| Namfrel Chickens Out By Antonio C. Abaya June 10, 2004 Namfrel had given notice earlier that its quick count would extend only until some 80% of the precincts were accounted for, even though, unlike in previous elections that it had done quick counts for, it had a 100% coverage of the precincts this time around. But, in my opinion, there was still no valid reason for Namfrel to terminate its public updates when it finally did on June 5, with 24.777 million votes tabulated from 79.21% of the precincts. On the contrary, the vote count at that particular time needed the usually sober and supposedly disinterested voice of Namfrel to calm down tensions in the light of charges and counter-charges of �massive fraud� and a joint committee of Congress bogged down in endless acrimonious debates over rules. This was the situation after 6pm of June 5: President Arroyo�s share of the votes had dropped from a high of 45.8% (on May 17) to 39.05. Fernando Poe Jr.�s share had risen from a low of 31.8% (on May 16) to 36.97. Mrs. Arroyo�s lead over Poe had shrunk from a high of 13.6% (on May 16) to only 2.08. If one were to plot the vote shares of GMA and FPJ on an xy graph, with the Namfrel�s updates as the y or base coordinate, you do not have to be a rocket scientist to conclude that the descending line of GMA and the ascending line of FPJ would soon intersect. Meaning, FPJ would soon catch up with GMA and even possibly overtake her. Unless there are enough GMA votes from the remaining 21% of the precincts to pull her line up again. But we will never know that because Namfrel has discontinued its public updates. With almost seven million votes more still to be tabulated, Namfrel�s termination of its public updates at this point leaves it open to suspicions that cast doubts on its hard-earned reputation for impartiality. And I am not even putting any weight to the accusations of Sen. Nene Pimentel that Bill Luz is a Canadian citizen and that one of JoeCon�s affiliate companies donated bottled water (with pictures of GMA) to the Arroyo campaign. I am focusing solely on Namfrel�s possible motivations for terminating the updates at such a critical juncture, even though said termination had been announced weeks before. Even the Comelec�s Rex Borra had publicly urged Namfrel to complete its count. The kindest interpretation would be that Namfrel merely wanted not to pre-empt the work of the joint session of Congress acting as the national board of canvassers. But even on June 6, it was obvious to most people that the canvass of COCs would not be finished for another two or three weeks, or even longer. Dirty minds would conclude that Namfrel wanted, more than anything else, that its final tally, which it has promised to release �before June 30�, be in sync with that of Congress. Even if the congressional tally turns out to be polluted with dagdag-bawas? Ay, there�s the rub! We have an evolving Rashomon Syndrome here. Congress, Comelec, Namfrel, the K-4 majority coalition and the KNP minority coalition each has a copy of the certificates of canvass from all 176 centers of COCs and the statements of votes from all the 200,000 plus precincts, the originals of which are supposed to be enclosed in the ballot boxes being opened at the Batasan. But from the copies that it has at hand, the KNP minority coalition claims that FPJ has won over GMA by as much as two million votes; for its part, the K-4 majority coalition, holding the very same documents, claims that GMA has won over FPJ by 700,000 to 1.1 million votes. Who is telling the truth? In such a situation, the voice of an impartial and credible referee is sorely needed. It is unfortunate that Namfrel has chickened out of this important role. I do not hold a single document, but my analysis of the early vote counts released by Namfrel (and posted in Inq7.net), which I converted into percentages and compared to the results of the SWS exit poll, has led me to conclude that GMA won, but by a slim lead, as I wrote in my article of May 13 titled �GMA By a Hair.� Someone from the chattering class has criticized me for coming up with these data and updates which, he said, are all available from media anyway, so what�s the point? What media is he talking about? I read two broadsheets everyday, watched ANC everyday, and monitored the posts on Inq7.net everyday. They all gave nothing but vote counts. I was the only one who converted those counts into percentages, which allowed me to compare the current data not only with the SWS exit poll, but also with the SWS and Pulse Asia pre-election surveys, which were all expressed in percentages. So far, the Namfrel data have held up pretty well against the pre-election surveys and exit poll, which thus made its heretofore public count credible and at the same time validated the pre-election surveys� accuracy. A fact which should not be lost on other members of the chattering class who had accused me of receiving money to project a GMA victory, just because they could not understand how a scientific survey of 1,200 or 1,800 respondents could accurately reflect the choices of 43 million others. And just because their favorite candidate was not at the top in those pre-election surveys. One of them wrote that no survey was credible to him unless it showed a 30% share each for GMA, FPJ and Roco (his candidate). A case of �My mind is made up. Don�t confuse me with the facts.� The fly in the ointment here was the SWS exit poll giving GMA and FPJ 41% and 32%, respectively, which caused premature ejaculation in Malacanang on May 12. SWS itself added to the unwarranted euphoria by saying that if the 8% who gave �no answers� to their exit pollsters were spread out pro-rata among those who did, the count would be 44% for GMA and 35% for FPJ, a projection gleefully echoed by Malacanang chief-of-staff Rigoberto Tiglao. But there was no valid reason to believe that the No Answers were spread out pro-rata as projected. As I wrote in my May 13 article, my analysis showed that the No Answers (in the exit poll) and the Undecideds (in the pre-election surveys) �voted mostly for FPJ, Lacson and Villanueva.� In actual fact, based on the June 5 update from Namfrel, of the 8% who gave no answers to the SWS exit pollsters, 4.97 voted for FPJ, 1.97 for Roco, 1.85 for Lacson, 1.16 for Villanueva, and zero for GMA, who actually suffered a net loss of 1.95%. ***** The bulk of this article appears in the June 19, 2004 issue of the Philippines Free Press magazine. OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO Reactions to �Namfrel Chickens Out� The zero of the undecided for Gloria is unbelievable.The zero for everyone else but Gloria in Sto. Tomas,Pangasinan is a whit more credible because it was"actual" count. Ross Tipon, [email protected] June 11, 2004 MY REPLY. You have to make a distinction between absolute zero and statistical zero. The zero among the undecided for Gloria is a statistical zero, meaning that among the approximately 2.5 million who constituted the 8% Undecided, the votes for Gloria were in the thousands or tens of thousands only, hence were statistically insignificant or statistically zero in relation to the 2.5 million total. wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Tony, I wish you would lighten up on Namfrel and, instead of focusing on what they could have done, or should do, also offer our appreciation for what they have done to help make our elections more credible. Your title "Namfrel Chickens Out" is a bit too insulting to the leaders of NAMFREL and the hundreds of thousands of volunteers who have given of themselves in this year's electoral process. I myself have been a Namfrel volunteer in the past and also part of their organizing effort. I know how difficult their task is, from getting full cooperation from the COMELEC to raising funds, to harnessing volunteers, to the million and one things they have to do to run such a massive volunteer effort in every precint in the country. I think Joe Con and Bill Luz and Gus Lagman and Dick Romulo the rest of the Namfrel team, all 300,000 or so of them, deserve the acknolwedgement and gratitude of the entire Filipino people. I have heard stories of heroism of volunteers in difficult and challenging areas. Never in the history of NAMFREL have they set out to do a 100% count. First, there are always some election returns that are not given to NAMFREL, either because of the ignorance or resistance of some misguided COMELEC representatives or because politicians hijack the returns. Or sometimes yes, there may be a few NAMFREL volunteers who are not up to the job. Second, they usually stop when the COMELEC starts its official count so as not to pre-empt them. I think in this case they just decided to continue because of the antics of our congressmen and women which have unnecessarily delayed the canvassing of votes for President and Vice President. I think we should accept their decision to stop the count even as they continue their own audit and evaluation process. They also stand ready to offer their documents and volunteers if required by any electoral protest that may be filed. They have done what many of us have not had the time, energy, or passion to do. They have earned their rest and our eternal gratitude. Vicky P. Garchitorena, [email protected] June 11, 2004 MY REPLY is embedded in my next article, �Namfrel Defended.� wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww To Vicky Garchitorena; copy furnished to A. C. Abaya I second the motion. The censure is certainly misplaced and the opposite is called for. Victor A. Lim, [email protected] June 11, 2004 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Who are funding these .org's and surveys anyway ? It seems like somebody in one of these forums had it right in not believing the projected outcome. I would have pulled support and funding from these quitters. Just give them time and enough rope and the dimwits are going to show their true colors. Ray Eced, [email protected] June 11, 2004 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Mr. Abaya The lack of impartiality by NAMFREL, coupled with the termination of their counting and incomplete exit polls creates suspicion. It is very irresponsible for anyone to make any conclusion who won. You don't have to be a rocket scientist to conclude but the numbers just don't add up yet, more so on the 13th of May. I believe that We, the people, demand and deserves an honest vote tabulation. I don't think the people will allow the Presidency to be stolen again. If the integrity of the CoCs are in question or there are discrepancies, the source of the discrepancy must be thoroughly examined. Every voter must be afforded to have his or her vote counted. That is why we have an election. If in the end of the vote canvassing GMA came out on top, then her Presidency will be more solid. Wouldn't you agree? R Sonny Sampayan, [email protected] June 11, 2004 MY REPLY. I agree. wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww I heard/read that Namfrel will continue to tabulate �in secret� until 100% and publish their results on June 30. No matter who wins. Can you verify this? Rudy Villarica, [email protected] June 11, 2004 MY REPLY. That�s what it is, a tally in secret for the votes in the remaining 20% of the precincts. wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww DearTony, The reason why NAMFREL's vote count jumped dramatically between May 15 Saturday and early morning Sunday is because NAMFREL in Greenhills entered the total Pampanga province vote in one stroke. You have the byday by day figures and will note that said 13 hour interval had by far the highest increase in votes. Mano Alcuaz, [email protected] June 12, 2004 Try to get hold of a NAMFREL regional breakdown. wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Profoundly disturbing. Dear Tony, Whoever it was who wrote you that your statistical study was just a useless duplication of what's offered by the dailies need to go back to a basic in debate: an assertion does not take the place of reasoned argument backed by evidence. The fact is no one else has done as you have. However distasteful, indeed horrendous, are the implications of your analysis, it does not help if we try to suppress the facts. What those letter-writers hoped was to take the wind out of your sail so the ship of facts and truth where you're the helmsman gets wrecked on the shoals of their make-believe land. Well the secret's out, and the rational thing is to deal with the facts however dreadful. We can assume there are pro-Poe as well as pro-GMA who have studied your analysis. Or have independently arrived at the same findings while not telling the rest of us. If I were with the former, do you think they will just let GMA to steal the elections? If I were with the latter, will we allow the other to steal back what we've filched? Elections after all are a criminal sport, the race goes to the quick-witted, the conscienceless and the criminal with nerves of steel. That's a crude way of putting it but that's how I can simplify in my own mind the situation we're in. I dread the thought Poe--the bumbling, mumbling, know-nothing numskull--(mis)running this god forsaken land. I dread even more the low-life characters--the discards of the Martial Law regime--who surround Poe. Still that doesn't mean I welcome with boundless glee the prospect of six more years of GMA (a.k.a. Mrs. Jose Pidal). Her criminal misuse of government resources--money, men/women, machinery, methods--was exactly the reason the Constitution proscribed a President from running for reelection. There's very little that differentiates the two camps. They're all the same askal with different collars. So I think the likeliest thing is there will be no President-elect by June 30. The best I can hope for is for the Constitution to still operate even then, and for the Senate President to hold the reins of power temporarily. And Drilon should call for a snap election, within six (6) months under a completely new COMELEC, where he himself will not run. He will not like to run anyway since within those six months the country will become so ungovernable (we're almost there), it will take someone so crazy to want to run this country. We are not exactly in short supply of crazy people who will want to possess power, by fair or foul means. (Gringo Honasan, you can be sure, is not to be counted out. There's one lesson he learned in Grade I: If at first you don't succeed, try, try, try. Until you burn the country into cinders.) The sane, the best and the brightest of our race, are there any left in the homeland? dare not run. Vic de Jesus, [email protected] June 13, 2004 MY REPLY. Your analysis and conclusion are equally profoundly disturbing, Vic. It is becoming more and more difficult to be optimistic about our future. wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Tony, You are doing a great job analyzing all these survey and official electoral data. Your "chattering class" will obviously continue to chatter. And you, I hope equally obviously, will continue to render much-needed public service. Pepe Miranda, [email protected] June 13, 2004 OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO |
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