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| ON THE OTHER HAND |
| May 10 Surprises By Antonio C. Abaya May 08, 2004 If you don�t believe in scientific surveys (because your favorite candidate/s is/are not doing well in them), or are just plain ignorant about how those surveys are configured and do not want to be educated about them, then don�t bother reading any further. But I believe in scientific surveys, and I personally know Mahar Mangahas of the Social Weather Stations (SWS) and Pepe Miranda of Pulse Asia, and I have complete trust in their impartiality and professionalism to give the public a reasonably accurate snap shot of voter preferences as those preferences have evolved over a period of time, with no ideological or other biases to color their findings. Scientific surveys may use small universes (1,200 or 1,800 respondents), but those universes are deliberately chosen to reflect the demographics of a country: certain percentages are male and female; certain percentages are rural- and urban-based; certain percentages come from different regions; and certain percentages represent different socio-economic classes (A, B, C, D and E). And this is not unique to Pulse Asia and SWS. It is a standard methodology used by other reputable polling groups around the world. A scientific survey that follows these parameters - as I am confident SWS and Pulse Asia do � will come up with a reasonably accurate snap shot of the preferences of 43 million voters at a particular time, even if the total universe is only 1,200 or 1,800. And if those �snap-shots� are taken or tracked often enough, then they will reveal action or movement or trends, as in the old nickelodeon machines (before movies were invented). If you cannot accept this premise, just because your favorite candidate is not at the top, then, again, read no further, as there is nothing I can do to liberate you from your ignorance. On the other hand, online, text and radio straw votes do not give an accurate picture, as they are wide open exercises that do not stop anyone from voting dozens of times for their favorite candidate. Straw votes in offices or organizations also do not give a total picture since 1,500 Manila policemen, or 350 oligarchs at the Makati Business Club, or 450 staff members in NEDA do not reflect the demographics of 43 million Filipinos. Again, if you cannot accept that your favorite candidate is trailing in the scientific surveys, just because he/she is topping certain straw votes, then you are hopelessly dumb and should consider resigning from the human race. In the latest SWS survey, conducted nationwide with 2,000 respondents from May 1 to 4, GMA got 37, FPJ 30, Lacson 11, Roco 6 and Villanueva 4, with the undecided at 12. In the latest Pulse Asia survey, conducted nationwide April 26 to 29, the ratings were GMA 37, FPJ 31, Lacson 11, Roco 7 and Villanueva 5, with the undecided at 9. An examination of the numbers from both Pulse Asia and SWS from January to May shows that Lacson�s hardcore and unwavering supporters make up about 11% of voters, and FPJ�s about 31%. GMA�s do not number much more than FPJ�s, about 32%. Her rise in ratings in April-May comes from middle-class defections from Raul Roco � whose numbers dropped from 15 to 6 during that period � caused by his virtual withdrawal due to health reasons and the perception of many of them that they have to support GMA, not because she is their first choice, but to prevent the ignoramus FPJ from winning. Easily the most phenomenal development has been the rise of Eddie Villanueva as a serious presidential contender, his share of the votes rising from one to five percent in only four months. To be sure, like GMA, he benefited from the collapse of the Roco campaign. But that alone cannot explain the sense of commitment and the almost religious zeal that his true believers have shown, especially during their May 6 rally. Clearly, Villanueva has struck a responsive chord and filled an aching void among many of the mostly middle and upper class true believers who support him. They are praying for a miracle, that there will be a last-minute surge that will carry him to victory on May 10. If that happens, that will be the Surprise of the Year �nay, the Surprise of the Entire Political History of this country. But will it happen? It will take some doing. Even in the unlikely event that all the undecided voters (9 to 12%) swung to his camp, it would not be enough for him to overhaul the lead of GMA and FPJ. To win on May 10, Villanueva�s miracle has to include drawing voters away from the other candidates. But from whom? Lacson�s and FPJ�s numbers are down to their hardcore supporters, who at any rate, would not feel at ease with Villanueva�s moralistic, holier-than-thou posture. There may still be some pickings left at the disintegrated Roco camp, but not much, since the Bicolanos will never abandon their favorite son. To win on May 10, Villanueva has to win over not only all the undecided and any stragglers left with Roco, but also substantial numbers from the GMA camp. His May 6 miting-de-avance, unequaled by any of the other contenders, no doubt had some psycho-moral effect on some of the middle-class types who defected from Roco to GMA, which is not reflected in the latest SWS poll (May 1-4), who may now decide to defect, again, from GMA to Villanueva, the last-minute surge that his followers have been praying for. How many votes can Villanueva draw away from GMA? Not in the millions, in my opinion, but we will find out for sure only on May 10. He certainly cannot draw enough to win. But he may draw enough to foul things up, such as narrowing GMA�s lead over FPJ to the extent that FPJ�s followers can scream �Massive cheating!� and proceed with their threatened street protests and rumored coup d�etat. Or wiping out her lead altogether so that FPJ wins, fair and square. Surprise!!!!.***** OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO Reactions to �May 10 Surprises� Mr. Abaya I have one simple question. Can our nation and our people afford six more years of misery? Signed by a disenfranchised voter.�, [email protected] May 09, 2004. "Our countries future will not be shaped by people who don't believe in their future. The future of our country will be built by people who see the complexities that lie ahead but are not deterred; people who are conscious of the flaws in human kind but not overwhelmed by the doubts and anxieties of life, people with vitality to gamble on their future, whatever the odds". Sam C. Sarkesian MY REPLY: Do you really believe we have a better future under a confirmed ignoramus who is surrounded by some of the slimiest operators of the Marcos and Estrada regimes? wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww DearTony. I have had respect for you and your opinions over the years. But I have noted that you have called FPJ an ignoramous. Merely having to quit school before finishing high school does not qualify a person to be an ignoramous. You and I have superior academic credentials compared to FPJ but that does not entitle us to call him names. He has run a successful business for many years , FPJ Productions. Other equally famous or good looking actors and actresses have tried to do the same and many have lost their shirts. Either FPJ has some smarts or is just too lucky in business. Either trait could possibly help the country. I like his answer to how to reverse the slide of the peso. Magtrabajo nang magtrabajo. I think that there is ultimate wisdom in that answer. Pretty good for a high school drop out without Central Bank experience. Does Governor Buenaventura or Gloria who has a Ph D in Economics have a better answer? FPJ is also ridiculed for frequently saying that he will study the matter or that he will consult the people. That is dear to my systems analyst discipline. In systems analysis we do not start with preconceived solutions. We study the problem first, study alternatives. And then make our recommendations. Hey expecting a candidate to come up with instant answers is really stupid. Perhaps FPJ is not the stupid one, those who laugh at him are. If Parayno and Gloria only consulted those concerned, borrowers would not have suffered paying 10% VAT on interest only to see it ending up with the banks rather than with BIR( What would you call that? This is an advanced tip. GMA may yet be upset tomorrow. Brother Eddie is attracting most of our friends in the upper middle class intellectual circles. That is coming from GMA and Roco. While surprise, surprise the JIL flock has been told to vote FPJ! Cheers, Mano Alcuaz, [email protected] May 09, 2004 MY REPLY. I never said that FPJ was an ignoramus because he did not finish high school. You did. I have called him an ignoramus because, from what I have read in the newspapers and seen on television, FPJ does not know anything about anything except movie-making. Certainly nothing about economics, history, international relations, political science, government, finance, administration or management, which anyone aspiring to be president of any country should manifest in order to inspire confidence in his or her leadership. No wonder he does not speak longer than five or seven minutes even in his own rallies. No wonder he does not want to be interviewed at length and in depth. No wonder he does not want to engage his rivals in debates. He has nothing to say. And he has nothing to say because he does not know anything except movie-making. I am surprised that someone of your apparent education finds some kind of profound wisdom in FPJ�s answer of Magtrabajo nang magtrabajo to the question of how to arrest the peso�s slide. That is just a variation of his other stock answer to other questions: Pag-aaralan natin. Do you also find profound wisdom in that? If John Kerry or George W. Bush or Vladimir Putin or Atal Bahari Vajpayee or Yoshihiro Koizumi or Jacques Chirac or Tony Blair were to give similar answers to similar questions, their electorates would not take them seriously. Or were you just trying to be sarcastic? And surprise, surprise, the JIL does not have seven million members, not even two million. wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww . In a message dated 5/9/2004 3:43:20 AM Eastern Daylight Time, [email protected] writes: But I believe in scientific surveys, and I personally know Mahar Mangahas of the Social Weather Stations (SWS) and Pepe Miranda of Pulse Asia, and I have complete trust in their impartiality and professionalism to give the public a reasonably accurate snap shot of voter preferences as those preferences have evolved over a period of time, with no ideological or other biases to color their findings. Mr Abaya Would you still believe in scientific surveys if they were conducted by someone other that your friends? I was reading an article from The Filipino Express, May 10-16 2004 edition. The article is titled, "Another witness surfaces to reveal survey manipulation." This article documents the alleged use of tailored surveys by the SWS and Pulse Asia. Perhaps, your friends, Mahar Mangahas and Pepe Miranda can shed some truth or accuracy of the article. If you need a copy of the article, please contact Ricky at [email protected] or [email protected] Surveys are like statistics. They can be misused or manipulated. [email protected] May 10, 2004 MY REPLY. Would I still �believe in scientific surveys if they were conducted by someone other than your friends?� Yes, if they were conducted by organizations who have an established reputation for reliability and professionalism. I believe in the surveys conducted in the US by the Gallup Poll, the CNN-Time-Warner Poll, the Yankovich Poll, etc even though I do not know their CEOs personally. We are not discussing here whether surveys can be misused or manipulated, but whether scientific surveys are accurate or not. Certainly the results of the May 10 elections, so far, show that the SWS and Pulse Asia surveys were quite accurate. But, of course, if you do not accept that the tabulations of Namfrel are honest, then we have no basis to discuss the accuracy of those surveys. wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww . Dear Mr. Abaya, Thank you for including me in your mail list. I really enjoy reading your article. With regards this last article, I think you forgot to consider that the latest SWS and Pulse Asia surveys were done before the endorsement of the INK, El Shaddai, JMC, Aglipay and whatever. All combined, these endorsements could bring another 3-5 million votes. In fact, some of voters belonging to these religious groups could very well be part of the undecided who were waiting for their religious leaders to tell them who to vote. The machinery too has not been factored in. On election day, the workings of the machinery will come in. And GMA certainly has an overwhelming edge here. So another surprise that could take place during May 10, could be that GMA would be able to capture more than 40$ of the entire voting population. Thanks and more power. Bobby Tordesillas, [email protected] May 10, 2004 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww I think the only good and a bit flattering thing about the surveys is that Filipinos still resounding reject extremism (Lacson, essentially) and mileniarism ("Brother", what's the bugger's name? I say this in comparison with France where La Pen polled 17% in the first round. And the masa-sally of Poe has been repulsed. Ross Tipon, [email protected] May 10, 2004 OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO |