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| The US Loves Erap? By Antonio C. Abaya Written Sept. 25, 2005 For the Standard Today, September 27 issue In my article titled �Replacing GMA� (June 14, 2005), I had written the following: �Having unwittingly violated certain priorities of the neo-conservative cabal in power in Washington DC, on matters dealing with the Middle East, China and Southeast Asia (as stated in September 2000 in the mission statement of the Project for the New American Century or PNAC), President Arroyo is being thrown to the wolves. �Her sins: withdrawing from the Coalition of the Willing in Iraq, signing a deal with the Chinese for the joint exploration for oil in the Spratlys (the Americans would like to keep the oil for themselves or, at the very least, deny it to their future strategic enemy, China), and failure to dismantle the alleged Jemaah Islamiyah training camps in Mindanao. In the neo-con universe, there is no forgiveness for these sins, only eternal damnation.� (In addition, last November 2004, the Heritage Foundation, one of the three think tanks that advise the neo-con Republican government of President George W. Bush, called President Arroyo �the weakest leader in Southeast Asia.�) Wrote I: �And the favored replacement, as far as I can tell, may be � horrors! � Joseph Estrada, with Fidel Ramos a poor second. Why? Because when he was in power, Erap waged total war against the Abu Sayyaf and the MILF in Mindanao, celebrating his troops� victory by giving away jeeploads of lechon and beer, in a deliberate affront to Muslim sensibilities (about pork and alcohol). �The neo-cons just love that kind of macho, no-questions-asked militancy against al-Qaeda-linked terrorists. Erap would have made an ideal jail warden at Abu Ghraib or Guantanamo prison. Becoming president, again, of the Philippines would be the next best job for him.� That�s what I wrote on June 14, 2005. Read what an unnamed senior US policy maker at the US Embassy wrote to his superiors in Washington in a three-page report dated July 30, 2005, as reported in the September 24, 2005 issue of the Philippine Daily Inquirer. The PDI story follows: Should President Macapagal-Arroyo be compelled to step down in the face of questions on the legitimacy of her administration, who does �a senior US policy maker� think is �the most direct and legally acceptable, potential successor?� Ousted President Joseph Estrada, �a popular opposition figure and who continues to receive broad public support,� according to an �informal assessment� dated July 30 and prepared by the unnamed policy-maker. The three-page report of the US Embassy in Manila also said �most political observers� viewed Ms. Arroyo as �a weak, reactive leader whose technocratic leanings, oligarchic upbringing, overbearing personal style, and inability to connect with ordinary Filipinos� had kept her popularity ratings low �in a country that reveres outgoing personalities.� The report added that Ms. Arroyo�s victory in the 2004 election was �tainted with credible rumors of corruption and vote-buying, leaving her legitimacy once again in question�.� This has weakened her �ability to function effectively in a personality-based political culture,� it said. The US government appeared so interested in Estrada that the embassy prepared a profile of him dated August 26, (2005) and included in it a Malaysian official�s expression of concern over peace in Mindanao if the ousted President were to take over from Ms. Arroyo. �Malaysian External Intelligence Organization (MEIO) director general Othman bin Abdul Razak was aware that his comments would reach the US government and may have been meant to influence as well as inform,� said the profile on Estrada, which was prepared by a certain Hadley. It added: �In late July 2005, commenting on the political difficulties being faced by [Arroyo]�Othman stated that if Arroyo lost power, her departure would be detrimental to the ongoing peace process with the MILF, if Estrada assumed the presidency.� The profile contained Estrada�s background as a movie actor and his pro-poor program. More importantly for the Americans, it also contained his policies that were in line with the US agenda in the region. (Emphasis mine. ACA.) It included Estrada�s support for the ratification of the RP-US Visiting Forces Agreement, and the all-out war against the separatist MILF and the extremist Abu Sayyaf in Mindanao. (Emphasis mine. ACA.) End of excerpts from the PDI. And what is the US agenda in the region? The PNAC mission statement referred to above calls for stronger US forces in Southeast Asia, no doubt as a counterfoil to the Jamaah Islamiyah, which seeks to establish a Pan-Islamic state that will incorporate the territories of Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore and parts of southern Thailand and southern Philippines. A reader of this