 |
 |
| ON THE OTHER HAND |
| SARS Good News and Bad By Antonio C. Abaya May 1, 2003 The good news is that SARS is getting to be controlled in some countries. Vietnam was the first country cited by the WHO as having succeeded in combating SARS: Vietnam has not had a new SARS case since April 8, even though it has had more than 60 confirmed cases, of whom five died. Toronto (Canada), the only city outside East Asia to have had a SARS outbreak, was recently given a clean bill of health by the WHO after it was confirmed that it has had no new cases for the past 20 days, even though it has had 149 confirmed cases, of whom 22 died. The incidence of new infections has also markedly gone down in Singapore, Hong Kong and even Guangdong Province (China) where the epidemic is thought to have originated. It is amazing that, even though it shares a land border hundreds of kilometers long with SARS-infected southern China, low-tech Vietnam managed to defeat the SARS virus ahead of high-tech Singapore and Toronto. There must be a lesson to be learned there somewhere, and it has nothing to do with the fact the Vietnamese consider the Chinese their traditional enemies whom they want to keep outside their borders. The Philippines has not done too badly itself. President Arroyo and Health Secretary Manuel Dayrit are to be congratulated for showing the political will in taking even unpopular steps (such as quarantining entire barangays) to contain the spread of the virus. So far, we have had only three confirmed cases, two �imported�, one locally transmitted. One �imported� case recovered; the two others died. ***** The bad news is that the SARS epidemic continues to rage unabated in China. Even the acting mayor of Beijing � the previous mayor was sacked, together with no less than the health minister, for their mishandling of the emergency � has candidly admitted (April 30) that his city was being overwhelmed by the virus. Can he be blamed for his �negative thinking?� Beijing has padlocked its schools and universities, its movie houses, internet cafes and karaoke bars, and has banned gatherings of more than 50 people, yet the epidemic rages on, seemingly out of control. A 1000-bed isolation facility has been built just outside Beijing in less than ten days. But even that may not be enough since Beijing already has more than that number in confirmed and suspected cases. Other �negative thinkers� include WHO official Wolfgang Preiser who said �SARS could become a horrifying epidemic if it spread in China�s provinces or in nations like India and Bangladesh, where people live cheek-by-jowl and medical facilities are poor.� (front page, Philippine Daily Inquirer, April 26); and President Arroyo herself, who was banner headlined by the Inquirer of April 29: �GMA: Be prepared for worst scenarios.� I mention these �negative thinkers� because my article of April 24 (SARS Could Kill Millions) drew an angry criticism from a viewer for my �negative thinking.� ***** In that article I cited a mid-April analysis from the WHO, cited with bar graphs by either the BBC or CNN, that SARS deaths and infections were spreading at an average rate of 22% a week, which translates roughly to about 100% a month. I extrapolated that if the cumulative deaths (250) and infections (4,300) as of April 24 (actually, April 23) were, in the absence of any vaccine, to continue to increase by 22% a week, there could be 500 deaths and 8,600 infections by May 24, and 64,000 deaths and 1.1 million infections by Christmas of 2003. The theoretical figures for 2004 were even more disturbing. And I compared the SARS epidemic with the influenza epidemic of 1918-1919 and the bubonic plague of 1348-1350, both of which raged unabated for about two years each, in the absence of any vaccine or antidote, and which eventually killed 20 million and 25 million people, respectively, before they burned themselves out. So how are the numbers holding up? According to the WHO (www.who.int), as of April 30, the cumulative global death and infection tolls stand at 372 and 5,663, respectively. Thus the death toll has increased from 250 to 372, an increase of 122 or 49%. The infection toll has increased from 4,300 to 5,663, an increase of 1,363 or 32%. Note that both percentages are higher than the previous weekly rate of 22%. Will the numbers rise to 500 and 8,600 by May 23? No one knows. But right now, despite the many good news around the world outside China, the weight of the numbers suggest that they will, and some 85% of the new infections are being registered in China. One unnamed (or I didn�t catch his name) WHO official was quoted by the BBC as saying that �if SARS cannot be contained in China, it cannot be contained.� Would that be �negative thinking?� ***** This article appears in the May 10, 2003 issue of the Philippines Free Press magazine. |
| OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO Reactions to �SARS Good News and Bad� DO YOU THINK that the SARS is a hoax to prevent people from traveling as they have in the past. An effort on the part of the establishment to contain and control people? Andra Stone Texas [email protected] May 05, 2003 MY REPLY. Anyone who thinks SARS is a hoax should have his head examined and his temperature checked for Severe Conspiracy Anxiety Rumors Everywhere or SCARE. ���������������������������� THANKS FOR YOUR very informative assessment. We should be alert, but not panic. Best regards. Roilo Golez National Security Adviser Malacanang, Manila [email protected] May 05, 2003 MY REPLY. Dear Roy, Thank you for your reaction to my article. What is the government doing to plug the loophole in the Laoag International Airport through which Chinese from southern China are coming in without face masks, without temperature check, and without being quarantined? Tony Abaya ���������������������������� DEAR MR. ACA......I read you well and clear.....and aside from some points where we differ you're A OK.........on " SARS " please hammer the point, nag the point , again and again that there is that spot in the International Airport in Laoag, I.N.......where Sars carriers are escorted free and protected......please ....for your own good and mine ....thank you..... Tinine Bautista [email protected] May 05, 2003 MY REPLY. Please see the reactions of Sec. Golez above and below and tell me if you are reassured. ������������������������������� WE NOW HAVE very strict airport procedures, Tony. On May 15, there will be an Asean airport managers meeting to be hosted by the Philippines so we can learn from each other�s best practices. Thanks. Roy May 08, 2003 OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO |