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| ON THE OTHER HAND |
| She's Not Smiling
By Antonio C. Abaya Written on July 07, 2008 For the Standard Today, July 08 issue President Arroyo does not seem to be in the mood for smiling these days. With so many problems piling up at her door, who can blame her for suddenly becoming either invisible or glum? But having gotten used to seeing her smiling or grinning from ear to ear on the front pages of newspapers everyday or almost everyday, I am a bit puzzled by her sudden invisibility � at the very least, her less than cheerful facial expressions in the few instances that her pictures have recently appeared. President Arroyo arrived on Monday, June 30. Or more exactly, at 2:30 am the following day, July 01. Her arrival marked, finally, the soft, perennially-postponed inauguration of NAIA Terminal 3, as noted in the Inquirer of July 01.. Of course, there were no photos in the newspapers of that day, July 01, as it was way past the newspapers' deadlines. But neither were there any photos of that inaugural arrival in subsequent days, at least not in the two newspapers that I get, the Manila Standard Today and the Philippine Daily Inquirer. On July 01, President Arroyo went to Baler, Quezon, to attend the sixth annual celebration of the Filipino-Spanish Friendship Day, but no photos of that event appeared in the newspapers the next day, July 02. Instead, the Inquirer of July 02 ran a banner photo on its front page of President Arroyo at the door of the presidential helicopter, waving to a send-off crowd on Sibuyan Island., But she is not broadly smiling. The Standard Today ran a full-spread photo on page 2, sprinkling holy water on the sea that had claimed hundreds of lives, but with her back to the camera. It ran another photo, on page 3, of her presiding over a Cabinet meeting in Iloilo, looking rather tired and glum. There were no photos of her in either paper on July 03. On July 4, the Standard Today showed her, on page 7, shoveling dirt during the ground-breaking ceremonies for Shangri-la in The Fort. She is not smiling. On its page 21, the Inquirer ran her picture (or her silhouette) attending a meeting connected with the "Philippine Food Security Program," but it is not possible to see her facial expression because she is literally in the shadow of Danding Conjuangco. On July 5, the Standard Today, on its page 2, showed her greeting with the very faintest smile Ilocos Norte Governor Bongbong Marcos during the inauguration of � don't laugh � a rock quarry. Surely, the President of the Republic has more important matters to attend to than inaugurating a rock quarry. The Inquirer carried no photo of this historic event. More significantly, neither newspaper that day carried any photo of President Arroyo toasting the American Ambassador the previous day, the Fourth of July, in a traditional diplomatic reception, to which she was undoubtedly invited, but which she apparently chose not to attend, in favor of Bongbong's rock quarry.. Like a Kremlinologist trying to decipher the power plays in the late, unlamented Soviet Union from photographs of the Soviet leaders gathered on top of Lenin's Tomb, I have to ask. Is President Arroyo merely too exhausted and too jet-lagged to flash her trademark smiles? Or is she carrying the emotional burden of a major disappointment? I am not referring merely to her inability to meet Barack Obama face-to-face. I am referring to possible American refusal to play along with her plans for 2009 and 2010. Nothing to smile about. ***** I AM ALSO NOT SMILING THESE DAYS. Last April, my computer inexplicably lost its ability to send and receive emails for two whole weeks.. On May 11, my website � www.tapatt.org � mysteriously disappeared from cyberspace. We contacted Yahoo Google for an explanation. They offered none. Then on May 30, just as mysteriously, my website re-appeared, without any explanation from anyone. During the last six days of June � coincidentally or not, after my articles Protecting her Flanks and Weird - my zpdee.net account was bombarded with hundreds (about 900 in all) of alleged bounced emails, giving all kinds of explanations for the alleged bounces, from email addresses that are not even in our address book. There were, for example, about 30 email addresses beginning with "eric' followed by different alphanumerics . I checked our email address book: we do not have a single email address that begins with "eric." . After several days of frustrating contacts with zpdee � and they with their parent company info.com � the flood of phony bounced emails finally stopped, and I could again receive email on my zpdee account. But up to now I still cannot send anything out.. So for the time being, because of the time eaten up side-stepping these apparent acts of harassment, I am not electronically sending out the readers' Reactions to earlier columns. These can be accessed on acabaya.blogspot.com and on www.tapatt.org. Please send all reactions to [email protected]. Do not send anything to my zpdee address which will be terminated soon. ***** Reactions to [email protected]. More articles in www.tapatt.org and in acabaya.blogspot.com. . To subscribe, send as blank email with the subject heading Subscribe. To unsubscribe, send a blank email with the subject heading Unsubscribe. OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO Reactions to "She's not Smiling" More Reactions to "Protecting Her Flanks" More Reactions to "Electoral Reforms" 'Why the Dollar Bubble is about to Burst' Hello, Tony. I truly commiserate with your predicament. What I can't understand is the idiotic attempts to muzzle you. It seems that they don't understand human nature � the more you prevent it, the more it will spread. With regards to our dear President, you may be right. It seems that Barrack Obama will be the new President on November, and GMA cannot expect any support from him. Well, if she intends to step down on 2010, she wouldn't care less. Best regards, Bong L. Alba, (by email), July 07, 2008 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Mr. Abaya, Undoubtedly, the success of your column is prompting "someone" or "some organization" to sabotage your columns. This is in violation of an individual's "Right to Freedom of the Press." But you've side-stepped this by asking your readers to send their response/reaction to: [email protected]. BRAVO! Hopefully, gmail will refuse "outside or external influence" to sabotage your columns. Hopefully, your faithful readers will follow you and continue reading your articles via: acabaya.blogspot.com and www.tapatt.org. I certainly will. Pierre Tierra, (by email), Great Falls, Virginia, July 07, 2008 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww. Tony, That's what you get for limiting yourself to YOUR newspaper and that tabloid masquerading as broadsheet, aka, "PDI." Will you be joining them soon? (I have neither the time nor the inclination to read more than two Manila newspapers. At any rate, since I get one pro-Arroyo and one anti-Arroyo paper, I get a balanced picture. Oh, you didn't know that MST is pro-Arroyo? Try us sometime. A faithful Arroyo apologist like you would feel at home in our editorial embrace. ACA) Your analysis of the President's smiles or lack of it, in your two favorite newspapers, brings to the fore another expertise we never knew you are gifted with. (Live and learn. ACA) Re your computer problem, baka naman paranoia na yan, Tony. (If your emails were blocked coming and going for two weeks in April, then your website disappears for 19 days in May, then your inbox is bombarded in June with 900 alleged bounced messages from people you never sent anything to, what would you call that? Coincidences? Don't you believe in Intelligent Design. ACA) C'mon, don't explode now. Cool, man! Remember the Tagalog saying: Ang pikon palaging talo! Also, as someone said: "Don't take life too seriously, no one comes out of it alive anyway." Smile! Laugh at yourself once in a while, Tony. Good for the soul, or one's mental health (whichever you believe in). Spend more time listening to the classics. (FYI I listen to classical music and/or watch films on DVD every night. I also work in my garden ACA). Shalom! (Shalom!. ACA) Ed J. T.Tirona, (by email), Paranaque City, July 07, 2008 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Menopausal period? Mafe Cornelio, (by email), July 08, 2008 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Hi ACA, to answer your curiosity re GMA's sour face lately, let me guess: She's having a bad hair day? Big Mike is misbehaving? With the one-year restriction on political appointment over, the 2007 election senatorial losers are driving her crazy with requests for cabinet appointments? She's still sulking over the snub she got from Obama? It was not enough he called to apologize, he stood up a president and Obama is not even a president yet. What nerve, Miriam must have said! Big Mike is misbehaving? Her spokesmen have not done a good job explaining why it was impossible for her to abort that US trip in spite of the loss of 800 lives caused by the sinking of the MV Princess of the Stars owned by the Perwisyo Lines and the massive destruction brought by Frank? I don't mean Drilon. Her apprehension the $3,000 "eco-friendly" gown may not be ready yet for her to wear at the Asean Science and Technology celebration? Big Mike is misbehaving? Her appeal to keep the 12 percent VAT as one of the major sources of government revenue has fallen on deaf ears as the CBCP is insistent in removing it to relieve the suffering people from the soaring prices of goods and services? She missed the Pacquiao-Diaz match live in Vegas? Big Mike is misbehaving again? Probably not. Ping and Allan have been very quiet lately. Cesar M. de los Reyes, (by email), July 08, 2008 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Dear Sir Tony; Maybe PGMA isn't smiling anymore precisely for the reasons you stated. Who would? Plus, if her role as 'mother' of this nation has kicked in - the recent spat of fuel increases, prices of food increasing, investigations left and right, issues with national security and safety which her people cannot even maintain (DOTC/Marina/Coast Guard), corruption scandals following her like anything, I don't think anyone would smile at all. There are too many things that need to be corrected and implemented and maybe she is seeing the truth that the people she appointed into these offices aren't doing their jobs right. Maybe she also finally realized that staying on past 2010 isn't worth the aggravation anymore. She wants this country ISO certified in every aspect and angle but the people she placed in strategic agencies and offices aren't even ISO certified... they're certified for sure but not ISO... if you get my drift. Maybe she's only being human as well. Any normal working parent like us hardly smile anymore either given how fast our monthly budget isn't fitting our needs anymore either. Even the "libreng smile" in McDonalds isn't there anymore either. With a recent GMA7 report that gas prices are expected to go past the P70/liter mark - who would like to smile with that looming in the horizon? PGMA can't do anything about it, no one can do anything about OPEC or oil suppliers in the middle east. Everything in our country is re-active and not pro-active. People she placed in vital government agencies don't have much of a foresight to do long term planning and reviews or else we wouldn't be in such a mess and she's been president for how many years now? Maybe she's considering taking their heads off but in any company or organization - accountability runs to the head (which is her) because the leader should drive her people to do better and be ten steps AHEAD of her and not behind her. Leadership accountability. But then again - she did this to herself as well - placing people without the skills and know-how, the teeth, the balls to implement programs properly in agencies that are vital to the self-sufficiency of this nation. Unfortunately, the Filipinos pay for it with their lives and livelihood. I really hope she heeds the call for better leadership and change these inefficient people she appointed and put better non-partisan, non-political, sincere people with integrity in these vital agencies so that we'd be self-sufficient with food sources, our transportation systems are safe, sources of alternative energy can be developed, basic government services are delivered and maintained at a high level consistently, environmental development and waste management should be the focus as well. Enough of paying back favors. Best regards, Jenifer A. Xavier, (by email), July 08, 2008 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Dear Mr. Abaya, The president is not smiling nowadays since her best laid plans to prolong her stay in Malacanang � whether by cha-cha or martial law � has been effectively scuttled. You are probably right that she was not able to get a green light in Washington for the latter. The present economic shambles, the natural calamities, and her (mis)management of both, shuts out the former. Regards, Enrico D.. Hidalgo, (by email), July 08, 2008 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Dear Tony: I was wondering when anyone would notice that GMA forgot how to smile when she got back from her US junket. Maybe the hard time gate-crashing some photo-ops with Bush, McCain and Obama wiped her smile off permanently - or did she leave her smile with Jocjoc Bolante? It's obvious she's got problems coming from that trip - and the fact that she didn't even have the time to attend a Fourth of July bash with her friend US Ambassador Kenney is the confirmation. What's not good for GMA has to be good for the Filipino. Let's just wait for the other shoe to drop. It shouldn't be long now. Her people, especially "Mangmang" Pulis Razon, say a coup is coming soon - and point to Bono Adaza as the leader. But AFP CoS Yano says there's no coup. Whether there is or isn't may be academic as the economic and political crises are now beginning to intersect. Soon it may be "Bye, bye Gloria!" And then the Filipinos can smile. Tito Osias, (by email), July 08, 2008 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Hi Tony: That rock quarry owned by Bongbong Marcos, inaugurated and attended by no less than the president of the Philippine Republic, has raised my curiosity. You did not elaborate the significance of that special rock quarry or Mr. Marcos specifically for that matter. Please keep us informed. Thanks. Martin Celemin, (by email), Las Vegas, Nevada, July 08, 2008 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Dear Tony: I usually refrain from making guesses, not even "educated" guesses. To me, guessing and predicting are quite hazardous; more often than not the "guesser" or the "predicter" falls flat on his face because actual events prove him wrong. But I am rather intrigued why President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo uncharacteristically has refused to smile in public these days, as she is wont to do. If the reason is not that her facial muscles cramp these days, or that she is suffering from gingivitis which makes smiling painful, then the possibility is that the real reason is not physical. It could very well be emotional, with roots in a very serious political development.. From your narrative, a good possibility--nay probability--is her last meeting with the White House Great Father who you say is not in favor of GMA staying in power beyond 2010 (when her term expires), no matter what the pretext. To any politician who has thoughts of holding on to power at whatever cost and by whatever Machiavellian means, an American president's "No-no" to a Filipino politician is simply devastating. In the event, Mrs. Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo refusing to smile these days would be quite understandable. She is only human. And she is an ambitious politician. Mariano Patalinjug, (by email), Yonkers, NY, July 08, 2008 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww It's not her smile that bothers me, but what is beneath the theatrics of it all. Mona Lisa elicited many stories. GMA's smile raises a similar question - Boy or girl ? Good or bad ? Saint or evil ? Your guess is as good as mine. But whatever, or whichever, what you see is not what it is. That is a skill - to show what you are truly not. Victor Manalac, (by email), July 09, 2008 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Hi Tony How can GMA smile when her days of hoarding the P40 plus plus BILLION a year windfall VAT is nearing an end. Reality time. She can't keep the stash and keep starving people at the same time and stay ALIVE. Its crunch time !! The barking dogs in congress will have to face their hungry and angry constituents sooner than later. And she is getting pressure from them as well. Cracks will show soon. Just wait for December 2008, assuming oil does not jump to USD 200 earlier. Aanohin pa ang damo kung patay na ang Kabalen?? 2010 is on the line and so is her head. She knows..so..sad, no smile. Eric Manalang, (by email), (by email), July 08, 2008 Ang Kapatiran Party wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Hello Mang Tony, Maybe all the frustrations has finally gotten into her nerve. I couldn't imagine how the madame president was still all smiles despite all the attacks on her in the past weeks, months or years. She has gone so insensitive and numbed. In this last few months of her term, she maybe is still smart enough, after all, not to sense that nothing is working out well as she wishes to be. Well, she can only wish as she really is doing nothing about all these misfortunes of Filipinos. Fuel prices rising every week, investment portfolios are being withdrawn from the stock market, inflation rising by about 1.5 % every month, the 2007 best performing currency became the worst performing in 2008, the Sulpicio lines tragedy, etc., and we are just past midway 2008, and still about two years into her term. That will be 24 months of agony. The people are waiting for the government to offer solutions to all of these, but there is none, zilch, nada. Her blah, blah, blah is even no longer working. She failed to sell the Philippines, because there was nothing to sell anymore. During these critical times, the people feel that she had completely abandoned them. Anyhow, she never was my President. I hope that before she smiles again, she bring all the smiles to the people's faces first. It's so insensitive of her to smile in hypocrisy while the people grimace in agony. Edilberto Anit, (by email), July 08, 2008 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Tony: Rejoice! The cyber attacks can only mean one thing: you're hitting the mark. Your thoughts hurt the corrupt, the pretenders, the callous and the arrogant power wielders. They will soon get what they deserve from the people they have long abused and trampled upon. Dan Jimenez, (by email), July 09, 2008 Dan, Mel and Jim wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Hi Tony, For a Head of State to be snubbed especially by Very Important People in this planet, is not an easy thing to mull about. As "a constituent" I should feel bad too, but I don't! The subject brought it upon herself and of course the imminent scenario after 2010 could drive one into panic starting with the impending trial before the International "Jury of Nations" for crimes against humanity! Without someone the likes of Senator Miriam Santiago in that body and of course the fact that she feels the United States would not be on her side this time around, is why the glum face? I am also reminded that it was her late father, the former President Diosdado Macapagal who changed our Independence Day from July 4 to June 12. The Great White Father never forget things like these! Of course you have to add to this her "Open About-Face-Foreign-Policy", which is an act of defiance and insult to a benefactor-protector. Students of history must always keep in mind our past and what to expect in the future. If we choose to burn our bridges to faithful friends, it's our look-out, but we have to be ready for its consequence(s). She should fire her foreign policy advisers. Thank you and continue to keep us informed. Jose Regino, (by email), Zamboanga City, July 09, 2008 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Tony, The President is in mourn, for the people, who passed away of the previous tragedies. GMA, has difficult situations, if she smile, her critics will say " how she can afford to smile, when hundreds died etc...." Benjamin Pablo, (by email), July09, 2008 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Badly treated in her US trip? 15 minutes audience with McCain and Barack just merely calling her up? What does Bush have to say about her having another term of office under some pretext? Was she able to achieve her aim of protecting her flanks by this kind of treatment? What did she do on the Fourth of July, Phil-Am Friendship day? What a weird presidential state visit at the expense of the people's money!? Santos Payumo, (by email), July 10, 2008 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww More Reactions to "Protecting Her Flanks" (June 24, 2008) Dear Tony: Please write about the scams under the Arroyo regime , including the Hello Garci scandal wherein Mrs. Arroyo made an apology on TV . Will the Filipino people get justice under Mrs.Arroyo ? We want to know the score. We hope the evil, the thieves and the bitches will be punished finally. Best regards. God Bless you. Reggie Gazmen, (by email), July 13, 2008 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww I share the grief of Gerry Garay on the tragic lost of a loved one in sea disaster involving Gothong's operated shipping vessels. There is much to be desired in protecting the lives of innocent passengers. Indeed certifying the sea worthiness of every commercial vessels plying the Philippine waters has been left to chance and driven by corruption. The government has failed to protect its own citizens on matters of safety and security. The 90 million Filipinos are destined to fend for themselves. Dr. Nestor P. Baylan, (by email), New York City, July 14, 2008 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Tony, Need I say more? Everything's been said by the reactors. On Obama, I somehow share the view that the guy although articulate and seems to always say the right things nevertheless lacks the implementing capacity or will to follow through with determined action (in short integrity). McCain is OK especially with his military background which I share but I do not share his views on Iraq. My gut feel tells me Hillary would have made a better president than either one. She is smart, experienced, has guts, and compassion. On Biazon, I had more respect for the guy until his blabbermouth on the US carrier relative to the latest sea tragedy. BTW we both got awarded the Distinguished Conduct Star after helping defend the government from coup plotters in Dec 1989. I have to agree, the 4 star general and former chief of staff of three months only lived up to his truest character -- the class "goat"! He should think more and talk less. On the "junket" what more can I say -- eh totoo naman eh! What could be more callous than forsaking around 800 of your people who lost their lives by dishonoring them with one's absence! What can be more important than attending to such horrendous tragedy? Obama? He didn't even see her. McCain? He hasn't won yet! Bush? He's a lameduck! Pacquiao? Well, you can always see him here at home where he lives! Dennis Acop, (by email), July 15, 2008 Col. (Ret.), USMA '83 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww More Reactions to "Electoral Reforms" (May 20, 2008) Mr. Antonio C. Abaya's proposal giving " qualifying examinations " to aspiring candidates who want to serve in the government , is a brilliant proposal ! This should cover all public service positions from the president down to the lowest ranking position in the Barangay level . Such policy will undoubtedly inspire the private sector into doing the same ,resulting in the creation of a pool of highly qualified , morally upright candidates that could be elected into office as public servants. Such a move will effectively separate the fit from the unfit , the literate from the illiterate , the capable from the incapable , the authentic from the fake , etc.,etc. And this would be for the whole world to see and judge. This is the kind of proposal that needs to be presented ,studied and debated by the Filipino people , concerned civic organizations and agencies nationwide and before the Senate and the House of Representatives for final approval and enactment into law as soon as possible to preempt the crooks , the mentally deficient and the outright unqualified people from further inflicting harm and damage to society and government. A good example is Gloria Arroyo , who is known to every Filipino and the whole world as criminally inclined and prone to commiting reckless diplomatic maneuvers and sinister moves that are severely detrimental to the country and her constituents. Had there been some form of psychological tests given her beforehand , such character flaws would have been properly identified and exposed before the Filipino people , the diplomatic community and the rest of the world leaders. Corresponding rehabilitation in the field of mental health for this person would have been raised , advised and issued with all the accompanying condemnations befitting crooked leaders like her by world leaders via the United Nations before she could fully assume office and go into a disaster-causing mode. Other examples are the legal counsel of Gloria Arroyo , Atty.Sergio Apostol , and her justice secretary , Raul Gonzalez . To an alert and objective observer,their seemingly abnormal behavior, incoherence and senseless line of reasoning before the cameras , are indicative that these two gentlemen are not only UNQUALIFIED , but are also full-fledged aging retards misbehaving and masquerading as legal hotshots. This is a good way to solve the many ills and anomalies most of us see and experience both in the pblic and the private sectors. To an alert and objective observer , there is no denying that countless of these UNQUALIFIED leaders are now walking lazily around goverment and private institutions and offices , pretending to be busy , looking up intermittently at the ceiling ,reading magazines and newspapers , playing a leisurely game of golf with cronies and friends during office hours , while receiving hefty salaries and lucrative benefits without lifting a finger , or doing anything productive or constructive. Another example is Senator Miriam Defensor Santiago , who for some unknown reasons , could not control herself before fellow senators by yelling and screaming hysterically everytime she communicates on the senate floor , displaying all the signs and symptoms of a mentally -deranged person. She used to be composed and well-mannered when she was a student at the University of the Philippines having served as president of the Student Council and later on as member of the faculty at the College of Law. Another example is retired general Esperon , who made it to the highest rung of the military ladder even without the backbone and the intellect that need to complement the job. His only known area of expertise is cheating smoothly like a professional magician . And that's good enough for his sweet-smiling boss , Gloria Arroyo. So you see , ladies and gentlemen , giving " qualifying examinations " to candidates seeking a career in public service is of utmost importance. May all the politicians read and understand the sentiments of the Filipino people and behave accordingly . Cheers ! Juan de la Cruz, Jr., [email protected], July 15, 2008 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Forwarded to Tapatt by Ray Eced, author not indicated) Why the Dollar Bubble is about to Burst The Voice http://www.scottishsocialistvoice.net/back%20issues%2006/issue%20264.htm (issue 264 - 11th May 2006 page 8) ran an article beginning, 'Iran has really gone and done it now. No, they haven't sent their first nuclear sub in to the Persian Gulf. They are about to launch something much more deadly -- next week the Iran Bourse will open to trade oil, not in dollars but in Euros' This apparently insignificant event has consequences far greater for the US people, indeed all for us all, than is imaginable. Currently almost all oil buying and selling is in US-dollars through exchanges in London and New York. It is not accidental they are both US-owned. The Wall Street crash in 1929 sparked off global depression and World War II. During that war the US supplied provisions and munitions to all its allies, refusing currency and demanding gold payments in exchange. By 1945, 80% of the world's gold was sitting in US vaults. The dollar became the one undisputed global reserve currency -- it was treated world-wide as `safer than gold'. The Bretton Woods agreement was established. The US took full advantage over the next decades and printed dollars like there was no tomorrow. The US exported many mountains of dollars, paying for ever-increasing amounts of commodities, tax cuts for the rich, many wars abroad, mercenaries, spies and politicians the world over. You see, this did not affect inflation at home! The US got it all for free! Well, maybe for a forest or two. Over subsequent decades the world's vaults bulged at the seams and more and more vaults were built, just for US dollars. Each year, the US spends many more dollars abroad that at home. Analysts pretty much agree that outside the US, of the savings, or reserves, of all other countries, in gold and all currencies -- that a massive 66% of this total wealth is in US dollars! In 1971 several countries simultaneously tried to sell a small portion of their dollars to the US for gold. Krassimir Petrov, (Ph. D. in Economics at Ohio University) recently wrote http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1137510262.php , 'The US Government defaulted on its payment on August 15, 1971. While popular spin told the story of `severing the link between the dollar and gold', in reality the denial to pay back in gold was an act of bankruptcy by the US Government.' The 1945 Bretton Woods agreement was unilaterally smashed. The dollar and US economy were on a precipice resembling Germany in 1929. The US now had to find a way for the rest of the world to believe and have faith in the paper dollar. The solution was in oil, in the petrodollar. The US viciously bullied first Saudi Arabia and then OPEC to sell oil for dollars only -- it worked, the dollar was saved. Now countries had to keep dollars to buy much needed oil. And the US could buy oil all over the world, free of charge. What a Houdini for the US! Oil replaced gold as the new foundation to stop the paper dollar sinking. Since 1971, the US printed even more mountains of dollars to spend abroad. The trade deficit grew and grew. The US sucked-in much of the world's products for next to nothing. More vaults were built. Expert, Coilin Nunan, wrote in 2003 (http://www.feasta.org/documents/review2/nunan.htm) , 'The dollar is the de facto world reserve currency: the US currency accounts for approximately two thirds of all official exchange reserves. More than four-fifths of all foreign exchange transactions and half of all world exports are denominated in dollars. In addition, all IMF loans are denominated in dollars.' Dr Bulent Gukay of Keele University recently wrote, 'This system of the US dollar acting as global reserve currency in oil trade keeps the demand for the dollar `artificially' high. This enables the US to carry out printing dollars at the price of next to nothing to fund increased military spending and consumer spending on imports. There is no theoretical limit to the amount of dollars that can be printed. As long as the US has no serious challengers, and the other states have confidence in the US dollar, the system functions.' Until recently, the US-dollar has been safe. However, since 1990 Western Europe has been busy growing, swallowing up central and Eastern Europe. French and German bosses were jealous of the US ability to buy goods and people the world over for nothing. They wanted a slice of the free cake too. Further, they now had the power and established the euro in late 1999 against massive US-inspired opposition across Europe, especially from Britain - paid for in dollars of course. But the euro succeeded. Only months after the euro-launch, Saddam's Iraq announced it was switching from selling oil in dollars only, to euros only -- breaking the OPEC agreement. Iran, Russia, Venezuela, Libya, all began talking openly of switching too -- were the floodgates about to be opened? Then aeroplanes flew into the twin-towers in September 2001. Was this another Houdini chance to save the US (petro) dollar and the biggest financial/economic crash in history? War preparations began in the US. But first war-fever had to be created -- and truth was the first casualty. Other oil producing countries watched-on. In 2000 Iraq began selling oil in euros. In 2002, Iraq changed all their petro-dollars in their vaults into euros. A few months later, the US began their invasion of Iraq. The whole world was watching: very few aware that the US was engaging in the first oil currency, or petrodollar war. After the invasion of Iraq in March 2003, remember, the US secured oil areas first. Their first sales in August were, of course, in dollars, again. The only government building in Baghdad not bombed was the Oil Ministry! It does not matter how many people are murdered -- for the US, the petrodollar must be saved as the only way to buy and sell oil -- otherwise the US economy will crash, and much more besides. In early 2003, Hugo Chavez, President of Venezuela talked openly of selling half of its oil in euros (the other half is bought by the US). On 12 April 2003, the US-supported business leaders and some generals in Venezuela kidnapped Chavez and attempted a coup. The masses rose against this and the Army followed suit. The coup failed. This was bad for the US. In November 2000 the euro/dollar was at $0.82 dollars, its lowest ever, and still diving, but when Iraq started selling oil in euros, the euro dive was halted. In April 2002 senior OPEC reps talked about trading in euros and the euro shot up. In June 2003 the US occupiers of Iraq switched trading back to dollars and the euro fell against the dollar again. In August 2003 Iran starts to sell oil in euros to some European countries and the euro rises sharply. In the winter of 2003-4 Russian and OPEC politicians talked seriously of switching oil/gas sales to the euro and the euro rose. In February 2004 OPEC met and made no decision to turn to the euro -- and yes, the euro fell against the dollar. In June 2004 Iran announced it would build an oil bourse to rival London and New York, and again, the euro rose. The euro stands at $1.27 and has been climbing of late. But matters this month became far, far worse for the US dollar. On 5th May Iran registered its own Oil Bourse, the IOB. Not only are they now selling oil in euros from abroad -- they have established an actual Oil Bourse, a global trading centre for all countries to buy and sell their oil! In Chavez's recent visit to London; he talked openly about supporting the Iranian Oil Bourse, and selling oil in euros. When asked in London about the new arms embargo imposed by the US against Venezuela, Chavez prophetically dismissed the US as 'a paper tiger'. Currently, almost all the world's oil is sold on either the NYMEX, New York Mercantile Exchange, or the IPE, London's International Petroleum Exchange. Both are owned by US citizens and both sell and buy only in US dollars. The success of the Iran Oil Bourse makes sense to Europe, which buys 70% of Iran's oil. It makes sense for Russia, which sells 66% of its oil to Europe . But worse for the US, China and India have already stated they are very interested in the new Iranian Oil Bourse. If there is a tactical-nuclear strike on - deja-vu - `weapons of mass destruction' in Iran, who would bet against a certain Oil Exchange and more, being bombed too? And worse for Bush. It makes sense for Europe, China, India and Japan-- as well as all the other countries mentioned above -- to buy and sell oil in Euros. They will certainly have to stock-up on euros now, and they will sell dollars to do so. The euro is far more stable than the debt-ridden dollar. The IMF has recently highlighted US economic difficulties and the trade deficit strangling the US-- there is no way out. The problem for so many countries now is how to get rid of their vaults full of dollars, before it crashes? And the US has bullied so many countries for so many decades around the world, that many will see a chance to kick the bully back. The US cannot accept even 5% of the world's dollars -- it would crash the US economy dragging much of the world with it, especially Britain. To survive, as the Scottish Socialist Voice article stated, 'the US, needs to generate a trade surplus to get out of this one. Problem is it can't.' This is spot on. To do that they must force US workers into near slavery, to get paid less than Chinese or Indian workers. We all know that this will not happen. What will happen in the US? Chaos for sure. Maybe a workers revolution, but looking at the situation as it is now, it is more likely to be a re-run of Germany post-1929, and some form of extreme-right mass movement will emerge. Does Europe and China/Asia have the economic independence and strength to stop the whole world's economies collapsing with the US? Their vaults are full to the brim with dollars. The US has to find a way to pay for its dollar-imperialist exploitation of the world since 1945. Somehow, eventually, it has to account for every dollar in every vault in the world. Bombing Iran could backfire tremendously. It would bring Iran openly into the war in Iraq, behind the Shiite majority. The US cannot cope even now with the much smaller Iraqi insurgency. Perhaps the US will feed into the Sunni v Shiite conflict and turn it into a wider Middle-East civil-war. However, this is so dangerous for global oil supplies. Further, they know that this would be temporary, as some country somewhere else, will establish a euro-oil-exchange, perhaps in Brussels. There is one `solution' -- scrap the dollar and print a whole new currency for the US. This will destroy 66% of the rest of the world's savings/reserves in one swoop. Imagine the implications? Such are the desperate things now swimming around heads in the White House, Wall Street and Pentagon. Another is to do as Germany did, just before invading Poland in 1938. The Nazis filmed a mock Polish Army attack on Germany, to win hearts and minds at home. But again, this is a finger in the dam. So, how is the US going to escape this time? The only global arena of total superiority left is military. Who knows what horrors lie ahead. A new world war is one tool by which the US could discipline its `allies' into keeping the dollar in their vaults. The task of socialists today is to explain to as may as possible, especially our class, that the coming crisis belongs purely to capitalism and (dollar) imperialism. Not people of other cultures, not Islam, not the axis of evil or their so-called WMDs. Their system alone is to blame. The new Iranian Oil Bourse, the IOB, is situated in a new building on the free-trade-zone island of Kish, in the Persian Gulf. Its computers and software are all set to go. The IOB was supposed to be up and running last March, but many pressures forced a postponement. Where the pressure came from is obvious. It was internationally registered on 5th May and supposed to open mid-May, but its opening was put off, some saying the oil-mafia was involved, along with much international pressure. Just google `pertroeuro' http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=petroeuro&btnG=Search , and the story lies before you. From now on, anyone in the know will wake up every morning and, even before coffee, will check out the latest exchange rate between the euro and dollar. ***** OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO All reactions to [email protected]. See Tony on YouTube at www.tapatt.org To subscribe, send a blank email with the subject heading Subscribe. To unsubscribe, send a blank email with the subject heading Unsubscribe. |