column recently called my attention to US activities in Saranggani Island, south of Mindanao. I told him this was consistent with US activities in Basilan, Sulu and Gen. Santos City, which, as I explained in my article �Why the Americans are in Basilan and Sulu� (June 06, 2002), are meant to establish listening posts and jump-off bases in the south just in case it became necessary to launch pre-emptive strikes against the JI in Indonesia and Malaysia. Former UP President Jose Abueva�s advocacy of federalism would play into these US plans since it would be easier to get the consent of the Christian majority in Mindanao, who are generally pro-American and anti-Muslim, than that of Imperial Manila, where uncompromising nationalism, fanned by the anti-American communists, is the fashion. As a corollary to federalism, independence for Mindanao would be an option that the Americans would support if push comes to shove in a disintegrating Philippines. This may be another reason why Norberto Gonzales signed that contract with Venable LLP to get US Congressional financial support for charter change here, which includes a shift to the federal structure of government. Federalism, eventually Mindanao independence, would be favorable to US strategic interests. So I was right in my reading of American intentions about Presidents Arroyo and Estrada. This would be bad news for the middle class who are hoping for the emergence of a moral alternative to the amoral, even immoral, incumbent. If the alternative favored by the Americans is a criminally inclined ignoramus, then this country is doomed to institutionalized criminality and corruption, as well as to perpetual and escalating war as the macho Erap, with American encouragement, unleashes the dogs of war against the Muslims in Mindanao, and the Muslims retaliate by bringing the war to Metro Manila. The recently departed (for Cambodia) US charge d�affaires Joseph Mussomeli may have been prophetic when he warned that Mindanao could become the next Afghanistan. And, he could have added, Metro Manila could become the next Baghdad, if his superiors, the neo-cons in Washington, succeed in foisting Erap, again, on this unfortunate country. It is significant that Erap�s chief lieutenant, Boy Morales, has been summoned to Washington at least twice, first in November 2004, then in March 2005. That the Americans look with favor on Erap as the successor to President Arroyo is also bad news for the communists and communist sympathizers, who are allied with his trapos in the Unity for Truth and Justice coalition that seeks to establish an extra-constitutional, revolutionary junta to replace President Arroyo, with Renato de Villa as front man and willing dupe. The communists and communist sympathizers supported Erap during the debate over the future of the US bases in 1990-91, when Erap affected a nationalist anti-bases posture. When he came president in 1998, he named several of them to key government positions: Dodong Nemenzo to UP, Leonor Briones to the national treasury, Karina David to housing, Ed de la Torre to TESDA, and, of course, Boy Morales to agrarian reform. But how can the communists and communist sympathizers now eat on the same table, or be in the same room, with the newly designated Amboy, Erap, who would wage, again, total war on the Muslims if the neo-cons in Washington had their way? The basic incoherence of the more aptly named Disunity for Truth and Justice, made up of forces pulling in opposite directions, with front man Renato de Villa unable to tell which side is left or right, is spelling the doom for this motley opposition group. Their last street rally in Makati last Sept.16, which had been billed to attract 50,000 attendees, drew only 5,000-6,000, as non-trapo and non-communist icons Susan Roces and Cory Aquino correctly stayed away. Left all by themselves, the Erap trapos and their communist and pro-communist allies are as attractive to the middle-class as an army of lepers. That should tell something to the Americans about their Amboy, Erap. And if their chief promoter, Makati Mayor Jejomar Binay, who faces charges of unexplained wealth at the Ombudsman, is arrested this week as rumored, that could well be the end of his dabble in �revolution,� after which he should go back to collecting his city�s garbage. Ironically, the main beneficiary of all this is President Arroyo, whom both the Americans and the middle class want to discard, for different reasons, but who remains in the saddle because � as far as the middle class are concerned - of the perceived absence of a viable alternative. Is this country really so morally bankrupt? Can the US Embassy and their superiors in Washington be convinced of the flaws in their thinking? It�s not impossible. In 1992, US Embassy analysts were convinced, and they said so in a written report to Washington, that then House Speaker Ramon Mitra was the likely winner in the May presidential elections. I think I was able to convince them that it was going to be a contest between Fidel Ramos and Miriam Defensor-Santiago, which is what it turned out to be. ***** Reactions to [email protected] or fax 824-7642. Other articles in www.tapatt.org. OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO Reactions to �The US Loves Erap?� Tony � You wrote: �Former UP President Jose Abueva�s advocacy of federalism would play into these US plans since it would be easier to get the consent of the Christian majority in Mindanao, who are generally pro-American and anti-Muslim, than that of Imperial Manila, where uncompromising nationalism, fanned by the anti-American communists, is the fashion.� The consistently anti-Muslim area, per our surveys, is the Visayas, not Mindanao. Mahar Mangahas, [email protected] Social Weather Stations September 27, 2005 MY REPLY. My gut feel, Mahar, is that anti-Muslim sentiment is nationwide, a legacy of Spanish and American colonial rule. It just varies in degree from region to region. For purposes of this article, I was not interested in the anti-Muslim sentiments in Luzon and the Visayas, only in those in Mindanao where, according to surveys by your SWS or Pulse Asia, support for Erap�s �total war� against the Muslim separatists enjoyed wide, even majority, support among the Christians there. wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Most of what you are trying to spread is pure bunk. Your facts are wrong and so are your statements. Jerry Lames, [email protected] September 27, 2005 MY REPLY. Such as������? The rules of civilized debate dictate that a reactor specifies the items that he or she is disputing so that the proponent can rebut him or her point by point. wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww In your article of Sept. 25th, you appear to say that we should not fight the Abu nor the JI . You further insinuate that we should not have the Americans on our side to help as they have in Basilan. Do you therefore espouse the philosophy that RP should join with the Muslim Right that want to take over South East Asia and for that matter the world? Do you also therefore support their terrorist acts all over the world? Best regards, Tony, Charles B. �Guy� Rodriguez, [email protected] Sydney, Australia, September 28, 2005 MY REPLY. The best way to answer your non-sequitur questions is to reply with my own non-sequitur question: Do you really think the Americans are not capable of making mistakes and wrong decisions? wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww No, the Americans do not love Erap. Otherwise, why would they allow the midget to take over in 2001? (If the Americans do not �love� Erap, why have they summoned his chief lieutenant to Washington at least twice in four months? And why has the US Embassy in Manila prepared a three-page profile of Erap for the benefit of their superiors in DC? In 2001, the Americans did not know if the midget was going to be better or worse than Erap. Now they know the midget cannot be trusted to serve US interests. ACA) Now, is the time for Filipinos to show that bravery and valor shown by their compatriots over a hundred years ago---remove an oppressor without US meddling in their affairs! For me, Gloria M. Arroyo has to go. To say that she is indispensable is fallacious and an insult to the mentality of Filipinos who should not be saddled with this mediocre economist. Instead, they should send her in fact to the mental hospital for suffering from some kind of illusion of grandeur. I am very religious myself, but when someone in position like the midget talks of St. Michael or to the picture of her dead father, who was no saint, you know that something is wrong in his/her head. So, why should Filipinos be made to wait for 2010 to remove this fake president, who should have been disqualified for admitting that she called up a Comelec official in violation of a Philippine law? Where I come from, she could have been dead by now. No, not by assassination, etc. but by self-destruction, but then unlike people here, this nincompoop is not just a cheat, a fraud, but terribly and unbelievably shameless. In Filipino modern lingo, "Kapalmuks!" GLORIA, ALIS KA NA DIYAN! Yuko Takei, [email protected] Tokyo, Japan September 28, 2005 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Dear Mr. Abaya, I am an appreciative recipient of your periodic email, and generally agree with your insightful views. But I must wonder why you would want to devote an entire email to the question of whether the US loves Erap! Who cares? (We should care, because if the Americans succeed in restoring Erap to the presidency, he would most likely resume his �total war� against the Muslims � which is why they favor him, in the first place � which means Mindanao and possibly Metro Manila will once again erupt in violence. ACA) We don't really care who Bush thinks should succeed Gloria. Would the US be interested in who WE think should succeed him if he gets impeached over the Iraq war? (It doesn�t quite work out that way in the real world, where the opinions of the powerful often carry more weight then the opinions of the powerless. ACA) Jose C. Valdes, [email protected] Baguio City, September 29, 2005 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Dear Mr. Abaya, I read every article you write (which are sent to my email) and I am impressed with your intelligent discussion of national issues. Please continue writing until we rediscover ourselves as a nation. More power to you and God bless. Lidenilo Lumanglas, [email protected] September 29, 2005 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Sir: I have great respect for your biting wit and brutal honesty. Your article on Erap as the new American poster boy may, at first sight, seem absurd. But it ultimately makes sense. Erap has the easygoing ways and the un-intimidating mental attributes that would fit in perfectly with the rednecks and the good ole' boys of the Republican Right. Lechon and beer meet pork rinds and moonshine. I also agree that, unlike Manila, people in Mindanao are less ideologically compromised. But it is unfair to equate that with holding pro-American or anti-Islamic sentiments. Most Christians in Mindanao are not anti-American and, indeed, have nothing but contempt for the rabid nationalism of the Left. But they are not blindly pro-American either. Most Christians in Mindanao are wary of Islamic fundamentalism. But this does not translate into being anti-Muslim, because most Muslims also have no taste for the rigid intolerance of the fundamentalists. While I agree with your statement that "independence for Mindanao would be an option for Americans to support if push comes to shove in a disintegrating Philippines", I believe that would be a judgment call for the Americans to make at the proper time. Should they decide on that option, it would be, to my mind, good judgment on their part. Mindanao does have more to offer than a "disintegrating Philippines". To start with, most of Mindanao is out of the typhoon belt. It can offer safe, deep all-weather harbors for large vessels. And vast flatlands for aircraft. The waters near or around Mindanao and Sulu are important sea lanes for cargo ships and oil tankers. Japan, Singapore, China, Australia and even the U.S. rely heavily on these routes for trade and oil supplies. It would certainly be to the Americans' interests to police these waters. It is an extremely inviting target, not just for pirates, but for terrorists as well. And, on top of those dangers, China is making its presence felt in the area. Besides being an ideal base for securing critical sea lanes, Mindanao can produce important resources for the U.S. and her allies. The Sulu seas and the marshes around Maguindanao are potential sources of oil and gas. Agriculture and fisheries are rich and varied. Food is abundant. Cheap energy can be tapped from hydro and volcanic resources. There are large mineral resources. And protecting the island is easier than securing the vast coastline stretching from Aparri to Jolo. But to the people of Mindanao, the U.S. concerns are not that important. Mindanao has its own concerns, and those are what are important. Mindanao would like to see better governance and services. Mindanao would like to have more development and infrastructures. Mindanao would like to have a more decentralized government that is more attuned to its needs. If the Americans can guarantee those, and do not interfere in day-to-day affairs, I do believe the people of Mindanao will welcome independence with open arms. They never had those things under the Philippine government. The Philippine government is too absorbed with its own problems to even care about Mindanao. The self-centered attitude of the national government, and the people in the Manila, can be gleaned from your own words. There is more concern that "the Muslims retaliate by bringing the war to Metro Manila" than unleashing "the dogs of war against Muslims in Mindanao". The dogs of war were long ago unleashed by Erap's idol, Ferdinand Marcos. Thousands have already died. Untold suffering and displacement have occurred. Mindanao has suffered enough, yet the people of Manila would rather be in denial. As long as they only read about the war on terrorism in the papers, all is well for them. The people in Manila are more worried that "Metro Manila could become the next Baghdad". Never mind if "Mindanao could become the next Afghanistan". Can the people of Mindanao, therefore, be blamed for wanting to determine their own destiny? Very truly yours, Juan Deiparine, [email protected] Toril, Davao City, October 03, 2005 OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO |