| The Religious Vote By Antonio C. Abaya December 24, 2003 The most notable thing about the Religious Vote is that it does not exist except in the imagination of those who hear voices from the void and see signs in the sky. The empirical evidence abounds. When Juan Flavier first ran for senator in 1995, fresh from his 3-year stint as Health Secretary of President Ramos, the Roman Catholic bishops waged a nationwide campaign against his candidacy because of his open advocacy of the use of artificial methods of birth control. Yet Flavier came out a clear winner, fifth or sixth in a field of 58 candidates. Fidel Ramos himself was the object of the bishops� scorn and mistrust when he ran for President in 1992, because he was a Protestant. (Flavier was a Catholic, though married to a Protestant). The Catholic bishops were afraid that if Ramos were elected president, he would pursue a birth control program, contrary to the teachings of the Church, and they were right: Ramos did so, using Flavier as his point man. Yet, despite the efforts and fervent prayers of the Catholic bishops, Ramos won by a slim plurality (24%), over Miriam Santiago (22%) and Danding Cojuangco (18%). It must be said, however, that even today many do not accept his victory in 1992. Miriam was consistently the leading candidate in all public opinion surveys up to the very last week before election day. (The sudden jump of Ramos, from third place to first in only seven days, is usually credited to the so-called Sulo Hotel Operations Group, about which my esteemed colleague Teddy Benigno, wrote four or five angry columns, and which operations were masterminded by a creative political technician who is now in the employ of Malacanang. Is he planning to do an encore in 2004 and catapult the fourth-placer GMA to first on election day? The other contenders should be worried. (Another creative political technician, who was exposed and named in the testimony of Chavit Singson in 2000 as having been in charge of bribing print and broadcast media persons during the Erap years, with a budget of P2 million a month from jueteng earnings, is now also employed by Malacanang. Why Malacanang would spend millions of pesos to hire such slimeballs can only be explained by the special creative expertise that they possess.) Another example of the chimeral character of the religious vote is the poor performance of political parties that sought to draw their pulling power from the endorsement of the Lord. In the 1998 presidential elections, a Catholic charismatic community called Elim formed a political party, the Bago Party, to participate in the elections. Its founder, one Brother Willie Nakar, and his wife, one Sister Something, claimed that in a vision that they had while they were in Jerusalem, they were told by the Lord that the next president of the Philippines would be one who has been anointed by Elim. Nene Pimentel was the original anointed one, but he had a falling out with the Pharisees and was dropped. Brother Willie claimed a membership of four million nationwide, but in the 1998 elections its candidates for president (Santiago Dumlao) and vice-president (Nandy Pacheco) drew less than 100,000 votes each., though Nandy says that many votes for them had not been counted at all. Even in the Rolling Hills subdivision in which Elim had its HQ, the Bago (or Elim) candidates officially got zero votes, according to Nandy. In the same 1998 elections, another rabid preacher, Brother Wilde Almeda, threw his charismatic group�s lot behind Candidate Jose de Venecia, with the empty boast that, if De Venecia did not win, he, Brother Wilde, was willing to be executed (by whom, he did not specify) in Luneta. Well, De Venecia got only 17% of the votes, versus Erap�s winning 39%, but Brother Wilde was not executed by anyone. Instead he went to Sulu to intervene in some hostage negotiations, where he suffered a stroke that tragically left him permanently speechless. There is a lesson to be learned here somewhere, but I do not dare spell it out lest lightning strike me. Come now Brother Eddie Villanueva and his Jesus is Lord Movement which, he claims, has seven million members. He has launched his candidacy for the presidency out of an apparently sincere anger at the deterioration of this country�s political and economic fortunes. President Arroyo is said to have shed some tears when Brother Eddie told her that he was going to challenge her in 2004. This would be one more chipping away at her shrinking support base. But does JIL really have seven million members? I doubt it. These numbers, like Elim�s, are not based on computerized membership rolls or on scientifically measured viewership of their late-night TV programs (when, according to market surveys, only seven percent of TV viewers are still awake), but on exaggerated, self-serving estimates of their own importance. And even if they were accurate, so what? As the Elim experience shows, there is no such thing as a religious vote. About five years ago, an organization called Vox Populi surveyed the voting proclivities of self-described members of religious groups. The key question was: if you have chosen a particular candidate and your church elders urge you to vote for someone else who is favored by them, would you follow their dictates? Among mainstream Catholics and Protestants, only 8 to 9% said they would. Among members of the Iglesia ni Kristo, only 22% (still a big minority) said they would. I do not recall the exact numbers for charismatic groups, but it was in the area of 12 to 14%. And the reason for this is that, in our secular environment, more and more people have direct access to information through radio and TV and are thus less dependent on political bosses (including religious leaders) to form their political opinions. That was true in 1998; it would be even truer now with the spread of cell-phone texting even among the masa. Religion-based political groups often decry the absence of programs of government among trapos competing in our elections, and next year�s is not going to be different. The fact, however, is that most of the contenders for the presidency in May 2004 do have their own programs of government (no matter how pedestrian some of those programs may be), the exceptions being Fernando Poe Jr. and the still-undeclared Noli de Castro, ironically the two leading contenders. In one survey without De Castro, FPJ is said to lord it over the others with a rating of 45%. In another survey, this time with De Castro in it, the two of them together command more than 50% of the votes (even though they have not articulated any program of government), leaving the trapos and the religious upstarts to fight over scraps. The fact of life is that in today�s new environment of masa politics, popularity is all and programs of government count for nothing among the masa majority of voters, for whom politics is entertainment, not the science or art of governance. Sad, but that is the reality, and no amount of sanctimonious anger, no amount of religious zealotry, is going to change that anytime soon. It is also futile raging against it unless one has the communications skills to connect with the masa long enough to educate them, which cannot be said of any of the trapo or religious candidates. ***** The bulk of this article appears in the January 03, 2004 issue of the Philippines Free Press. Other articles may be viewed at the website www.tapatt.org. OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO Reactions to �The Religious Vote� Excellent as usual! Now what do you do with the FPJ oncoming deluge? Jayjay Calero, [email protected] December 26, 2003 MY REPLY. Confucius says: �If rape is inevitable, lie down and enjoy it.� ........................................................................ dear mr. tony abaya, thank you for sharing your articles with me. i surely enjoy the content, and not much less, the style. the articles are in turn forwarded to many friends whether or not they agree with them. i wish you and your loved ones safety, good health, and peace of mind for the coming years. happy holidays!! epi espaldon, [email protected] ayala alabang village, muntinlupa city December 26, 2003 MY REPLY. Thank you for your kind wishes. The same to you and your loved ones. ..................................................................... (Through the Talsik egroup) Dear Mr. Abaya, While I'm not discounting the power of this so-called Sulo Hotel Operations Group to jump Ramos from third to first place in only seven days, I believe there were several other possible reasons for Ramos' victory, and if only to set the record straight for a president who led the country quite well, I'd like to offer at least three, namely: 1.. The Power of Disillusioned ex-Supporters. I was among the first to go to Miriam's office at Broadway Centrum to sign up for MOVERS. They didn't even have the computers set up yet, and the place was in a mess. I filled out the form and gave all my contact details, but didn't hear anything from them for quite some time. Then, all of sudden I started getting a lot of mails. Not from MOVERS, but from a her newly-formed political party. Although surprised at having become a party member without having officially signed up for it, I decided to go along. I even agreed to be the emcee when she came to campaign in our town - and was shocked to see how inconsiderately she treated her supporters. I started asking around, and it turned out I wasn't the only one who was seeing the kinks in Joan of Arc's armor. Many of us were seriously questioning whether we wanted a president who was so combative, egoistic, and selfish. But there didn't seem to be any other option... or so it seemed. This may sound melodramatic, but it's the truth. I went to the polling place still undecided. I stood for quite some time, looking deep inside myself, before I finally wrote down RAMOS instead of Santiago. I am not privy to who the other ex-Santiago supporters voted for, but I'm sure that in the last days of battle I wasn't the only one who decided she didn't deserve our support, much less our votes.. 2.. The Power of Ramos Himself. Throughout the electoral campaign, Ramos carried himself as a true "officer and gentleman" adroitly parrying blows from other contenders and some media people, and refusing to be dragged into verbal battles or mud-slinging extravaganzas. I believe that over time, this positive perception may have worked its way into voters' consciousness and translated itself into additional votes for him on election day. 3.. The Power of Poll Surveys (or more appropriately, the lack of it). Time and time again, poll surveys have been trotted out by candidates and incumbents alike to support their own interests - and why not, since media [with due respect to Mr. Abaya] love to quote survey results, sometimes indiscriminately or out of context. I'm no statistician nor researcher, but I believe that no poll survey [even the famed Gallup] can ever be 100% accurate. And it is in this fraction of error [no matter how small it may be] that a relative "dark horse" like Ramos could have RIGHTFULLY won his right to govern this country for six years. Just my two cents, for whatever it's worth these days. Michelle Alba Lim, [email protected] December 26, 2003 MY REPLY. Your two cents are genuinely appreciated here. And there is no doubt that many supporters of Miriam, like you, were turned off by her subsequent behavior. But that is beside the point. The point here is that the Mastermind of the Sulo Hotel Operations was rewarded by President Ramos with a lucrative Cabinet position, which drew those four or five angry columns in the Philippine Star by Teddy Benigno, a Ramos supporter and insider who knew the nature of the services that were being rewarded. Said Cabinet member promptly got involved in an anomaly involving contracts bidded out by his department, for which he was never reproached or punished. Part of his reward, I suppose. The other point is that said Mastermind, together with the briber of media during the Erap years, as exposed by Chavit Singson, are now working for Malacanang, and Malacanang has not hired them for their good looks or their devotion to the saints in Heaven. FPJ, Roco and Lacson, and their supporters, should at least know what they�re up against. .................................................................................... Dear Tony, You're absolutely right Tony. You couldn't have said it better when you said: "The fact of life is that in today's new environment of masa politics, popularity is all and programs of government count for nothing among the masa majority of voters, for whom politics is entertainment, not the science of governance." Frank Jimenez, [email protected] West Orange, New Jersey December 26, 2003 ...................................................................................... Dear Sir: First, i want to greet you belated Merry Christmas! and advance Happy New Year! Wishing you and your family a good health and a prosperous life. I think those spiritual leader should not join the politics or run as candidates. They should con concentrate on their spiritual teaching. Even the time of Moises, peace be upon him, he set a Gov. that will assist all the personal needs of people which are not related on spiritual needs. I respect all spiritual groups, i know they help each individual spiritually but i'm not in favor joining them in politics. Teaching righteousness is already a big help, but going to politics is the worst thing they gonna do. Sir i have a comment also in globalization. Well, i believe in it because i think the world need to share the wealth to each other. But there is one unfair in such practice, the purchasing power of currency. If they want it to be fair there should one global currency also. When they buy to us they will use few dollars, euro, pounds or yen. Tayo e katakot takot na peso ang itatapon. I ask a businessman before, its a big help also of lesser purchasing power dahil our labor and product will be competitive in the world market. But i think its not true, why U.S. and Japan has a strong currency halos kanila lahat ang world market. Is there something wrong with our bankers or economist? Anyway if i'm President Gloria Macapacal Arroyo I will deal with Marcoses, just bring back all their wealth to Philippines and invest it. And they will have the General Amnesty. And those who are opposed to this tigilin na yon let be realistic natutuwa loang ang bansa na may hawak ng kayamanan na yon. With that wealth we can create more jobs and strong economy. Life is so short, kung dadaanin pa natin na may halong pride, baka patay na ang hinahabol at humahabol e wala pa tayong matikmang ginhawa, pasasa lang ang bansang may hawak niyon. Para naman sir na kaming ocw na matagal na rito e makauwi na rin diyan for good. Thanks and best regards. Alexander Carranceja, [email protected] Saudi Arabia December 27, 2003 ................................................................................. Mr Abaya, How's the Yuletide season goin' on for you? I agree with you on all the topics covered in your emails in the past months. Your commentaries and analogies are just commendable. Don't you have plans to run for office? Or did you hold one already? You'll make a superb leader, with your visions and wit. Anyway, I predict an ultimate battle between GMA and FPJ. I just hope that the outcome of next year's polls will be credible and clean (not suitable adjectives in politics) Do you know Mr. Tulfo? Saw his interview on TFC, I forgot his first name but the guy has balls to lambast and accuse Roco as a wife beater and a hypocrite (we already know that). Ping a murderer ( a suspect is innocent until proven guilty in a court of law) and a bakla. While questioning FPJ's educational background (justified) Golly, it really has been a big circus in the political climate there! So much for that. Wishin' you and your whole family a blessed Holiday Season and may all of you have a more Prosperous New Year ahead. I pray that after next year's polls, strong leaders would emerge, who would be key players for a better governance, peaceful and improved economy... It's very crucial for the future of our children and our country... Truly, Bong L. Sempio, [email protected] December 27, 2003 MY REPLY. And Happy New Year to you and your family also. To answer your question, I have never held any public office, except as unpaid private sector rep in the Presidential Task Force on Traffic Improvement and Management under President Ramos. I have been asked by several people, including complete strangers, to run for President in 1998 and then 2004. But I have declined. Not because the chances of winning are zero, but because my participation would not have made/would not make any difference. Thank you for your kind words, anyway. ............................................................................. Dear Tony, It is not true that Miriam was leading in all opinion surveys in 1992 up to election day; that was just her propaganda. In the SWS NATIONAL surveys she was almost always second to FVR; the exception, I think about March 1992, was when she and FVR were tied for the lead (it was after FVR went on a mysterious trip abroad, and there was so much speculation as to what he might have been up to). The SWS polls had Miriam as the steady leader in Metro Manila specifically, which is consistent with her being the leader in straw polls among NCR students. When one counts only NATIONAL polls then the consistent 1992 survey leader was FVR. Kindly make a correction in your next article. The SWS Survey Data Library is open to the public for researching on this matter; see the SWS Librarian Jeanette Ureta <[email protected]>. I think I have a chapter on this matter in my book The Philippine Social Climate (Anvil, 1994). I am abroad now and will try to remember to look for a reference to send you when I get back. Regards, Mahar Mangahas, [email protected] December 28, 2003 MY REPLY. OK, I stand corrected, Miriam was leading in all opinion surveys in 1992 up to the week before election day (when there were no more surveys), EXCEPT IN THE SWS SURVEY. SWS was not the only one doing surveys then. I had a daily radio program over Radio Veritas then with Charito Planas and we were monitoring those surveys and straw votes almost everyday, including one conducted by Radio Veritas itself with more than 100,000 respondents. These polls were conducted in public markets, university campuses, military camps, bus stations, shopping malls, and not just in Metro Manila. The overall picture was 1. Miriam; 2. Danding; 3. Ramos. That many Miriam supporters were subsequently disillusioned with her behavior immediately before and after election day is beside the point. The point is that the Sulo Hotel Operations Group performed its miracles well, for which its Mastermind was rewarded with a lucrative Cabinet position, despite the angry columns of Teddy Benigno, a Ramos supporter and insider who knew what kind of services were being rewarded. That this Mastermind is now employed by Malacanang should worry you, Mahar, since he has obviously been hired to perform in 2004 the same miracles that he performed in 1992. Your cousin FPJ�s lead position in current surveys may miraculously evaporate when they start tabulating the ballots, especially the ballots in rural Mindanao. Just a friendly warning. .................................................................................... (Through the Talsik egroup) In [email protected], "Antonio C. Abaya" <acabaya@p...> wrote: � Yet, despite the efforts and fervent prayers of the Catholic bishops, Ramos won by a slim plurality (24%), over Miriam Santiago (22%) and Danding Cojuangco (18%). It must be said, however, that even today many do not accept his victory in 1992. Miriam was consistently the leading candidate in all public opinion surveys up to the very last week before election day.� Tony, partly because Ramos got a bad rap when he went to Switzerland, officially to seek support from European Christian Democrats but was "spinned" by detractors as a trip made to withdraw his alleged share of the Marcos-era loot), Marvin Bionat, [email protected] December 26, 2003 ....................................................................................... (Through the Talsik egroup) marvin, PARTLY, yes. Bad Rap? not too sure about that. how else cud he hv become a board member of now 16 yr. old $14 Billion private investment firm, The Carlyle Group, Inc. assocs include power-names like papa bush, john majors, jim baker, frank carlucci, rich armitage, art levitt(ex-sec chmn), an ex-FCC ceo and a slew of ex's....including saudi arabia's bin laden family! ex-cons? (go-to any search engine and type "carlyle group"...read more, including that fortune mag article). carlyle gets its money from private interests that have business before gov't(s)...lots of conflict-of-interest issues, all swept-under-the-rug...of power & success. he's got more explaining to do re: PEA-Amari, where pcij says, "they divvied up 3 billion pesos". expo-centenial white elephant? why were he and de venecia trying to win 1998 presidential elections? serve-the-country? ka-ninong "country"? ma-dalas na ba ngayon'g may sakit o wala s'ya sa country. why parang relatively quiet these days? nag-momo-ni't nag-to-toas- tan kaya sila sa swiss castle ng paboritong in-law ni macoy? IF & WHEN, these "successful big-time PINOY-OFWs" repatriate only 10% of their TREASUREs sa phils, we can erase phil. gov't annual 200 billion deficit, that in itself, NEEDs a lot of revised prioritizing, implementation, accountabilty, etc., or else we're back- to-square-one. [say, $40 B x 55 pesos = 2,200 B pesos x 10% = 220 B pesos...tama ba'ng matema-tiks?] of course, easier said than done! and, someone' gotta do it. bebs, [email protected] December 26, 2003 p.s. happy new year, "old friend"! must admit, "always easier to grow old, than it is to get wiser." ................................................................................................ (Through the Talsik egroup) Hmm, then that confirms about what I overheard from a good friend, he is the "big fish that got away!" Anyone who has more input about this guy, post it here so we can start how to uncover fishy transactions! We in the military (I am retired), are still confused as to where the money for the military modernization program went. That's more than 6 Billion! Any leads? Rolly Cabanban, [email protected] December 26, 2003 ................................................................................. Tony, Your name was included among the members of the "campaign team of PGMA" by Concepcion Paez, contributing writer of NEWSBREAK - issue January 2004. Pertinent portion attached. I am simply curious : a) ...if this is a fact, or not? b) ...or if you are even aware that this article has been published? A clarification is appreciated. ----------------------- Gloria Macapagal Arroyo: The Tireless Campaigner By Concepcion Paez NEWSBREAK Contributing writer PERTINENT EXCERPT ONLY.... =========================== <<<Campaign strategists Aside from Claudio, those on the campaign team are Presidential Political Adviser Hernani Braganza, Presidential Adviser for Ecclesiastical and Media Affairs Conrado Limcauco, and media man Antonio Abaya.<<< ========================= My comments on your most recent article are parenthetically inserted in pertinent portions of the article. Pepeton ===================== Subj: The Religious Vote Date: 12/25/03 10:20:02 PM Pacific Standard Time From: [email protected] (Antonio C. Abaya) To: Undisclosed-Recipient:; The Religious Vote By Antonio C. Abaya December 24, 2003 ------------------------ The most notable thing about the Religious Vote is that it does not exist except in the imagination of those who hear voices from the void and see signs in the sky. The empirical evidence abounds. PEPETON: (ABSOLUTELY. I AGREE.) ========================== Yet, despite the efforts and fervent prayers of the Catholic bishops, Ramos won by a slim plurality (24%), over Miriam Santiago (22%) and Danding Cojuangco (18%). It must be said, however, that even today many do not accept his victory in 1992. Miriam was consistently the leading candidate in all public opinion surveys up to the very last week before election day. (The sudden jump of Ramos, from third place to first in only seven days, is usually credited to the so-called Sulo Hotel Operations Group, about which my esteemed colleague Teddy Benigno, wrote four or five angry columns, and which operations were masterminded by a creative political technician who is now in the employ of Malacanang. Is he planning to do an encore in 2004 and catapult the fourth-placer GMA to first on election day? The other contenders should be worried. (Another creative political technician, who was exposed and named in the testimony of Chavit Singson in 2000 as having been in charge of bribing print and broadcast media persons during the Erap years, with a budget of P2 million a month from jueteng earnings, is now also employed by Malacanang. Why Malacanang would spend millions of pesos to hire such slimeballs can only be explained by the special creative expertise that they possess.) PEPETON OBERVES: (BY "CREATIVE", I GATHER, YOU MEAN INGENIOUS SCHEMES, SCAMS, SHAMS AND SHENANIGANS FOR ELECTION FRAUD, ("dagdag-bawas, etc.) THUS, ABORTING THE WILL AND MANDATE OF THE PEOPLE. I HOPE TO READ MORE ABOUT THIS IN YOUR SUCCEEDING COLUMNS.) ============== Another example of the chimeral character of the religious vote is the poor performance of political parties that sought to draw their pulling power from the endorsement of the Lord. In the 1998 presidential elections, a Catholic charismatic community called Elim formed a political party, the Bago Party, to participate in the elections. Its founder, one Brother Willie Nakar, and his wife, one Sister Something, claimed that in a vision that they had while they were in Jerusalem, they were told by the Lord that the next president of the Philippines would be one who has been anointed by Elim. Nene Pimentel was the original anointed one, but he had a falling out with the Pharisees and was dropped. Brother Willie claimed a membership of four million nationwide, but in the 1998 elections its candidates for president (Santiago Dumlao) and vice-president (Nandy Pacheco) drew less than 100,000 votes each., though Nandy says that many votes for them had not been counted at all. Even in the Rolling Hills subdivision in which Elim had its HQ, the Bago (or Elim) candidates officially got zero votes, according to Nandy. PEPETON REJOINDER: ( I AM FAMILIAR WITH THE FOUNDERS OF THE GROUP. SANTI DUMLAO IS MARRIED TO THE SISTER OF WILLIE NAKAR. THEY HAVE AN OLDER BROTHER WHO APPARENTLY WAS NOT ACTIVELY INVOLVED IN THE ELIM ORG. THESE ARE THE CHILDREN OF THE WAR HERO GEN. GUILLERMO NAKAR. SANTI DUMLAO WAS AN AYALA Y CIA SENIOR EXECUTIVE BEFORE HE JOINED THE LOPEZES TO HELP RUN THE NEWSPAPER OF "THE BEAUTIFUL PEOPLE" - THE MANILA CHRONICLE. SANTI IS A UP AND HARVARD LAW ALUMNUS. THE WIFE WAS A MARYKNOLL GRADUATE, BATCH OF GEMMA CRUZ. NICE PEOPLE. INTRIGUING QUESTION IS - WHY DID SANTI (WHO IS A SMART AND INTELLIGENT AND SUCCESSFUL MAN IN HIS CAREER AND PRIVATE LIFE DECIDE TO ENTER POLITICS, VIA THE "RELIGIOUS WAY"? I NEVER GOT AROUND TO ASKING HIM OR HIS WIFE. BTW, IN 1992, THERE WAS ANOTHER INSULAR LIFE ASSURANCE COMPANY (AN AYALA COMPANY) WHO ALSO RAN FOR THE PRESIDENCY - ANGEL COMAGON...GOT 35 VOTES. I ASKED HIM THEN..."WHY?" HE SAID: "I WAS FULFILLING MY CONSTITUTIONAL DUTY. IT DID NOT MATTER WHETHER I WON OR NOT. I WANTED TO MAKE A STATEMENT." SO WHATEVER BROTHER EDDIE V IS GOING TO MOUTH OFF NOW...CANNOT BE "ORIG". IT HAS ALL BEEN USED. IT HAS ALL BEEN MENTIONED. NONE OF THEM WORKED. SO WE KNOW THAT EDDIE V KNOWS, HE "AIN'T GOT A GLIMMER OF HOPE." BUT HE HAS TO TAKE A STAND AND LET HIS "FOLLOWERS" KNOW. AND HE IS GOING TO TRY LIKE HELL TO CONVINCE - FIRST, MEDIA, THEN THE GENERAL PUBLIC, THAT HE HAS ACTUALLY GOT A "FIGHTING CHANCE"...PROBLEM WITH WHAT EDDIE V DID IS, IF HE BAILS OUT BEFORE ELECTION IS OVER, FOR WHATEVER REASON, HE IS BOUND TO LOSE HIS "FOLLOWINGS". I AM NOT SURE WHAT THE "CLAIMED" MEMBERSHIP OF ELIM IS NOW. IT WOULD BE INTERESTING TO FIND OUT, IF THIS ORG IS EVEN AS ACTIVE AS IT USED TO BE.) ======================= Come now Brother Eddie Villanueva and his Jesus is Lord Movement which, he claims, has seven million members. He has launched his candidacy for the presidency out of an apparently sincere anger at the deterioration of this country�s political and economic fortunes. President Arroyo is said to have shed some tears when Brother Eddie told her that he was going to challenge her in 2004. This would be one more chipping away at her shrinking support base. PEPETON WONDERS: ( I HONESTLY DON'T SEE THE RHYME AND REASON WHY THIS STORY IS GOING AROUND. WHY WOULD GMA BE CONCERNED WITH A RELIGIOUS ORG WHOSE CLAIM HAS NEVER BEEN CORROBORATED? HOW MANY MEMBERS DOES EL SHADDAI HAVE? HOW ABOUT INK? IF WE ARE TO BELIEVE ALL THESE CLAIMS ABOUT RELIGIOUS ELECTORAL OR VOTER BACKINGS AND SUPPORTS, THEN ONE WILL HAVE TO DRAW THE INCONTROVERTIBLE CONCLUSION THAT WHOEVER GETS THE RELIGIOUS VOTES WILL WIN THE ELECTION??? THIS IS THE SOPHISTRY AND PEDANTRY OF THE PILIPINO. THEY THROW AROUND STUPID AND SILLY-ASSED FIGURES. LET'S TAKE THE 7 MILLION OF BROTHER EDDIE. OKEY? HOW MANY OF THESE FOLLOWERS ARE OF LEGAL VOTING AGE? OF THOSE 18 YEARS AND ABOVE, HOW MANY ARE REGISTERED? OF THOSE REGISTERED, HOW MANY ARE CURRENTLY RESIDING IN THE PRECINCT WHERE THEY ARE REGISTERED? OF THE 7 MILLION MEMBERS OF THE ORG OF BROTHER EDDIE, HOW MANY ACTUALLY VOTED IN THE 1998 ELECTIONS? OR, WHAT IS THE ACTUAL VOTER TURNOUT OF THEIR MEMBERS WHO WERE REGISTERED VOTERS? OBVIOUSLY NOT 7 MILLIONS. DOUBTFUL IF THESE WILL EVEN AMOUNT TO 50% OF 7 MILLIONS. WHAT THE HECK, DOES BROTHER EDDIE KNOW HOW TO COUNT UP TO 7 MILLIONS? SO WHO REPORTED THAT PGMA AND HER CABINET ARE WORRIED THAT BRO. EDDIE IS RUNNING? THIS IS THE KIND OF BULLSHIT THAT MEDIA PHILIPPINES IS VERY CAPABLE OF MAKING UP. AND I SUSPECT THAT THIS IS ALL THAT IT IS. JUST LIKE THE STORY OF THAT JOURNALIST, WHO WAS IT, BELTRAN OR TABUENA WHO REPORTED, THAT DURING ONE OF THE COUPS (1989?) AGAINST CORY AQUINO, THE PRESIDENT HID UNDER THE BED???? RIDICULOUS! HOW WOULD ANYONE KNOW THAT? WHAT IS EVEN MORE STUPID IS, HOW DOES A JOURNALIST GET AWAY WITH IRREVERENT RUMOR MONGERINGS LIKE THAT? I UNDERSTAND THE LIBELOUS OR DEFAMATORY ALLEGATIONS OF THE JOURNALIST WERE DISMISSED BY THE COURT.) But does JIL really have seven million members? I doubt it. These numbers, like Elim�s, are not based on computerized membership rolls or on scientifically measured viewership of their late-night TV programs (when, according to market surveys, only seven percent of TV viewers are still awake), but on exaggerated, self-serving estimates of their own importance. And even if they were accurate, so what? As the Elim experience shows, there is no such thing as a religious vote. ============== PEPETON SECONDS: (CORRECTAMUNDO...) ================ About five years ago, an organization called Vox Populi surveyed the voting proclivities of self-described members of religious groups. The key question was: if you have chosen a particular candidate and your church elders urge you to vote for someone else who is favored by them, would you follow their dictates? Among mainstream Catholics and Protestants, only 8 to 9% said they would. Among members of the Iglesia ni Kristo, only 22% (still a big minority) said they would. I do not recall the exact numbers for charismatic groups, but it was in the area of 12 to 14%. And the reason for this is that, in our secular environment, more and more people have direct access to information through radio and TV and are thus less dependent on political bosses (including religious leaders) to form their political opinions. That was true in 1998; it would be even truer now with the spread of cell-phone texting even among the masa. Religion-based political groups often decry the absence of programs of government among trapos competing in our elections, and next year�s is not going to be different. The fact, however, is that most of the contenders for the presidency in May 2004 do have their own programs of government (no matter how pedestrian some of those programs may be), the exceptions being Fernando Poe Jr. and the still-undeclared Noli de Castro, ironically the two leading contenders. In one survey without De Castro, FPJ is said to lord it over the others with a rating of 45%. In another survey, this time with De Castro in it, the two of them together command more than 50% of the votes (even though they have not articulated any program of government), leaving the trapos and the religious upstarts to fight over scraps. PEPETON TAKES A DIFFERENT STAND ON THIS: (GIVEN LOOSENESS IN CHECKS AND BALANCES IN MEDIA REPORTING AND THE QUESTIONABLE FUNDINGS AND ULTERIOR MOTIVES OF THE POLL SURVEYORS...I PERSONALLY DO NOT GIVE MUCH CREDIBILITY TO ANY SURVEYS FROM THE PHILIPPINES. FOR INSTANCE, EVERYBODY KNOWS THAT MAHAR MANGAHAS OF SWS AND FPJ ARE FIRST COUSINS...SOOOOO? AND MANGAHAS HAS NOT DENIED THAT IF HE WERE TO BE ASKED BY FPJ TO BE PART OF HIS CABINET, SHOULD HE WIN...THAT HE WOULD NOT DECLINE...AND ACTUALLY BE HAPPY TO JOIN....MY QUESTION IS, "HASN'T HE, REALLY BEEN TEAMED UP WITH FPJ, RIGHT FROM THE VERY START?" WHAT DO YOU THINK ARE THE CHANCES THAT SWS WILL EVER SHOW FPJ RATING DROPPING???? ) I STILL MAINTAIN THAT FPJ - IF HE DOES NOT DO A "LAST MINUTE PULL OUT" (SOUNDS LIKE THE BIBLICAL "ONANISM") - WILL MOST LIKELY GET THE "MASTER BEATING" OF HIS LIFE. FPJ IS NOT AN ARNOLD SCHWARZENEGGER. NOR AN ERAP. FPJ IS JUST AN ACTOR. NOTHING MORE. LET ME CORRECT MYSELF...AN AGED ACTOR, WAY PAST HIS PRIME, WHO CANNOT SUSTAIN A SINGLE DAY, WITHOUT COVERING HIS EYES WITH THOSE DARK GLASSES....SPEAKING OF WHICH....HOW MANY PRESIDENTS HAVE WE HAD...WHO CONSPICUOSLY AND OSTENSIBLY WORE "DARK GLASSES"? WE DID ONCE HAVE "THE BEST MANILA MAYOR WHO COULD HAVE BEEN BUT NEVER WAS THE PRESIDENT ARSENIO H. "MAMBO" LACSON....HE NEVER MADE IT PAST BEING A MAYOR. BESIDES, I HAVE VERY SERIOUS DOUBTS THAT FPJ HAS THE STAMINA TO LAUNCH AND LAST A FULL PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN AND BARNSTORMING....IN REAL LIFE. REALLY. ONE OF THE REAL REASONS WHY HE LIMITS HIS SPEECHES AND DIALOGUES TO A FEW "ONE LINERS", ASIDE FROM THE OBVIOUS FACT THAT HE HASN'T REALLY GOT MUCH TO SAY...IS HIS "SPAN OF ATTENTION" IS SHORT...CAN'T FOCUS TOO LONG ON ANY TOPIC...CAN'T DISCUSS ANYTHING EXTEMPORANEOUSLY OR IMPROMPTU UNLESS IT IS AROUND A DRINKING TABLE OR BAR. UNBEKNOWNST TO SOME, HE HAS A SIMILAR DRINKING PROBLEM AS ERAP. BEHIND THOSE SMILES AND "CONTROLLED BEHAVIOUR" IN PUBLIC...LIES THE REAL FPJ. BUT FEW HAVE ACTUALLY BEEN ALLOWED TO GET "THAT CLOSED OR INTIMATE WITH FPJ". AND THAT IS BECAUSE, FPJ IS THE CONSUMMATE ARTISTA. THAT IS WHAT HE IS. EVERYTHING ELSE ABOUT THE PERSONALITY OF FPJ ARE PURELY EMBELLISHED BY MEDIA AND HIS PROMOTERS. I CAN GUARANTEE ANYBODY THAT WITH "FPJ, WHAT YOU SEE, IS NOT WHAT YOU GET.") ---------------------- The fact of life is that in today�s new environment of masa politics, popularity is all and programs of government count for nothing among the masa majority of voters, for whom politics is entertainment, not the science or art of governance. Sad, but that is the reality, and no amount of sanctimonious anger, no amount of religious zealotry, is going to change that anytime soon. It is also futile raging against it unless one has the communications skills to connect with the masa long enough to educate them, which cannot be said of any of the trapo or religious candidates. ***** (TRUE....BUT POPULARITY IN THE MOVIES DO NOT TRANSLATE AUTOMATICALLY INTO ELECTORAL OR VOTER SUPPORT AT THE PRECINCT POLLS ON ELECTION DAY. I PREDICT A RUDE AWAKENING FOR FPJ AND HIS MINSTRELS - THAT IS, IF HE WILL EVEN LAST THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL. Pepeton J�anton, [email protected] December 27, 2003 MY REPLY: I am not the �media man Antonio Abaya� who is a member of President Arroyo�s political campaign team. That Antonio Abaya is the husband of Annabelle Abaya, one-time spokeswoman of President Ramos. As you can see, Annabelle and her Antonio have the unique talent for inserting themselves into the corridors of power no matter who is president. I do not have that talent. May I suggest that, next time, you keep your comments short, sweet and snappy, as viewers may not have the patience to read your long perorations through to the end. ................................................................................... Say, that reminds me, Tony. Maybe, the COPA guys have you mixed up with that other Tony Abaya. Or did you also write for Philippine Daily Inquirer at one time?���. Pepeton J�anton, [email protected] December 27, 2003 MY REPLY. To answer your questions, I never wrote for the Philippine Daily Inquirer. I do not know if your COPA friends mistook me for the other Tony Abaya, and � as Clark Gable said in �Gone with the Wind� � �frankly, my dear, I don�t give a damn� if they did or did not. OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO |
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