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| ON THE OTHER HAND |
| Military Take-Over? By Antonio C. Abaya Written April 13, 2005 For the Philippines Free Press, April 23 issue Right after the brouhaha caused by the release of an AFP Power Point CD purporting to show that 33 organizations have been infiltrated or are controlled by the Communist movement comes a supposedly secret military briefing paper warning that the NPA are at the doorsteps of Metro Manila. According to this 38-page briefing paper, the NPA already has forces in and around Metro Manila waiting for a general uprising that would lead to an eventual takeover of power by the rebels. (Philippine Daily Inquirer, April 10.) The NPA is said to be supported by �progressive forces� which engage in mass action, propaganda and even �character assassination� of politicians to �lower their credibility.� �Once this epidemia (sic) of discontent and agitation hits the nation, the subjective forces are built up and are ready to strike at their common opponent � the seat of political power�.� Said the briefing officer, Navy Lt. Commander Teodoro Quinzon before some assembled media people: �Encounters are happening in Bulacan, Batangas, Antipolo. (Actually, these have been happening for years, not just now. ACA) We can hear them at the doorsteps of Metro Manila. Just because you don�t see the NPA, (it does not mean ) the enemy is not there. That is a false sense of security. We should be aware of what is happening around us�..� He said the military foresee a communist revolution similar to the Tet Offensive (1968) in Vietnam and the Bolshevik uprising (1917) in Russia. �Nobody knew it, nobody was able to predict it, but it happened and they took over power.� Lt. Cmdr. Quinzon said the NPA controls 128 guerilla fronts nationwide, most of them in Mindanao. These �fighting fronts� are meant to �draw away� the AFP to the south, allowing the rebels to flourish in Central Luzon and Southern Tagalog, the two regions that �sandwich� Metro Manila. Is this a credible assessment of a clear and present danger? In 1968, the Viet Cong and the North Vietnamese Army had almost total control of the South Vietnamese countryside. They surrounded a US Marine artillery firebase at Khe Sanh in the Central Highlands, pounding it every day for several weeks with artillery and mortar attacks. This prompted US President Lyndon B. Johnson, mindful of his place in history as well as his re-election chances in November that year, to extract from the Joint Chiefs of Staff � the US military high command � an extraordinary written commitment that Khe Sanh would not be allowed to fall, as the French Army�s Dien Bien Phu, with which Khe Sanh was being compared, did fall in May 1954. While the Americans were totally pre-occupied with Khe Sanh, the Viet Cong and the NVA launched simultaneous attacks on more than 70 towns and cities across Vietnam during the Tet lunar New Year in February, including a daring sapper attack on the US Embassy building in Saigon and the symbolic capture (even for only three weeks) of the former imperial capital city of Hue. (Two of my three children are named in honor of the Vietnamese.) Was this the scenario that Lt Cmdr. Quinzon had in mind: diversionary NPA attacks in Mindanao to cloak the main NPA thrust into Metro Manila? A Tet Offensive in reverse? Vietnam did not fall to the Communist until 1975, but the 1968 Tet Offensive sapped the will power of the Americans to continue the war and forced President Johnson to abandon plans to run for a second term. In 1917, Lenin and his Bolsheviks were already a presence in the Duma or parliament in the capital Petrograd or St. Petersburg, just as Satur Ocampo and Teddy Casino and ten other party-list congressmen from the Communist movement are already a presence in Congress in 2005. Student protests, peasant revolts, worker strikes, shortages of food and fuel and housing, military mutinies and military defeats, food riots, a weak government and an even weaker leader, a nascent civil war�..all contributed to the collapse of the Russian state in 1917. Is Lt. Cmdr. Quinzon suggesting that the same fate awaits the Philippine state in 2005? In 2005, the NPA (the Sword of the CPP Warrior) is not in a position to militarily assault and capture Metro Manila. But the many fronts of the NDF (the Shield of the CPP Warrior), the �hundreds,� later �thousands,� of front organizations that Juliet Sison bragged about in that 1987 interview with P. Dekkers (see my article �Enemies of the State,� April 12), are capable of enormous mischief, including choreographed civil anarchy in Metro Manila, synchronized with a military offensive in Mindanao to draw troops and police away from the National Capital Region. In that scenario, a tactical alliance between the NPA and the Abu Sayyaf and the MILF would likely stretch the resources of the AFP-PNP to breaking point. If swung with sufficient force, a Shield can be as lethal and as devastating as a Sword. Can they muster that �sufficient force�? The Communists not only have 12 party-list members in Congress, they also have influential individual sympathizers in media, academe and the clergy. More importantly, they have successfully established militant front organizations among students, women, landless peasants, factory and service workers, municipal fishermen, jeepney drivers, public schoolteachers, returning OFWs, medical workers, urban squatters, government employees, campus editors and journalists, priests and nuns, all �battle-tested� in countless street protests and demonstrations. This Communist infiltration of practically all key sectors of society would never have been allowed to happen in Malaysia or Singapore or Indonesia or Thailand or Taiwan or South Korea�.countries which 40 years ago were all inferior to us in economic development but which have since overtaken us and left us behind. Onli in da Pilipins. This is a uniquely Filipino phenomenon, the result of certain historical legacies and cultural idiosyncrasies not found in those other countries, exacerbated by poor and mediocre national leadership, and has to be examined in a separate article. For the Communists, the only elements missing are NDF fronts among the military and the police, but I am sure they are working on that. If and when they succeed, the analogy with the Russia of 1917 would be complete, and Quinzon�s scenario would become self-fulfilling, as it was politicized sailors and soldiers who sealed the fate of the czarist state. Is this an alarmist scenario calculated to panic the middle class into accepting an imminent military takeover? Maybe so, maybe not so. I really do not know. If so, who in the military? And to what end? I do not have the answers either. If the would-be putschists are out to grab power for themselves; to save Generals Garcia and Ligot and other corrupt military officers and DND officials and their wives from possible long prison terms; to rescue the failing Arroyo Government from collapsing from the weight of its own unfulfilled promises, poor track record in governance and monumental corruption; to preserve the status quo so that the scoundrels in the power circles can continue their lucrative rackets, then the middle class should reject this cosmetic make-over of a putrefying cadaver. If the would-be putschists are out to pave the way for the return to power and privilege of the unrepentant trapos of the Marcos and Estrada kleptocracies; to erase forever the world-class record of their greed; to remove the ins in order to allow the outs (and former ins) to return to the feeding trough from which they have not had their gluttonous fill, then the middle class should also reject such a cynical recycling of political garbage. But if, admittedly a long shot, the would-be putschists would be staging it to enable this nation to have a new beginning; so that a new and more just social-economic-political order can be established on the ruins of the old; so that the stranglehold of the political dynasties on our politics can be broken; so that we have a chance to overhaul the systemic corruption and institutionalized electoral fraud that are being passed off as liberal democracy; so that our self esteem as a nation can be restored and our creative energies can be harnessed into nation-building rather than into nation-wrecking,�.. then there is hope, and the middle class should welcome this hope because this may be our last chance to embrace it. Given the inability or refusal of our trapo-dominated political system to cleanse and regenerate itself as it spirals deeper into its own excrement, the only other alternative would seem to be a Communist takeover. ***** THE NEXT POPE. I write this on April 17, the day before the conclave begins. The next Pope, in my opinion, will likely be from Latin America, home to about half of the world�s 1.1 billion Roman Catholics, but where the Church is losing the most members. Not to secularism, as in Europe, but to Pentecostals or Born-Again Protestant sects. The Church has to arrest this internal hemorrhaging, and the most logical way to do so would likely be to have a Latin American Pope. Of the three or four Latin American cardinals considered papabile, the most likely winner, in my opinion, is Jorge Maria Cardinal Bergoglio, the archbishop of Buenos Aires, who is the son of Italian immigrants and speaks fluent Italian, among other languages. He therefore has better than even chances of winning most of Latin America�s 21 votes, most or all of Italy�s 20 votes and, because he is an ethnic European, most of Europe�s 38 other votes. Add to this some votes from North America, Asia and Australia, if he becomes a leading contender. It takes 76 or 77 votes to become the next Pope. No other papabile has this much going for him. His biggest handicap is his being a Jesuit. But since he is as conservative as all the others, the Opus Dei, the real power behind the papal throne, may tolerate him. ***** Reactions to [email protected] or fax 824-7642. Other articles in www.tapatt.org OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO Reactions to �Military Take-Over� . If you ask me, there are two intents here. The intent of those who wrote the paper who have an axe to grind against the civil government, and those who will benefit from any dissent within the AFP. The more important of the two intents is the latter. From my perspective, it will be a civil political faction that will reap the benefits of perceived dissent within the military against the current administration. The AFP as it is is in no position to launch a coup...and the only way it has been successful in intervening in Philippine society is for individuals and personalities within to align themself with civil society organizations. The CPP-NPA? The ISAFP paper makes little mention of the discord within the movement or gives a credible assessment as to how the discord crippled Joma. Is there any movement towards unity? Are the reaffirmists saying all is forgiven to the reformists and vice versa? Thus, the CPP can make a lot of noise, but it won't be in any position to decisively affect the conduct of government's affairs. What is happening now is that the little noise of the CPP is being magnified to suit the interests of whosoever wants to influence the current administration. Somebody's using the AFP again...just like what happened in the case of the Magdalos. Once again, simpleminded officers in the AFP are allowing themselves to be used again. Oh what a lovely country! Jose Custodio, [email protected] April 18, 2005 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Dear Mr. Abaya, Maraming salamat po for including me in your mailing list. Also, thank you endorsing my letter to the editor of the Manila Standard Today which saw print on April 5. Sana, patuloy pa ninyong bigyan ng makabuluhang pagkokomentaryo ang mga kaganapan sa ating bansa. I hope it will be alright with you if I forward your articles to my internet friends especially those who are abroad and have no time to read the Philippine news and commentaries online. Joe Seguerra, [email protected] April 18, 2005 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Dear Mr. Abaya: Very nice review of revolutions from other countries. But the theory that the Communists might be in the doorsteps of Metro Manila is impossible. And let's say, the Communists are already there, the "Masa" � no matter how they crawl from the hardships of poverty will never embrace a Communist ideology. If this is so, how much more the middle class Filipinos, who enjoy the products and ideas of the Western Culture? If we are to observe around our country, there is an unseen revolution (or shall we call it evolution) from among the new generations of today, even among the middle-aged, and the elderlies. You could see them from how they wear their clothes, sing the lyrics from Western sounds, and how they entertain themselves with those electonic gadgets, DVDs and satellite TV's. Today's Filipinos, including the old ones will never tolerate a Communist-style of living. For me: Democracy, Communism, Christianity, Buddhism, Microsoft Windows, Red Hat Linux, Philippine Star, Philippine Inquirer.... nothing is different from them. They're all invented (based on the needs of the people) by those who want to have money and powers. It's up for for the citizens or users to choose the right product or idea that fits their lifestyles. Jess Guim, [email protected] New York, April 18, 2005 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww With all those retired military personnel in the cabinet and the government, isn't the military takeover complete yet? The Garcia case will be a good test case since the result of this will be very toxic. Complicity to the highest levels is a must for somebody like Garcia to exist and live the way he does. Only a moron could surmise otherwise. Kaya malamang, this case will not prosper because of the possible collateral damage. Jojo Vicencio, [email protected] April 18, 2005 http://www4.pbase.com/rvicencio wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww My Dear Abaya, Militaries are renown (especially in the USA) for finding hidden conspiracies, with papers and proof that the enemy is in our midst. This is good military propoganda and is good for extra funding. Unfortunately the Military then has to pray for a terrorist event. They have also been known to get a little pro-active if things are slow. The NPA is probably at the Gates of Manila, and more likely in most poor households in Manila. No government can sleep easy when the peoples standard of living is declining, and it is even more dangerous is when the rich are having their wealth dissipated. Why not blame the NPA, the real players can never be named. The time is not yet right for the NPA to emerge in strength, but they and all their Metaphorical brothers are all out there watching and waiting. The revolutionary Problems are much deeper than the NPA. It is dificult to find parallels in the Russian Revolution. The Bolsheviks and the Menschevics competed for power for over 20 years before the revolution. They had serious leaders and serious platforms. The bolshevic revolution of 1917, had its origins in the 1890's. It had a few false starts. Finally, purely because the nation was at arms, and the Tzar had pushed the rich and the poor too far Trotsky's pen was able, for the first time, to redirect the suffering soldier/peasants, many intermediate ranks, and even some higher ranks, towards the real enemy. However the revolutionary parallels are well taken. Yes the natives are restless, but the natives need some cataclysmic event to direct them towards the real enemy. But what event, and led by whom?? The Manila Mutiny failed because very limited "top power" had managed to convince some young idealists that " most of the top power" was ready to jump, when in fact it were not. The AFP assesment of the the 128 NPA fronts drawing the AFP away from Manila is indirectly feasible, It is highly feasible that Mindanao and the south islands will separate, and the AFP will be drawn south, but not at this time. The separation will be the consequence of some other events. The Vietnam parallels don't really fit. US politics was very convoluted and there were two formidable armies facing each other. One well funded and one not. Any change of power in Manila will have to be purely a Philippine invention, possibly run along the lines of Che Gueverra, Castro, or any of the other more modern South American and Latin American power changes. It will have to be congruent with Catholicism. The military is not a big political power anymore. Gloria has wisely tried to diversify power. Unfortunately the Dynasty is so interbred that diversification is difficult. The talk of Swords and Shields, Massing students, crowds etc. and all the other "precursors" usually shown on TV, is very premature. Serious leaders, credible rhetoric, working platforms, possible solutions and the necessary Martyrs have not yet appeared. The last serious change (but still not a Dynastic change) of leader had Ninoy Aquino as a surrogate leader, a martyr and a cataclysmic event all in one. The present Philippine Dynasty will not change soon no matter what happens. The present Dynasty is totally entrenched at all levels. A mere Change of President will not change anything. The Dynasty will merely install another more predictable leader to return things to the Philippine norm. Gloria is only in power because George Bush wants there. He put her there and she will be there as long as he wants her. The Dynasty is in slow motion at present, waiting. After George the Dynasty will move her out and try to get the Philippines back to business as it was. Her present danger is if she keeps trying to make US inspired reforms. If the promised US money "IN" does not compensate the rich sufficiently, at a certain point, when the rich have too much of their wealth redirected, appropriated or taxed, they will topple the leadership. The Philippine Middle-class is not a political power. Most are sucking on the government teat in one way or another. They are not going to cut off the teat that feeds them. The Historical middle class grew out of a merchant class, with absolutely no political or ruling power. They owned all a country's money They were the ones financing wars and lending money to the Popes and Kings. A King or a Pope dared not upset them or they would cut off his money supply. The military is trying to create a relevance for itself. They would love to have their former power. They will find communists and NPA hiding under every bed. Garcia will have enormous repercussions, and possibly unite them again. Graham Reinders, [email protected] April 18, 2005 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww To Tony Abaya : Bravo. Your analysis in Free Press analyzing the prospect of a military take over --- and the metastasis of fronts -- was right on the button. And if you and I were voters at the conclave, Cardinal Bergoglio would have two more votes. Regards Johnny Mercado, [email protected] Philippine Daily Inquirer April 18, 2005 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww I used to be scared of the so-called communist and military threat THAT YOU WRITE ABOUT.. BUT not anymore..travelling thru all these countries and knowing the Filipino well, I think, makes me believe that a military or communist rule would not survive for long in the Philippines. FILIPINOS ARE TOO REACTIONARY THESE DAYS..besides, good ol' bushie would never allow it. and you know who would help us IF such an event took place? The Fil-Americans who serve as butlers and aides of the presidents in the White House. I interviewed many of them, and better than our own Philippine presidents or officials some times, THEY HAVE THE EAR OF THE PRESIDENTS AND SENATORS IN WASHINGTON DC WHERE THEY SERVE...TRUE... Cita Abad Dinglasan, [email protected] April 18, 2005 wewwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww I think this is worthwhile sharing. You forgot to cite the happenings in Samar. For instance, in the last two weeks, two brothers were abducted in Catbalogan, in the home of their parents. One brother was found headless and in handcuffs in Barangay Canticum, Calbiga, Samar. The younger brother is still missing. The parents are shaking with fear. They could not even travel from Catbalogan to Canticum in Calbiga to bury their son. The barangay people buried the headless son. And there are threats on the Samarnons. An ISP owner was threatened. His young children were even mentioned. The lady mayor of Calbiga, Samar has been threatened. I don't know if Joma and the NDF are convinced that anytime soon, there will be a massive uprising from Aparri to Sitangkai. And I am not forgetting that America is itching to unload its weapons that can shock and awe. My greatest fear is that we are descending into barbarism. It does not matter na parepreho iyong ating mga ilong, pango. Remember the Maneros and what they did to Fr. Favali? Did the Ilagas really ate his brains? Cesar Torres, [email protected] April 19, 2005 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Plunder in the Philippine Military We applaud you, our "Fearless Generals" for your bold efforts in getting rid of the "lintas" in the Philippines. Even though you mentioned prayers are not enough (which is true), we still offer our prayers for your guidance and protection with your noble crusade. Filipinos are still lucky to have you in our midst - our Fearless Generals. We salute you! We are proud of you! Lerticia M. Angeles Milpitas, California, April 19, 2005 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Mabuhay kayo! Tama ang ginagawa n�yo at makatutulong ng malaki sa bayan natin. Pero kailan ba madidimanda ng plunder ang mag-asawang nasa Malaca�ang? Romy Enriquez, [email protected] April 21, 2005 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Please proceed with the plunder case. So shameful to be a Pinoy. Generoso Octavio, [email protected] April 16, 2005 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Sir I have been living in Europe since 1962 but haven't given up my intent on returning home for good on retirement. It saddens me most tremendously that our benighted country hasn't done away with graft and corruption from the highest to the lowest echelon of officialdom in all these years. With you and your group, there still is some hope that these criminal practices will at least be instrumental in furthering our countrymen's awareness of this sorry situation alive. This certainly is something positive to start with. I'll try helping in making your earnest endeavour be heralded across borders. Thank you and more power to you Virgil C. Bernarte, [email protected] Switzerland, April 21, 2005 OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO |