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| REFERENCE MATERIAL |
| WAS THERE MASSIVE FRAUD IN THE 2004 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS?
Manuel A. Alcuaz, Jr. I have analyzed the 2004 Election Results for the Presidential Elections at the provincial level and I can state that based on a comparison of the Congressional Canvass of Provincial COC�s and NAMFREL�s final report at the provincial level there was indeed massive fraud (Dagdag-Bawas) in most provinces in Muslim Mindanao. Unfortunately, this study was only made recently due to statements of then CBCP head Archbishop Capalla and Mr. Jose Concepcion that there was no massive fraud. I decided to investigate the possibility of massive fraud when the Hello Garci tapes became public. It is interesting that all I had to do was listen to GMA�s conversation with Garci and invariably the province they talked about had COC results in favor of GMA when the final NAMFREL provincial count indicated that FPJ would win with a significant margin. There was only one exception North Cotabato. In the Hello Garci tape Garclliano said he could not help GMA because of a certain �Atty. Sibol�. Roberto Versola and I agree that the NAMFREL count is a good benchmark for detecting massive fraud because in all other provinces the discrepancy between the provincial COC and the final NAMFREL count was less that 10%. In many cases less than 1%. Dagdag-Bawas becomes more obvious if one compares the difference in vote percentages for GMA and FPJ between the NAMFREL count and the increment between the COC and the NAMFREL count. (COC-NAMFREL) The following table summarizes these statistically impossible discrepancy that can only be produced by massive Dagdag-Bawas. In order to corroborate the existence of Dagdag-Bawas I also did an analysis on the Vice Presidential results in the same provinces. It is interesting that the COC and NAMFREL percentages for Noli and Loren where fairly close in Basilan, Sulu, Maguindanao, and Agusan del Norte. Surprisingly there was a pro Loren deviation in Sultan Kudarat. And deviations for Noli in Lanao del Sur, Tawi tawi, and Lanao del Norte. By failing to do Dagdag-Bawas for De Castro, the cheating for GMA becomes more obvious. The following comparison of NAMFREL provincial % shows that where FPJ leads Loren leads, where GMA leads Noli leads. These results confirm the fact that there was massive and obviouc Dagdag-Bawas for GMA not for de Castro. What happened? Was Garci really pressed for time to give GMA her 1M total victory? Did GMA intentionally make sure that her margin of victory was higher that De Castro? HOW DAGDAG-BAWAS WAS COMPUTED For every province I used the COC based totals of Congress provided by the staff of a Senator who loves our country and NAMFREL�s summary of ER�s by province and city in their Terminal Report. I subtracted NAMFREL�s final count from the Congressional Canvass for each province. This I call COC increment. I then computed the % of total votes for GMA and FPJ. You will note that the reversal in percentages is most glaring when you compare the NAMFREL % with the increment %. That is the smoke that signals the fraud that was committed. I computed the total increment in votes between COC and NAMFREL canvass and multiplied it by the NAMFREL percentage of vote to compute the NAMFREL trend for GMA and FPJ. I then subtracted the NAMFREL trend from the COC increment to get the dagdag for GMA and the bawas for FPJ to get the total dagdag-bawas in the province. BASILAN Basilan had a computed 103,360 dagdag-bawas as a percentage of total votes 75.8% was the highest. Gary: Hello, ma�am. Good evening. GMA: Hello, dun sa Lanao del Sur at Basilan, di raw nagmamatch ang SOV sa COC. Gary: Ang sinasabi nya, nawawala na naman ho? GMA: Hindi na nag-match. Gary: Hindi na nag-mamatch?May posibilidad na hindi magmatch kung hindi nila sinunod yung individual SOV ng mga munisipyo. Pero aywan ko lang ho kung sa atin pabor o hindi. Dun naman sa Basilan at Lanao Sur, ito ho yung ginawa nilang magpataas sa inyo, maayos naman ang paggawa eh. GMA: So nag-mamatch? Gary: Oho, sa Basilan, alam nyo naman ang mga military dun eh, hindi masyadong marunong kasi silang gumawa eh. FPJ had 73% of the votes and GMA had 20% in the NAMFREL tally. The incremental votes in the COC�s was 88% for GMA and 6% for FPJ. GMA % POE % Total Voters Total % COC: 79,702 58% 48,685 36% 136,297 100% NAMFREL: 12,162 20% 43,821 73% 59,647 44% COC Increment: 67,540 88% 4,864 6% 76,650 56% NAMFREL Trend: 15,629 56,312 76,650 56% Dagdag Bawas: 51,911 (51,448) Dagdag bawas = 103,359 My analysis indicates a probable �Dagdagr-Bawas� of 598,560 votes as shown below. Dagdag-Bawas % Total Voters Basilan 103,360 75.8 136,297 Sultan Kudarat 153,761 64.9 236,768 Lanao del Sur 134,505 57.9 232,010 Sulu 60,615 41.33 146,652 Tawi-tawi 31,389 35.86 87,520 Maguindanao 53,798 19.4 277,318 Lanao del Norte 38,843 12.35 314,577 Agusan del Norte 22,289 9.17 242,944 Total 598,560 In contrast the possible Dagdag-Bawas for VP candidates is summarized below: Dagdag-Bawas % Total Voters Basilan 2,000 1.6 126,130 Sultan Kudarat (37,675) 16.9 222,809 Lanao del Sur 39,971 22.6 176,222 Sulu 4,374 3.8 113,948 Tawi-tawi 7,621 11 69,970 Maguindanao 11,241 4 279,160 65,207 for de Castro (37,675) for Loren This deviation except for Sultan Kudarat, Lanao del Sur, and Tawi tawi indicate that the Dagdag-Bawas team was not manipulating the Vice Presidential results. WHAT MY ANALYSIS CAN DETECT? My analysis can only detect wholesale fraud. If the fraud was committed at the precinct level and the NAMFREL got a copy of the fraudulent ER, there would be no discrepancy between NAMFREL and the municipal COC. If the ER�s that GMA asks Garci about had arrived there is also a possibility that the NAMFREL count would incorporate the fraudulent ER. This could have happened in the following provinces, where GMA�s ratio of votes was unbelievably high. Pampanga is most obvious. Residents of Pampanga are surprised that GMA won in their province. Notice the provincial COC based % of votes for Pampanga and neighboring provinces. GMA FPJ Pampanga 80.4% 10.6% Bataan 22.4% 58% Bulacan 22.6% 48.1% La Union 18.7% 55.6% Nueva Ecija 20.5% 60.9% Pangasinan 41.3% 45.2% Tarlac 45.2% 35.8% People�s preferences will normally not change drastically as you cross provincial boundaries. However, the officials tallying the votes can be very different. The identification of cheating in these provinces and elsewhere has to be done at a more detailed level than my provincial level analysis. WHAT SHOULD BE DONE? The solution to cheating is not a change in form of government (it won�t work) or an emphasis in education (the kids and cadets are corrupted later in life) it is in punishment of the guilty. If we are to have honest elections and national consensus cheating and corruption must be punished. Start at the top. It would be nice if GMA would resign. But that is a tough job. Let us first get Joe Concepcion to resign from NAMFREL and apologize for the cover up he did. Garcilliano should be tracked down. And provincial election officials in provinces with massive Dagdag-Bawas should be prosecuted. The COMELEC should be overhauled. ooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo |
| Province Basilan Sultan Kudarat Lanao del Sur Sulu Tawi Tawi Maguindanao Lanao del Norte Aguasan del Norte |
| GMA 20% 20% 36% 32% 20% 59% 26% 55% |
| FPJ 73% 49% 47% 61% 75% 30% 40% 28% |
| FPJ 6% -6% 5% 21% -89% 17% 82% 12% |
| GMA 88% 77% 89% 76% 185% 83% 215% 59% |
| NAMFREL |
| COC-NAMFREL |
| Province Basilan Sultan Kudarat Lanao del Sur Sulu Tawi Tawi Maguindanao Lanao del Norte Aguasan del Norte |
| NDC 21.4% 44.3% 28.6% 36.1% 28.4 59.3% 47.6% 71.8% |
| Loren 78% 53.5% 70% 63% 70% 39.4% 50.7% 27.1% |
| Loren 76.5% 69.8% 44.2% 66.9% 4% 36.3% 35.8% 24.1% |
| NDC 22.8% 29.1% 49.7% 41.4% 97.3% 63.3% 63.5% 74.7% |
| NAMFREL |
| COC-NAMFREL |
| Province Basilan Sultan Kudarat Lanao del Sur Sulu Tawi Tawi Maguindanao Lanao del Norte Aguasan del Norte |
| GMA 20% 20% 36% 32% 20% 59% 26% 55% |
| FPJ 73% 49% 47% 61% 75% 30% 40% 28% |
| Loren 78% 53.3% 70% 63% 70% 39.4% 50.7% 27.1% |
| NDC 21.4% 44.3% 28.6% 36.1% 28.4% 59.3% 47.6% 71.8% |
| NAMFREL |
| COC-NAMFREL |
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