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| ON THE OTHER HAND |
| Mga Linta sa Paligid ni FPJ By Antonio C. Abaya December 11, 2003 Tapus na ang boksing. Si FPJ ang susunod na pangulo ng Pilipinas. Ayun sa pinakahuling public opinion survey ng Pulse Asia na binanggit ni Mike Romero sa ANC Ch. 21 kahapon (Dec 10), 45% ng mga respondents ay pinili si FPJ nang sila ay tanungin kung sino ang kanilang iboboto kung ang halalan ay gagawin ngayon. Si Raul Roco ay pinili ng 20% lamang, si Presidente Arroyo 14%, si Ping Lacson 9%. If this true, then it is all over but the shouting. The lead is insurmountable. Even if the undecided (12%) were to go all out for the second-placer Roco (highly improbable) Roco would still get only 32%. Even if Noli de Castro were to belatedly decide to run for the presidency, he, as late-comer, will not take away half of FPJ�s votes. There is now an FPJ bandwagon and it is on a roll. Noli de Castro would get run over by it if he were to stand in its way. The most de Castro can realistically aspire for is to be FPJ�s vice-president. Even if President Arroyo were to withdraw on December 30, as she might be forced to, her 14% share of the votes, which is shrinking by the week, will not all go to Roco. And even if they were to do so, Roco would get only 34%. (A check with Pepe Miranda of Pulse Asia drew the following reply, which did not reach me in time for the Free Press editorial deadline: �Tony, These are not Pulse Asia figures. People who say they come from some survey done by Pulse Asia would do well to check with their informants or sources again. Pepe.� (In view of the Pulse Asia denial, the above and other conclusions based on these stats must be considered premature, for which I apologize to the Free Press editors and readers, as well as to the presidential contenders referred to. As a general rule, I have confidence only in the surveys of Pulse Asia and Social Weather Stations. But the rest of this article and its defining title stands.) Isang warning lang po, FPJ. Kayo ay pinapaligiran ng mga linta. At sa darating na mga araw, linggo at buwan, dadami pa ang mga linta na ito. Karamihan o lahat sa kanila ay walang tunay na pagmamahal sa inyo. Sila�y pumaligid, pumapaligid at papaligid sa inyo dahil lamang sabik na sabik silang sumakay sa inyo at magpataba sa pagsisipsip ng inyong dugo. Madaling makilala itong mga lintik na linta. Sila ay yung mga trapo na dumikit kay Ferdinand Marcos sa panahon niya. Sila din ang mga trapo na nakadikit sa kumpare niyong si Erap sa panahon niya. Sila ang isang dahilan kung bakit nagkawatakwatak ang pamahalan ni Marcos, gayon din ang pamahalan ni Erap. Huwag niyo sanang papayagan na mangyari ito sa inyong pamahalan. FPJ should realize that he owes nothing to these trapos. Wala kayong utang na loob sa mga lintik na linta. Kayo ay pinili ng masa dahil mahal nila kayo, hindi dahil tinulak sila ng mga trapo na piliin kayo. Kahit na biglang mawala (sana!) sa daigdig ang mga lintik na lintang ito, pipiliin pa rin kayo ng masa dahil sa sariling nyong pagkatao. Inuulit ko: wala kayong utang na loob sa mga trapo. Sila ang may utang na loob sa inyo, na binuksan ninyo ang pintuan ng inyong tahanan at kalooban sa kanilang pagsisipsip. Ngunit hanggang doon na lang sana. Huwag nyong papayagang agawin sa inyo ng mga trapo ang puso at kaluluwa ng inyong pamahalan.***** But is FPJ really going to run for the presidency? The Angaras, the Sottos, the Enriles, the Tatads, the Macedas, the Moraleses and other political parasites hovering around him seem to be certain that Poe is going to run, and they are now counting their chicks even before Da King has sat long enough in their midst to hatch them. During his proclamation by his masa supporters, minus the political hangers-on, last month at the Pasay City Astrodome, which he attended for all of 15 minutes, Poe was effusive in his thanks to the assembled masa for their show of support, but did not say he would accept their proclamation. He merely said he would give his reply �soon.� In the two-day Philippine Business Conference in late November, where he and three other presidential contenders were supposed to articulate their programs of government before the assembled business people, Da King failed to show up at the last minute and sent instead his court jester Tito Sotto to read some innocuous lines for him. And when the political parasites of the Koalisyon ng Nagkaisang Pilipino met last week to proclaim Poe as the official candidate of the opposition, Poe failed to show up again and sent instead a tape recorded message thanking them for their support and promising to give his reply �either on December 15 or 16.