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| ON THE OTHER HAND |
| Is It Abu Zedung They�re Eyeing? By Antonio C. Abaya February 7, 2002 The numbers do not make sense. Unless�� There are said to be 660 American trainers and advisers now on duty here, and this number will go up to more than a thousand in the next few weeks. And they will stay here for �from six months to one year�. How many Poles does it take to unscrew a light bulb? How many Americans would it take to wipe out the Abu Sayyaf? I would say, less than two hundred. How many Americans would it take to train Filipinos to wipe out the Abu Sayyaf? Probably even less. And they can do it in less than four weeks. So why are more than a thousand of them gathering here and staying for �from six months to one year�? Counting from January 2002, they will be here until anytime between July 2002 and January 2003. And note their postings. Only 160 are based in Basilan, which is really all it would take to wipe out the Abu Sayyaf. The more numerous hundreds are or will soon be in the Mactan area in Cebu and in Fort Magsaysay in Laur, Nueva Ecija, and, my guess, possibly in the Laguna-Batangas-Cavite area. What�s going on here? ***** Sometime in March last year, I was invited to a dinner in which the American guests of honor were identified as security consultants to the US House of Representatives. One of them spoke about a book titled �Unrestricted Warfare�, which purports to be an unauthorized publication detailing the strategies of the People�s Liberation Army (PLA) for controlling the countries around China. I think I read a review of this book in either Asiaweek or the Far Eastern Economic Review sometime in either 1999 or 2000, but it is not available from either amazon.com or barnesandnoble.com. And when I was in San Francisco last May, I looked for it in the major bookstores there, but without success. In a nutshell, said the American security consultant, one of the chosen strategies of the PLA is to corrupt the leaders of neighboring countries with drug money, or money from the trafficking of drugs. The Philippines under Joseph Estrada seems to have been chosen as pilot for this strategy. Long before Erap was removed from Malacanang, I had read reports that two or three of the many Chinese who hovered around Erap had direct connections to official Beijing. Certainly, no previous Philippine president had ever surrounded himself with so many Chinese. Kaya pala, said a friend of mine in military intelligence, whenever they investigated the background of drug traffickers that they had nabbed, they often ran into the names of �PLA generals and their wives.� To this day, or as recently as one month ago, the police keep on arresting Chinese nationals involved in drug trafficking who speak neither English nor Pilipino, who seem to have been smuggled in together with the merchandise that they spread. ***** So what has this got to do with the 660, soon to be more than a thousand, American trainers and advisers who have been or will soon be posted in strategic parts of the country and who will be staying here up to, possibly, January 2003? Well, May 1, 2002 is the first anniversary of Edsa Tres, the insurrection staged by the Pwet ng Masa mob to pave the way for an Erap Restoration. The Americans may have read their tea leaves and concluded that there is a strong probability that a repeat of May 1 will be seriously attempted, this time with a strong military component, to ensure better chances of success. Their presence in Fort Laur is especially significant. In September 1987, two weeks after the first failed coup attempt of Gringo Honasan, I was invited by then Vice-President Doy Laurel to accompany him on a tour of military camps all over the country. We started on a Saturday, taking in the camps in Metro Manila: Villamor Air Base and Fort Bonifacio. On Sunday, Camp Diwa in Bicutan, Camp Crame and Camp Aguinaldo On Monday, a pair of Huey helicopters brought us to Camp Olivas in Pampanga and Fort Laur in Nueva Ecija. It was in Fort Laur where anti-government feelings were extremely high. It was and probably still is where non-PMA officer-candidates underwent special training for higher positions. The officer-candidates loudly cheered Laurel, banging their wide desks (used for map-reading and other, more cerebral exercises) with their fists. A delegation from them read a manifesto calling on President Aquino to resign and for Laurel to take over, which was greeted with more wild cheering and desk-banging. I wrote in my BusinessWorld column, which came out the following Wednesday, that there was widespread discontent among the troops and cautioned President Aquino that if she did not make changes in her Cabinet soon, she faced a military mutiny of epic proportions. In the meantime, our party proceeded by private jet to Mactan Air Base in Cebu (another hotbed of discontent then) and Edwin Andrews Air Base in Zamboanga City, thence on Friday to Camp Evangelista in Cagayan de Oro City, and finally to the military camp (whose name escapes me) in Davao City. It was while Laurel was speaking before the officers in Davao that President Aquino called to inform him that she was firing her entire Cabinet, including Laurel (who was concurrent Foreign Affairs Secretary then). ***** I mention this incident to underline my hunch that if there is going to be an active recruitment of military mercenaries to backstop a repeat of May 1, it is going to be in Fort Laur (and Mactan), as it was in Gringo�s second failed coup attempt in December 1989. My reading is that the Americans probably see the same probability, which is why they are posting several hundred of their trainers there, not just to actually give much needed training to Filipino soldiers, but also to forestall or discourage any attempt to recruit mercenaries for Edsa Tres Part 2. And they are taking these precautions not because they are particularly fond of President Arroyo and us quarrelsome Filipinos either, but because they are wary of the Chinese, whom many American strategic thinkers consider to be their country�s next strategic enemy, after the al-Qaeda high priests (and their Abu Sayyaf acolytes) are wiped out. ***** Because of his Chinese connections, the Americans do not trust Erap or, by extension, his designated successor, Panfilo Lacson. After Chavit Singson blew the whistle on Erap in October 2000 and Lacson�s presidential ambitions were thus shattered by Erap�s impending political demise, Lacson flew to Washington DC in December, in an effort to salvage his presidential future. It was rumored here that Lacson tried to sell himself to the Americans as an alternative to both Erap (whose Chinese connection he is said to have confirmed) and Gloria (whom he accused of playing footsie with the communists). Lacson has denied this, saying, variously, that he was just visiting his family, or that he went to accept an award from an industrial security organization, or that he was going to an accept a $26 million grant (highly unlikely) from the US House of Representatives for his PNP Foundation, his thinly disguised campaign vehicle for 2004. But it was confirmed by that American security consultant in that March dinner: it was to them, he claimed, that Lacson tried to sell himself as the next Philippine president . ***** This article appeared in the February 25, 2002 issue of the Philippine Weekly Graphic magazine. |