5		47.2	46.4
Final 18		47.3	46.9
131 LV		45.6	48.1	(7/6-11/01)
31 RV		45.0	45.0	(7/6-9/26)
Final 15 LV		47.0	49.0
Election Model (2-party projection)
State		51.8	48.2
Nat. Final 5		51.8	48.2
Nat. 18 (9RV+9LV)		51.6	48.4
Exit Polls (Edison-Mitofsky)
Unadjusted State (WPE measure)
VNS		51.84	47.16	Prior to 2002 = 4 outlier precincts removed
IMS		51.98	47.01	Input Management Screen- all precincts included
DSS		52.15	46.85	Decision Summary -4 outlier precincts removed
Adjusted State
Best GEO		51.0	48.5
Composite (12:40am)		50.3	49.1
National Exit Poll
Voted 2000
4pm		51.0	47.0	(8649 respondents, 38/41 Gore Bush weights)
730pm		50.9	47.1	(11027, 39/42)
12:22am		51.4	47.6	(13047, 39/41)
12:22am (Gender)		50.8	48.2
Final Exit Poll		48.5	51.1	(13660, 37/43- matched to recorded vote count)
True Vote
Election Calculator		53.2	45.4	39.5/37.1 weights (adj. for voter mortality, turnout, uncounted votes)

 

	The 2004 Election Model: Final Projection Summary
		Projection	Elec. Vote	2-party %	Win Prob
		Kerry	337	51.8	99.9
		Bush	201	48.2	0.1
			Monte Carlo Simulation
			State EV Model
	Undecided%	Allocation		BaseCase
	Kerry	60%	67%	75%	80%	87%
	Trial  Wins	4901	4972	4995	4997	4999
	Projected%
	Kerry	51.02	51.38	51.8	52.07	52.43
	Bush	48.98	48.62	48.2	47.93	47.57
	Win Prob%
	Kerry	98.02	99.44	99.9	99.94	99.98
	Bush	1.98	0.56	0.1	0.06	0.02
	Electoral Vote
	Average	320	328	337	343	352
	Median	322	329	338	345	353
	Maximum	379	388	399	405	412
	Minimum	211	237	223	243	254
	95% Conf. Interval
	Upper Limit	361	368	376	382	389
	Lower Limit	278	288	298	305	315
	National 18-Polls
	Vote%	50.73	51.15	51.63	51.92	52.34
	Prob%	97.55	99.9	100	100	100
	States Won	26	27	27	28	30
	2004 Election Model: Pre-election State Polls, Projections and Exit Polls
	State Model
			Final	Vote	Final	Poll	Projected	Exit Poll	EP-Vote	EP-Proj	Exit Poll	Kerry	Kerry	Proj-EP <	Proj-vote >	WPE>
	State	EV	Kerry	Bush	Kerry	Bush	Kerry	Kerry	Diff	Diff	WPE	Proj EV	EP EV	2.0	2.0	6.0
	Average	538	48.3	50.7	47.7	47.0	51.0	51.8	3.6	0.8	7.1	331	325	21	33	25
	AL	9	36.8	62.5	39	57	41.3	42.5	5.7	1.2	11.3			yes	yes	yes	AL
	AK	3	35.5	61.1	30	57	39.0	40.3	4.8	1.3	9.6			yes	yes	yes	AK
	AZ	10	44.4	54.9	45	50	48.0	46.7	2.3	(1.3)	4.6			yes	yes		AZ
	AR	6	44.5	54.3	46	48	49.8	44.8	0.3	(5.0)	0.5	6			yes		AR
	CA	55	54.3	44.4	49	42	55.0	59.8	5.5	4.8	10.9	55	55			yes	CA
	CO	9	47.0	51.7	47	48	50.0	50.1	3.1	0.1	6.1	9	9	yes	yes	yes	CO
	CT	7	54.3	43.9	52	42	55.8	62.2	7.9	6.4	15.7	7	7			yes	CT
	DC	3	89.2	9.3	78	11	85.5	90.9	1.7	5.4	3.4	3	3				DC
	DE	3	53.3	45.8	45	38	57.0	61.3	8.0	4.3	15.9	3	3		yes	yes	DE
	FL	27	47.1	52.1	50	47	51.5	50.9	3.8	(0.6)	7.6	27	27	yes	yes	yes	FL
	GA	15	41.4	58.0	42	52	45.8	42.5	1.1	(3.3)	2.2				yes		GA
	HI	4	54.0	45.3	45	45	51.8	56.4	2.4	4.6	4.7	4	4				HI
	ID	4	30.3	68.4	30	59	37.5	30.8	0.5	(6.7)	1.0				yes		ID
	IL	21	54.8	44.5	54	42	56.3	57.0	2.2	0.8	4.4	21	21	yes			IL
	IN	11	39.3	59.9	39	58	40.5	40.0	0.8	(0.5)	1.5			yes			IN
	IA	7	49.2	49.9	50	44	53.8	50.7	1.5	(3.0)	3.0	7	7		yes		IA
	KS	6	36.6	62.0	37	60	38.5	37.5	0.9	(1.0)	1.7			yes			KS
	KY	8	39.7	59.6	39	56	42.0	39.6	(0.0)	(2.4)	(0.1)				yes		KY
	LA	9	42.2	56.7	40	48	48.3	44.1	1.9	(4.1)	3.8				yes		LA
	ME	4	53.6	44.6	50	39	57.5	55.5	1.9	(2.0)	3.8	4	4		yes		ME
	MD	10	55.9	42.9	54	43	55.5	60.0	4.1	4.5	8.1	10	10			yes	MD
	MA	12	61.9	36.8	64	27	70.0	64.8	2.9	(5.2)	5.8	12	12		yes		MA
	MI	17	51.2	47.8	52	45	53.5	54.4	3.2	0.9	6.3	17	17	yes	yes	yes	MI
	MN	10	51.1	47.6	52	44	54.3	55.7	4.7	1.5	9.3	10	10	yes	yes	yes	MN
	MS	6	40.2	59.0	42	51	46.5	45.8	5.7	(0.7)	11.3			yes	yes	yes	MS
	MO	11	46.1	53.3	44	49	48.5	49.0	2.9	0.5	5.8			yes	yes		MO
	MT	3	38.6	59.1	36	57	40.5	37.7	(0.9)	(2.8)	(1.8)						MT
	NE	5	32.7	65.9	32	61	36.5	36.7	4.1	0.2	8.1			yes	yes	yes	NE
	NV	5	47.9	50.5	49	49	49.8	52.9	5.1	3.2	10.1	5	5			yes	NV
	NH	4	50.2	48.9	47	47	50.8	57.0	6.8	6.3	13.6	4	4			yes	NH
	NJ	15	52.9	46.2	50	42	55.3	57.8	4.9	2.5	9.7	15	15		yes	yes	NJ
	NM	5	49.0	49.8	49	49	49.8	52.9	3.9	3.2	7.8	5	5			yes	NM
	NY	31	58.4	40.1	57	39	59.3	64.1	5.7	4.8	11.4	31	31			yes	NY
	NC	15	43.6	56.0	47	50	48.5	49.2	5.7	0.7	11.3			yes	yes	yes	NC
	ND	3	35.5	62.9	35	55	41.8	32.9	(2.6)	(8.9)	(5.2)				yes		ND
	OH	20	48.7	50.8	50	47	51.5	54.2	5.5	2.7	10.9	20	20		yes	yes	OH
	OK	7	34.4	65.6	28	61	35.5	33.5	(1.0)	(2.0)	(1.9)						OK
	OR	7	51.3	47.2	50	44	53.8	53.0	1.7	(0.8)	1.8	7	7	yes	yes		OR
	PA	21	50.9	48.4	50	45	53.0	55.3	4.4	2.3	8.8	21	21		yes	yes	PA
	RI	4	59.4	38.7	56	36	61.3	61.8	2.4	0.5	4.7	4	4	yes			RI
	SC	8	40.9	58.0	42	55	43.5	45.9	5.0	2.4	10.0				yes	yes	SC
	SD	3	38.4	59.9	42	52	45.8	36.3	(2.1)	(9.4)	(4.2)				yes		SD
	TN	11	42.5	56.8	47	50	48.5	42.8	0.3	(5.7)	0.5				yes		TN
	TX	34	38.2	61.1	37	59	39.3	40.6	2.4	1.4	4.8			yes			TX
	UT	5	26.0	71.5	24	69	28.5	29.2	3.2	0.7	6.4			yes	yes	yes	UT
	VT	3	58.9	38.8	53	40	57.5	66.4	7.5	8.9	15.0	3	3			yes	VT
	VA	13	45.5	53.7	47	51	47.8	49.4	4.0	1.7	7.9			yes	yes	yes	VA
	WA	11	52.8	45.6	52	44	54.3	57.0	4.2	2.8	8.4	11	11			yes	WA
	WV	5	43.2	56.1	45	49	48.8	40.3	(2.9)	(8.5)	(5.8)				yes		WV
	WI	10	49.7	49.3	51	44	54.0	52.0	2.4	(2.0)	4.7	10	10	yes	yes		WI
	WY	3	29.1	68.9	29	65	32.8	31.2	2.2	(1.5)	4.3			yes	yes		WY

Election Model -18 National Polls (9RV, 9LV)                       http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm                                                           Sample   Final Poll 2-party projected     75% UVA Projected 5-Poll Moving Average Election Model Date Size Poll Kerry Bush Kerry Bush Diff   Kerry Bush Kerry Bush Diff 18 National Polls Average 1720 Type 47.28 46.89 51.65 48.35 3.31   50.90 48.10 51.25 47.75 3.50                               Zogby 2-Nov 1200 LV 47 48 50.75 49.25 1.50   50.00 49.00 51.25 47.75 3.50 Harris 2-Nov 5508 LV 50 47 52.25 47.75 4.50   51.50 47.50 51.35 47.65 3.70 CBS 1-Nov 1125 RV 46 47 51.25 48.75 2.50   50.50 48.50 51.25 47.75 3.50 TIPP 1-Nov 1284 LV 44 45 52.25 47.75 4.50   51.50 47.50 51.15 47.85 3.30 Econ 1-Nov 2903 RV 49 45 53.50 46.50 7.00   52.75 46.25 51.20 47.80 3.40 Marist 1-Nov 1166 LV 49 48 51.25 48.75 2.50   50.50 48.50 50.85 48.15 2.70 ABC 31-Oct 3511 RV 48 47 51.75 48.25 3.50   51.00 48.00 51.25 47.75 3.50 NBC 31-Oct 1014 LV 47 48 50.75 49.25 1.50   50.00 49.00 51.45 47.55 3.90 Gallup 31-Oct 1866 RV 48 46 52.50 47.50 5.00   51.75 47.25 51.55 47.45 4.10 Dem Corp 31-Oct 1018 LV 48 47 51.75 48.25 3.50   51.00 48.00 51.10 47.90 3.20 FOX 31-Oct 1400 RV 48 45 53.25 46.75 6.50   52.50 46.50 51.05 47.95 3.10 Pew 30-Oct 2408 RV 46 45 52.75 47.25 5.50   52.00 47.00 50.75 48.25 2.50 ARG 30-Oct 1258 LV 49 48 51.25 48.75 2.50   50.50 48.50 49.85 49.15 0.70 Nwk 29-Oct 1005 RV 45 48 50.25 49.75 0.50   49.50 49.50 50.15 48.85 1.30 ICR 26-Oct 817 RV 44 46 51.50 48.50 3.00   50.75 48.25 na na na LAT 24-Oct 1698 RV 48 47 51.75 48.25 3.50   51.00 48.00 na na na Time 21-Oct 803 LV 46 51 48.25 51.75 (3.50)   47.50 51.50 na na na AP 20-Oct 976 LV 49 46 52.75 47.25 5.50   52.00 47.00 na na na

 

 

	2004 Election Calculator
			2000 Recorded							2004 Recorded
		Gore	Bush	Other	Total				Kerry	Bush	Other	Total
		51.004	50.456	3.957	105.417				59.027	62.041	1.225	122.293
		48.38%	47.86%	3.75%					48.27%	50.73%	1.00%
		Uncounted							Uncounted
		5.116	0.000	0.269	5.385				2.588	0.794	0.069	3.450
		95%	0%	5%	4.86%				75%	23%	2%	2.74%
	Uncounted Votes				2000 Voter Share		12:22am	Final
	Percent of votes cast		Census	Uncounted	Kerry	Estimate	NEP	NEP	Sensitivity table:			Start	Increment
	2004	2.74%	125.74	3.45	DNV	57%	57%	54%	Kerry share of new (DNV) voters			53%	2.0%
	2000	4.86%	110.80	5.38	Gore	91%	91%	90%	Kerry share of Gore voters			95%	-2.0%
					Bush	10%	10%	9%	Gore share of uncounted			95%	-10.0%
	2004	Share	2000	Share	Other	64%	64%	71%	Gore voter turnout			91%	2.0%
	Kerry	75%	Gore	75%
	Bush	23%	Bush	0%	Bush
	Other	2%	Nader	5%	DNV	41%	41%	45%		2004 Calculated
					Gore	8%	8%	10%		Kerry	Bush	Other
	2000 Voter Mortality				Bush	90%	90%	91%	Cast	67.03	56.98	1.74
	Total Voters	1.22%			Other	17%	17%	21%	Share	53.31%	45.31%	1.38%
	Gore share	50.37%							Exit Poll	51.80%	47.20%	1.00%
					Other				Switched	5.41	-5.86	0.45
	2000 Voter Turnout in 2004				DNV	2%	2%	1%	Sw. Rate	8.1%	-10.3%	25.6%
	Gore	95%			Gore	1%	1%	0%
	Bush	95%			Bush	0%	0%	0%
	Other	95%			Other	19%	19%	8%
		2000 Recorded								2004 Calculated
	Voted	Recorded	Uncounted	Cast	Deaths	Alive		Turnout	Voted	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other
								DNV	27.91	22.2%	57%	41%	2%
	Gore	51.00	5.12	56.12	2.72	53.40		91%	48.59	38.6%	91%	8%	1%
	Bush	50.46	0.00	50.46	2.48	47.98		95%	45.58	36.2%	10%	90%	0%
	Nader/other	3.96	0.27	4.23	0.21	4.02		91%	3.66	2.9%	64%	17%	19%
	Total	105.42	5.38	110.80	5.41	105.39		97.83	125.74	100%	53.31%	45.31%	1.38%
										125.74	67.03	56.98	1.74
	Press F9 to calculate tables
			Sensitivity Analysis							Sensitivity Analysis
			Kerry National Vote							Kerry National Vote
	Gore share of							Kerry share of
	Uncounted in 2000		Gore Voter Turnout					Gore voters		Share of New voters (DNV in 2000)
	53.3%	91.0%	93.0%	95.0%	97.0%	99.0%		53.3%	53.0%	55.0%	57.0%	59.0%	61.0%
	95.0%	53.3%	53.6%	53.9%	54.2%	54.5%		95.0%	54.0%	54.4%	54.8%	55.2%	55.6%
	85.0%	53.0%	53.3%	53.6%	53.9%	54.1%		93.0%	53.2%	53.6%	54.0%	54.4%	54.8%
	75.0%	52.7%	52.9%	53.2%	53.5%	53.8%		91.0%	52.4%	52.8%	53.2%	53.6%	54.0%
	65.0%	52.3%	52.6%	52.9%	53.2%	53.5%		89.0%	51.6%	52.0%	52.4%	52.8%	53.3%
	55.0%	52.0%	52.3%	52.6%	52.9%	53.1%		87.0%	50.8%	51.2%	51.7%	52.1%	52.5%
			Kerry Margin (millions)							Kerry Margin (millions)
	10.05	91.0%	93.0%	95.0%	97.0%	99.0%		10.05	53.0%	55.0%	57.0%	59.0%	61.0%
	95.0%	10.1	10.8	11.5	12.3	13.0		95.0%	11.8	12.8	13.8	14.9	15.9
	85.0%	9.2	10.0	10.7	11.4	12.2		93.0%	9.8	10.8	11.9	12.9	13.9
	75.0%	8.4	9.1	9.9	10.6	11.3		91.0%	7.8	8.8	9.9	10.9	11.9
	65.0%	7.6	8.3	9.0	9.8	10.5		89.0%	5.8	6.9	7.9	8.9	9.9
	55.0%	6.8	7.5	8.2	8.9	9.6		87.0%	3.8	4.9	5.9	6.9	7.9
			Sensitivity Analysis							Sensitivity Analysis
			Kerry National Vote							Kerry National Vote
	Bush 2000 Voter							Kerry share of
	Turnout in '04		Gore Voter Turnout in '04					Gore voters		Share of Bush voters
	53.3%	91.0%	93.0%	95.0%	97.0%	99.0%		53.3%	8.0%	9.0%	10.0%	11.0%	12.0%
	91.0%	53.4%	53.7%	54.0%	54.3%	54.5%		95.0%	54.1%	54.4%	54.8%	55.2%	55.6%
	93.0%	53.0%	53.3%	53.6%	53.9%	54.2%		93.0%	53.3%	53.7%	54.0%	54.4%	54.8%
	95.0%	52.7%	52.9%	53.2%	53.5%	53.8%		91.0%	52.5%	52.9%	53.2%	53.6%	54.0%
	97.0%	52.3%	52.6%	52.9%	53.2%	53.4%		89.0%	51.7%	52.1%	52.4%	52.8%	53.2%
	99.0%	51.9%	52.2%	52.5%	52.8%	53.1%		87.0%	50.9%	51.3%	51.7%	52.0%	52.4%
			Kerry Margin (millions)							Kerry Margin (millions)
	10.05	91.0%	93.0%	95.0%	97.0%	99.0%		10.05	8.0%	9.0%	10.0%	11.0%	12.0%
	91.0%	10.3	11.0	11.7	12.5	13.2		95.0%	12.0	12.9	13.8	14.8	15.7
	93.0%	9.4	10.1	10.8	11.5	12.3		93.0%	10.0	10.9	11.9	12.8	13.7
	95.0%	8.4	9.1	9.9	10.6	11.3		91.0%	8.0	8.9	9.9	10.8	11.7
	97.0%	7.5	8.2	8.9	9.6	10.4		89.0%	6.0	6.9	7.9	8.8	9.7
	99.0%	6.5	7.3	8.0	8.7	9.4		87.0%	4.0	5.0	5.9	6.8	7.8