| National Stupidity Index By Antonio C. Abaya March 03, 2004 By ruling, 8 to 5, that Ronald Allan Poe or FPJ is a natural-born Filipino citizen, the Supreme Court has chosen not to risk the civil unrest that his followers were threatening to unleash on this endlessly troubled land should the decision have been otherwise. We can live with that. Natural-born or not, FPJ remains the most supremely unqualified person to run for the presidency of the Philippines since Pascual Racuyal became the perennial nuisance candidate against Manuel L. Quezon in the 1930s. FPJ is just a bigger nuisance, that�s all. That he is actually threatening to win the election in 2004 is a gauge of the rise in the level of national stupidity since the 1930s. The National Stupidity Index, or NSI, is as much an indicator, in inverse proportion, of a nation�s progress as the GDP, the GNP, the GIR, the FDI, the DSR and the NFI, and right now our NSI is at an all-time, record-breaking high, thanks to FPJ. But is his victory a foregone conclusion? Not anymore. In last week�s article, Fake Presidential Jerk, I noted that FPJ�s rating has actually been going down, based on the results of several surveys conducted by Pulse Asia and SWS: 45% in November, 36% in December, 34.6% in late January, 31.7% in early February. The very latest survey, by SWS between Feb. 17 and 25, puts it at 30.5%. And this was before his disastrously ho-hum Feb. 27 interview with Max Soliven on live TV, in which both of them actually looked and sounded more dead than alive, and which probably knocked off two or three more points from his 30.5%. Will FPJ now bounce back with the Supreme Court decision? I will not hazard a guess. As I said, our NSI is at an all-time high. It is hard to predict the behavior of irrational and inanimate objects, rather like the random Brownian movement of particles in colloidal suspension. Only the relatively new theory of chaos can find order and predictability in our endemic chaos, but the men in white smocks have not visited these shores yet. It is safe to predict, however, that with President Arroyo showing a very real capability of defeating FPJ fair and square in May, those rational and decent people who now support Raul Roco and Brother Eddie will be under increasing moral pressure, from their own inner good selves if not from others, to shift their support to PGMA, whatever reservations they may have about her and/or her husband, if only to make sure that the Fake Presidential Jerk stays in his movie set. In fact, Raul Roco and Brother Eddie themselves would be under pressure to withdraw from the race in favor of President Arroyo. The results of the latest SWS survey validate those of the latest by Pulse Asia: PGMA (31.8 in SWS, 31.9 in PA), FPJ (30.5-31.7), Roco (17.9-16.2), Lacson (11.4-10.7), Villanueva (1.8-1.2). The other polling groups just do not measure up and should be ignored. The above numbers show that if the supporters of President Arroyo, Roco and Villanueva were to join forces, their theoretical combined total would be about 52%, while the theoretical combined total of FPJ and Lacson would be about 42%, with the undecided swing vote making up 6%. Given FPJ�s adamant refusal to take part in any debate, the best way to ensure his defeat would be to convince Max Soliven to interview FPJ on live TV every week until May 10. The program can be called Saturday Night Dead. ***** BUT WHO OR WHAT HIT SUPERFERRY 14? Ultimately, however, the more important question may well be, not who will win on May 10, but who or what caused Superferry 14 to explode, catch fire and tip over on February 27 off Corregidor. This is so because, if the claims of the Abu Sayyaf are true � that they were responsible for it � then this is a major escalation of the Muslim secessionist war. And whoever wins in May 10, assuming there will be an election at all, faces a security nightmare of epic proportions. So far, President Arroyo and her spokesmen have pooh-poohed the Abu Sayyaf claims, saying that the AS are just riding on a tragic accident to earn propaganda points for themselves, or that this was just a case of human error, or that Coast Guard frogmen have not found any explosive residues or any pieces of shrapnel or any debris of twisted metal, (which would confirm the detonation of a bomb as the cause of the incident), or any hole in the ship�s hull. (Which may not be surprising, since they admit having inspected only 70% of the partially sunken ship.) But the claims of Abu Sayyaf chief Khaddafy Janjalani and AS spokesman Abu Soliman, released to media less than two days after the incident, are too detailed to be dismissed as a propaganda hoax: that this was an act of revenge for the war in Mindanao and the rape by soldiers of Muslim women, that their bomber was a certain Arnulfo Alvarado (real name: Abu Muadz, from Pata Island, Sulu) who was passenger 51 on the ship�s manifest and who occupied a Blue Cabin, that he called up from the ship describing the path that he would follow to plant his explosive, that this ship was chosen as target because it was the biggest inter-island vessel, that the explosive used was four times more powerful than the bomb used to destroy a Golden Transit bus on EDSA more than three years ago, etc. It is obvious that the maritime probers do not have the sensitive equipment or the adequate forensic skills to do a thorough investigation. It is unacceptable, for example, that a major explosion (at about 12:50 am), heard by everyone on board, would not leave any chemical residue in the confined ship compartment in which it happened. It is also unacceptable that they cannot find any puncture in the ship�s hull. Early morning pictures of the stricken ship show that it was listing to starboard (the right side, if you are facing in the same direction as the ship) even while it was still in deep waters. This means its hull had been ruptured below the waterline and the ship was taking in water because its bulkheads had not been secured in time. It was then towed towards Mariveles where it finally tipped over in the shallows, conceivably resting on the hole on its starboard side, which is why the frogmen cannot locate it from the outside. The Arroyo Government should ask for help from countries with respectable navies and maritime fleets (US, Japan, Australia), which would have the sensitive equipment and finely honed forensic skills to do a thorough investigation. It is important, for example, to determine if the explosive device was detonated inside the hull or outside. If it was detonated outside the ship, then it means that the Abu Sayyaf statement about Bomber Abu Muadz was a just a decoy to mislead investigators, to hide the probable real culprits: a team of Abu Sayyaf frogmen waiting on one of the islets off Corregidor for the slow-moving ship to pass through the narrow channel, where they then attached a magnetic limpet mine to its soft underbelly on its starboard side, the side facing the islets. This is not far-fetched. During the Second World War, one of the few successes of the Italians was the daring use of frogmen on board small and fast watercraft called E-Boats, who harassed Allied shipping in the Mediterranean with just such limpet mine attacks, while the bulk of the Italian Navy (battleships, cruisers, destroyers) sat out much of the war, with a few notable exceptions, in the relative safety of their home ports in Genoa and Brindisi rather than engage the British Royal Navy in the open seas. Whatever scenario is found to be the factual one, the warning of the Abu Sayyaf should send a chill down everyone�s spine: �This latest attack on Superferry 14 is just a sample of things to come. The Abu Sayyaf�s best action is yet to come. We will bring the war that you imposed on us to your lands and seas, homes and streets. We will multiply the pain and suffering that you inflicted on our people. We will do everything to punish the economy. May Allah punish you again through our hands.� (Philippine Daily Inquirer, March 01, 2004). The arrest of a man in Nueva Ecija the other day, an alleged convert to Islam, who was on his way to Manila to deliver substantial amounts of C-4 plastique explosives (�enough to level a building�) and other bomb-making paraphernalia, suggests that the Abu Sayyaf warning may not be an idle one.***** The bulk of this article appears in the March 13, 2004 issue of the Philippines Free Press magazine. Other articles may be viewed at www.tapatt.org. oooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo Reactions to �National Stupidity Index� On the Court decision: It appears that they don't even know the law and how to apply jurisprudence. Law, my dear sirs, is based on precedents (Paa vs. Chan, among others). Precedents may be overturned when there is right reasoning. See the history of Gideon vs. Wainright in the US, how it evolved from earlier cases. There appeared to be a little zig-zaging here but always it was butressed by reasoning. Poor Davide, Vitug and cohorts, they oughta know better. In short, many justices, but most especially the amicus idiots like Bernas, are just plain ignoramuses. I already exposed his lack of knowledge in law by his stupid remarks on the law of obscenity: New York vs. Random House. Idiot Poe may be meeting his comeuppance. It appears that Poe is not popular with a segment of the DE class, the younger ones. It seems that commentator Esposo had something valid to say. Poe has not made a popular movie in the past several years. According to Esposo, his San Miguel beer commercials were taken out years ago because it failed to register with the target crowd. Our experience with Erap may have been instructive. Poe even fares badly compared with Erap. This might be the real torpedo that will sink the idiot. As to the rescue of possibly trapped people in the ferry it appears that the Coast Guard does not even see movies. In a movie I saw eons ago the rescuers of a vessel which capsized tore a hole through the hull with blow torches. Simple common sense, admirals and commodores. Maybe these hombres are too preoccupied with their racket as a flag officer exposed some years ago. I have taken this tentative position: Better the crook than the idiot, like in France in the Chirac vs. La Pen: Better the crook than the fascist. Ross Tipon, [email protected] March 07, 2004 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww . The weakest link in management styles (strongest is dictatorial type) is democracy. Why? Every idiot reaching the voting age - no matter the severe acute mental deterioration - can and will vote. Same for candidates. No mental IQ or other tests is needed to file for candidacy. ((Sigh)). Bravo again, Tony. Saturday Night Dead..hey..I love that! Best and Bless. Tony Joaquin, [email protected] March 08, 2004 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww I have no opinion on whether or not the Abu S. had anything to do with the ferry tragedy. But I would like to point out two things. You cannot conclude that because a ship is listing to stbd, there was a puncture in the hull on the stbd side. It is likely, but it is not a given. That needs to be proven. Furthermore, it is not necessary to puncture the hull to let water into the ship. There are numerous holes in any ship. All one would need to do would be to blow up the pipe (a hand grenade taped to the pipe would probably work just fine) connected to the hole, and to start a fire big enough to keep people away from the main valve attached to the "Thru hull fitting" Second, forget about the Abus attaching a limpet mine to a moving ship. They would just attach it while the ship is in port. Peter Capotosto, [email protected] Commodore Taal Lake Yacht Club Past Commodore Manila Yacht Club Past OIC Opreations, Coast Guard Aux Squadron 101 March 08, 2004 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Dear Mr. Abaya, Having worked in a shipping company for several years, I read your article on Superferry 14 with great interest. In my opinion, it seems likely that the ship was a victim of a bomb detonated inside the vessel just as described by the Abu Sayyaf. Since you wrote your article, there have been regular reports in the daily newspapers stating that the rescuers/retrievers have been hampered by debris of twisted metal, and that several severed body parts have been retrieved. In the same breath, the same spokesmen say that it could not have been a bomb explosion because there is no twisted metal. No explanation for why body parts are severed has been given, but clearly, from the description of the survivors who all claim to have heard explosions, and from the description of the wrecked interior, it seems clear that there was a powerful explosion that led to the sinking. Passengers ships do not just explode. Marine diesel engines run on a combination of diesel and lower grade bunker fuel - fuels which have low flashpoints and need to be preheated and put under pressure to ignite. These also do not just explode. A catastrophic fire in the galley could perhaps cause LPG tanks for cooking to explode, but this is not where the fire originated. Fires also do not just race out of control, and if this was a normal fire that did race out of control, then the incompetence of the management and crew of Aboitiz Superferry would be terrible indeed. I doubt that a limpet mine could have been used to cause the explosion outside the hull. This seems too James Bond-ish and high tech for the Abu Sayaff. Even the Italians were successful against British warships in harbor, not moving at sea. While slow by some standards, Superferry 14 would have been at her cruising speed of at least 18 knots passing Corregidor. That speed, as well as the notorious currents in that area, would make a frogman attack impossible - unless it was Tom Cruise in Mission Impossible. On the other hand, it is possible for a ship to capsize just from the water pumped into her hull by firefighters. News pictures showed at least two large tugs pouring water into the superstructure of the ship. All this water would start pooling in the passenger spaces well above water, above the center of gravity and causing the ship to begin listing. This in fact is what happened to the famous French passenger liner Normandie, which caught fire while in harbor in New York during World War II. There was no hull damage, in fact no explosion, just incompetent firefighting by the Americans who poured water into the structure causing the ship to list and eventually capsize. Superferry 14 is more vulnerable than the Normandie because of its huge RORO cargo deck, a large uncompartmented space just above the water. As the ship gradually listed under the weight of water above, seawater would have begun entering the cargo deck, eventually worsening until it causes the ship to sink. If she had not been towed to Mariveles where she could lie on her side in shallow water, she would be at the bottom of Manila Bay. Rapid entry of seawater into the RORO deck is what caused the Estonia to sink. In my opinion, terrorists caused an explosion that led to the sinking of the ship. GMA has learned a trick from Bush and is not giving the AS the benefit of claiming the victory. In the war against terrorism, states control the media and can show people that they are winning. (In the same way, it is possible that the passenger plane that crashed in Long Island shortly after 911 was a terrorist attack - engines don't just fall off airplanes. But for the US government to admit it was losing the war against terrorists would have been unacceptable for Bush.) Either that or Aboitiz should answer for some really incompetent operations. Regards, Tonton Mapa, [email protected] March 08, 2004 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Dear Mr. Abaya: I very much enjoyed reading your 'National Stupidity Index' article. Max Soliven's interview with FPJ can really be a potent tool in breaking the wild swell in the nation's stupidity index by asking the executives of ABS-CBN to re-play the interview (in a time where the masa are glued on TV) every week till May 10. This could be the only way to ensure FPJ's defeat since it is almost impossible to convince him to appear live every week in Max Soliven's show. The Lopezes must take the sacrifice of airing the interview at the expense of their high-rating telenovela show and in a way serve as a reparation for indirectly having responsibility in the rise of the nation's 'NSI'. Having all this, I am pretty sure we can reverse the 'NSI' to an all-time low. One more thing, I doubt Raul Roco would be under pressure to withdraw from the race in favor of PGMA considering the millions his party has spent for his campaign ads. Moreover, shifting his support to PGMA would be tantamount to perfidy of his own words that PGMA's administration is inept and corrupt. Best regards, ANGEL ALEGRE, [email protected] March 08, 2004 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Dear Mr Abaya, Here is another case of the Philippine National Stupidity Index. Jinggoy Estrada who is the son of Sen. Louie Estrada and the celebrated President Erap is one of those appearing in the surveys as one of those candidates who may be elected to the Senate. Alleluia! We are going to have a mother and son in the Senate. But other than having been a Mayor of San Juan what does Jinggoy have between his ears to qualify as a member of that august body, supposed to be a council of the wise? What ever happened to that provision in the Constitution against political dynasty. Having a mother and son in the Senate is worse than a political dynasty. I leave it to you to gage the level of national stupidity index we have. Jorge Matanguihan, [email protected] March 09, 2004 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Tony, A point to consider? If Villanueva shifts his votes to GMA it's not just 1.8%, but considerably more. The surveys are a random sampling, which by its very nature can't take into account a large block vote. So you have to add 2 million, or whatever his JIL. numbers are to his 1.8%. If there are 40M voters, that's 5%. GMA is becoming the least worst choice. Sad. Peter Wallace, [email protected] MY REPLY. 1.8% of 40 million registered voters is still only 720,000 voters, around half of whom attended that Luneta rally. Claims of 2.8 million attendees are a lot of bull. GMA is indeed becoming the �least worst choice�. Sad, I agree, but right now she is the only one who can beat FPJ. wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww (Through the Talsik egroup) If allegations are true that the NSI is at an all time high, then Gloria is indeed smart to exploit this pinoy character. She thinks JC is stupid so she makes funds disappear from the calamity fund - just one instance of exploiting the stupidity of the pinoy. FPJ may be uneducated but he is not stupid. Equating non-education with stupidity is stupidity in itself. Abraham Lincoln was uneducated and so was Albert Einstein. Neither of these two great men were stupid. The Filipinos are NOT stupid, not even by a long shot. To claim otherwise is self-flagellation. Filipinos are in truth, under duress by the grinding weight of poverty, hence they are susceptible to the measly handout of blue shirts given by Gloria. Even the town mayors accept token handouts in exchange for political favors from their constituencies. Dire are the straits that the pinoy is going thru that he is willing to sell his birthright for a measly blue shirt emblazoned at the back with the name of Gloria, thus making him a walking billboard. Luis �Eaglewings�, [email protected] March 08, 2004 Just how literal do we take the terms "education" and "stupidity" here? - for stupidity does not necessarily mean the lack of education. In fact, we could use education in stupid ways, "stupid" here meaning doing something self-defeating, which is what we all fear, especially with the up and coming elections, such as voting for the candidate who will eventually win and eventually bring us to the depths of doom. Many a great men and women were not educated in traditional ways. The likes of Einstein and Lincoln, as we all know, educated themselves, and we can just imagine the independent will power and personal inspiration at work, without the need for approval from an academic institution. But such can only prove himself by results. That is, if the individual feels it to be necessary, or simply cannot help it. An inspired man is both difficult to fathom and hold back. Sandra Alzona, [email protected] March 08, 2004 MY REPLY to Luis �Eaglewings� and Sandra Alzona: In your responses to my "National Stupidity Index," you both (coincidentally or otherwise) alluded to Abraham Lincoln and Albert Einstein as "uneducated but not stupid." I never equated uneducated with stupid. You did. Lincoln was largely self-educated, but he was not "uneducated". He actually thought of studying law. He worked as postmaster, then as surveyor, and served four terms as congressman in the state legislature. Einstein was not uneducated either. He attended public schools in Munich (Germany) and Aarau (Switzerland). (European public schools have much more rigorous standards than US and Philippine public schools). Then he studied mathematics and physics at the Swiss Polytechnic Institute in Zurich, graduating in 1900. Lincoln was one of the most eloquent speakers and writers ever in the history of the English language. Einstein was not only a mathematician and physicist, he was also a philosopher who wrote profoundly on religion, philosophy, current affairs and the human condition. But FPJ is both uneducated AND stupid (for believing that good intentions are enough to run a country and manage an economy). To put mumble-mumble FPJ on the same moral or intellectual level as Lincoln and Einstein is the height of stupidity. Antonio C. Abaya, [email protected] March 10, 2004 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Tony, Got a tip for you. On Talsik : Click message 1588 then click VIEW SOURCE on top of messages. Then Click message 1599 then click VIEW SOUCE on top of messages. You will see they have same numbers in their IP addresses. Regor Aguilar, [email protected] March 12, 2004 MY REPLY. You are implying that Luis �Eaglewings� and Sandra Alzona (above Talsik reactors) are either one and the same person, or belong to the same email brigade employed by a candidate, in this case, FPJ. Thanks for the tip, but the imputation neither surprises nor bothers me. People have to earn a living. wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Dear Tony - For your interest. Bob is one of about a dozen golfmates, classmates here and abroad, .and other friends I have been sending your emailed articles to. POCH ROBLES, [email protected] March 09, 2004 (Forwarded) > Hi Poch, > > keep sending those Abaya articles please, one of the few voices of > sanity in this crazy environment. > > Bob wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww i think you are more stupid than FPJ mr abaya. Hermogenes Ramos Jr., [email protected] March 10, 2004 MY REPLY. Same to you. Wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Dear Mr. Abaya, Thanks for the updates which you are giving me about our nation. It sets me in tune with the political events happening in the Philippines since I am doing my schooling here in Florence, Italy. It gives me much hope to read and know that the Filipinos are acting intelligently on the issue of the Presidential elections with prudence and caution so as not to exacerbate the political tensions in our nation. I see it very prudent for the Supreme Court to have that decision for FPJ. Even the surveys show that the Filipinos are thinking well for the future of the nation. Just want to assure you that even I am enjoying the cold of Italy, many Filipinos here are very excited with the political events happening in our nation. We are always praying for peace in our land and hopefully after we have finished our schooling here, I and some of us would be back to our land to serve our nation. Just want to assure that the Spirit of Ninoy and Edsa are very alive in us to prove that not only economic and political freedom are the most important in the life of the nation but more so moral freedom which should be the foundation of these two freedoms that many human beings are longing for. I assure we had the right foundations with our Edsa, with the blood of Ninoy and the other Edsa martyrs like Evelio Javier. We are founded on rock, on truth and it will not be shaken no matter what typhoons, coup d' etat, earthquakes, terrorism, and tyrants come. Hope to meet and talk with you and to share with you some beautiful thoughts on politics which I am learning here in Europe when I return back to the Philippines. Sincerely Yours, Jose Aranas, [email protected] March 11, 2004 (Just to tell something about myself. I am writer and a poet. I am doing a course for two years on Spirituality here in Loppiano, Florence Italy under the Focolare movement. I have written a collection of my essays and poems entitled Reflections and Poems of an Exiled heart which our good Bishop Socrates Villegas has given a wonderful introduction. Jose OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO |
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