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| ON THE OTHER HAND |
| Staring into the Abyss
By Antonio C. Abaya Written on Aug. 6, 2008 For the Standard Today, August 7 issue. Are we staring into the abyss? I was invited by Irene 'Inday' Santiago to be one of the speakers in a two-day forum organized by her Mindanao Commission on Women in Davao City last June. The topic assigned to me was "What the Country Faces in 2010." Unable to fly to Davao, because I, a widower, had been committed to baby-sit my 8-month old granddaughter while all my three children were abroad, Inday decided to tape my speech here, for replay during the forum in Davao. In that speech, I painted a worst case scenario and a best case scenario. In the worst case scenario, I cited the then unabated increase in the prices of oil and food, and the possibility of a wider war in the Middle East as Israel and its neo-con allies in Washington DC, led by George W. Bush and VP Dick Cheney, bomb the nuclear facilities of Iran before the US presidential elections on November 4 (to present a possible liberal winner, Barack Obama, with a fait accompli that he would not be able to squeeze back into toothpaste tube.) A wider war in the Middle East would force the return home of hundreds of thousands of Filipino contract workers as their employers cease or reduce operations.. I also cited that the inflation rate (9.6% at the time) would continue to rise. (It is now 12.2%, one month later, the highest in 17 years.) And the Bangko Sentral would not be able to do much to tame it because most of the pressures are external. Then I added another element: "a resumption of the war in Mindanao and Sulu as radical elements in the Moro Islamic Liberation Front and the Abu Sayyaf raise the ante by making demands on the Manila government that they know the Manila government cannot accede to�." This triple whammy � a wider war in the Middle East, continued increase in the prices of oil and food, and a resumption of the war in Mindanao and Sulu � would stretch the resources of the Philippine government and would encourage calls for either martial law or a military takeover�. "President Arroyo would respond positively to a call for martial law, whether the causes are real or manufactured. It would be in keeping with her desire to remain in power beyond 2010. President Marcos used martial law in 1972 to remain in power, as his second non-extendable presidential term was about to expire in 1973�� I continued: "But there would also be the possibility of a military takeover on or before 2010, precisely to prevent President Arroyo from staying in power beyond 2010�� "In both scenarios � martial law by President Arroyo or military takeover, on or before 2010, Congress would be abolished, civil and political rights would be suspended, and there would be no presidential elections in 2010�"�.. In my best case scenario, there is no wider war in the Middle East and there is no resumption of the war in Mindanao and Sulu. The prices of oil and food stabilize or at least rise only moderately. There is no forced repatriation of Filipino workers abroad, and there is no pronounced rise in criminality. So there would be no credible reason to declare martial law. "But President Arroyo would continue her maneuvers to remain in power beyond 2010, either as prime minister, if we switch to the parliamentary system; or as president without term limits, if we retain the presidential system�." And the proof of this is the parallel moves to shift to the parliamentary system (led by Albay Gov. Joey Salceda, since Feb, 11) and to the federal form of government (led by Sen. Nene Pimental, since early June), the latter specifically targeted by Pimentel to take place before the end of President Arroyo's term and specifically designed by Pimentel to be brought about through a constituent assembly in which the Kampi/Lakas juggernaut would overwhelm any opposition from the Senate. . I concluded: "So even under my best case scenario, I do not think there will be presidential elections in 2010�..It will be GMA all the way�" That was the gist of my speech before Inday Santiago's Mindanao Commission on Women in Davao City last June 24. In the past ten days or so, the resumption of hostilities in Mindanao and Sulu, which was an ingredient in my worst case scenario above, has suddenly become a very real possibility. This is because of the wide public outrage that has met the signing of a memorandum of agreement (MOA) in Kuala Lumpur, scheduled yesterday (Aug. 5) between negotiators from the Government of the Republic of the Philippines (GRP) and the MILF. The MOA gives to the MILF 712 additional barangays in five provinces (including Palawan) over and above the six provinces already in the existing Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao (ARMM), which would now constitute the ancestral domain of the Bangsamoro, to be called the Bangsamoro Juridical Entity (BJE), eventually the Bangsamoro Federal State in a Philippine federal union. A three-color map on the front page of the Philippine Daily Inquirer (August 6) shows that the projected BJE would be larger than the area of the present ARMM by about 30-35 percent. Unknown to most people, because it is not discussed in media, is something called "Special Intervention Areas" (SIA) which are "conflict-affected areas outside the BJE which shall be the subject of special socio-economic and cultural affirmative action implemented by the Central Government (read: Manila) pending the conduct of