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| ON THE OTHER HAND |
| Once again, unhappy with democracy By Antonio C. Abaya July 5, 2002 For the third time in only three months, a nationwide survey by a credible polling organization has revealed (not surprisingly to this observer) that a majority of Filipinos are not happy with the way democracy is working in the Philippines. A survey conducted nationwide by the Social Weather Stations (SWS) with 1,200 respondents, from May 17 to June 3, revealed that only one out of three Filipinos is satisfied with how democracy is working here, according to stories in the July 5 issues of Today and the Philippine Daily Inquirer. (Excerpts from all three of these survey results are archived in the website www.tapatt.org). Readers of this column will recall that similar surveys conducted by Professor Jose Abueva and by Pulse Asia of Pepe Miranda three to four months ago revealed the same sentiments. There can be no more doubt about it. As far as most Filipinos are concerned, democracy sucks! That�s American-style democracy as mangled and distorted by Filipino politicians and political culture. The recent SWS survey says that only 35% of Filipinos are happy with the way democracy is working in this country, supposedly the lowest level since the SWS began conducting surveys on this issue in November 1991. Last year, the figure was 44%. SWS did not reveal what the numbers were for the years 1991 to 2000, only that those numbers have been noticeably going down since October 1999. ***** Why October 1999? The SWS did not offer any explanation. One can only guess that the presidency of Joseph Estrada had something to do with this downward trend in Filipinos� estimation of democracy. That a criminally inclined ignoramus like Erap can be elected president in a democratically conducted election speaks volumes about the validity and maturity of that democracy. It should be kept in mind that Chavit Singson�s Juetengate expose about Erap�s alleged involvement in illegal gambling and other peccadilloes did not explode until October 2000. But undoubtedly the string of scandals that marred his presidency in the intervening 12 months convinced many Filipinos, especially those in the ABC socio-economic class, that Philippine democracy was going from bad to worse. Public confidence in the democratic processes may be said to have hit rock bottom when his impeachment trial was aborted due to the impasse in the Senate over the incriminating envelope, the opening of which was blocked by Erap�s senator-allies. But that was in January 2001. If SWS is to be believed, and I see no reason why it shouldn�t be, the downward spiral has continued to June 3, 2002, the end date of its last survey. That means that the 17-month presidency of Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo has not arrested people�s disenchantment with Philippine-style democracy. That also means that if this 9-point decline, from 44% in June 2001 to 35% in June 2002, is not reversed soon, it could drop by another 9 points to 26% in June 2003, and another 9 points to 17% by the time presidential elections roll in in May 2004. GMA, therefore has to make democracy work in the intervening 22 months if she expects to be re-elected to a second term. Unless her handlers expect to ensure victory by means of massive cheating. Her recent hiring of political mercenaries, one involved in the massive cheating against Miriam Defensor-Santiago in 1992, the other involved in the widespread bribing of print and radio journalists as exposed in Singson�s documented revelations in 2000, could send the wrong signals to the ABC class already irreversibly cynical of trapos and trapo politics, the twin pillars of Philippine democracy. ***** Can GMA reverse this pronounced disenchantment with democracy? Certainly there is adequate time for some top-to-bottom house-cleaning and for the hiring of new faces with new ideas into her executive team. But can she be convinced to undertake these twin initiatives? In her favor is the fact that, so far, she has no serious rival for the presidency in 2004. VP Tito Guingona has expressed his intention to challenge her, but the issue over which he has split from her (the presence of American troops in Mindanao) will not likely catch fire as survey after survey has shown that the vast majority of Filipinos are in favor of that presence. Erap�s designated successor, Sen. Ping Lacson, faces some very serious court cases, from perjury to money-laundering to murder and drug trafficking. He may elect to quietly slip out of the country rather than face prosecution and possible long jail sentences. Erap himself is not likely to run for any office in 2004, but he could conceivably strike a bargain with GMA: support for GMA from his masang tanga constituency in exchange for a presidential pardon before 2004. Raul Roco has been hibernating in the DECS cave for so long he could be mistaken for a bear when he finally comes out into the sunlight. Fernando Poe Jr. must be considered a last throw of the dice for the Erap camp, to be resorted to only when the putative bargain with GMA above does not fly. GMA�s strongest and most troublesome �rival� will be the 65% of Filipinos, especially among the ABC socio-economic class, who are not happy with the workings of Philippine-style democracy which she represents. If that percentage goes up some more, there may be no elections in 2004. ***** This article appears in the July 22, 2002 issue of the Philippine Weekly Graphic magazine. |