� Is this any way to run a political campaign? And is this any way to run a government? Does Poe hope to hold cabinet meetings by sending tape recorded messages to his assembled lieutenants? And does Da King hope to represent this country in APEC and ASEAN summits of heads-of-state by having his court jesters speak in his place? By this time some of the political parasites (the �linta� in this title) hovering around him hoping to get, through him, their chance to feed at the trough, must be wondering privately what they have gotten into, although publicly they will continue to manifest supreme confidence in the fitness of Da King for the presidency. But this pattern of indecisiveness and no-show, so early and within a period of less than four weeks, suggests not just a temporary case of stage fright, as the Inquirer headlined last week, but a permanent condition of massive inferiority complex, as I wrote instead in �Todas Ka, Pilipinas,� a complex that can be masked with a fabled invincibility on-screen and a macho swagger off-screen, but which cannot be hidden from public scrutiny in the nitty gritty of daily governance of 82 million constituents. The central problem for this country right now is: can the squealing, star-struck millions be convinced that Da Emperor has no clothes? ***** The bulk of this article appears in the December 20, 2003 issue of the Philippines Free Press magazine. |
| OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO Reactions to �Mga Linta sa Paligid ni FPJ� (Forwarded, from a message sent to 30 others) Fellow sufferers, fellow Fiipinos, Here is a good article from Tony Abaya. Please save his email address as part of your contact data. He is worth it, he is a great, relevant columnist and political analyst all the years that I have known him personally and have been reading his articles. Merry Christmas and rest easy as we have much difficult times ahead that will test our real character and commitment to national interest. Sen. Ramon Magsaysay Jr., [email protected] December 12, 2003 MY REPLY. Thank you for the plug, Jun. ��������������. Your article was very good and I believe it reflected accurately the political situation in the country. Although I have been a long time California resident, I have been following closely what has been taking place in the Philippines since the advent of the internet. Keep up the good work!!!! Reynaldo Sarmiento, [email protected] December 13, 2003 .................................................... Tony, I cannot agree more on MOST of the issues and observations you brought up in this article. "Them are my exact sentiments, too." However, I have to take a definite exception to an IMPLIED TRUISM, (myth or mindset, or simply a rather gratuitous assumption) which, even among a number of my respected and admired journalists and political scientists, seem to be popularly shared. You asked in your article referenced here: "The central problem for this country right now is: can the squealing, star-struck millions be convinced that Da Emperor has no clothes?" At the very outset, I question and challenge the (implied) assumption that there are, in fact, "squealing, star-struck millions" - fans of the 'da king' who will automatically go to the polls to vote him into the presidency. I have seen no quantitative basis for this "assertion". So, at this point I have (at least, tentatively) concluded that this is a mere assumption. (largely influenced by a "popular" pre-conception, based on a prejudice and somewhat lazy mindset). Let me explain that a bit further. It is based on the "prejudgment" or prejudice that the "economically deprived" or the poor - "know, no better". This flawed pre-conception by the condescending "privileged ones" has perpetuated and taken a life of itself because of the "native indolence of the Pilipino mind". (Mahirap Magisip, nakaka-Hi-Blood, is their excuse for their "katamaran".) the underlying reason goes deeper and addresses the question: "Why think deeply and risk changing the status quo...with your new found knowledge, ano ka sinuswerte?" INITIAL QUESTION Why do you perceive/portray the situation in such a way so as to suggest that the popularity of a movie idol, like that of Fernando Poe Jr (or that of Joseph Estrada) automatically translates into the same (maybe more?) popularity (and victory) in the