| War on Terrorism By Antonio C. Abaya Written Sept. 21, 2004 For the Manila Standard, September 23 issue The third anniversary of the 9/11 attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon came and went without any major terrorist incident around the world. However, a few days earlier, terrorists believed to be from the Jamaah Islamiya had exploded a truck bomb at the Australian Embassy in Jakarta, Indonesia, killing nine Indonesians and wounding more than 180 others. And two weeks earlier, in a bungled situation which may have had nothing to do with al-Qaeda, Chechen and other separatists in the Caucasus region of southern Russia held hostage some 1,200 students, teachers and parents in their school in Beslan. In an unplanned turn of events, a firefight broke out and someone pressed the panic button, setting off explosives affixed to the gym�s roof, which collapsed on the hostages, killing more than 350 of them, half of them schoolchildren. Meanwhile, in Iraq the level of violence has escalated dramatically. The number of attacks against US and Iraqi government targets now average 87 a day, compared to �only� about 30 a year ago. Even the CIA last week has put the future of Iraq between �tenuous stability� and �outright civil war.� The first shots of that three-cornered civil war (between the Shias, the Sunnis and the Kurds) may have been fired last week when two Sunni clerics, said to be negotiators with kidnappers, were assassinated near Baghdad by Shias, and three members of the Peshmerga, the Kurdish militia, were kidnapped and beheaded in the Mosul-Kirkuk area, probably by Sunnis, for collaborating with the Americans In the past 12 days alone, more than 300 Iraqis have been killed in terrorist attacks, and the number of Americans killed in combat in Iraq has passed the 1,000-mark, all except 187 of them since President Bush landed a jet plane on the deck of an aircraft carrier last May and declared the end of all major hostilities. �Mission Accomplished,� proclaimed a huge banner that fluttered from the carrier�s superstructure. These must have been the most famous Famous Last Words in American military history since some general (I think it was Gen. Westmoreland) said he saw �light at the end of the tunnel� just before the Viet Cong Tet Offensive exploded simultaneously in 70 towns and cities in South Vietnam in February 1968. So, one should not ask embarrassing questions like �How goes the war on terrorism?� More realistic would be �What, when and where will the next Big Bang be?� A CNN Special Report last Sept. 18 claims that the al-Qaeda has enough plutonium (weapons-grade by-product from the enrichment of uranium) to make two �suitcase bombs.� Stephen Flynn, identified as a terrorism expert, says a small nuclear bomb can fit in a Coke can.. That may be true, since a nuclear submarine is said to be able to cruise around the world on as little as 20 kilos of nuclear fuel. E=mc square, and all that. But even a small nuclear bomb the size of a Coke can has to be enclosed in a lead casing, otherwise its ambient radioactivity will sicken or kill the carrier before he can get to his intended target. So a would-be nuclear terrorist lugging an ordinary-looking but obviously very heavy suitcase to a subway station or bus depot or airport counter will likely attract suspicion, especially during times of high alert. A Geiger counter could still detect residual radioactivity even when the nuclear device is encased in lead. CNN�s terrorism expert said that a small nuclear bomb the size of a Coke can, detonated in the middle of a big city, can kill 32,000 people from the nuclear explosion, and another 160,000 from the radioactive fallout that follows. And where would al-Qaeda get its fissile or nuclear material? Flynn said the most likely source is North Korea, which operates a nuclear export agency called Bureau 39 in Pyongyang, with a sales office in Macau. Another source, said another expert, Matthew Bunn, would be Russian nuclear stockpiles of HEU or highly enriched uranium. Bunn said there have been 18 known cases of theft from Russian HEU stockpiles, including one batch found on board a train from Prague to Munich. A third source would be Pakistan, which the CNN expert described as the �Wal-Mart of nuclear proliferation.� This was after physicist Dr. A. Q. Khan, known as the Father of Pakistan�s Nuclear Bomb, admitted that he had sold nuclear secrets to Libya and Iran. Dr. Khan is suspected of having ties to Osama bin Laden, but he has not been jailed or otherwise punished because he is a popular national hero. Is all this credible? Probably so. But I am of the opinion that if al-Qaeda hasn�t used it, three years after 9/11, they probably do not have it. This applies not only to suitcase nuclear bombs, but also to sarin nerve gas, smallpox bacteria, anthrax powder, ricin poison, and other biological and chemical weapons which al-Qaeda was feared to possess or about to possess, in the wake of the hysteria after 9/11. I hope I am not proven wrong. More worrisome, in my opinion, would be the so-called dirty bomb or radiological bomb which anyone with a background in engineering or chemistry can put together in his garage, provided he has some radioactive material stolen from an operating nuclear reactor. A dirty bomb is an ordinary explosive device using ordinary dynamite or gunpowder but buried under layers of fluffy material like talcum powder that has been mixed with radioactive material. When the bomb is detonated, the radioactive talcum powder is blown sky high into the air and is spread by prevailing winds over a wide area. The Chernobyl nuclear reactor accident in the Ukraine in 1986 was a chemical, not a nuclear, explosion, said to have been caused by an accumulation of hydrogen gas somewhere which got ignited. The chemical explosion blasted a hole through the reactor wall, allowing radioactivity to escape into the air with the resultant smoke and dust, which reached as far away as France and the Arctic Circle in Finland. Chernobyl was an accidental �dirty bomb.� A dirty bomb will not kill many people but the panic and hysteria from fears of radiation sickness will stampede people out of, say, Manhattan or London, cause hundreds of heart attacks, suicides and vehicular accidents, and ruin an entire national economy. Even an ordinary fertilizer-acid truck bomb, detonated in the middle of, say, the Lincoln Tunnel during rush hour, will asphyxiate hundreds of motorists before they are incinerated, as the fireball consumes all the oxygen in the tunnel. Adding radioactive material to the mix would extend the terror far and wide. I wrote about this in several articles in 2001. CNN�s experts warned that it is not possible to inspect more than a tiny fraction of the millions of containers that enter US ports every year. Terrorists will probably not even try that tack since all ingredients for a dirty bomb or a truck bomb are commercially available in the US, with the exception of the radioactive spike (which can be stolen or smuggled in by courier). Since their success last March in Madrid, in which the incumbent government was defeated at the polls as a direct result of their terrorist acts, al-Qaeda may time their future Big Bangs to influence the results of coming elections: October 9 in Australia (after the warning shot in Jakarta) and in Afghanistan, November 2 in the US, end of January 2005 in Iraq. If there are no spectacular attacks on or before these dates, it would suggest that al-Qaeda have lost their fangs.***** OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO Reactions to �War on Terrorism� Tony, Thats a real scary scenario now in the realm of the probable than the possible. Yes, technology in the hands of the mentally deranged can wreck havoc to our civilization. It makes our home grown terrorists in the Senate (those in dire need of cerebral liposuction for their bloated egos) look like angels. If and when those grim prospects of nuclear devices becomes real in the hands of the fanatics then there will be no population problem to worry at all as this world will probably just re-set itself for a new breed of specie glowing in the dark! The question is: How far can sanity be sustained by world leaders and policy makers including ours to prevent a total meltdown of our civilization? Positively, how can technology itself can be harnessed to put back the genie in the bottle. Or perhaps there is sense in turning to God. You do believe there is one don't you? After all I don't think we are just a result of some cosmic accident. Keep well Tony! Ed J.T.Tirona (Mang Senyong in our e-forum) [email protected] September 24, 2004 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww --- "Antonio C. Abaya" <[email protected]> wrote: ...Since their success last March in Madrid, in which the incumbent government was defeated at the polls as a direct result of their terrorist acts, al-Qaeda may time their future Big Bangs to influence the results of coming elections: October 9 in Australia (after the warning shot in Jakarta) and in Afghanistan, November 2 in the US, end of January 2005 in Iraq. Ogie: Tony, relative to the above, have you written a piece on why there were no big bangs prior to our 2004 elections? That would be interesting to read. Ogie Reyes, [email protected] September 24, 2004 MY REPLY. With only 51 soldiers-policemen doing �humanitarian work� in Iraq, the Philippines was an insignificant player, too insignificant to merit a Big Bang. Besides, the challenger, FPJ, had no discernible position on Iraq (or any anything else, for that matter.) wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww In a message dated 9/23/04 8:43:14 AM Pacific Daylight Time, [email protected] writes: Subj: War on Terrorism Date: 9/23/04 8:43:14 AM Pacific Daylight Time From: [email protected] (Antonio C. Abaya) To: "Undisclosed-Recipient:;"@mnl.zpdee.net War on Terrorism By Antonio C. Abaya Written Sept. 21, 2004 For the Manila Standard, September 23 issue The third anniversary of the 9/11 attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon came and went without any major terrorist incident around the world. However, a few days earlier, terrorists believed to be from the Jamaah Islamiya had exploded a truck bomb at the Australian Embassy in Jakarta, Indonesia, killing nine Indonesians and wounding more than 180 others. Pepeton contributes: Indeed. I have blood relatives who live a block or so from where the explosion took place, barely a mile (1.6 km) away. The bombing incident caught the attention of the international media, but only in passing. In CNN, in the USA, no more than a "subscript" telenews was given the tragedy. One of my relatives is a "bridge aficionado" and is rather well-known among the "diplomatic corps" who are themselves bridge aficionados. They were playing at a friends home when the bombing took place, about two or three blocks from their "game den". They heard about it. They listened. Talked about it for a while. Tea and crumpets were brought out. Then they continued to play again. "Two, spades." "Pass." "Two, no trump." Pass. The consensus seems to be - "It's not as big as the one in Bali. These terrorists are gloating over the media attention they have been getting. You go after them, without media. In anonymity...they will disband and self-destruct, in ignominy. -----------------------------o0o---------------------- And two weeks earlier, in a bungled situation which may have had nothing to do with al-Qaeda, Chechen and other separatists in the Caucasus region of southern Russia held hostage some 1,200 students, teachers and parents in their school in Beslan. In an unplanned turn of events, a firefight broke out and someone pressed the panic button, setting off explosives affixed to the gym�s roof, which collapsed on the hostages, killing more than 350 of them, half of them schoolchildren. Pepeton questions the facts: These are the facts reported. But we know from human experience how UNRELIABLE "eyewitness reportages" have been, in time of FEAR and PANIC. Add to this, the determined efforts on the part of the Russian administration of Putin to "control" their media, specially with regard to this other unfortunate event. I have read several accounts and have seen TV coverages of this "Chechen conflict". The latest is, that the so-called "separatists" are deemed terrorists. And who is to question that this heinous and senseless act of killing, particularly of children is not in and of itself a "terroristic act of the worst possible and imaginable barbarism"???? Latest count also of fatalities has gone up to over 400 (425). Who knows, really, what caused the "panic" and whose bullets killed more innocent lives? One conclusion we can draw for sure. This incident is an eye-opener for Russia. It exposes their sheer unpreparedness in handling acts of domestic violence in this magnitude. And that terrorism is, in fact, UNIVERSAL and GLOBAL. -------------------------------o0o--------------- Meanwhile, in Iraq the level of violence has escalated dramatically. The number of attacks against US and Iraqi government targets now average 87 a day, compared to �only� about 30 a year ago. Even the CIA last week has put the future of Iraq between �tenuous stability� and �outright civil war.� Pepeton cautions: Let us be careful not to take things or events out of context here. And let us take heed that we do not "misunderstand" the description of the "state-of-affairs" in Iraq. Fair and balance reporting, remember? More than the alleged "dramatic escalation of attacks" that has been claimed, there has been tremendous progress in the citizenry's realization and acceptance of the rules and responsibilities for democracy. OF COURSE, MEDIA DOES NOT REPORT THIS, does it? As a matter of fact, I post this as a challenge. Which media has been consistent and factual in reporting the progress of democracy in Iraq? The answer is NONE. But common sense and logic would strongly suggest that there must have been. Unless anyone is willing to assume that there has been absolutely no progress attained since the ouster of Saddam and the demolition of his armies. What are these achievements? Who are charged with the responsibility for reporting these? Are these important to report and account for? Of course, these are. The pluses and the minuses ought to be weigh against each other, ALL THE TIME, specially in (analytical) JOURNALISM, of the intelligent and professional, and OBJECTIVE, fair and balance, kind. I have a better source than CIA for a "more reliable warning" of how long and dreary the war against terrorism is going to be. President George W. Bush, himself, on September 12, 2001, at the White House regrettably and fearfully warned "...the war on terrorism is going to be a long one...." So, what is new about what CIA is claiming, now? CIA whose "lack of forthrightness in sharing human intelligence" has been blamed by others involved in the national security of the USA, as one of the causes that hampered the ability of the USA to respond more effectively and efficiently during the critical moments of the 9/11 tragedy. (See the "9/11 Commission Report"). The credibility of the CIA has been severely tarnished and that is why a new NSA (National Security Agency) has been established that will oversee all matters relative to national security, and coordinate all intelligence activities by all 15 or more intelligence and national security units througout the country. That is why Potter Gosh appointment has been approved. --------------------------o0o------------------ The first shots of that three-cornered civil war (between the Shias, the Sunnis and the Kurds) may have been fired last week when two Sunni clerics, said to be negotiators with kidnappers, were assassinated near Baghdad by Shias, and three members of the Peshmerga, the Kurdish militia, were kidnapped and beheaded in the Mosul-Kirkuk area, probably by Sunnis, for collaborating with the Americans Pepeton rejects speculative meanderings: The Shias and the Sunnis do not need "another incident" to go at each other. Their irreconcileable differences in religous and political beliefs are integral and inherent in their respective societies and cultures, that it did not take Osama Bin Ladin much effort to twist and manipulate their mindsets about "jihad", "fatwa", and rhetorics of "(violent) islamic fundamentalism." And, on top of all these, throw in the "Kurds" who dared forge the two warring groups/denominations under their own supremacy. Tony, what you just mentioned here is what I personally object to in "speculative reporting". It serves no valid humanitarian purpose. But create a political groundswell. It "justifies" the role of the fucking terrortists, and unwittingly, you are putting the blame on the Americans...so let me pursue that, but briefly with the question: ------------------------------- "And supposing the Americans did not invade Iraq, would kidnapping and murders by the terrorists stop? Have not occurred at all? If the USA were not as vigilant about protecting democracy, outside of their shores, can you reassure each and every American in the USA and abroad, that they will never be the object of hatred and violence by the terrorists? Finally, can you cite specifically, what the USA did to the *islamic fundamentalists* that provoked them to bomb the WTC on 9/11?" Please note: the attack on the WTC on 9/11 has been traced to PLANS going back 10 years ago. I would be interested to see your responses to these questions, within this specific factual context. -----------------------------o0o--------------------- In the past 12 days alone, more than 300 Iraqis have been killed in terrorist attacks, and the number of Americans killed in combat in Iraq has passed the 1,000-mark, all except 187 of them since President Bush landed a jet plane on the deck of an aircraft carrier last May and declared the end of all major hostilities. �Mission Accomplished,� proclaimed a huge banner that fluttered from the carrier�s superstructure. -----------------------------o0o--------------------- Pepeton: So what? Every human life that is lost is a tragedy. Let me repeat that for emphasis. Every human life that is wasted is tragic. Lives are lost everyday. In war, that is a given. Every effort must be exerted to minimize lost of life, specially during a war conflict. To suggest or imply that any leader would take this lightly or not at all, is to mislead the public into believing that, in this case, GWB wilfully, knowingly, deliberately, and MALICIOUSLY is pursuing the war in Iraq for reasons other than the one he has repeatedly pronounced: democracy for Iraq and victory over terrorism in that part of the world, and others. Let's talk about the LIVES LOST IN THE PHILIPPINES, because of violent activities in Mindanao and throughout Luzon and the Visayas. Can you provide a running count of how many lives have been lost in the hands of "islamic fundamentalists" in the Philippines? When you provide this input, will you also, please, cite your authority. Who is counting and keeping track of this, in the Philippines? Does anybody care? Let's talk about the LIVES LOST IN THE PHILIPPINES, because of MALNUTRITION and STARVATION. Let's just limit it to the current year. Do you think there has been less than 1,000, more than 1,000, or just about 1,000 PILIPINO LIVES, men, women and yessss CHILDREN lost, because the government, society, the citizens themselves failed, or forgot, or denied this economic failing is tantamount to economic TERRORISM of the worst kind? In context, always, in context, please. ------------------------o0o---------------------------- These must have been the most famous Famous Last Words in American military history since some general (I think it was Gen. Westmoreland) said he saw �light at the end of the tunnel� just before the Viet Cong Tet Offensive exploded simultaneously in 70 towns and cities in South Vietnam in February 1968. So, one should not ask embarrassing questions like �How goes the war on terrorism?� More realistic would be �What, when and where will the next Big Bang be?� Pepeton replies categorically and with conviction: There will be no BIG BANG...from the terrorist, if we continue to pursue their defeat as aggressively and unrelentlessly as GWB and the USA has been doing. Personally, I say, NAKATSAMBA LANG ANG MGA WALANGHIYANG TERRORISTA. To a measureable extent, because the USA had become, a big, sassy, overconfident, "know-it-all", "been there, done that" society and government. That is why. But very few will accept or admit this reason for the "success" of a group of barbaric, desperate, hungry-for-attention, islamic fundamentalists, in levelling the twin tower in NY. Not all the aborted attempts of other terrorists to try and duplicate 9/11 in the USA have been reported in detail, because of security reasons. And the USA, was shocked into realizing...they can't afford to stay "fat and sassy", indolent and overconfident. And the daily struggle in Iraq serves to remind them..."it ain't over, till the fat lady says it's over." Just like the attack of Japan on Pearl Harbor, that likewise, caught the USA - nonchalant and unprepared, the only time a perpetrator against the USA can inflict a significant harm and damage is when it is able to commit such atrocities - BY SURPRISE....yes, like Pearl Harbor, yes, like the Twin Tower; the USS Cole....And now that the lion has awaken and snapped out of its own induced stupor, it would be next to impossible for terrorists to launch another SURPRISE ATTACK on the USA. But no member of media will write this type of SPECULATIVE REPORTING, huh? Why? Because the more saleable propaganda topics are those that circumferentially talk about the FEAR OF TERRORIS...its awesomeness, its deplorability, its inevitability. It is easier to POLITICIZE terroristic events and sell these as news of the day. Here is one simple fact about TERRORISM. It takes MONEY to organize and launch a terroristic campaign. So, once we figure out the sources of these fundings, and cut their flow to the terrorist's al qaeda enclaves...we would have crippled more than half of the ability of the terrorists to continue with their operations. As for the much bruited and touted..."readiness and willingness" of the islamic fundamentalists to give up their own lives for the cause of their religious convictions...while I do not deny, that there are "fanatic diedhards blindly following heretics", I would say their number is "much over-rated". No thanks to (hollywood-style) media. ---------------------------o0o------------------------------ A CNN Special Report last Sept. 18 claims that the al-Qaeda has enough plutonium (weapons-grade by-product from the enrichment of uranium) to make two �suitcase bombs.� Pepeton challenges: Please to qualify your CNN Special Report. Who in CNN. Experience and purpose of the report. Who are their resource persons? Have you done your own due diligence and read the entire report? Wouldn't you RATHER do this before citing and using this as a (reliable) source for your analysis???? Hellllowwww Dan. He is the only person in the USA, who is still insisting that the documents that was given to him "may still be authentic." In his latest statement, (after he admitted his fault and apologized), he recanted: "I cannot vouch that the documents are authentic. Therefore, I should not have used these. That does not mean the documents are not authentic. I just cannot verify, if these are. I am sorry I used them....." Still later, "I am not responsible for the authenticity or non-authenticity of the documents. The documents were simply handed to me...and I just read them....I had nothing to do with them...." Now, tell me, if you will - what do you really think of Dan Rathers as a broadcast journalist and political interviewer and newscaster? And do you think he should be held accountable? ---------------------------- Stephen Flynn, identified as a terrorism expert, says a small nuclear bomb can fit in a Coke can.. That may be true, since a nuclear submarine is said to be able to cruise around the world on as little as 20 kilos of nuclear fuel. E=mc square, and all that. But even a small nuclear bomb the size of a Coke can has to be enclosed in a lead casing, otherwise its ambient radioactivity will sicken or kill the carrier before he can get to his intended target. Pepeton pursues the idea suggested: You are opening a "can of imponderables" with this citation. Prove that a "a nuclear bomb in a Coke can has to be enclosed in a lead casing" so that its carrier will not be exposed to its radioactivity. You don't know that. Neither do I. But now that you have written it so...my question is, prove it. I am not going to accept your word for it, because you have no established reputation for being an expert and authority on the subject of radioactivity. Yet, you write about it as if it is a "matter of factly common knowledge that you need lead (and only lead??? and how much lead???) to prevent radioactivity exposure. But obviously, this is not the point you are making. You are evidently trying to make another point, that depends on this truism...let's see. ------------------o0o--------------- So a would-be nuclear terrorist lugging an ordinary-looking but obviously very heavy suitcase to a subway station or bus depot or airport counter will likely attract suspicion, especially during times of high alert. A Geiger counter could still detect residual radioactivity even when the nuclear device is encased in lead. Pepeton recaps and concludes: There you go. I was right, wasn't I? Now you are getting deeper into the subject of radioactivity and nuclear bomb. CNN�s terrorism expert said that a small nuclear bomb the size of a Coke can, detonated in the middle of a big city, can kill 32,000 people from the nuclear explosion, and another 160,000 from the radioactive fallout that follows. And where would al-Qaeda get its fissile or nuclear material? Flynn said the most likely source is North Korea, which operates a nuclear export agency called Bureau 39 in Pyongyang, with a sales office in Macau. Another source, said another expert, Matthew Bunn, would be Russian nuclear stockpiles of HEU or highly enriched uranium. Bunn said there have been 18 known cases of theft from Russian HEU stockpiles, including one batch found on board a train from Prague to Munich. A third source would be Pakistan, which the CNN expert described as the �Wal-Mart of nuclear proliferation.� This was after physicist Dr. A. O. Khan, known as the Father of Pakistan�s Nuclear Bomb, admitted that he had sold nuclear secrets to Libya and Iran. Dr. Khan is suspected of having ties to Osama bin Laden, but he has not been jailed or otherwise punished because he is a popular national hero. ==================== Pepeton submits: Hearsay. ==================== Is all this credible? Probably so. But I am of the opinion that if al-Qaeda hasn�t used it, three years after 9/11, they probably do not have it. This applies not only to suitcase nuclear bombs, but also to sarin nerve gas, smallpox bacteria, anthrax powder, ricin poison, and other biological and chemical weapons which al-Qaeda was feared to possess or about to possess, in the wake of the hysteria after 9/11. I hope I am not proven wrong. Pepeton agrees but qualifies: This is good. Thanks for clarifying your position. My personal guess is that they have some but just haven't been able to plan and plot as to when or how much of it to use, to optimize damage or draw attention to their "packaged invincibility". I do not believe the terrorists of islamic fundamentalists variety are all as "omnipresent" and invincible as media has portrayed them to be. I still will not give these characters any rating higher than those of "syndicated hoodlums of the underworld". Pierced of their ideological buffonery - these "terrorists" have their own prices: some pecuniarily estimable; others are lured by the promise of fame and power. ------------------------------------o0o----------------------- More worrisome, in my opinion, would be the so-called dirty bomb or radiological bomb which anyone with a background in engineering or chemistry can put together in his garage, provided he has some radioactive material stolen from an operating nuclear reactor. Pepeton suggests: Not that easy. Not that simple. And this is the kind of "subliminal suggestion" that one ought not to write about without restraint. For it serves no humanitarian purpose, nor civilized objective. The thought that "it's so easy to make a dirty bomb, any stupid fool can do it..." suggests implicitly a challenge - "can you?" Rather than the more desireable - "are you"? -----------------------o0o------------------------------ A dirty bomb is an ordinary explosive device using ordinary dynamite or gunpowder but buried under layers of fluffy material like talcum powder that has been mixed with radioactive material. When the bomb is detonated, the radioactive talcum powder is blown sky high into the air and is spread by prevailing winds over a wide area. ============= Pepeton asks: What is your point in providing a recipe for making dirty bombs, Tony? ============== The Chernobyl nuclear reactor accident in the Ukraine in 1986 was a chemical, not a nuclear, explosion, said to have been caused by an accumulation of hydrogen gas somewhere which got ignited. The chemical explosion blasted a hole through the reactor wall, allowing radioactivity to escape into the air with the resultant smoke and dust, which reached as far away as France and the Arctic Circle in Finland. Chernobyl was an accidental �dirty bomb.� Pepeton questions: You are talking way over my head. I don't know that REAL experts in the business of bomb making, nuclear physicists, alike will necessary accept your theoretical explanations, or not. ======================== A dirty bomb will not kill many people but the panic and hysteria from fears of radiation sickness will stampede people out of, say, Manhattan or London, cause hundreds of heart attacks, suicides and vehicular accidents, and ruin an entire national economy. ====================== Pepeton catches on: This is speculation based on your characterization of what causes panic of the size and magnitude that you have described. Put this scene in the context of Metro Manila, in stead of London and Manhattan. Can you describe the nature/type of "panic" that will likely occur? ======================= Even an ordinary fertilizer-acid truck bomb, detonated in the middle of, say, the Lincoln Tunnel during rush hour, will asphyxiate hundreds of motorists before they are incinerated, as the fireball consumes all the oxygen in the tunnel. Adding radioactive material to the mix would extend the terror far and wide. I wrote about this in several articles in 2001. ================== Pepeton pursues: And how many incidents such as the one you just described have actually happened that we can use as referral for the accuracy of your analysis? ====================== CNN�s experts warned that it is not possible to inspect more than a tiny fraction of the millions of containers that enter US ports every year. Terrorists will probably not even try that tack since all ingredients for a dirty bomb or a truck bomb are commercially available in the US, with the exception of the radioactive spike (which can be stolen or smuggled in by courier). ================= Pepeton challenges: CNN is in the business of "selling news". CNN does not produce "bomb experts", as far as I know. Who are these? Can you site the specific incident where the "radioactive spike" has been stolen or smuggled"? By whom? Caught? Conclusion? --------------o0o--------------------- Since their success last March in Madrid, in which the incumbent government was defeated at the polls as a direct result of their terrorist acts, al-Qaeda may time their future Big Bangs to influence the results of coming elections: October 9 in Australia (after the warning shot in Jakarta) and in Afghanistan, November 2 in the US, end of January 2005 in Iraq. Pepeton the sage: I can do the same thing, Tony. I can make a prediction that there will be absolutely no such incidence, because terrorists are unpredictable as to their intent and irascibility. This type of mindsetting is the product of media's own propaganda....BEWARE. And GWB is going to be re-elected. He already has 306 Electoral Colleges that have pledged support against Longface's 212. But media will continue to report the election race as if it is one of the CLOSEST RACE, ever. I want to look at the faces, to see how ruddy red they will be, when the results of the election belie all their sensational attempts at making the election in November 2, 2004, unpredictable and exciting. Hohummmm. And I don't even care for Bush. Just as I also didn't (and still don't) care for GMA. He who owns the gold - rules. Longface does not have enough, because his commander in chief is holding him to their pre-nups. "Show me victory, and I will give you more." Heinz ketchap? No. Thank you. I prefer Mafran Banana. Pepeton, [email protected] September 24, 2004 If there are no spectacular attacks on or before these dates, it would suggest that al-Qaeda have lost their fangs.***** OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO |
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