a plebiscite not earlier than 25 years from the signing��" Presumably after Gloria Arroyo has been succeeded to the presidency by Mikey Arroyo. The SIA would enlarge the BJE-ARMM area by about 100 percent, including about 80 percent of Zamboanga del Norte and Zamboanga del Sur, plus parts of Compostela Valley, Davao Oriental and Sarangani, and about one fourth of Palawan. Taken together (in 25 years?), the ARMM-BJE-SIA federalized ancestral domain of the Bangsamoro would cover about 40 to 45 percent of the total land area of Mindanao; plus all of Sulu, Tawi-Tawi and Basilan; plus about one fourth of Palawan Which should warm the cockles of Sen. Pimentel and his federalist confederates as their dream of a federal union moves closer to realization. But the stupid GRP panel forgot to give away the Greenhills Shopping Center, the R. Hidalgo neighborhood in Quiapo, and the Makati Cinema Square, for which the MILF should rightfully file a protest with the Organization of Islamic Conference.. Will the Roman Catholic bishops now continue to support GMA (Gloria Mahmoud-Arroyo), just because she stands with them in rejecting artificial methods of birth control? . The signing of the MOA has been stopped by a temporary restraining order (TRO) from the Supreme Court, sought by local (Christian) government officials in Zamboanga City, Iligan City and North Cotabato province, who complain that they were not consulted prior to the initialing of this MOA last July 27 and who feel they have been betrayed by the Arroyo government by consigning them without their consent to the Sharia jurisdiction of the BJE. The local government officials have now been supported by members of the Lower House (led by Rep. Teddy Locsin) and the Senate (led by Senators Mar Roxas and Chiz Escudero), some of whom believe � as I do - that this sell-out in Mindanao is part of the maneuver of President Arroyo to remain in power beyond 2010 (which I have been repeatedly alluding to in this space since 2005). The GRP panel, led by Gen. Hermogenes Esperon, assures the MILF that it will have its federal state soon, but that it has to abide by the constitutional processes, including a plebiscite, congressional approval and charter change... The MILF panel, led by Ghadzali Jaafar, insists that the unpublicized initialing of the MOA last July 27 makes the agreement a done deal and binding to the GRP, even if it is not yet formally signed. In this and in previous columns, I have written that in negotiations like this, when one party wants to terminate the "peace talks" but wants to blame the other party for the collapse of the talks, it will make demands that it knows the other party cannot meet. We seem to be reaching that point of impasse and we are staring into the abyss. ***** Reactions to [email protected]. More articles in www.tapatt.org and in acabaya.blogspot.com. . To subscribe, send as blank email with the subject heading Subscribe. To unsubscribe, send a blank email with the subject heading Unsubscribe. OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO Reactions to "Staring into the Abyss" More Reactions to "Federal Snake Oil" More Reactions to "Artificial Methods of Debate" More Reactions to "Air Car from India" Tony, Is there a way we can convert your great perceptions into something workable so that things as you perceive may not happen to an already hapless nation? Using this forum, can we make task force of caring individuals to work with peers and friends within their respective home provinces back home so we may be able to counter vested political disinformation campaigns and manipulations designed to benefit selfish and greedy ends at the expense of the many. This seems easier to attain than every one understanding the broader terms of our daily exchanges and not be able to do some tangible details. I believe peers and people in our respective provinces would be easier to educate and influnce on issues such as is being discussed daily. Majority of the country side being informed may help change the whole national landscape to effect much needed reforms carried thru an informed grassroots or citizenry. Regional organization all over can be utilized towards initiatives of this kind. God bless us all. Jose Balmadrid, (by email), Aug. 06, 2008 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Maybe it is high time for the Filipino people to rise up and hopefully to be joined by the military and police in toppling down this IMMORAL and ILLIGITIMATE President. The current CS of the AFP Gen. Alexander Yano will soon retire and God save us when Gloria Arroyo picks the "Emperor" Maj Gen Bangit as the successor who is a full pledge certified stooge of the Arroyos. Narciso Ner, (by email), Davao City, Aug. 07, 2008 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Our government now seems to be running a carnival of sorts. Trying to fool everyone with its antics. Ooops, How about the Maharlika Village in Taguig? The MILF might want it as well. I still cross my fingers that with Divine Intervention, the evil will suffer. Ernie Dellosa, (by email), Aug. 07, 2008 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Tony, The so called "Done Deal" proclaimed by the MILF characterizes their appreciation of official agreements, and their torching of homes in "their Mindanao domain" is an example of their respect for others and a sample of how they would run things if they had their own run of things in the Philippines. However, worse yet their behavior would create a virtual civil war here as the non-Moslem families torched in the South would have retaliation in the North against Moslems in the North. R. Stager, (by email), Quezon City, Aug. 07, 2008 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Hi Tony. Here is my take. When Barack Obama is elected, US involvement in Iraq will diminish. Oil production in Iraq will accelerate. As the country rebuilds itself, Iraq will need the services of foreign workers and the Philippines will surely benefit from it. Israel is a threat to the security of the Middle East.. Its policy to go after Iran and its unfriendly neighbors will keep the peace in the Middle East elusive. The USA should put Israel on a short leash if peace is to be desired. Israel is an undeclared nuclear power. Iran understands that and it has to protect itself too. Arabs have the oil but the Jews have no oil but destructive weapons of war! Dr. Nestor Baylan, (by email), New York City, Aug. 07, 2008 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Thanks for this article. Sharp! AL Jose Leonidas, (by email), Aug. 07, 2008 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Dear Tony, You certainly have a negative mental attitude. Even your best scenario is still on the negative. Why can't you have a best scenario where there will be elections held in 2010; a very qualified person will be elected; canvassing will be automated; there will be peace in Mindanao; global economy will be bullish again after Obama gets elected as President. Of course, knowing you, you will always say that I am dreaming. (So how does a Pollyanna mind like yours interpret the two continuing efforts to amend the Constitution? One led by Gov. Joey Salcedo since Feb. 11, to switch to parliamentary; the other led by Sen. Nene Pimentel since June, to switch to federal? And how does Pollyanna see the specs of Pimentel, that the switch to federalism must occur before the end of President Arroyo's term � uncannily similar to the agreement between Esperon and the MILF - and that it must be done through a constituent assembly, in which the Lakas/Kampi majority would overwhelm any objections from the Senate? ACA) Well let us see what happens in 2010 and see who of us will be correct. Cheers! Bobby Tordesillas, (by email), Aug. 07, 2008 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Re: Staring into the abyss? They can either happen or both (your scenarios). Here's my take about the deal�. GRP give away too much in that so-called Bangsamoro deal in such a way that it can never happen. The additional 712 additional barangays in five provinces (including Palawan) is a bluff! The inclusion of 712 barangays is even shady. Of course, people will revolt and reject such inclusion. It is most probably included to have widespread rejection from the Filipino people. So it will look like RP government is pushing as the good side while people (who reject) are the bad ones. How can the non-Muslim majority in Mindanao agree to be under Bangsamoro or Sharia Law? Autonomous region is not really Muslim majority. It just sounds like a Muslim force due to use of force by some Muslim Manchurians publicized on T.V. The old autonomous region is enough� but still not all constituents agree on that (as state) either. Full control? Wow! Very scary. Former Senator Maceda is so correct on what he thinks about the Bangsamoro state. It is really a suicidal pact. MILF generals/leaders are undisciplined and illiterate, all they know is to lead for war and that's it� and one tiny argument, mortars right away. C'mon, imagine that when they have too advanced military equipment and ammunition more than what they really have right now. War is imminent and of course, possible sprout of a new Islamic country in Southeast Asia. So, it has been widely known that Philippines is the Israel of southeast Asia� and so if this assumptions are real (state with full control power), historians will be busy publishing like this: "The tiny yet military-capable Bangsamoro nation is the new Allah's Mecca in southeast Asia". Fast track it to 5-10 years, they can invade GRP very easily if they want to. Imagine the free route of terrorists from Mindanao seas to Malaysia to Indonesia. And guess what, legal or illegal entry in this new maritime territory is legal for Allah's brothers. And so, they gain another legal terrorist training facilities. And GRP can't do anything about it. We'll be like the new India and Pakistan � archipelago style. Man, we have too much troubles already today, adding this, is another b*tch! If I'm the president? I will ask Cheney to zero in and mark all MILF bases and simultaneously bomb them. I don't believe that military can't track them. Like Israel style, no publicity, just do it and hush hush like Iraq and the most current one in Syria. No Bangsamoro. Period. But the GRP should start doing big projects there. These areas are the poorest and illiterate. Can you imagine if MILF leaders (with its forces) have the brains of CPP-NPA? Back to topic� overall, yes, staring into the abyss! LF, [email protected], Aug. 08, 2008 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Mr Abaya, I can't believe your three children left with you an 8-month old granddaughter to babysit! I have a 10-month old granddaughter and I can't volunteer to babysit her even just for a day. Good luck to you! As for the abyss...I can't believe that our leaders would sacrifice us to their ambitions. But then, that's been the case since leaders, whether emperors, kings, presidents, prime ministers and the like, discovered that the perks of power make everything worthwhile, at least from their point of view. May God help us. Ethel, [email protected], Aug. 08, 2008 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Based on the statements of Secretaries Dureza and Esperon, it is obvious that this government is just taking the MILF for a ride for Gloria Arroyo�s pogi points. This could result in a more agitated and angry MILF. Also, many Muslim communities cropped up when Christians left the area due to peace and order condition and/or being unproductive. They cannot be considered as ancestral domain. Actually, if we look back at history, only the indigenous tribes can claim ancestral domain in the main island of Mindanao. Those living in coastal areas were converted to Islam after being subjugated by Muslims from Indonesia. Of course we know what happened when the Spaniards came. I was born and raised in Mindanao, and way back in 1969 when I first wore the Army uniform, Muslims were already complaining of neglect and it is no secret that those who greatly benefited from the national government were the local politicians who pocketed the money. There can never be lasting peace in Mindanao unless poverty and basic services are addressed and firearms taken away. This government of Gloria Arroyo should be reminded that the MILF is a breakaway faction of the MNLF. The former is more radical in the sense that it wanted a complete separation from the Republic of the Philippines and form an Islamic state, compared to the MNLF which settled for autonomy. Narciso Limsiaco Ner, (by email), Davao City, Aug. 08, 2008 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Thank you Tony. As in previous tainted deals entered into, again our government tried to rush a MOA that had yet to be completely cleared of any unconstitutionality or cleansed of provisions disadvantageous to the people, specifically in the areas covered. Many believe that the urgency of the Leadership's motives made the Panel a bit reckless, careless (some friends use "foolish" or "cold blooded") by disregarding correct process and conscious fairness to the very people they say they want to bring peace to. Sadly, it takes a supposedly courageous and patriotic former General to lead such a project that abdicates rather than win (or achieve a win-win goal) and therefore get embarrassed for failing to deliver what the other side expected. It was a typical "wow mali" episode. Due to a number of exposed "deals" and projects where "tongpats" was rampant, the people in general seem paranoid about every major move that government takes. The secrecy and haste and seemingly shoddy legal research and analysis that they have based the MOA on seem to arouse suspicions once more. It is of course easier for the Panel members and their few supporters to speak of "peace" objectives and their procedures, because their paradigm is coming from a life of not having grown up in the areas where the protesting Christians have lived all their lives, as a population majority of almost 97% I can estimate that they could make the Mindanawons and Muslims take the risks for the future - because it is not their place anyway and they have no plans of raising their children there. The recent "occupation" therefore by the MILF of these areas speak clearly of what they are capable of and this should warn the government that you do not, in haste, mess around with the Muslims. They are warriors that you must always respect, for your own sake. But they are also like us, Christians. There are hotheads, hawks, doves, good, bad, and some do ugly things - exactly the same way Christians do. They have not exactly been a bad people. But they have learned from us some unholy tricks of modern life. And many of them have been exploited and denied the opportunities by christians in the guise of partnerships, development, modernization, fishing . If therefore there is a hidden agenda much lesser than the PEACE that they say they want for Zzamboanguenos, Visayans, Ilokanos, Ilongos, Tausugs, Maranaos, Badjaos, Samal, etc...then government should think twice and awaken their conscience. You should not mess with the conflicts to further political ambitions of any group or person. The price can be so immensely and immeasurably painful for those who live in those areas. Let a charter change, federalism, or what-have-you go through the honest-to-goodness constitutional process. From the looks of contracts or deals under the shadow of scandals and then this haste and cunning ways to the MOA, it becomes a bit more obvious that there is indeed a hidden master plan as sinister as in the period prior to martial law of the late dictator FM. No wonder that more and more people raise the analogy with Marcos. Perhaps the General has become tired of fighting and negotiating and would rather give everything away to avoid confrontation. I do not think there would be a problem about that - so long as the task of choosing the kind of government system is shared with the citizenry in a manner that the constitution provides, and in a manner that involves the local governments, and not in this way. Fictional or exaggerated the character may have been, but Mel Gibson's "Patriot" should be required reading for the General and his staff. Victor Manalac, (by email), Aug. 11, 2008 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Hello Kuya Tony C. Abaya, I have this reactions to this 'Mindanao' problem. For one reason among many others, it is all politicians' fault, elected and appointed. They practiced 'regional discriminations' all the time. Mindanao for one has been subjected to such discriminations for long a time. Our fundamental law at present is not even balanced with regards to 'proper representations' in the legislative body. I guess our leaders have just aggravatedly exploited this faults to its present extremes. Improper handling of simple governance will likely result in so many bad consequences just like what is happening now in the south of our country. We really don't have 'race discriminations' like that in the United States. But we surely have 'regional discriminations' here. That is what is wrong with our governments ever since. To solve this problem will demand a total overhaul of the political structure of the present system of government. Are we ready for that before Yr 2010? I doubt we are. The tendency of actions now by our leaders is just to shift to another form of political federal system of government which we even don't have any idea about it. Abandoning the present presidential-type of government, as erroneously believed by many as not good for us is, simply a 'lazy' reaction of not knowing what to do with our lives. Only God knows what we will expect next in the months and years to come. This writing space of yours Kuya Tony is very effective to spread the word around: PILIPINOS GISING ! Thanks, Kuya Tony. God Bless You. Leona Guerra, (by email), Australia, Aug. 12, 2008 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww. More Reactions to "Federal Snake Oil" I heard Joey Lina's radio interview of Nene Pimentel. It was an eye-opener. 20-80 sharing of National Taxes? Wow. It could be the solution to our woes. Except for one thing. Why amend the Constitution for it? Why create more Senators, Congressmen, States, etc. It would only mean added red tape and expenses. Regional groupings are unwieldy and invites fragmentation. Why not use the present LGU set-up? All needed mechanisms for smooth operations are there. It needs only strengthening to cope with added responsibilities. Federalism is a formula for disaster. Local autonomy is the real thing. Why? Because it can deliver all the benefits promised by federalism, without the unnecessary costs and. With it, we can bid good bye to our dependence on loans, and say hello to self-reliance. We can stand on our own resources. How? Think about it. Eustaquio Joven, (by email), Aug. 04, 2008 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww The good senator from Mindanao, Aquilino Pimentel stated that the terms and conditions of his resolution on Federalism are clear in coverage: the existing ARMM going into Federal State of the Bangsamoro. He further stated that there is no provision in his resolution regarding extension in office of Gloria Arroyo. Correct me if I am wrong, but it is just a resolution which will still be deliberated when the Constitutional Assembly is convened and there will be other resolutions some coming from both Upper and Lower Houses stooges of Malacanang. Since the Con-Ass is the convening of the two Houses, guess whose resolution will prevail? The Congressmen are overwhelmingly in favor of a parliamentary form of government and with the Senators outnumbered, it is hands down that Gloria Arroyo will become Prime Minister as she will surely win at her district in Pampanga together with her cabal of Congressmen in their respective areas where they have control. There is also the questionable integrity of the Comelec. Even if the resolution of Pimentel will prevail, it will not be a solution to the poverty and the delivery of basic services to the Muslim population because the same people in power will be sitting. Look at Zaldy Ampatuan, the ARMM governor. It is very glaring on how he enriched himself with his humongous mansion dwarfing the huts of the Muslims as shown on TV and news photos. He has other mansions including one at Juna subdivision in the city of Davao. This week's ARMM election will result to an Ampatuan victory because he has the money to buy votes, the goons and guns to terrorize those who cannot be bought and the machinery to make things work. Narciso Limsiaco Ner, (by email), Davao City, Aug. 13, 2008 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww More Reactions to "Artificial Methods of Debate"(July 01, 2008) Dear Mr. Tony Abaya, I forwarded your article to our egroup and this is the reaction of one our members. I hope you read it and be informed. Art Novenario, (by email), Aug.07, 2008 (I read it and was not informed or enlightened. ACA) Hi, Art. Thanks for the article. I read it, and would like to make some comments: The article is based on several misunderstandings of the nature of Catholicism and the Church. For instance, it's incorrect to say that the doctrine of papal infallibility was adopted in 1870. The bishops of the Church, assembled in the first Vatican Council in that year, put in writing a statement of a doctrine that had been recognized by some Catholics, particularly some theologians, for well more than a thousand years. A more correct statement of the reality is to say that the doctrine was definitively proposed by the magisterium of the Church at that time. (Words, words, words. ACA) The main premise of the article is that theologians will have to intervene in the debate over Humanae Vitae in order to settle the question of the morality of artificial contraception. This is an erroneous premise, because it is not theologians who define doctrine in the Church � it is the magisterium, which is vested exclusively in the Pope, and the bishops acting collectively. (So what happens when the Pope makes a mistake? Some non-human thing called magisterium, which never makes a mistake, is to blame? You are preaching to the converted and to the faithful, not to the world at large, who do not recognize your invisible and faceless magisterium. ACA) The article contains another fallacy in stating that the use of Natural Family Planning, violates the Church's teaching that it is sinful to use artificial contraception. This is false, and it is directly contradicted in Humanae Vitae, itself, in section 16: "If therefore there are well-grounded reasons for spacing births, arising from the physical or psychological condition of husband or wife, or from external circumstances, the Church teaches that married people may then take advantage of the natural cycles immanent in the reproductive system and engage in marital intercourse only during those times that are infertile, thus controlling birth in a way which does not in the least offend the moral principles which We have just explained." It is difficult to understand why the article criticizes Humanae Vitae for teaching a doctrine that anyone who reads the document can see it does not teach. The article goes on to state that this supposed teaching is infallible � even though it doesn't exist. (It was not I who criticized the Humanae Vitae. It was presumably devout Roman Catholics who did. ACA) The article mentions that on July 28 of this year some 60 Roman Catholic organizations signed an open letter calling on Pope Benedict to reverse the Vatican 's opposition to contraception. It does not mention that the list of signatories was largely made up of groups which support abortion, the ordination of women priests, and the position that homosexual sex is not sinful. As the Vatican noted at the time, these are not representative of the Catholic faithful. (So why doesn't the Church do a survey on who how many Roman Catholics favor artificial methods of birth control, the ordination of women priest, the acceptability of homosexuals, etc. Oh, I forgot, the Church is NOT a democracy. But has it ever occurred to you that you and people like you may be out of sync with your own members? In secular society, when a law is ignored or disobeyed by most citizens, it becomes a dead law and is removed by another law from the statute books, or is simply ignored. ACA) The article goes on to state that Pope Paul VI rejected the report of a commission he and his predecessor John XXIII had appointed to study the question of contraception because of a split vote among the members of the commission. This is not so. The sinfulness of artificial contraception had already been infallibly stated by Pope Pius XI in 1930 in his encyclical Casti Connubii, "On Christian Marriage." The purpose of Humanae Vitae was to settle the question of whether the contraceptive pill, which had not yet been invented when Casti Connubii was issued, was an artificial contraceptive or not, and also to put to rest any notion that its invention could bring about any change in the Church's constant teaching through the centuries that artificial contraception is sinful. These facts are documented in the book Humanae Vitae e Infallibilit� : il Concilio, Paolo VI e Giovanni Paolo II, by Ermenegildo Lio, O.F.M. Published in Vatican City by Libreria Editrice Vaticana, the Vatican Publishing House, in 1986. Fr. Lio received a hand-calligraphed, personally signed note of thanks for this work from Pope John Paul II. (Still, the commission voted in 1968 by an overwhelming majority that artificial methods of birth control was not intrinsically evil, no matter what Pope Pius XI believed in 1930. Doesn't that mean anything to the Church? Oh, I forgot, the magisterium. ACA) The article quotes Cardinal Leo Joseph Suenens, who questioned "whether moral theology took sufficient account of scientific progress, which can help determine what is according to nature." This raises a most important point. The contraceptive pill as currently formulated, and all other existing hormonal contraceptives, whether injected, implanted, suppositories or trans-dermal patches, routinely cause early abortions in their users because of the phenomenon of breakthrough ovulation and conception, which occurs about once every ten monthly cycles for a woman who has frequent sexual relations. Because these contraceptives cause changes in the endometrium, the lining of the uterus, in a way that makes it impossible for the newly conceived baby to implant, hormonal contraceptives cause the baby's expulsion from the uterus, and death. These same hormonal contraceptives are also officially classified as known carcinogens by the World Health Organization. Moreover, Depo-Provera, the most commonly used injectible contraceptive, makes women more susceptible to sexually transmitted infections. Thus the question of what is according to nature is far more than adequately settled in favor of hormonal contraceptives, the ones Cardinal Suenens was speaking about, not being "according to nature." The same considerations apply to the IUD, except that this is probably the only way it works, unlike hormonal contraceptives which also suppress ovulation. (You do not mention the condom, which is by far the most popular birth control device. Predominantly Roman Catholic Brazil produces 250 million condoms a year and distributes them for free to adults among its 190 million population. Predominantly Roman Catholic Poland produces 60 million condoms a year and distributes them for free to adults among its 38 million population. What does the magisterium say about those facts? ACA) The article brings up the Galileo affair for the purpose of showing that the Church can be wrong. The author states that "This is no different from (the Church's) insistence for centuries that the Earth was the center of the universe, even after Nicholas Copernicus, Galileo Galilei and Giordano Bruno showed that the Earth and other planets revolved around the Sun." This is a simplistic and erroneous criticism which ignores the fact that Copernicus himself was a Catholic cleric. (I knew that, but it does not change the fact that he challenged a long-held tenet of the Church. ACA) At the time of Galileo, the Jesuit astronomers, who were among the foremost astronomers of the day, were initially more in favor of Copernicus than Galileo. Galileo's condemnation for heresy was the result of lengthy, complex scientific, theological, philosophical and personal battles that many books have been written about, and involved other issues beyond cosmology. It is as irrelevant to the question of the morality of artificial contraception as it is to any other moral teaching of the Church. (Of course, it is relevant, because it underlines the fact that the Church does make mistakes, contrary to its claim that it doesn't. ACA) The article concludes with a quote from the author stating "Perhaps 350-400 years from now, when the global population reaches 100 billion, another pope will also admit the Church's mistake on birth control and apologize for it." This statement show a complete disconnect with reality, as all demographers now agree that the world's population will never, even in the distantly foreseeable future, reach more than ten billion, and most believe it will not reach even that number. Moreover, when it does reach its peak sometime in the latter half of this century, it will begin to fall at a high rate, because there will be far too few children born to sustain the population. Even before this begins to happen, the reduction in population growth rates will lead to extremely serious economic problems across the world. (At present, the global population is increasing at about one percent every year, almost all the increase happening among Black Africans and Muslims, plus some Catholics in Central America and the Philippines. Without even compounding annually, at one percent per annum, global population doubles every 100 years. So seven billion people now will be 14 billion in 2108, 28 billion in 2208, etc the increase being mostly among Black Africans and Muslims. How do you think will this increase subside except by mass starvation, diseases, wars, which by your standards are less evil than condoms? ACA) To put it briefly, there will be no way to support all the elderly with so few people of working age to provide for them. China alone will soon have 300 hundred million elderly with no means of support. It's a reasonable bet that many of them will eventually die of malnutrition, or the diseases it encourages, since many of them will live on the land but be too old to farm, and have no pension benefits � and the two children they had left for the cities and never came back. This is a scenario that will play out here in the Philippines as well, especially if the Reproductive Health bill, which will promote contraception in every barangay in the country and to children in schools, passes. In fact, it will happen even if the bill doesn't pass. The average number of children born to each Filipina in her lifetime was 7 in 1960. It is now just about at the replacement level of 2.1, so without any further change the population will eventually stabilize, albeit at a level higher than it is today. (Due to the availability of birth control methods, not because couples are abstaining from sex. ACA) However, the number of children born per Filipina is still headed down � even without the Reproductive Health bill. One day in the not-too-distant future we are going to be seriously pondering where both our workers and consumers to sustain economic activity will come from � and there won't be any answer: no country in the world that has fallen below replacement level of reproduction in the absence or war or famine has yet climbed back above it. (The Scandinavian countries have reversed their population decline by offering generous cash incentives to families that have two or more children. But this is not the same as encouraging their people to irresponsibly multiply like rabbits. It is social engineering, in which artificial methods of birth control still play a significant role. ACA) This leads to another important point. According to Lant H. Pritchett, writing in the authoritative academic journal, Population and Development Review � which is published on behalf of the Population Council, one of the foremost advocates of artificial contraception in the world � contraceptives do not play a very important role in fertility reduction, accounting for less than 5% of the massive reduction in fertility that occurred in the 20th century. (This is pure guesswork in support of a pre-determined conclusion. To be credible, he should do a survey on what percentage of couples use which methods of birth control. ACA) Much more important are urbanization, education and employment for women, and later age of marriage related to these � the average age of marriage in the Philippines in 1960 was 14. (These are the social conditions which make small families necessary. They do not say what methods the couples use to have smaller families. The two are not one and the same thing. ACA) That is why Philippine fertility has fallen as it has even in the absence of a high level of contraceptive usage, just as it did in the first part of the 20th century in Europe , before contraceptives were common. But while contraceptives are not very effective at lowering fertility, they are extremely effective at breaking up families and societies. One need only look at the immense familial and social pathologies of the developed world to see this. They have also led to legalization and acceptance of abortion in every single country where contraceptives have become generally accepted. (This is like blaming the automobile for accidental deaths on the streets, arguing that they should therefore be banned. ACA.) This is because of their ineffectiveness in practice: half of all unintended pregnancies in both France and the U.S. , to use them as examples, occur to women who are using contraception. Abortion becomes a logical and necessary next step for women to whom this occurs, since contraception has taught them that unwanted children are an infringement on their rights in the first place. I hope this information will be of some use. God bless! Tim Laws [email protected] , Aug. 04, 2008 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Tony, On the debate on birth control, it is quite clear that birth control through artificial intervention as being promoted by the government is like propagating mass murder because human life commences not from the moment of birth outside the womb of the woman but right in the conception when the human life is formed inside the womb of the woman. The rights of the fetus as a living being is already ingrained when he/she begins the process of life. The state is obligated to uphold human life in its most basic fundamental beginning. Life is not formed after birth. Life is formed upon conceptualization. Abortion tantamount to manslaughter. Mass murder can not be policy of any civilized state or government. Vic del Fierro Jr., (by email), Aug. 10, 2008) (If it is indeed "quite clear" to you that artificial methods of birth control are equivalent to "mass murder," why don't you file murder charges against hundreds of millions of Roman Catholics who use condoms. See how many judges around the world will agree with you that using condoms is equivalent to murder. ACA) wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Dear Mr. Abaya, A certain Mr. Alcasid was reacting to you and said it was like comparing Apples and Oranges ? HELLO ? Astronomy and Biology are not Sciences ? maybe he forgot his General Science subjects way back in his elementary school days...This is the major flaw of the Church, they lack basic Science. Auggie Surtida, (by email), Tigbauan, Iloilo, Aug. 11, 2008 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww More Reactions to "Air Car from India" (July 24, 2008) Tony, It might help if you may dig deeper in this other Air Car from Australia. Its engine is much simpler than the Guy Negre Air car. http://www.engineair.com.au/ Marlowe Camello, (by email), Aug. 04, 2008 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Tony, There is a renewable energy company in British Columbia, Canada; who seems to have a stalled power deal with the Philippine government. The whole idea they seem to be presenting them with, seems to be awfully good for the whole of the Philipinnes. If you get a minute to look over their web-site, maybe you might be able to push some buttons to get things back on track? www.bluenergy.com Cheers! Mitch Gingras, (by email), Ottawa, Canada, Aug. 07, 2008 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Hi, Tony - Christo and Kim were classmates at the Kennedy School (public policy) and since graduation, Christo has been part of the state department team working on the Kyoto Protocol. As a Democrat, he described his job as "swimming against the Republican undertow" in terms of global warming policy. Anyhow, I forwarded your article to him and here is his response. Our next cars will definitely be hybrids. Gas at $4/gallon is still "cheaper" than a large Starbuck mocha. I am so impressed with Christo's tagalog - had no idea he even knew any words! Cayo Marschner (by email), Moraga, CA, Aug. 11, 2008 Hey Cayo - Magandang balita po ito. Air cars are being tried in different areas, but have limited range and power right now. Air is essentially a battery in a different form - a way of storing energy. I think it is good to have a race between different technologies, to see which can reduce emissions best and most quickly! I think that different countries will take different approaches that work best with their national circumstances, culture, etc. In the U.S., size and power are a big draw, and although that is changing a little, it will always be like struggling against the river flow. I think efficiency and technology revolution (first to hybrid-electric, then to electric or fuel cells) is the path for the U.S. In cities, we may see a small is beautiful approach, but mostly related to parking woes, and certainly not in the suburbs and rural areas! My two cents, Christo OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO Reactions to [email protected]. Tony on YouTube on www.tapatt.org. To subscribe, send a blank email with the subject heading Subscribe To unsubscribe, send a blank email with the subject heading Unsubscribe. |