election booths? You must have some FACTUAL BASES. I want to bring those FACTUAL BASES out into the open, for a closer focus and clearer understanding. How did this mindset develop? Based on what results and experiences? A BIT OF HISTORY Since 1946, the Philippines has had a total of 11 presidential elections (one of them, acknowledged by an overwhelming majority of sane citizens to be a complete SHAM...election 1981 - when Alejo Santos (who he???) ran against Makoy in a sham election, offered as proof for the lifting of martial law. Right. I don't believe we will quibble about that simple, but screwed up fact. Therefore, I believe we can all agree that since the Philippines was granted its political independence in July 4, 1946, it has had a total of 10 real democratic presidential elections. I have done quite a bit of historical digging and I have yet to come out with a COMELEC-based factual report showing that "movie popularity translated into electoral victory." ----------- April 23, 1946 - The first election for the Third Republic. Manuel Roxas - 1,333,392 = won by 41% of votes - NOT AN ACTOR. ----------- Nov.8,1949 Elpidio Quirino 1,803,808 = won by 51% of votes! - NOT AN ACTOR ------------- Nov 12,1953 Ramon Magsaysay 2,912,992 = won by 70% of votes! - NOT AN ACTOR. ------------- Nov.12,1957 Carlos P. Garcia 2,072,257 = won by 40% of votes! - NOT AN ACTOR. -------------- Nov.14, 1961 Diosdado Macapagal 3,554,840 won by 55% of the votes! - NOT AN ACTOR. --------------- Nov. 9, 1965 Ferdinand E. Marcos 3,861,324 won by 53% of votes! - NOT AN ACTOR ----------------- Nov.11, 1969 Ferdinand E. Marcos 5,017,343 won by 62% of votes! - NOT AN ACTOR ---------------- 1981 SHAM ELECTION Ferdinand E. Marcos 18,309,360 won by 91% of votes! ARTISTA! ------------------ Feb. 6,1986 Ferdinand E. Marcos 9,795,337 - got 54% of votes but lost election! SOBRA ARTE. ----------------- May 11, 1992 Fidel V. Ramos 5,342,521 (won by 24% of the votes) - NOT AN ACTOR ---------------- May 11, 1998 Joseph E. Estrada 10,956,610 won by 39% of votes - at last an ACTOR. CAVEAT CLUES: 1. Estrada's 1998 presidential election is not a convincing proof. He was certified as receiving 10.9 million votes, almost 40% of the total votes cast. Therefore, the overwhelming majority which is 60% DID NOT VOTE FOR ESTRADA. 2. Of the 40% that did, how many came from those movie going "masang poor" who idolized Erap enough to vote for him, or in your case, be "screaming, squealing star-struck millions"? HINTS: The overall average voter turn-out was 80% overall (i.e., ratio of total voters who cast their ballots versus total registered to vote). This suggests, (in the absence of other statistical means of re-validation ) that 80% of the "registered poor" must have voted, also, "in fairness" lang naman. However, lest we forget, the Sectoral-Party-List elections voter turnout was much lower at 26% to 30% of the registered voters. This suggests strongly that there are less "poor registered voters" who actually went to the polls on election day, to cast their ballots. Not a definite assertion. But a credible and reasonable one. If we apply this same percentage of voter turnout (30%) to the 10.9 million voters or votes casts for Estrada, we may conclude that about 3.3 million votes were cast for Estrada, by the "masang poor". this leaves 7.6 million votes cast for Estrada, that must have come from the NON-MASANG POOR. This would, then, dispel the, heretofore, unquestioned and unchallenged mindset that it was the MASANG POOR that elected or put Estrada into office. (And therefore, should be blamed for everything!) CHALLENGE QUESTIONS: 1. In what presidential election did we see "screaming and squealing star-struck millions" go to the polls and cast their ballots for their movie idol? 2. How many million votes did these all add up to? 3. Where these votes enough to elect the movie idol into the presidency? 4. What, where and who is your authoritative source for all of these? COROLLARY FACT-FINDING QUESTIONS: 1. If the foregoing analysis as to the actual percent of the "masang poor" who voted Erap into the presidency is unacceptable, then how many of the 10.9 million votes which were certified officially for Estrada by COMELEC, during the 1998 presidential elections, can be attributed to the so-called "masang poor"? (where "masang poor" is identified as Class D &/or Class E, using the conventional economic class definition by NEDA). 2. How many votes do you anticipate will be needed to win the presidential election in 2004? 3. How many registered voters are there, officially, for election 2004? According to COMELEC? According to NAMFREL? 4. Based on the official results of the 1998 elections, by COMELEC, voter turnout was about 80% or some 27 millions of 34 millions registered voters cast their ballots. How many of registered voters in #3 above do you project will cast their votes during election 2004? 5. How is the expected voter turnout classified by economic classes? 6. After you have provided us with some FACTS (historical and projected), can you share with us your projection as to how these economic classes will vote? 7. After you have gone through this "exercise", we would appreciate learning if your findings will corroborate the "myth" or "truism" that "squealing-star-struck millions of fans will vote their movie idol into the presidency." 8. Last CURIOUS QUESTION - Do you anticipate that there would be more males (Princes) than females (Princess') who would vote for "da (macho-dobol-fisted) king"? ---------------- CLUE: The Sectoral Party-List Elections of 1998 had an average turnout of only 26 - 30%. Sectoral Party List, we all know are made up of those "minority" sectors - a.k.a. MAHIHIRAP AT MALILIIT NA TAO, WHO BECAUSE OF THEIR ECONOMIC STATUS ARE, SOMEHOW, DEPRIVED OF THE SAME OR SIMILAR POLITICAL OPPORTUNITIES AS THE MORE FORTUNATE POLITICAL PARTIES AND THE INTERESTS THEY REPRESENT. One would expect that if the "poorer sector" of the economy are as "politically motivated" as the overall voter turnout suggests (80%), that there would be at least equal, if not higher voter turnout for the PARTY LIST SECTORAL ELECTIONS. But actual and official COMELEC records do not reflect this. Can you suggest why? Curious minds. We want to know, especially from people who ought to know better since they are in an enviable vantage position of having access to vital, critical and factual information. Let's hear it. Pepeton Janton, [email protected] December 13, 2003 MY REPLY. I have no answer re the party list sectoral elections. I can only conclude that the communists, who are using it as a back door to get into Congress, do not have as much hold, thank Allah! on the masses as they like to think they do. Re the No Actor mantra that you are chanting re all previous elections, there is an illogic in your argument. You are showing No Actor in each election to prove that the masa do not necessarily vote for showbiz fornicators, when the correct and logical mantra should have been No Actor Competed, until 1998. And if Estrada got �only� 39% of the votes then, it is because there were, if I recall right, seven well-known candidates competing then, compared to only two major candidates competing in all previous elections.. It is not logical to conclude that, since the sectoral elections drew only a 30% turnout, only 30% of the masa voted for Estrada. I doubt if many of the masa, or the middle class for that matter, understood what the sectoral elections were all about. I did not cast my vote for any sectoral reps, but I certainly did not vote for Estrada either. I would hazard the guess that the 10.9 million voters who chose Estrada came mostly from the DE classes, but obviously there were others who voted for other candidates. No candidate has a 100% stranglehold on any one class. The survey which I cited in the above article, which I had cause to think was spurious, was also cited by Cong. Teddyboy Locsin in his recent Today column, after mine, in which he claimed that those results were accurate and that he got them from no less than a Malacanang consultant. Let me repeat those numbers: FPJ 45%, Roco 15% (I had written 20%), President Arroyo (your choice, I surmise) 14%, Lacson 9%. Again, as with Estrada�s 39%, FPJ�s 45% are, I would say, mostly from the DE classes. Obviously he has not won all the masa to his side, as most of the Bicolano masa would go for Roco, most of the Kapampangan masa would go for GMA, and most of the Caviteno masa would go for Lacson. But my assertion, that there are �squealing, star-struck millions� out there and that they will go for FPJ, for no other reason than that he is their movie idol, is substantially correct. ...................................................................... |
| Mr. Abaya, Sir, thank you for the article. I appreciate it such insights in the light of the efforts of those who are helping LAKAS address this. Gene Gregorio, [email protected] December 16, 2003 OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO |