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| ON THE OTHER HAND |
| Run, Gloria-Noli, Run By Antonio C. Abaya October 08, 2003 This observer was always of the opinion that, given the choices available, Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo represented the best, or the least objectionable, option for 2004.(See my columns in 2001 and 2002.) The title of my column of October 03, 2001 says it all: �GMA � the best there is but her best may not be good enough.� And this observer has also expressed the other opinion, that, despite her �abdication� on December 30, 2002, she would run in the 2004 elections. (See my column of May 22, 2003 titled �She Will Run.�) And so when GMA announced last October 4 that �I will sacrifice my personal yearnings for personal quiet and release from the presidential strain and anxiety. I will offer myself to the electorate in 2004 as the leader with the experience and vision necessary to change society, achieve economic development and eliminate poverty,� I was neither surprised, ecstatic, incensed, infuriated, disappointed, flummoxed, moved to sarcasm nor driven to despair, as many ambitious politicians and just as many naysaying columnists apparently were. Even the syrupy rationale about �a higher cause to change society� blah blah blah�� should not warrant any nitpicking comment. It is par for the course for any politician in any liberal democracy. I am surprised, however, that amid all the predictable brickbats that flew from all directions, one opposition senator (I can�t recall who) actually lambasted her on the grounds that her reentry into 2004 would be �divisive.� Divisive? By their very nature, ALL elections in open societies ARE divisive: few candidates ever get even 60% of the votes; in our recent presidential past, Joseph Estrada got 39%, Fidel Ramos less than 24%. It is/was only in communist societies that candidates of the communist party, the only ones allowed on the ballots, get/got 99.95% of the votes. In fact, about ten years ago, when a western reporter asked Fidel Castro why he, being so genuinely popular, did not allow anyone to contest his rule in an open election, Fidel replied, �Because elections are divisive.� Perhaps our opposition senator should move to Havana. ***** Days before GMA�s reentry announcement, two major politicians abandoned the ruling Lakas Party (which Teddyboy Locsin always refers to as �the party of thieves.�), supposedly out of principle, but, in my opinion, mostly out of naked self-interest. In resigning from Lakas, Vice-President Tito Guingona claimed unhappiness over corruption issues and unfulfilled reforms, but in reality Guingona realized that he would not be chosen as GMA�s running mate in 2004, and he has, no doubt, his own presidential ambitions. But those ambitions are forlorn, even if he alone among all contenders upholds the nationalist position on terrorism and globalization. He does not even appear on the radar screen of some surveys, and when he does, he gets only two to three percent of the votes. Only the communists get excited over Guingona. The other balimbing, Sen. Loren Legarda-Leviste gets considerably more votes than Guingona, but her ambition and impatience to climb up the power ladder may spell her early political demise. Said Loren after she abandoned Lakas: �I�m now at peace with myself and my conscience, and free to make a stand on issues unencumbered by narrow, partisan politics�I wish to be politically independent to be able to see and assess everything � not just being part of the opposition.� Translated from the Swahili, she means that, �With GMA as Lakas presidential standard bearer, there is no room for me, another female, to be her running mate, even though I am more beautiful than her, or is it �than she?� I will team up either with that bakla Ping Lacson, even though he is accused of multiple murders, torture, drug-trafficking, kidnapping, money-laundering, wire-tapping and perjury. (I am more beautiful than Alice or Michael Ray.) Or with that macho Danding Cojuangco, even though he was Ferdinand Marcos� number one crony, is some people�s favorite suspect as the brains in the assassination of Ninoy, was implicated by the San Francisco Examiner in 1990 in an alleged plot to assassinate President Cory Aquino in December 1989, and is accused of illegally grabbing control of Cocobank and San Miguel. (I am more beautiful than Gretchen.). �Or, if they both bomb out, I can even team up with that sepulchral old man Tito Guingona. (I am more beautiful than Marie).I can team up with anyone that my mentor Boy tells me to and the masa will vote for me because I am more beautiful than anyone else. If we shift to the parliamentary system after 2004, I can even team up with that faggot hairdresser and senatorial wannabe Ricky Reyes (with his ubiquitous �Kay Ganda!� billboards) and form our very own political party under the more appropriate slogan �Kay Ganda Ko!� But I cannot wait until 2010 because I may not be as beautiful then as I am now.� ***** In Yvette Novenario�s morning news program last Oct. 6 on ANC Ch. 21, I ventured the opinion, at about the same time that Housing Secretary Mike Defensor was saying the same thing, that GMA�s best running mate would be the radio-and-TV-newsreader Sen. Noli de Castro. In the Aug.30-Sept. 14 nationwide survey of the Social Weather Stations, only Noli showed any substantial improvement in his rating; the others all stagnated at their levels in June, July and August. Which means they have not added significantly to their hard-core supporters. Roco stagnated at 18-19-20%; GMA at 16-17% (she spiked after Oakwood, then slumped back because of Jose Pidal); Fernando Poe Jr. at 12-14%; Lacson at 10-11%; Cojuangco at 4-6% (he was deliberately excluded from the September survey, probably because his low rating would have been embarrassing to the survey co-sponsors who, I suspect, are friendly to Cojuangco); Honasan at 6%; Guingona at 2%. Noli de Castro, on the other hand, stagnated at 22-18-20% in previous months, but shot up dramatically to 28% in September. Which suggests that, after Oakwood and Jose Pidal, people are sick and tired of politicians, of whom the uncontroversial Noli is not counted as one. In the vice-presidential ratings, Noli is even more unbeatable, with 37%, leaving his rivals behind: Loren 15%, Magsaysay 12%, Drilon 11%, Honasan 9%, Flavier 8% and Bayani Fernando 4%. The perennial vice-presidential wannabe, Robert Barbers, does not even figure. Concerns about geographical balance are meaningless: in the SWS September survey, Noli de Castro, as top presidential choice with a 28% rating nationwide, garnered his biggest percentage (35%) and was number one choice in Mindanao even though he is not from there. He was also the number one choice of respondents in Luzon and Visayas, but was only number four (after Roco, Lacson and GMA) in the national capital region. A Gloria-Noli team-up would be the most winnable combination, a guaranteed hit with both the middle-class and the masa, as well as with the business and professional communities. And because Noli is not known to have a strong position on anything, he will not block any �reforms� that GMA may wish to push in pursuit of a �strong republic,� including a shift to the parliamentary system through a constitutional convention. For Noli, this would be a painless, seamless, expense-less, effortless climb up the power ladder. Even though he is not as beautiful as Loren. And if and when we move to a Westminster-type parliamentary system after 2004, Vice-President Noli can still run for, and easily win, the by-then largely ceremonial office of president in 2010 or thereabouts, while someone else with a death-wish, as prime minister, (hopefully not De Venecia or Cojuangco) grapples thanklessly with the myriad and intractable problems of this unfortunate country. ***** The bulk of this article appears in the October 18, 2003 issue of the Philippines Free Press magazine. . OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO Reactions to �Run, Gloria-Noli, Run� With all the rumors running around on who�s who on 2004. Your article below maybe the most accurate perception yet. As for Loren and her ambition, Shakespeare wrote it, ambition should be made of sterner stuff. Most enjoyable� thank you. . Orimar, [email protected] New York City, October 13, 2003 �������������������������������������. Dear Mr.Abaya, Just a simple and brief comment from a foreign observer. To me the biggest problem of the Philippines is the prevailing culture of deception, whereby nobody trusts nobody. Obviously no system can function under these conditions. The real revolution is therefore to change this culture starting from the top. By not keeping her word not to run in 2004, it seems that GMA is defying the very purpose of a revolution to build a strong republic. Best regards, Ugo Guido, ugo [email protected] MY REPLY. Thank you for your reaction. Since, as you said, �nobody trusts nobody,� then nobody should be fooled by the promises of anyone, least of all a politician, unless it is given in a notarized document with specific penalties for non-compliance. ���������������������������������. Dear Tony, Noli de Castro's being a Sinsuat seems pertinent to his consistently strong survey-numbers in Mindanao. Regards, Mahar Mangahas, [email protected] October 13, 2003 At 10:22 AM 10/12/03 +0800, you wrote: Concerns about geographical balance are meaningless: in the SWS September survey, Noli de Castro, as presidential choice with a 28% rating nationwide, garnered his biggest percentage (35%) and was number one choice in Mindanao even though he is not from there. He was also the number one choice of respondents in Luzon and Visayas, but was only number three (after Roco and Lacson) in the national capital region. MY REPLY. You�re right, of course, Mahar. ��������������������������������. And, yes, with the victory of the Terminator in California, Filipinos will be more inclined to go for the popular and less knowledgeable candidate. Noli can spread his brand of Pilipino effortlessly and say "tatlong mga kalalakihan and nahuli..." instead of "tatlong lalake..." Oh, well, that's progress in the Philippines ... always a caricature of Hollywood. Hollywood must be a curse to the Philippines. Gras Reyes, [email protected] October 13, 2003 ���������������������������������.. I can't imagine how a serious writer like you can even mention one Noli for a high office. You sound like Maceda. Ross Tipon, [email protected] October 14, 2003 MY REPLY. I can�t imagine how a serious letter-writer like you can choose to ignore, out of intellectual snobbery, someone who is way ahead of everybody else in both the presidential and vice-presidential races. You sound like King Canute. OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO |