| Sour Grapes � A Growth Industry By Antonio C. Abaya May 04, 2004 Barring a last-minute political assassination, or a catastrophic terrorist attack on the scale of 9/11 or Madrid, or another �spontaneous� coup d�etat by your friendly neighborhood fascists � none of which has a high probability of happening now � the May 10 elections are going to proceed as scheduled . And the results of the presidential and vice-presidential races are now predictable, having been tracked every month, even twice a month, since November 2003, by the two most reputable and respected public opinion polling organizations in this country, Pulse Asia and Social Weather Stations (SWS). In the latest Pulse Asia survey, conducted nationwide with 1,800 respondents from April 26 to 29, President Arroyo got 37% of the votes; FPJ 31%; Lacson 11%; Roco 7%; and Brother Eddie 5%; with 9% still undecided. An impressive 40%-or- more win for President Arroyo is within the realm of possibility. And those who will gloat that it means 60% of the electorate rejected her would just be sour-graping and displaying their ignorance of electoral politics. In 1998, Joseph Estrada won with a plurality of 39%. In 1992, Fidel Ramos� plurality was even thinner: 26%. In 1986, Corazon Aquino actually lost to Marcos in the (rigged) snap elections but was installed in power by an extra-constitutional process. It can therefore be argued that Aquino, Ramos and Estrada were all �rejected� by majorities of the voters. In multi-party elections with three or more candidates, as we have, it is near-impossible for any candidate to win an absolute majority. That is why in similar, multi-party systems in Europe, Russia and some South American countries, there is a run-off or second round election in which only the top two contenders battle it out. The idea is to produce a leader who is supported by a clear majority of the voting population, so that there will be little or no sour graping. Why do we not have a run-off or second round election in our multi-party system? Ask the geniuses who drafted the 1987 Constitution. While you�re at it, ask them also why they scheduled our elections in the month of May, the hottest, most unbearable and most unpleasant month of the year in these latitudes. Public opinion surveys were conducted in Philippine elections even before martial law, but it was in 1992 that they started to figure prominently in the ever-changing public perception of the candidates. It is amazing, however, that up to now some people, including some candidates themselves � usually those who do not do well in the surveys � disparage the ability of surveys to feel the public pulse accurately from samplings of only 1,200 or 1,800 respondents. Ping Lacson, for example, does not believe that he is good for only 11 or 12 points, as the Pulse Asia and SWS surveys have been showing since January. He claims that the warm and enthusiastic reception he has been getting everywhere proves, to him, that he is going to win, and win big, on May 10. And apparently he is not just psyching himself and his followers. He has actually gone to the extent of parading before media two or three �witnesses� who testified to an alleged deliberate plot by the survey organizations to crowd him out of the rankings. Sounds more like sour grapes to me, or a typical tactic used by policemen, as Ping once was, to discredit someone or something. One of his �witnesses� even wore dark shades and baseball cap, again a cheap tactic used by policemen to suggest that their �witness� is in fear for his life for revealing some dark and dangerous secret. Even in the vineyards of the Lord, the harvest is sometimes sour grapes. Evangelist Brother Eddie Villanueva, whose rise in the rankings has been phenomenal, from one percent to five in only four months, claims that he should be getting at least 15% in the surveys and that there is a deliberate plot to keep him down to 5%. As proof, he and his followers point to the crowd of, by their estimate, 80,000 who joined their recent rally in Makati and the numerous online, text and radio straw votes in which he is said to have gotten 30 to 60% of the votes cast. Metro Manila has a voting population of about four million. A crowd of 80,000 march-anywhere-for- the-cause true believers, as his followers are, constitutes only two percent, not 15%, of that population. And it cannot be compared to the, according to them, �only 35,000� who attended Cory Aquino�s Makati rallies in the 1980s. At that time, aside from a much smaller population resident or working in Makati, many people were deathly afraid of publicly showing their true colors to the goons of Marcos. In 2004, the true believers of Brother Eddie are in danger only of tripping on their own self-righteousness As for the online, text and radio straw votes, these are wide open exercises where true believers can vote as many times as their enthusiasm inspires them to, unlike scientific surveys, like Pulse Asia�s and SWS�, where randomly chosen, but demographically typical, respondents can answer or vote only once. (MAY 7 UPDATE. But it cannot be denied that Brother Eddie has created a phenomenal political force in only five months. His miting de avance at the Luneta yesterday, May 6, shows that he can draw warm bodies (five million, according to him; one million, according to independent estimates) that neither GMA nor FPJ nor Lacson nor Roco can ever hope to equal, even with their PhilHealth cards, their showbiz entertainers, their hakot crowds, and their trapo connections. The implications of this will be discussed in my next article, which I hope to post on the Internet on May 9. The most important of these implications is that FPJ may actually come out the winner on May 10). When FPJ was leading in the Pulse Asia and SWS surveys, from November 2003 to February 2004, his handlers were stumbling over each other quoting the numbers to anyone who cared to listen. But once FPJ started falling behind President Arroyo, from March onwards, those very same survey groups became anathema to them, who then took solace instead from other, unknown and unnamed polling groups (the Pwet ng Masa Weather Stations?) that showed their inarticulate idol still way ahead of the pack Even Malacanang was guilty of sour-graping during the early weeks of the campaign, when FPJ was ahead of GMA. Innuendoes were floated down river from the Palace that SWS� Mahar Mangahas was a first cousin of FPJ and was, wink-wink, being influenced by blood ties. But now that GMA is ahead and pulling away, those blood ties are no longer mentioned or hinted at. The sour grapes have sweetened. The moral of the story is: if you cannot accept the results of an honest survey, just shut up, lest sour grapes come tumbling out of your mouth. I have full confidence in the impartiality and professionalism of Pulse Asia and the SWS that have given us , in my opinion, reasonably accurate snap shots of public opinion as it has evolved through the months of the campaign. I do not pay much attention to the other surveys, including that of Ibon Foundation, which is an integral part of the communist movement, with an ideological motivation to paint President Arroyo in the worst possible light, and to boost the vp candidacy of the na�ve Sen. Loren Legarda, who does not mind prostituting herself to the communist cause (which she does not really understand) as long as there are photo ops to be mined. On the other hand, pro-communist columnist Conrado de Quiroz writes that he has confidence only in the Ibon surveys, because �they live with the people,� a favorite mantra of Marxists and Marxist-Leninists, who have a proprietary claim on �the people.�. MY VOTE. In case my choices are of interest to anyone, I am voting for Gloria Arroyo for president and Hermie Aquino for vice-president. I am in favor of abolishing the Senate, so I am not sure if I will vote for senators. If I decide to, my choices (only nine) will be, with reservations, Alvarez, Chavez, Herrera, Lim, Mercado, Padilla, Pimentel, Roxas, and Yasay. My choice for Party List is Akbayan, which is leftist but not communist. ***** The bulk of this article appears in the May 15, 2004 issue of the Philippines Free Press magazine. OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO Reactions to �Sour Grapes� We've got it almost the same. Gloria in order to add one more nail to the coffin of the Imbecile Poe and his handler Batong Buhay Angara and the idiot SottoVoce. Senators: I wonder, Tony, why you're voting for spray-painter Alfredo Lim unless you're referring to another Lim. Pimental? I dislike his opportunism. I wonder why our stupid newspapers simply swallow and report crowds of a million in Luneta. I can't believe that a jampacked Luneta extending up to Taft can hold more than 150,000 people. More than that it is the Balck Hole of Calcutta. Ross Tipon, [email protected] May 07, 2004 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Dear Tony, I do appreciate this column. Certainly Pulse Asia and SWS are run by people who are professional and credible. Thank you for voting for Lim. I have always appreciated your guts and your use of the English language. Laling Lim, [email protected] May 07, 2004 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Dear Tony A great fan of your Lester Harvey, a long time Brit who lives in the Philippines who is into Asian Art asked me to specifically invite you to his art exhibit of Posters from the Chinese Cultural Revolution 1966-1976. This will be held in Le Souffle at the Fort on Saturday May 15 at 4:30- 6:30 p.m. I hope you can make it! Thanks for the attached article. I always read your articles. Not many have the ability to write the way you do! Warm Regards JayJay Calero, [email protected] May 07, 2004 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww > > >MY VOTE. In case my choices are of interest to anyone, I am voting for >Gloria Arroyo for president and Hermie Aquino for vice-president. I am in >favor of abolishing the Senate, so I am not sure if I will vote for >senators. If I decide to, my choices (only nine) will be, with >reservations, Alvarez, Chavez, Herrera, Lim, Mercado, Padilla, Pimentel, >Roxas, and Yasay. My choice for Party List is Akbayan, which is leftist >but not communist. ***** Uncanny, your line up mirror mine quite closely, including GMA and Aquino. Thanks for the Senatorial tips. Jim Ayson, [email protected] May 07, 2004 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Thanks, Tony. A real service to the Coalition of the Undecided. Bobby Hilado, [email protected] May 07, 2004 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww (Through the talsik egroup) Dear Mr. Abaya, What's with these surveys? Which one is right? I am very confused now: 1) GMA's surveys say she's way ahead of FPJ. 2) FPJ's camp says they're bogus, to quote: Pulse Asia survey disputed Friday, 05 07, 2004, The Daily Tribune The Koalisyon ng Nagka-kaisang Pilipino (KNP) yesterday branded the latest Pulse Asia survey claiming a 6 percent lead by President Arroyo over KNP presidential candidate Fernando Poe Jr. as a "knee- jerk, delayed and bogus" reaction to the Proberz survey that showed Poe winning over Mrs. Arroyo by 13 percent of total votes. 3) An independent survey says Bro. Eddie is way ahead. 4) Investigate Reporting Magazine, Special Electin Issue Jan-Jun 2004 writes: "......THERE ARE a few things going against surveys. Contradictory results are one. Errors are another. A classic example is when surveys wrongly predicted the victory of Thomas Dewey in the 1948 U.S. presidential elections. Harry Truman won. Public opinion polls get further discredited when the results are misinterpreted - or manipulated - by the public, academics, politicians, and the media. ....." (see snippet below*) 5) An independent survey says about 30% for each GMA, FPJ, Roco. This sounds more realistic. http://www.raulroco.com/news_releases/2004/april/surveys_show_presidentialrace_06april04.htm But, what the heck, I'll disregard them all and use my conscience - for the sake of my grandchildren and their children! Picoy Fernandez, [email protected] Anchorage, Alaska May 07, 2004 MY REPLY. As stated quite clearly in the above article, I have full confidence in the impartiality and professionalism of Pulse Asia and the Social Weather Stations. I cannot say the same for the others. Surveys should not be judged by whether or not your favorite candidate is doing well or badly in them. If you cannot accept the findings of scientific surveys, you are certainly free to disregard them. wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Tony -- Good stuff. Johnny Mercado, [email protected] Philippine Daily Inquirer May 08, 2004 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww (Through the CebuPolitics egroup) --- In [email protected], picoy fernandez wrote, > Eben, This proves money does wonders. Money also tests your true character. Ogie: I agree. If by a miracle PGMA wins, it will be the people's money that did it. Is it possible that Tony Abaya got part of this money? :) I hope Eben does not take my discussion as bashing PGMA or Tony. :) Actually, Tony does not do himself justice when he keeps insisting that the SWS and Pulse Asia surveys are honest and therefore accurate, and the rest are xxx-leaning and therefore inaccurate; that is, he's saying, honesty cannot be equated to xxx-leaning acts. Thus, xxx-leaning surveys are never accurate. What i----cy! Tony must know by now, accuracy of the result is never part of surveys. The surveys measure only the LIKELIHOOD of the behavior or characteristic of a population ANALYZED from a TINY representative SAMPLE of that population. And the conditions have to SIMULATE the actual elections as close as possible for him to make a reasonable GUESS (a likelihood)! I LOL when I read about his hard "TRENDING" conclusion (not forecast, insufficient basis) that points to GMA as the sure winner. Tony forgets about one limiting factor of the surveys that says, "The results are blah, blah, blah... IF THE ELECTIONS WERE HELD TODAY AND THE CONDITIONS REMAIN THE SAME! The last clause slaps his trending conclusion right smack in the face. All the surveys had different circumstances, quite evident whenever the pollsters explain why the results are varying. Tony thought it was smart of him to start off with a statement that barring x-almost impossible events his GMA is a sure winner. He does not say that the normal conditions factored by the pollster can change much more (higher probability of occurring) than his enumerated x-almost impossible events. It is really funny, how the pollster can come up with "likely reasons" that people like Tony take as hard facts - truth! (unless if we accept money as the motivator) The reasons were not even polled!!! Yeah, who polled the respondents and even the pollsters' "opinions" on likely reasons??? What can come out from likely reasons? Likely conclusions!!! Likely Tony conclusions, folks. :) That is the most.:) I have to agree with Tony on the issue of sour graping in one sense - favorable means survey Ok, unfavorable means survey rigged! However, the reason is not sour graping but a natural ploy in politics. Only to those new in politics the reason may look like sour graping. But what of Tony? He isn't new in politics. What then is his motivation to say "sour graping?" Picoy probably can come up with the best answer. Or, may already have given the correct answer. Cheers! Ogie Reyes, [email protected] May 08, 2004 OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO |
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