 |
 |
| ON THE OTHER HAND |
| Israel �s Iraq Attack
By Antonio C. Abaya Written Jan. 16, 2007 For the Standard Today, January 18 issue One day in June 1981, eight Lockheed F-16 Fighting Falcons of the Israeli Air force, carrying twice the normal bomb weight for this type of aircraft, took off from a military airfield in the then Israeli-occupied Sinai Desert and headed for Iraq, through Jordanian and Saudi air space, to bomb the nuclear reactor of Saddam Hussein at Osirak, near Baghdad. In the light of current speculations that Israel is now preparing, with active US help, to bomb the nuclear facilities of Iran , it helps to compare the rationale then with the rationale now, and to compare the geopolitical environment then with the geopolitical environment now. My thanks to former Interior and Local Government Secretary Raffy Alunan for forwarding to me a 44-minute video documentary from The Military Channel titled �Raid on the Reactor.� The contract for the construction of and the equipment for the Osirak reactor was awarded to a French company in 1975.The French sweetened the deal with a $200 million grant to Iraq , which Saddam Hussein used to buy Dassault Mirage jets for the Iraqi Air Force and 8,000 Renault automobiles. Then, as now, the construction of the Osirak nuclear reactor was promoted as strictly for the peaceful generation of electric power, a not-so-credible rationale for a country that is literally floating on a sea of oil. Not by coincidence, Iran in 2006-07 also insists that its nuclear program is for purely peaceful purposes. Iran and Iraq hold the biggest and the next biggest, respectively, known reserves of oil. Needless to say, the Israeli government under Prime Minister Menachem Begin was not swayed by this protestation of peaceful intentions and was convinced instead by their own instinct for survival, reinforced by a slip in a Baghdad newspaper that the nuclear reactor was actually meant to �neutralize Israel .� (As if to defiantly belie its own protestations of peaceful intents, Iraq started the construction of Osirak on the anniversary of the day in 586 BC when King Nebuchadnezzar of Babylon started its war on the Israelites, Babylon is in present-day Iraq . Curiously, it became part of the Persian Empire [the historical antecedent of Iran ] in 539 BC.) Similarly, few believe in the peaceful protestations of Iran , especially when viewed side by side with the repeated threats of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to �wipe Israel off the map.� So in 1978 Prime Minister Begin approved the drafting of top secret operational plans to bomb the Osirak nuclear reactor. This plan, called Operation Opera, established the red line that the military option would be resorted to only if and when all diplomatic and political options were exhausted. A totally unexpected development in 1979 had a curious and, for the Israelis, fortuitous consequence. In 1979, the Islamic Revolution of the Ayatollah Khomeini overthrew the Shah of Iran, and 76 Lockheed F-16s which the Shah had ordered were not delivered to the now anti-American government in Tehran . They were instead sold to the Israeli government, which proceeded to use eight of them to bomb Osirak in 1981. In 1980, when the reactor equipment was about to be shipped from a French Mediterranean port, the Mossad planted explosives at the docks, but they failed to destroy the reactor. In June of that year, Mossad agents tried to entice, with money and sex, an Egyptian nuclear scientist based in France and involved with the Osirak reactor, to work for them. He refused. One quiet evening, while he was billeted at the Hotel Meridien in Paris , he heard a knock on his door. When he opened it, some men barged into his room and slit his throat. A prostitute who happened to be nearby when this occurred was later run over by a black Mercedes Benz and died before she could tell the police what she had witnessed in the hotel. At 1601 hours of June 1, 1981 , the eight F-16s took off from their airfield in the Sinai Desert and headed for Iraq via Jordanian and Saudi air space, obviously without the permission of those two countries. They maintained radio silence and flew at an altitude of 100 feet or 35 meters, to avoid being detected by radar. At this point, after about 60% of the narrative, Raffy�s forwarded video transmission seems to have been truncated. I went directly to the URL, but could not get a smooth enough play of the video to maintain my interest. Readers who want to try can go directly to: http:/video.google.com/videoplay?docid=229579249224502914 The Israeli raid on Osirak in 1981 seems to have done a good job of eliminating Iraq as a potential nuclear power. US and British reports that Iraq was purchasing uranium yellow cake from the African country of Niger turned out to false, like that about weapons of mass destruction, circulated merely to justify the pre-ordained invasion of Iraq. Diligent searches by both UN and US weapons inspectors failed to produce any evidence that Iraq had resurrected its nuclear ambitions after Osirak. In 2006, any plan to bomb Iran �s nuclear facilities would have to cope with the fact that these facilities are spread out in several locations, not in just one, as in Osirak. Furthermore, some of them are said to be located underground, under 70 feet of concrete and rocks, not standing out prominently in the open, as in Osirak. On the other hand, just like Saddam Hussein in 1981, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in 2007 will not get much more than words of sympathy, if that, from the rest of the world if and when his nuclear facilities are attacked. In 1981, Iraq was armed by the Soviet Union , but the Soviets did not strike back at Israel when their client was defanged by the Israelis. In 2007, Iran enjoys political and technical support from Russia and China , but neither country would be foolish enough to threaten military retaliation against Israel and/or the US if Iran is attacked. In 2007, the battle will be for the hearts and minds. The hearts and minds of the American public. The hearts and minds of the Arab Street . President Ahamdinejad is his own worst enemy. By declaring � not once, but several times � that he wanted Israel wiped off the map, he has guaranteed that American public opinion will support the neo-cons if and when the US military join hands with the Israelis in the bombing of Iran�s nuclear facilities. As far as I know, there has been no public opinion poll on this issue yet, but my gut feel is that American public opinion will support a bombing operation against Iran �s nuclear facilities, as long as it does not involve the deployment of ground troops or the fighting of a ground war. As for the Arab Street, Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice�s ongoing tour of Egypt, Gaza, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Kuwait (where she will meet with other Arab leaders) may be meant to solicit (Sunni) Arab acquiescence � not necessarily public support � for a pre-emptive strike against, in the memorable farewell words of Saddam Hussein, those �hateful, devil-worshipping Persians!� President Ahmadinejad is trying to play tit-for-tat by touring Venezuela , Ecuador and Nicaragua , to cultivate anti-American feelings rife in Latin America . Other than possibly getting an agreement from President Hugo Chavez to withhold Venezuela �s oil from the US in the event that Iran is attacked, Ahmadinejad has no aces up his sleeve, and there is no symmetry with Condi�s tour. Reacting to my article Is Israel Doomed?, Gareth Smyth, Financial Times correspondent in Tehran emailed hat �You make many very good points in this piece�Many in Tehran are starting to think things are getting towards crunch-time�.� ***** OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO Reactions to � Israel�s Iraq Attack� Kindly arrange for Israel to bomb Iran 's nuclear facility. With the Israelites, we can postpone the world's doom. If the Iranians hold nuclear sway, we are in danger of imminent doom. Rex Lorres, [email protected], Jan. 19, 2007 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Tony, Very interesting. This is an age-old feud that will last till kingdom come. I really doubt if there is enough goodwill and sincerity among all players to be able to carve out a political solution Regards Cesar Sarino, [email protected], Jan. 20, 2007 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Dear Antonio, please try and find time to read this. Doug Adam, [email protected], , Jan. 20, 2007 Iran's President Wants Israel Wiped Off The Map ? There have been many whopping lies told in relation to the Middle East, not the least of them that the U.S. is not interested in the Oil there, but the biggest lie that is now being propagated, as a softening up for a war on Iran, is that Ahmadinejad, the Iranian President said "Israel should be wiped of the map" This distortion was easily perpetrated by the omission of one word in the statement in question, i.e. the word REGIME. The statement translated by disinterested interpreters is: - "The present Israeli REGIME should be wiped off the map like were the former Communist REGIME in U.S.S.R. the REGIME of the Shah in Iran and the REGIME of Saddam Hussein in Iraq.�. The statement viewed in its true context, without the deletion of the word � REGIME� cannot be seen as threat directed at the people in Israel but a view that it is not impossible for the present Israeli Zionist governing REGIME to be changed. This can be seen as a forlorn hope of Ahmadinejad not as a call to action. Notwithstanding this it is unfortunate that a better choice of words, not open to distortion, had been used that gave those spoiling for war, the excuse they were looking for to attack this poor third world country unfortunately put in danger because it sits on a vast sea of oil. Ahmadinejad is a nut no better than Bush as far as his eloquence and diplomacy is concerned; it is unfortunate that Ahmadinejad should have been given the platform of the Presidency to utter his inane outbursts. Unlike Bush however Ahmadinejad has no administrative power, this is in the hands of the Supreme Ayatollah who is non-confrontational. Even so Ahmadinejad is in danger of having his platform removed from under his feet by the Iranian people of all persuasions, left right, secular and religious who apparently are fed up of grandstanding. The only thing that might save Ahmadinejad is the actual physical aggressive posture Bush has adopted by placing two nuclear armed carrier battle fleets off Iran �s coast in the Iranian Gulf . Of course the statements of the non confrontational Supreme Ayatollah, the real power in Iran , are not aired because these do not serve the war plans of the Bush war cabal. Doug Adam, Jan. 20, 2007 Credentials, white English, ex Christian leftist atheist For a correct translation of the Ahmadinejad statement go to <http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article12790.htm> MY REPLY. I have read the above and similar tracts, and I have also had the pleasure of dining with the Iranian Ambassador to the Philippines . He explained to me that what President Ahmadinejad meant was that the Israeli government in Tel Aviv should be �wiped out� with an election in which the Palestinians, who outnumber the Jews, would participate. Assuming that is true, why does he not say exactly that? I think I know why. Mr. A would not be able to whip up any crowd to a frenzy with a slogan that says: Wipe out the Israeli government with elections in which the Palestinians take part!� But millions of Iranians and Arabs and other Muslims would go wild with �Wipe Israel off the map!� Mr. A is talking to the Muslim Street , not to the liberals in the West. In general, I view the utterances of Muslim militants with the same cynicism and skepticism that I view the pronouncements of American neo-cons. wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Dear Antonio, Thanks again, really, thank you very much for you have hit the Ahmadinejad question nail on the head, and driven it in with a single blow ! I am an atheist but if I were religious I would say "Thank God I found you, Antonio�. I have just watched a documentary on Iran where a 16 year girl who had been raped was hung from a crane in a public square. My Filipino wife who once worked in Saudi Arabia , in response to the program, said 'Yes, they are very strict there' I almost blew an artery, so I am in a very bad frame of mind at the moment in relation to Islam. If Ahmadinejad meant a peaceful removal of the Zionist regime in Palestine , he could have said just that, period. He also has flirted with the Holocaust deniers and then he tried to back pedal again on that. He does no service to the peace movement in the world especially in the so called "Western World" I would like to hear your views on the present military threat against Iran by the U.S. and Israel if you could give a dissertation on that topic. Looking forward to more of your incisive posts. Once again, more power to your elbow, Warmest of regards Doug Adam, Jan. 21, 2007 Anglo/Irish, ex Christian atheist wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww It boils down to this, Tony. First, secure the oil. Next, keep them secured. This is what this shit's all about. Anything else would come under, I am being redundant now, BULSHIT! Thanx for the copy of your column. More power, bro! Vernon Dula, [email protected], Jan. 20, 2007 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Dear Mr. Abaya' From my recollection of that Readers Digest article in the 1980's concerning the Israeli's raid on the Osirak nuclear reactor in Iraq, here are some facts I'd like to share with you: The raid was participated in by three types of aircraft alongside their combat roles - F4 Phantom (mfr. Mcdonnel Douglas) - to neutralize/bomb enemy radar if the need arises. F15 Eagle (mfr. Lockheed) - to engage any enemy interceptor. F16 Falcon (mfr. General Dynamics) - to deliver the smart bombs in destroying the reactor. There were no French-made jets, particularly the Mirage, involved as mentioned in your earlier column, On The Other Hand. You also mentioned the flying altitude at 100 ft., certainly not equal to 5 meters which is just above 16 feet. I hope you may want to rectify certain portions in your column. Regards. Carlito Soriano, [email protected], Jan 20, 2007 MY REPLY. If you will re-read my article, you will note that the Mirage jets that I mentioned were acquired by Saddam Hussein�s Iraq , not by Israel .. And the flying altitude of 100 feet is equivalent to 35 meters, not 5 (which was a typo that has been corrected.) In general, I would trust the Military Channel more than the Reader�s Digest. wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww The article argues that the US , Israel or both can get away with attacking Iran 's nuclear facilities with handsome gains. Probably it will appear to be so in the very short-term as in the Iraq shock and and awe campaign. Still think, however, that such a military campaign would be a net loss to the US in the longer-term. Chances are that it won't be constructive towards US primary objectives in the Middle East and Central Asia unless the campaign would result into a pro-US government in Iran. (Which, I wrote, is a political expectation, especially after the defeat of Mr. Ahmadinejad�s allies in the local elections last Dec. 20. ACA) Nuclear weapons in the hands of third rate countries do not threaten major powers; neither are they likely to be used against others because it would mean the destruction of the user country. (Iran is no threat to the US. But it is a threat to Israel, especially in the light of repeated pronouncements from Mr. A to �wipe Israel off the map.� In US domestic politics, the security of Israel is a bi-partisan concern. ACA) At most nuclear weapons would constrain to an extent what an imperial power or envious neighbors could do and provide an aura of power for its possessor. That's about all. Nuclear weapons have already proliferated in North Korea , Pakistan , India , and Israel . Proliferation would continue. The world would have to learn to live with it. If the Iranian gov't can't be replaced by a pro-US gov't, US prospects of enhancing control of the Middle East and Central Asia would be pushed back farther. The Islamic world would redouble its resistance to everything American and Israeli. True the Saudi King and the emirs would be pleased but they could be overthrown. Furthermore, world oil prices would probably stay at plateau levels for quite a while. A world recession which is probably coming anyway would be intensified. American public support for the hawks would deteriorate further. Right now, the US dollar index is hovering over a major support level of 80 points--a historic and important level as the dollar has never crashed below it before. The speculation is that if this support breaks, it could speed up tremendously the demise of dollar hegemony in the world. Dollar hegemony is what enables the US to live beyond its means and conduct foreign wars. Imagine what would happen if the US has to earn euros, gold, Dmarks or yen to import needed goods and services. An Iranian military campaign would in all probability send the dollar into a tailspin. This is potentially a big net loss for the US . Maybe Israel would gain time. The only clear winners would be the US armament industry, Russia and China . Iran would have to be rearmed. Tony Anciano, [email protected], Jan. 20, 2007 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Hi Tony. I encountered the same problem at the start until it was pointed out to me that I had to download the Google video player first. After that I proceeded to download the video. The buffering took about half a day. Amazing how Israel goes to great lengths to protect itself and save its people. It is a country steeled by fire symbolized by Masada and Yad Vashem that lives and dies by its values. I wish we could say the same about ours. The catharses our country faced in the last hundred years (the wars of liberation against Spain, the U.S., Japan and dictatorship) produced a weak state and soft society instead of the other way around. We went the wrong way. What will it take for us to make that crucial U-turn from a failing nation to an achieving one? I believe another great catharsis (natural disaster or man-made agony) will be needed to trigger another opportunity for genuine transformation, from which shall emerge from the ash heap a strong will, good minds, stout hearts and unity in spirit with our Creator in pursuit of the common good. All the best, Raffy Alunan, [email protected], Jan. 22, 2007 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww I think we're all getting into the BIG ONE sooner than we think. The Israelis are not taking the statement of President Ahmadinehjad sitting down. From my alternative sources, two Israeli airforce squadrons are already doing their practice bombing runs before swooping down the supposedly nuclear facilities of Iran . Of course this is all in the name of global oil control. Unfortunately this would embroil the entire region into this fracas. Majority of the Muslims in the area are Shiite. And I shudder to think the oncoming scenario. Ahmadinejad is willing to launch a missile against these so called white devils. And the EU or the UN peacekeeping forces will all be embroiled, as they say, when the shit hits the fan. And what about Syria and Lebanon . I'm sure they have had enough of Israeli's aggressions. And that's the start of WW111. Lord have mercy. Teddyboy Tagle, [email protected], Jan 22, 2007 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Hi again Tony. Have you already downloaded the Google video player to avoid truncation? I was able to see the documentary in its entirety after I did. Like Entebbe, the 6 Day War and the Yom Kippur counter strike, this tale captures the imagination and swells the heart. As far as Iran is concerned, I would like to think that the Iranian people are captives of a radical regime whose behavior resurrects memories about that country's history of belligerence. War is bound to befall them even as many, perhaps the majority, disagree with their present leaders' publicized avowals to wipe Israel off the face of the earth. How Israel will protect itself - either alone or with help from the West - remains to be seen. The U.S. has a score to settle with Iran and I expect it to help Israel defend its right to co-exist with the rest of humanity. This tension is an opportunity for Israel and the U.S. to strengthen ties with the Sunnis of Saudi Arabia, the Gulf States, Jordan, Libya, Egypt and Lebanon; ideally, after the inevitable state of Palestine makes peace with Israel. Then again, appointments with destiny have their unique timing that is difficult to divine. Let's just hope that everyone decides to settle their differences reasonably and peacefully. I'm afraid that if the world powers cannot, then Heaven will decide as a last resort what is best for the common good of humanity. That, however, is usually dispensed in apocalyptic proportions. Best regards, Raffy Alunan, [email protected], Jan. 22, 2007 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Iran: Oil, Bomb and the Ghost of Kermit During the Cold War, Iran was important not only because of its oil but also of its strategic location. As a key perimeter in the containment policy of the United States , it sat intrusively at the southern tip of the Soviet Union . On the other hand, the Strait of Hormuz situated south of the Iranian coast was a major access route for petroleum shipping to the Indian Ocean and into international waters. It was a vital artery for Middle Eastern oil that fuelled post-war capitalism of Western economies. It still is today. Next to Saudi Arabia , Iran holds the second largest reserves of crude and natural gas in the world. Since the discovery of virgin oil fields in 2003, its reserves have grown to almost 20 billion tons, which account for 13 percent of the total global oil stash; while Iranian gas is estimated to be more than 15 percent of the world's natural gas. With virtually limitless fossil fuel resource to power the whole continent of Africa , it would be ludicrous to believe that Tehran is primarily intent to build nuclear capability for alternative energy use that it evidently does not need. While not yet considered a pariah state in the same way North Korea is perceived to be, Iran is already experiencing the heat of international condemnation when Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad declared that Israel should be "wiped off the map." As if this was not enough, irritating the traditionally unflappable International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) with Tehran 's defiance to observe its responsibilities under the Non-Proliferation Treaty to open its nuclear program to inspection could very well be considered a self-inflicted coup de grace upon itself. At the heart of these seemingly strange antics, there is a certain cogency that can be read in Tehran's present behavior and it is one of desperation and insecurity � desperation to reach out to the world from which it has intentionally alienated itself since 1979; and insecurity to preserve what the cleric-dominated establishment sees as puritanical gains of the Islamic Revolution in a country lodged at the center of an international security regime profoundly shaped by the US-led war on terrorism, and the rising discontent within the Iranian society itself. There are three (3) main motivations in Tehran 's current bold attitude in its nuclear quest: (1) "the specter of Kermit"; (2) US policy of regime change; and (3) Israel 's nuclear weapons program. If there is one man who stills haunts the collective psyche of Iran like a ghost of its vassal past, it is Kermit Roosevelt, Jr. Roosevelt was a grandson of United States President Theodore Roosevelt and scion from one of America 's politically influential families. As a covert officer in the Near East Division of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) in Tehran in the early 1950s, he planned and undertook one of the riskiest clandestine operations in the history of the Cold War. The CIA-directed Operation AJAX aimed to topple the Mossadegh government and install a West-friendly regime under Muhammad Reza Shah Pahlavi. The flirtation of the fiercely nationalist but democratically elected Muhammad Mossadegh with the Soviet Union and the local communist party Tudeh had touched an anxious chord in Washington and London , aggravated further by the Tehran 's nationalization of the highly profitable Anglo-Iranian Oil Company in 1951. By August of 1953, after the underhanded machination of the CIA that involved fragmenting the military, financing series of violent protests and propagating black propaganda, the Mossadegh government fell. Operation AJAX was deemed a roaring success in Washington and would later serve as the template for succeeding US-backed covert interventions in countries such as Guatemala and Chile . However, the perceived brazenness of the plot had produced in the minds of the Iranian people a latent indignation against and distrust of the West particularly the United States . This anger would later erupt twenty-six years hence with the revolution of 1979. The US-sponsored manipulation of Tehran 's politics would be paid in kind with the hostage of 53 Americans and Iran 's support for proxy militias and jihadist groups notably Hizballah in Lebanon (internationally regarded as the most successful extremist network) and the Badr Brigade in Iraq . The ghost of Kermit Roosevelt thus remains as a painful reminder of Tehran 's vulnerabilities to foreign interference, which, through the country's current attempt to be a nuclear-capable state, the ruling Shiite clerics want to shield. The suspicion of Iran is only heightened by the collapse of the Taliban regime under US military firepower in neighboring Afghanistan in 2001 and the invasion of Tehran 's traditional rival Iraq in 2003. While Tehran has certainly profited politically with the removal of Saddam Hussein and the Sunni-dominated Baathist regime, the US policy of regime transformation is a Damoclean sword precariously suspended upon the heads of the ruling clerics, especially that Iran has been tagged by US President George W Bush as part of the "axis of evil." Hinged on the Kantian "democratic peace" thesis that democracies are unlikely to go to war against one another, the Bush Administration's policy of democracy promotion daringly envisions the end of "tyranny" in the world through the outright use of punitive military options, or the employment of political, economic and diplomatic sanctions to pressure a government to thread the democratic path. Strangely, though, before the nuclear stalemate became a full-blown crisis that it is now, there have been telling signs that Iran was a constructive factor by default in the war on terror and the democratic promotion project by the United States . For one, US nemesis Al-Qaeda is dominated by fundamentalist, Sunni fanatics with a grudge against Shiites. In fact, by present indications such as the very public derision of Al-Qaeda leader in Iraq Abu Musab al-Zarqawi of Iraqi Shiites as "rejectionists" and "collaborationists", there is hardly any evidence to suspect that Iran is assisting Al-Qaeda operationally in Iraq or elsewhere. Besides, Tehran more than any other Middle Eastern country would benefit in the success of the new Iraqi government mainly because of the sheer number of the voting Shiite majority upon which, reportedly, Iran has great influence over. So the question to ask is what is now haunting Iran . Military threat has never really rattled Tehran in the past as it is now primarily because it has fairly sophisticated military machinery. Despite the revelation of veteran journalist Seymour Hersh in the April 17 issue of the New Yorker about the planning of the Pentagon for possible preemptive air strikes on selected facilities in Iran and the resurgent activities by US intelligence operatives to liaise with minority groups in the country such as the Azeris, Baluchis and Kurds for target mapping operations, there has been hardly any denunciation issued by the usually vitriolic Ahmadinejad. All told, it is a little noted development in the policy shift of Washington that has worried Tehran more than any threat of a military invasion. In her February 15 testimony before the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee, State Secretary Condoleezza Rice has revealed a shift in US policy over Iran with the $85 million program that would fund independent radio and television, sponsor pro-democracy groups and support cultural exchanges and educational fellowships. The present budget is an exponential increase from last year's reported funding of $3.5 million. Previously, the United States favored isolating and sanctioning the theocratic regime than constructively engaging it. This only goes to show that indeed among enemies, there is little comfort in good deeds than in bad. This policy is worrisome essentially because there is real discontent in Iranian society. Maverick strategist Edward Luttwak mentions about the widespread corruption in government that, in his assessment, surpasses the degree and depth of those committed by family and cronies of the Shah. Anti-clericalism is high and prevalent, and by putting money into it is like pouring gasoline into the fire. This new policy also refreshes the memory of past clandestine intervention in Iranian politics � a story that remains as a bogeyman's tale that is repeatedly being told from one generation to the next, inspiring Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini to coin the moniker "Great Satan" to describe the US and its manipulative ways. And then there is Israel , the only country in the Middle East possessing nuclear weapons (sources are also pointing to Egypt as another potential nuclear state). Despite the whistle-blowing of Mordechai Vanunu in 1986 confirming the long-suspected existence of nukes in the Jewish state, Israeli nuclear weapons program remains as a dirty little secret in the international community, much like an adulterous relation that is known to everyone but never really talked about in the open. Started in the early 1950s with US, French and British assistance, Israel's nuclear program reportedly yielded its first warhead in 1968 and peaked at one time to more than 200. Since then, many Arab countries and Iran sought strategic parity by developing their own nuclear projects. But while Iran 's present conduct is very much motivated by Israel 's nuclear capabilities, there is doubt whether Tehran 's motivation is reciprocated by the necessary material capacity to really complete a deliverable nuclear bomb. In the final analysis, Tehran 's unsatisfactory transparency on its centrifuge activities and its indulgent brinkmanship are natural cause for alarm. The international community should accordingly respond as appropriate to put across the message that such behavior of a sovereign state is unacceptable. But the West's unwillingness to vicariously put themselves in the shoes of the Iranians and understand where they are coming from is equally appalling as well, especially if there is a preordained plan waiting to be carried out inspired by a messianic vision of a Pax Americana. Common sense is then lost and gives way to unrestrained dogma. Further, the stalemate has also brought to the fore of public opinion the need for accountability from nuclear merchants and technological mercenaries like A.Q. Khan who profit financially from the spread of a military know-how whose sole purpose is destruction. But for all theatrics of the US and Iran, the current crisis has constructively put the spotlight back on the issue of non-proliferation and the need of a nuclear-free Middle East in a time when the war on terrorism has muted much of the debate on arms control and disarmament. It certainly proves as a test case for the world and its leaders to reconsider and step back from the uncertain precipice of threats and posturing that neither enhances collective global security or offers sustainable solution to the dangers of the unchecked spread of weapons of mass destruction. Allan Mendoza, [email protected], Jan. 19, 2007 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Reaction to �Minimum Wage as Weapon� ( Jan. 07, 2007) Dear Toni, You are perfectly right that the forthcoming Legislted Minimum Wage of Php125.00/day is an ultimate weapon, but not for Gloria. When passed and approved, 1. it will temporarily benefit the working people 2. with the law exempting or reducing the tax for the Minimum wage earners to at least 9% 3. more money will be used by the poor to buy consumer goods 4. with more money in circulation, the worst scenarios feared by Banko Sentral ng Pilipinas will happen- INFLATION, 5. Swooping-in again the excess money supply follows which will have an adverse effect on the economy, 6. with one strike of another MILENYO TYPE typhoon, coupled with eruption of some volcanoes 7. plus the political chaos made by political oppositions, when elections was rigged for the 2nd time this coming election 8. confusion among investors follows, and all previous economic gains of GMA will be wiped out, and the whole FILIPINO COMMUNITY WILL BE EVEN POORER THAN BEFORE, specially the Urban and Rural Poor, and the IP's! The opposition must support the move, for the Legislated Mnimum Wage Increase of P125.00. Who knows it could be the best way to topple GMA! Rodolfo Cada, [email protected], Jan. 19, 2007 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Reaction to �The Ermita Doctrine� ( Jan. 14, 2007 ) I cannot agree with you mor,e Tony. What is wrong with these people that they trade even their souls for the devil's enticements whose "debatable" temporary benefits last only til what, 2010?, but whose permanent damnation runs eternal ... I have served in government for the past 27 years ... more specifically in the AFP and I definitely knew Ermita then as having more semblance of honor than now. What is it that makes men "knowingly" take the road to perdition? To me, there is no substitute for doing what is right! Even if this hurts! We really should think less of ourselves. This life is not about us. It is about forgetting us for the greater good. Lt. Col. Dennis Acop, [email protected], Jan. 21, 2007 ) wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Thoughts on the Sulu Operations and Media It does not appear to be a fluke this time. The Armed Forces of the Philippines appears to have killed Jainal Sali also known as Abu Solaiman. We have been burned by many AFP announcements so much that there is a tendency for a wait and see before beleiving them. The body and the picture, however, are the ultimate proof. It appears that the planning and implementation of the current operation are working to perfection. It remains to be seen whether the AFP will be successful in getting Radulan Sahiron aka Commander Putol and Gumbahali Jumdail aka Doctor Abu. If those two leaders are captured or killed, then Sulu will certainly be cleansed of the remnants of the Abu Sayyaf Group. Philippine and foreign media banner Sulu as an Abu Sayyaf stronghold. Such is far from the truth. If Sulu is anyone's stronghold, it is that of the AFP and the local politicians. The AFP is all over the province with a tight grip on all events. The local politicians hold sway over their turfs and rarely will other armed groups or even the Abu Sayyaf engage them in a fight. The ASG has never fought, for instance, with the forces of Talipao Mayor Tambrin Tulawie or Patikul Mayor Ismunlatiph Suhuri even though they roam in their towns. So, they may be present in Sulu but the province is NOT their stronghold. Edilwasif Baddari, [email protected], Jan. 20, 2007 wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Dear Tony: With the U.S. disastrously bogged down in Iraq and apparently overcommitted and overstretched militarily all over the globe, the American people are in no mood to engage Iran militarily. The American people want the U.S. forces to get out of "sovereign" Iraq as quickly as reasonably possible. Note that the Baker-Hamilton Iraq Study Group has pointed out that the U.S. has to deal diplomatically with both Syria and Iran , and that this is one step which needs to be given top piority. If Israel makes the mistake of planning to preemptively take out Iran 's nuclear facilities in a surgical strike, it can only do so with the explicit go-ahead and support of the U.S. My sense, however, is that neither the White House nor the Congress will give Israel the go-signal and the support that it needs, whether covertly or openly. Top U.S. officials, including President Bush, are now all too mindful of the possibility that taking out Iran 's nuclear facilities can lead to serious unintended consequences. One of these is the possibility of a regional conflagration. The U.S. has learned a very valuable lesson in Iraq in terms of unintended consequences. Mariano Patalinjug, [email protected], Yonkers NY , Feb. 04, 2007 OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO |